[選秀] 2013 Draft：Ryne Stanek

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間12年前 (2013/06/07 23:55)推噓4(4推 0噓 0→)

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29. TAMPA BAY RAYS PICK VALUE: $1,758,300 Ryne Stanek Drafted by: Tampa Bay Rays (No. 29 Overall) Position: RHP DOB: 7/26/1991 (Age: 21) Height/Weight: 6’4”/190 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R School: Arkansas Previously Drafted: 2010, Seattle Mariners (third round) Ranking：BA#13 ESPN#13 MLB.com#12 ------ From BaseballAmerica.com PICK ANALYSIS: This is a good value for the Rays. Not all scouts love Stanek’ s mechanics or arm action, but the Rays are exceptional at developing pitchers and should be able to tune him up. 選擇分析對光芒來說這個選擇很值得，不是所有的球探都喜歡Stanek的機制和揮臂動作，但光芒在培養投手方面有獨到的經驗，有能力讓他回到水準。 SCOUTING REPORT: The 99th overall pick in 2010, Stanek turned down the Mariners to attend Arkansas, and as a sophomore he helped the Razorbacks reach the College World Series, beating two-time defending champion South Carolina. He touched 97 mph with his fastball in that outing while mixing in both curveballs and sliders and a changeup here and there. He entered 2013 with high expectations and started slowly before finding his form. His fastball ranges from 92-98 mph, with long levers and twitchy athleticism that help him generate arm speed. His slider has real power in the 84-87 mph range when it’s right, and he has improved the feel for his changeup. Stanek doesn ’t have the prettiest mechanics as he has adjusted to try to throw more strikes, shortening his stride to help him stay on top of the ball. Scouts also believe he lacks deception because he doesn’t get consistent swings and misses with his fastball or slider despite elite velocity. He’s averaged less than 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings over more than 218 college innings. A tweak here or there could unlock Stanek’s frontline potential, but other scouts see him as a future closer or set-up man in the Daniel Bard mold. 球探報告 2010年第99順位被水手選中後，Stanek選擇去念大學，並在大二時幫助球隊擊敗兩度衛冕冠軍南卡大，贏得大學世界大賽。97 mph的快速球與曲球、滑球和變速球交互搭配是他取的出局數的主要武器。今年在高度期待中出賽，但在找回狀態前，他的起步相當緩慢。直球在 92-98 mph之間，長臂和運動能力幫助他順利的提高球速。狀況好的時候， 84-87 mph的滑球展現一定球威。同時變速球也慢慢在進步。Stanek的投球機制並不漂亮，為了投出更多好球已經做出調整，縮短步幅可以使他把球維持在高點。球探認為他沒辦法迷惑打者因為打者面對他的揮空率並不穩定，大學總計 218 局K/9甚至不到7.5。調整好的話有機會完全解放Stanek全部的潛力，但也有球探認為他會走Daniel Bard的模式成為終結者或佈局投手。 WHERE HE FITS: Stanek could slide into the back half of the Rays’ top 10 in next year’s Prospect Handbook. 球隊定位 Stanek會在光芒top 10 prospect後段找到一席之地。 ------ From minorleagueball.com Stanek was a very good prospect out of Blue Valley HS in Kansas. He was looked at by many as a 1st round or supplemental round talent. He was thin and projectable. He was a low 90’s thrower at that point but slid into the 3rd round of the 2010 draft. He decided not to sign and followed thru with his commitment to Arkansas. He had a solid but not a spectacular Freshman year and followed it up with a very good Sophomore season. He has pitched for Team USA each of the last two summers. Stanek從Kansas Blue Valley HS 畢業時是非常棒的新秀，那時的他體型削瘦潛力無窮，球速落在90 mph出頭，被認為會在第一輪或是補償順位中選，但直到第三輪才被選中，也因此他放棄簽約進入Arkansas。大一的他表現不錯但稱不上出色，但到了大二他的表現非常優異，過去兩個夏天，他都是國家隊的一員。 At 6’4" and 180 pounds, Stanek could easily add 15-20 pounds to his frame to help support the long season but I’m not sure he has the body type to be able to do it as he has a thin, lean build. 為了應付漫長的賽季，6'4"，180磅的Stanek身上需要增重15-20磅。僅管這個工作看似不算太難，但我不確定身形修長的他能不能做到。 His fastball is usually in the 92-94 range but I’ve seen it as low as 91 and up to 96. He gets very good movement on his fastball. It isn’t a dominant pitch but it is a very good fastball he can work off of to set up his other offerings. His breaking ball looked more like a curve in the past and wasn’t as good as the more recent slider he has been using. His arm slot is a ¾ delivery and the slider can be a plus pitch. It usually is in the 84-87 MPH range. His change is also in the 85-87 MPH range and has some fade. It is an average offering and it could improve. He has good command and incredible poise on the mound. 球速落在 92-94 mph，最低約91 mph，最高有96 mph，直球有很棒的位移，雖然無法完全宰制打者，但對建立其他球種的球威有很大的幫助。變化球以曲球為主，近期滑球的品質不若往昔，四分之三出手可以讓 84-87 mph滑球成為水準以上的球種。變速球在 85-87 mph之間，也有不錯的位移，可以成為平均水準的球種，同時有進步的空間。在投球丘上對球賽的掌握和沉穩的素質讓人難以置信。 He just looks like a reliable pitcher. He doesn’t have pinpoint command or any crazy knockout pitches. His presence on the mound makes me think he will play better than his stuff and his stuff is at the level of a solid #3 starter with potential to be a #2 if the change develops and I don’t see any reason it won’t. He won’t be an ace but he could be a very valuable arm for a team at the top of this draft. He will likely be a top 10 pick and should be considered at #1 overall. Stanek missed out on being a draft eligible sophomore last year by about a week. He would have been in the same tier as Kevin Gausman and may have even edged him out in my rankings. It would have been close. We will see how his Junior season goes. 缺乏完美的控球或是主宰全場的球種，目前看起來最多就是一位可被信賴的投手。在投手丘上的表現讓我相信他的素質可以進一步提高，目前的等級是穩定的三號先發，如果適當的農場養成能讓他潛力完全開發，我想不到Stanek無法成為二號先發的理由。不會是王牌，但對這屆選秀會上手握前段選秀權的球隊來說會是值得的選擇。順位可能會落在top 10，甚至是狀元人選。Stanek去年只以一週之差錯過大二選秀資格。和去年的 Kevin Gausman同等級，在我的排名裡甚至略勝一籌。就看他的大三球季如和發展了。 ------ From draysbay.com Stock: Projected in the middle of the first round by both ESPN and Baseball America 行情 ESPN和BA都預期在首輪中段被選中。 Analysis: Fans were clamoring for Stanek at #21 as he kept falling down the draft, but it took until #29 to get their wish. Michael previewed Stanek last month: 分析當Stanek順位直直落時，球迷吵著要在21順位選擇他，直到29順位球隊實現了球迷的期待。這是上個月的球探報告。 ****** Best Attribute: Stanek has the pitches of a top of the rotation starter, and a team that can help him improve his pitch selection could unlock his potential. 最佳工具 Stanek具備前段輪值的球種，球團可以幫助他在球種選擇上進步，完全解放他的潛能。 Analysis: It seems that every draft has a college pitcher in the first half of the first round who features plus stuff but is unable to get the expected convincing results. This year, that pitcher is Stanek. For his college career, Stanek has averaged around seven strikeout per nine innings, and he is often unable to dominate college lineups. This is despite his plus stuff, including a fastball that ranges from 92-98 mph, a big breaking slider, a nice curveball, and a solid changeup. Depending upon what source you read, either his slider or his curveball is the superior off speed pitch. Keith Law has speculated that Stanek's issues stem from poor pitch selection, while others suggest factors such as command and his delivery. This inability to get results has caused some to peg him as a future reliever. 分析似乎每屆都有幾位第一輪中前段的大學投手擁有出色的投球素質，但無法確切定義未來發展，本屆就是Stanek。僅管擁有水準之上的球質，包括 92-98 mph的速球，大角度的滑球，不錯的曲球，穩定的變速球，整個大學生涯，Stanek的K/9在7 附近，面對打線也無法展現預期的宰制力。正如你所看到的，滑球或曲球是他較具優勢的球種。Keith Law 觀察Stanek的問題主要是因為他的球種選擇並不好，而其他因素則是出在控球和出手上。這些缺陷將會把他限制在後援投手的位置上。 Stock: Considered a candidate to go first overall before the year, Stanek has left evaluators confused over his future role and value. 行情一年前Stanek是狀元的熱門人選，但現在Stanek卻因為角色定位不明讓球探難以評估。 ****** His issues all sound very correctable, especially for an organization with a reputation of developing pitchers. They'll be able to work on his secondary offerings to be sure he has an arsenal deep enough to start. He could take a little more time than the usual college arm to reach the majors, but the payoff could be worth it. Stanek的問題聽起來是可以被解決的，特別是光芒農場以調教投手聞名。球團可以幫助他磨出第二球種，讓他具備先發實力。需要比一般大學投手花上更多時間磨練才能登上大聯盟，但收穫絕對是值得的。 The question then centers around his signability. He was surely expecting to be drafted much higher than this, and if he's feeling confident in himself, he does have the option of going back to Arkansas and hoping for a better year. Let's assume he was expecting top 10 money; the 10th overall pick is worth a shade under $3 million. If the Rays offer him that, it leaves about $3.7 million in the pool to spend for their other picks after spending $3.8 million last year. This is quite doable, and I'm sure the Rays wouldn't have taken him if they weren't at least somewhat aware of what he wanted and how he could fit. 最重要的問題還是在簽約可能性。Stanek過去的評價明顯高於今年，如果他對自己足夠自信，完全可以拒絕簽約，再回去Arkansas以更好的成績挑戰明年選秀。假設Stanek想要的簽約金落在前十順位，第10順位大約是3M，扣掉這個簽約上限，光芒就只剩下3.7M可以花在其他的新秀身上，去年光芒在新秀上花了3.8M，所以這是可行的，而且我很確定光芒在選擇他之前做了全盤的考慮，包括球隊本身的需求和 Stanek的合適程度。 ------ From BleacherReport.com Background A third-round draft pick of the Mariners in 2010, Stanek instead chose to honor his commitment to the University of Arkansas, where, over the last three years, the right-hander has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the nation. 背景 2010年水手隊的第三輪新秀，但Stanek選擇去進入Arkansas，並在過去三年重新提高自己的身價，位列全國頂尖投手之林。 After making a strong impression during his freshman campaign, Stanek officially put himself on the draft radar by posting a 2.82 ERA in 92.2 innings as a sophomore. During the following summer, he strengthened his stock with a strong showing while pitching for the Team USA collegiate squad. As a result, the right-hander was widely regarded as a likely top-10 selection in the 2013 draft. 在經過令人印象深刻的大一，Stanek大二進一步將表現提高到92.2局ERA 2.82，也使他進入球探雷達中。接下來的夏天，他在美國隊的強勢表現進一步提高了他的選秀行情。因此普遍認為這位右投手可以在今年選秀會上名列top 10。 However, Stanek’s stuff has a taken a step back this season in terms of both velocity and effectiveness; his fastball hasn’t been as crisp and his secondary offerings have been less defined and consistent. 然而Stanek的球質在這個球季有所退步，不論是球速還是讓打者出局的效率都下滑；速球不再俐落，第二球種也不夠成熟和穩定。 Stanek is still regarded as a first-round pick, but there’s no question that his up-and-down junior campaign at Arkansas has impacted his overall stock. Stanek仍然是第一輪的人選，但是毫無疑問的是他起伏不斷的大三生涯影響了他的選秀行情。 Full Scouting Report Note: Numerical scores are on the conventional 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is average, with the current score first and projected score second. Body/Mechanics: Projectable 6’4”, 190-pound frame; high leg kick; extends too far with front side before foot strike; fast arm action from mid three-quarter slot; long, extended stride can cause arm to drag; potential injury risk; may impact ability to handle a large workload over course of a full season; tends to open with front side too early. 體型/投球機制具有天分的體型，6'4"，190lbs；高抬腳；在踩出軸心腳前身體過度延伸；三分之四的出手動作快速；過大的步幅可能會造成手臂跟不上放球點的問題；潛在的傷病風險；可能無法負荷整個球季的工作量；手臂有時會開得太早。 Fastball: 60/60 Sits 91-95 mph; has sat a few ticks lower at points this spring; has reached 96-97 mph in the past; generates forced arm-side run due to dragging arm; command of the offering varies; flattens out when left up in the zone; too hittable; needs to get on top of the pitch to create better sinking action on downhill plane. 快速球速球落在91-95 mph，季初大多集中在低點；過去曾到達96-97 mph；由於手臂跟不上放球點，出手時對手臂產生的壓力極大；控球不穩定；直球通過好球帶的軌跡太平；容易被擊中；需要把放球點調整到最高處，以製造本壘板附近更大的下沉軌跡。 Curveball: 50/60 Underused pitch in the low 80s; potential weapon that’s taken a backseat to his slider over the last two years; offering will be utilized as a professional; thrown with tight spin and hard break. 曲球 80 mph出頭的曲球還沒被Stanek充分運用在場上；潛在的武器，特別是滑球在過去兩年慢慢退步之後；將會成為他馳騁於職棒的關鍵；些微的旋轉，大幅度的軌跡。 Slider: 45/60 Pitch has lost a grade over the last year; still a potential plus offering; thrown with velocity in the 84-87 mph range; potential to be out-pitch at next level with more consistency; has never led to the amount of whiffs that it should; good tilt and depth; late, hard-diving action off the plate; overused; improved sequencing might improve effectiveness. 滑球過去兩年評價下滑許多；依然有機會成為水準之上的球種； 84-87 mph；如果能增加穩定性未來有機會成為決勝球；讓打者揮空的頻率不如預期；良好的傾斜角度和下沉幅度；在本壘板附近的變化晚且明顯；過度使用；調整配球會讓這個球種更有效率。 Control: 40/50 High-effort delivery and inconsistent three-quarters arm slot hinders control; works too many deep counts. 控球高壓和不穩定的四分之三出手阻礙了他的控球，有很大的改進空間。 Command: 40/50 Has relied on velocity and movement against college hitters; sequencing and use of pitches will need to be adjusted at the next level; average fastball command to both sides of the plate; will need to pound the lower portion of the strike zone with more consistency; needs to pitch off his slider less often; lack of speed differential between curveball and slider may be an issue against more advanced hitters. 憑藉著速度和位移足以對付大學打者；配球和球種比例在下個層級需要進行調整；將快速球控制在本壘板兩側的能力一般；需要增強攻擊本壘板下緣的穩定性；減少滑球使用頻率；曲球和滑球交互運用時缺乏明顯速差，面對高階打者時可能會成為問題。 MLB Player Comparison: Edwin Jackson Projection: Ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter; floor of a late-inning reliever. 前景最佳：二號或三號先發；最差：後段局數的救援投手。 MLB ETA: 2016 Chances of Signing: 99.9 percent -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244