[農場] Prospect A to Z Day 16: Parker Markel

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間13年前 (2011/11/15 21:20)推噓4(4推 0噓 0→)

留言4則, 3人參與討論串1/1

Parker Markel was twice a late-round pick, selected by Detroit in the 32nd round out of high school in 2009 and again in the 39th round by the Rays in 2010, when he signed from Yavapai Junior College in Arizona. He was unheralded, as 30-something-round picks are, with inconsistent scouting reports. Here's BaseballAmerica's report on him from 2009: Parker Markel兩度在末幾輪被選中，2009年被底特律選中時還是高中生；最後決定就讀 Arizona的Yavapai Junior College，並在隔年在39輪被光芒選中。做為在30幾輪被選中的新秀，知道他的人並不多，球探評價也不太一致，以下是BA 2009年做的報告： Righthander Parker Markel had arm problems in the fall and was recovering from them this spring, so his stuff was down a little bit. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder still had enough stuff get results. He was throwing just 82 mph in a fall bullpen session, but his stuff came back as the spring progressed --he touched 91 mph--and he gets a lot of sink on his fastball from his three-quarters arm slot. He could add velocity as he matures. He has clean mechanics, the ball jumps out of his hand and he competes well. He'll head to Yavapai if he doesn't sign. 右投Parker Markel在秋季有過手臂問題，僅管已在春天康復，但投球素質還是有些許的下滑。6'3"，210磅的身材依舊有足夠的天分來改變這個結果。秋季的牛棚試訓直球只有 82 mph，但春季時球速已可達到91 mph，而且直球從四分之三的投球姿勢出手後，有明顯的下沉效果。成熟後球速還會更快。投球機制簡潔。如果沒被簽下，會前往Yavapai就讀。 And from 2010: Righthander Parker Markel can run his fastball up to 93 mph, but he's another guy who doesn't have a clean delivery and profiles as a middle reliever. 2010年的球探報告：右投Parker Markel直球來到93 mph，但作為中繼投手，失去了精簡的投球動作和原本擔當先發的能力。 Emphasis mine, for the obvious contradiction. But such are the ways when getting second- or third-hand information about a lesser-known guy like Markel. He signed in time to pitch 10.1 innings in the Gulf Coast, striking out 13 and walking three. Impressive, but hardly enough to call him a guy to watch. Assigned to Hudson Valley, ESPN's Keith Law happened to see one of his early-season starts and filed this report: 強調一下我對以上兩極化觀點的意見：對於很少被注意到的Markel來說，這些都是二手甚至是三手的資訊。去年趕在截止日前被簽下，在GCL投了10.1局，13次三振，保送3位打者，令人印象深刻，但還不足以讓他成為值得關注的新秀。在A-，ESPN的Keith Law碰巧看到他季初的一場比賽，並寫下了這份報告： A 39th-round pick out of Yavapai Junior College in Arizona, Markel was 92-97 mph early in the outing with a plus slider at 81-82 and a solid-average changeup with good arm speed at 81-84, although I think the low arm slot will still work against him somewhat against left-handed hitters. There's a lot of effort in his delivery without much use of his lower half, and as a result he didn't hold the velocity through his outing, working at 91-93 in the sixth with much less bite on the slider. He's a low-3/4 slinger who doesn't stride much or get over his front side well, and that -- plus the fact that he didn't hold his stuff -- makes him more likely to be a reliever. Even then, he's a reliever with two plus pitches, an average third pitch, and an aggressive approach making him a potential asset with late-game potential. 第39輪從Arizona的Yavapai Junior College選進的Markel具備92~97 mph的速球，水準之上，球速在81~82的滑球，平均的變速球球速則在81~84 mph附近，但我覺得低肩的投球動作會讓他在面對左打遭遇一些麻煩。對於出手姿勢還需要花很多時間修正，很少用到下半身的力量，因此無法在投球時維持穩定的球速。到第六局球速只剩91~93，滑球球速掉得更多。Markel是位低肩的四分之三側投，向前跨步小，無法長期維持投球的品質，看來很可能成為後援投手。即使作為後援投手，兩種水準以上的球路和平均水準的第三球路，加上積極的態度，有潛力在比賽末段扮演重要角色。 That raised some eyebrows for sure. A quality fastball, a plus slider, AND the makings of a usable change-up? Sign me up. Law noted some issues with his stamina, arm slot, and delivery, jiving with the earlier report, but that still sounds like a heck of a prospect. 有些事是可以確定的，高質量的速球，水準以上的滑球，一顆…也許可用的變速球？Law 也提到有關體力、出手姿勢、投球動作等問題。即使先前的報告都在胡扯，這位新秀還是有些比較麻煩的問題。 But Markel had kind of a weird overall statline. Perhaps because of his stamina issues, he was excellent in June and July before getting rocked in August and September. His ERA (3.14), BB/9 (3.6), and K/9 (6.9) are okay but nothing special. The strikeouts, in particular, don't match up with the scouting report. That's one half of the weird part, along with his low H/9 of 6.6. Guys with great stuff are generally able to post low hit rates in the minors because of their ability to get strikeouts or at least weak contact. Matt Moore's career rate, for example, is 6.1. But a rate that low generally comes with a high number of strikeouts, as logicially strikeouts cannot go for hits while batted balls can. Markel呈現出來的數據有點詭異。也許是因為體力問題，在八、九月崩盤之前，他在六、七月表現得很出色。ERA(3.14)，BB/9(3.6)，K/9(6.9)看起來還可以，但並不突出。尤其三振表現跟球探報告說的並不一致。這只是一部分。來看看H/9(6.6)。通常擁有不錯素質的投手能夠在小聯盟壓低被安打率，是因為有三振不錯能力，或至少讓對手揮空。例如 Matt Moore生涯H/9是6.1。因此被安打率的降低往往會轉換成高三振率，邏輯上來說，如果打者打得到球，就不會有三振了。 So I think in 2012 at least one of those stats is going the other way. If his strikeout rate stays low, expect the hits to climb. If the hit rate stays low, expect it to be because he's striking more people out. In 2010, Jake Thompson had a strikeout rate of 6.9 -- identical to Markel -- and a hit rate of 5.3, along with similar reports of quality stuff. In 2011, he got the double-whammy as his strikeout rate fell to 4.4 and the hit rate inflated to 8.9. 所以我認為明年至少有一項數據是會改變的。如果三振率保持低落，可預期被安打會提高；反之，維持低被安打率，那應該是由於三振了更多打者。2010年，Jake Thompson K/9 是6.9（和Markel相同），H/9則是5.3，兩者投球素質的評價相似。但'11年Thompson經歷了雙重的打擊，K/9掉到了4.4，H/9驟升到8.9。 I fear Markel may be of a similar profile. Reports on his stuff are great, and BA rated him the #3 prospect in the NY-PL, but the lack of strikeouts are a concern. Even though stats don't matter as much at that level, it seems players with his stuff would be able to overwhelm lower-level hitters. Markel didn't show that ability; even in June and July he was fanning under a batter per inning. 我擔心Markel會走上相似的道路。報告對於他的素質有很高的評價，BA也把他排在NY-PL 新秀的第三名，但缺少三振的現象是值得考量的。雖然這個層級的數據只能看出對低層級打者的壓制力，並不代表什麼，但Markel也沒有展現這部分的能力；即使在六、七月，他平均每局還是讓一位打者上壘。 But it's obviously possible that things go the other way, his strikeout rate bounces up as he continues to develop and a regression of his .248 BABIP doesn't sting too badly. He was able to clean up his delivery somewhat, but his late-season struggles, if they were due to fatigue, may be a sign pointing toward the bullpen. 2012 will be a telling season as he handles a a full-season workload. 但顯然上述發生的一切很可能會走向另一個方向，隨著Markel繼續成長，三振率會反彈，BABIP .248也還不算太糟。他稍微精簡了出手動作，但季末還是陷入掙扎，如果這是因為體力問題，也許可以做為轉往牛棚發展的訊號。當Markel明年的完整賽季結束，以上的問題與推論都可以得到解答。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244 ※ 編輯: csy1911 來自: 140.118.6.244 (11/15 21:26)