[外電]Jeremy Hellickson and James Shields 2010

看板Rays作者TampaBayRays (坦帕灣光芒)時間12年前 (2013/08/31 19:55)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

留言2則, 2人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

To say that 2013 has been an off-year for Jeremy Hellickson would be a vast understatement. After his latest disaster start against the Royals on Monday, Hellickson has just a 5.21 ERA in 27 starts and 153.2 innings pitched. Somehow his record is 10-8 (one of the best arguments against W-L that you’ ll see), but he hasn’t done anything for the Rays for much of the season, failing to keep them in games time after time. The only thing you can credit Hellickson for is staying healthy–he’s the only Rays starter who has been with the team all season. However, that is far from sufficient. The Rays are supposed to have one of the best rotations in baseball. Jeremy Hellickson is dragging it down. Why is he still starting games? 對於Jeremy Helickson來說2013年是不好的一年,在他對皇家悲劇的先發之後,他今年的成績是5.21的防禦率和153.2局的投球局數。雖然他今年的成績是十勝八敗,但是他這個球季沒有為光芒做出太大的貢獻,讓光芒無法在比賽中保有競爭力。唯一能夠讚賞他的就是他很健康,他是唯一一個從開季到目前為止都在先發輪值的投手。然而,這樣是不夠的,光芒的輪值應該要是大聯盟最好的。Helickson讓人失望,為什麼他還是在先發? There is one major issue with that argument: Jeremy Hellickson has improved his strikeout, walk, and homer rates compared to last season, with his strikeout and walk rates being the best of his career by far. Hellickson’s FIP is 4.11 and his xFIP is 4.17, both career-bests as well. So why is Hellickson struggling so much? Fastball command is a big part of it, but that is a short-term answer to a long-term problem. Over the course of the season, we can’t be sure why Hellickson just has not had the same type of fastball command this season, leading to a batting average on balls in play well above his career mark. But at least in recent Rays memory, we do have another example of a pitcher going through the exact same thing: James Shields in 2010. 這裡有個常聽到的論點:Helickson的三振數,保送數,跟每九局被全壘打數都比去年進步而且三振和保送的數據是目前生涯最好的一年。FIP值4.11 xFIP值4.17也是生涯最佳, 所以為什麼他投的這麼掙扎?直球的控制佔了很大的因素,但這是將一個短期的答案給一個長期的問題。在這個球季間,我們不能確定Helickson的問題只是因為他對直球的控制變了,他的被打擊率也比他生涯的成績出色。但至少在光芒的歷史上,我們有另一個例子, 2010年的James Shields。 From 2006 through 2009, James Shields may not have been quite Hellickson-esque with his ERAs, but he still was a very good pitcher. Overall, he managed a 4.01 ERA (11 ERA+) with a 7.1 K/9, a 1.9 BB/9, and a 1.2 HR/9, going over 215 innings pitched the latter three seasons of that span. Then in 2010, everything fell apart. Shields went just 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA in 33 starts and 203.1 innings pitched, leading the league in hits, earned runs, and home runs allowed. But like Hellickson this year, the funny part about the whole thing was that Shields’ xFIP actually came in at 3.55, a career best. Shields walked a few more batters and allowed a lot more home runs, but he also experienced a huge jump in his strikeout rate all the way to 8.3 batters per 9 innings. He stayed at that strikeout level for his final two seasons in Tampa Bay, and as the number of home runs he allowed came back down to earth, he went from the number two starter he was from 2006 to 2009 to an ace alongside David Price in 2011 and 2012. 從2006到2009年James Shields雖然ERA不像Helickson這麼好,但他仍然是個好投手。在那段期間,他的ERA 4.01伴隨著7.1的K/9和1.9的BB/9還有1.2的HR/9跟215局然而到了2010年,一切都變了樣,Shields的成績只有13勝15敗,在他33場的先發中203.1局中,只有5.18的ERA,而且被安打數,責失分,跟被全壘打數都居全聯盟之冠。但就像 Helickson今年一樣,很有趣的,Shields的xFIP只有3.55是生涯最低。他多保送了一些打者被打了很多全壘打但他也大大的提升了他的K/9值到8.3。他之後的兩年保持著他那年的高三振率並將被全壘打數降回正常,這使他David Price一起變成了王牌投手 2010 was a transition year for James Shields. He was pitching differently than he had in the past, throwing his fastball more because he knew how well it set up his changeup and ignoring baseball convention by unabashedly throwing his changeup to righties far more than against lefties because he realized it was more effective. He threw his fastball considerably less in 2010, but at the end of the day, he was tinkering with his arsenal and trying to find the best formula for his success. In 2010, it did not work out at all, but in 2011 everything clicked. At the end of the day, 2010 made James Shields a better pitcher. It was wake-up call reminding him not to take anything for granted and made Shields realize that he didn’t have to pitch off his fastball to be successful. Could 2013 be a similar turning point for Jeremy Hellickson? 2010年是Shields的過渡期。他的投球和以前不太一樣,他投了更多的速球因為他知道如何去控制他的變速球,並且毫不掩飾的忽略棒球的慣例,因為他知道這樣更有效,他對右打投出的變速球遠遠多於他對左打所投出的。他在2010年很少投速球,但每天結束後他試著找出能讓他成功的最佳公式。2010年沒有成功,但在2011年他成功了,2010年讓 Shields變成了一個更好的投手,提醒了他不要假設任何事情。他也了解他不需要為了成功去減少他速球的比例。這個例子可以套用在今年的Helickson身上嗎? This season, Hellickson is striking out more batters than ever, just like Shields. But the key for Hellickson is going to be to figure out how to isolate the positives of this season while taking out all the things that have brought him down. This year, Hellickson has thrown more curveballs and two-seam fastballs than ever before while bringing his four-seam fastball usage way down (his changeup usage has stayed about the same). He has finally found two pitches that fill what has always been a void in his game as a pitcher: his inability to force groundballs. Hellickson had the right idea, but it didn’t work out because his command of both pitches is still a work in progress. Now he has to figure out the right mix of his pitches to recapture his previous success and see if he could, like Shields, possibly be better than ever before. This has been a nightmare of a season for Jeremy Hellickson. But after two seasons where he succeeded even as he had much to improve upon as a pitcher, it is finally setting in for Hellickson that he has to adapt to survive. Who knows what happens to Hellickson the rest of the season, whether he starts moving in the right direction or continues to struggle. It remains to be scene whether Joe Maddon will give Hellickson a playoff start like he gave Shields in 2010. At the end of the day, though, Jeremy Hellickson will enter this offseason the most motivated pitcher in baseball, and expect a turnaround in a major way in 2014. 這個球季Hellickson就像Shields一樣每九局平均比去年多三振了一個打者,但關鍵是他要怎麼保持今年的優點同時改善今年的缺點。今年Hellickson增加了曲球和二縫線的比例且降低了速球的比例(變速球的比例持平)。他終於找到兩球球路可以補強他身為一個投手所欠缺的:他沒有辦法製造滾地球。Hellickson有很好的想法,但是他還在研究如何控制這兩種球,所以他沒有成功。現在他需要去想出對的投球比例來重現他之前的成績,如果可以的話,像Shields一樣,變成更好的投手。這個球季對Hellickson來說就像是一場噩夢。但是在兩個成功成功的賽季之後,終於要讓Helickson去適應如何在大聯盟生存。沒有人會知道Hellickson剩下的球季會找到正確的解決方法或者是繼續掙扎下去。 Maddon會不會像2010對Shields一樣讓Helickson在季後賽先發會是一個話題。最後,Hellickson在季末會是最積極的選手並希望Hellickson在2014年可以徹底好轉。連結: http://ppt.cc/vN10 -- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 R H E Neptunus Familiestadion Cuba 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 13 1 Rotterdam Chinese Taipei 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 5 12 3 對戰古巴三連勝 WP:L. Chen Hua H. Chih Pei walk-off single 中華隊怒奪港口杯冠軍 LP:Y. Pedroso Chinese Taipei 5-4 Cuba July 03, 2011 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.36.155.222