[農場] 2013 Prospects in Review: Right Field

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間11年前 (2013/11/13 16:27)推噓4(4推 0噓 20→)

留言24則, 3人參與討論串1/1

之前曾嘗試寫過 prospects review，但寫得不太好 XD，今年DRaysBay為球迷回顧每個位置農場好手的表現，就翻譯出來和大家分享，順便看看別人是怎麼評估新秀的！DRaysBay原文很完整，從All-star potential到minor league guy，有興趣的可以點進去看，這邊我只針對高潛力的新秀做介紹，而順序的部分則就參考DRaysBay的發文順序。 Link：http://ppt.cc/-ihv Right Field Right field had a variety of profiles in 2013. There was a superstar prospect, some low ceiling-higher probability players, and some upside too. Four of our top 30 prospects played in right field this year, obviously led by Wil Myers. The typical right field profile prominently features three tools: hit, power and arm, but of course some players can break the mold. The list will start with players on the writers poll, and the rest will be listed alphabetically. 在光芒，右外野有許多不同等級的新秀，有超級新秀，也有天分較低完成度較高或是具備一定潛力的新人。在這個守位裡，有 4位進入Top 30 prospects的名單，當然最前面的就是熱騰騰的最佳新人Wil Myers。典型的右外野手會具備三項特點：打擊、長打和臂力（但當然也會有許多球員不符合這個模板）。 ------ 1. Wil Myers (22 Y.O. at Triple-A and Majors) 289 PA, .286/.356/.520, 10.0 BB%, 24.6 K%, 14 HR, 29 XBH (minor league stats only) After a slow-ish start with Durham, Myers took off and looks to be the pick for American League Rookie of the Year. He did start the year with a 19 game on-base streak, but he hit only two home runs in that stretch and was getting a bit pull-happy. He cut down on his strikeouts and took off after that, hitting nine home runs and posting a 1.174 OPS in his last 20 games before being called up to the majors. 在AAA慢熱的起步後，Myers開始加熱他的棒子並拿下今年美聯最佳新人。一開季 Myers就達成連續19場上壘的紀錄，但其間他也只敲出2支全壘打，打擊方式也顯得有點太愛拉打了。隨後他降低了自己的三振率，狀態也開始起飛，在他登上大聯盟之前的20場比賽，交出9發全壘打攻擊指數1.174的成績單。 When he reached the majors, he had his struggles like any other rookie, but he also showed his impressive power to all fields and ability to use the b-hack when necessary. While the Rays have sometimes struggled to find complementary bats to go along with Evan Longoria, Myers got his career off to a very good start and could live up to the billing. 上到大聯盟後，他就像其他新秀一樣陷入掙扎，但也展現了令人印象深刻的全方位長打火力，必要時要執行 B-Hack*，他也能勝任。當光芒屢次希望能找一個能保護 Evan Longoria的長打者的難題中受挫，Myers用出色的開場讓大家知道他就是球團要找的那個人。註："B-Hack"是Joe Maddon發明的攻擊戰術，又或者是說一種心理戰略。目的是為了提高擊球的機率，Maddon認為打者在兩好球之後，不要預設投手會投出球速極快的球路，而是把它想得慢一點，甚至忽略場上的局勢，包括布陣和跑者，只要能把球打出去就好。原文是： The “B-hack” consists of maybe choking up a little bit, looking away first, and thinking fastball first. I think that too many guys, by staying at the end of the bat, lose control of the head of the bat. I think that by not looking fastball, and thinking soft instead, when you get something hard you basically have no chance. I also think that when you’re looking middle/in, and the pitcher goes away, you basically have no chance. However, when you’ re looking away, and he throws it in, you do. So, I’d like to set these parameters for hitters to work with. Myers和B-Hack的關係：http://ppt.cc/-3rx ------ 12. Drew Vettleson (21 Y.O. at Class-A Advanced) 516 PA, .274/.331/.388, 7.8 BB%, 15.1 K%, 4 HR, 39 XBH Vettleson failed to build on a solid 2012 with Bowling Green, and the reports now consider his potential more of an average regular than first division starter (BA, $). Defensively, he's pretty solid with a plus-plus arm, but with an average bat, his arm isn't going to carry him far. Velttleson 無法在A+複製他去年在A的好成績，球探報告也認為他的潛力可能就是一位平均打者，不太可能會是頂尖的先發選手。防守端，他有很穩定且水準之上的臂力，但如果打擊無法進一步提高，他的臂力再好也沒用。 In 121 games with Charlotte, he hit only four home runs, his last coming on June 24th. He was eighth in the league in doubles, and if he gets stronger and those start turning into home runs, he could get back to first division starter potential. On a positive note, he was able to reduce his strikeout rate from over 20% the previous season. After stealing 20 bases in both of his first two professional seasons, he was a dismal five for 12 in stealing bases with Charlotte. 121場A+的比賽中，他只敲出4支全壘打，最近一支要追溯到6/24，他的二壘打在聯盟中排第8 ，如果可以把這個數字轉換成全壘打，他能重新證明自己具備頂尖先發的潛力。正面來看，他把三振率從去年的20%下修到15%，不過前兩季都有20次盜壘的他，本季只成功了5次。個人補充：對 Vettleson的養成還是抱持正面的態度，有很多跡象顯示明年會反彈，下列幾點： 1）其實他一直都有左殺的問題，去年對左投的表現很出色，但是BABIP也顯示運氣成分居多。今年在面對右投手時，成績是漂亮的.294/.357/.430。 2）雖然全壘打下修，但是總長打數和去年差不多，過去最令人詬病的三振率也有顯著的下滑。 3）他在四月遇到前所未有的低潮，可能是為了要降低三振率做了一些改變，如果拿掉四月的成績，五到九月是還不錯的.295/.352/.413。比較需要注意的是他在右外野的防守，全年發生14次失誤，比過去兩年加起來都還多，他的右外野的防守評價在平均水準之上。期待明年能調整回來。 ------ 13. Mikie Mahtook (23 Y.O. at Double-A) 568 PA, .254/.322/.386, 7.6 BB%, 18.0 K%, 45 XBH, 25 SB (75.8%) Mahtook played the last third of 2012 with Montgomery, and he returned there in 2013 and posted very similar numbers. His OPS was five points better, his walk rate was 0.9% higher, and his strikeout rate was 0.3% lower. Mahtook去年三分之一個賽季都待在AA，今年在AA的完整賽季交出類似的成績。 This was solidly above the league average, but he still can't shake the tweener profile of not enough power for a corner outfield spot and not enough range for center. Granted, he was bumped from center by two impressive defenders, Ty Morrison and Kevin Kiermaier, but scouts aren't optimistic that he has the tools to be more than a fourth outfielder (BA, $). 這個成績在聯盟水準之上，但對一個沒有長打威脅的角落外野手和防守範圍不足以涵蓋中外野的野手來說仍然不夠理想。他會被擠到邊角外野並不讓人意外，因為隊上有另外兩位出色的防守者，Ty Morrison和Kevin Kiermaier，但球探依舊認為他目前呈現出來的表現只可能成為四號外野手。 His base stealing is a plus, but with an average approach and struggles making contact, he could have trouble even becoming that. 盜壘能力在水準之上，但平均水準的揮擊和無法有效擊球才是他最大的問題。個人補充：整體來說，Mahtook是沒顯著有進步的，但如果考量下列因素，他明年在AAA的表現還是相當令人期待： 1）經歷明星賽前的打擊低潮後，Mahtook七到九月的成績是.289/.326/.403，甚至連盜壘成功率都保持在8成以上（嘗試12次成功10次）。是不是可以做為適應AA的訊號就等下季來應證。 2）整季RISP是.302/.361/.482。 3）今年AA聯盟平均OPS是偏低的.683，去年則是.703，因此他整體表現是有明顯提高的。今年wOBA+ 104，去年wOBA+ 93 在Guyer沒選擇權後，Mahtook明年勢必會拉上AAA站RF，如果 Major外野手過剩的問題能得到紓解，他又能打出不錯的成績，最快明年九月就有機會看到他的身影。 ------ 17. Brandon Guyer (27 Y.O. at Triple-A) 405 PA, .301/.374/.458, 7.2 BB%, 15.3 K%, 36 XBH, 22 SB (88%) After a lost season in 2012 due to injury, Guyer bounced back with a 2013 that was roughly in line with his previous two full seasons except for one major area: power. 在'12年因傷錯過大半個賽季之後，Guyer在今年展現不錯的反彈力道，成績幾乎接進先前的兩個完整球季，除了…長打能力。 His ISO dropped 52 points compared to 2011 with Durham, and he also only hit seven home runs. Perhaps this can be attributed to his season ending shoulder injury last year and a late-season finger injury this year. 和'11年的成績相比，他的純長打率掉了.052，今年也只有敲出7發全壘打，也許是因為去年讓他整季報銷的肩傷和今年球季末的指傷。 Guyer was still solid in other areas though, especially his base running. He was actually better against right-handed pitchers this year, hitting for more power and drawing walks at a higher rate. Guyer 各項表現依舊相當出色，特別是跑壘。面對右投手時，他的表現較佳，有更好的被保送率和長打率。 Although he did come back sooner than expected from his finger injury, the Rays preferred to keep him on the disabled list for late-season roster maneuvering than actually use him in baseball games. 雖然他在指傷後的康復時間比預期來得快，但光芒卻寧願為了人員調動把他放在傷兵名單，而不是讓他上場打球。個人補充： Guyer下季就沒選擇權了，如果Major的外野群沒有做出調整，他在春訓表現又不理想，以他的功能性（防守範圍不如Sam Fuld，打擊成熟度不如Sean Rodriguez）和傷病史來說，被交易出去的機率不小。在Myers畢業後，做為光芒高階農場最有Power 的新秀（有點心酸 XD），還是希望他加加油囉！ ------ Joey Rickard (22 Y.O. at Class-A) 559 PA, .270/.390/.409, 14.0 BB%, 17.5 K%, 42 XBH, 30 SB (75%) Rickard was a teammate of Field on not only Arizona's 2012 National Championship team, but also in high school. He's able to play center field with his solid athleticism, but he was relegated to right to accommodate the speedy Andrew Toles. He doesn't have the power to profile there every day, but he could make the majors as a fourth or fifth outfielder. He's an effective base stealer with a patient approach is why he was a good fit batting at the top of Bowling Green's lineup for much of the year. Rickard 其實有防守中外野的運動能力，但被同隊運動能力更好的Andrew Toles 擠到右外野。他沒有成為固定輪換球員的長打實力，但以一位第四或第五外野手來說已經算不錯了。有效率的盜壘者，在打擊區也相當有耐心，這也是為什麼他是光芒 A 近幾年最棒的前段棒次。 Like Field, Rickard is a grinder that's going to get the most out of his ability. He was old for the Midwest League, so he's going to have to show he can maintain this performance at higher levels. Rickard 還需要更努力磨練自己，使能力達到最大化，在所屬聯盟裡他的年紀偏大，所以他需要證明自己可以在高階聯盟拿出相同的表現。 ------ Johnny Field (21 Y.O. at Short-Season Class-A) 262 PA, .252/.299/.370, 4.6 BB%, 14.5 K%, 23 XBH, 14 SB (70%) Like Araujo, Field is another player that didn't fit his profile as an amateur. Expected to move from center field to second base because of a below average arm, he instead played most of his games in right field. Field和Rickard不只是Arizona University在2012年拿下全國冠軍的隊友，事實上他們高中就認識了。Field 進入職業的開場讓人有些失望，原先預期他會因為臂力太差從中外野移防二壘，但目前他整季幾乎都是以右外野手的身分出賽。 Without any standout tools, he's going to have to make better contact to rise through the minors because effort and leadership can only take him so far. He was tied for the league lead in doubles with 20, and it could be worth something to point out that the New York Penn League is such a pitcher's league that his OPS was above the league average. 沒有出色的身體素質，但只要進一步提升擊球能力，光是他的努力與領導能力就能幫助他順利晉升。Field 20支二壘安打是全聯盟最多，而且所屬聯盟是極度偏向投手的聯盟，而他的成績（OPS.669）還在聯盟平均（OPS.651）之上。 ------ Yoel Araujo (19 Y.O. at Rookie/Princeton) 231 PA, .223/.300/.354, 8.7 BB%, 28.6 K%, 7 HR Araujo is still very young, but time may be running out for the franchise record holder for biggest bonus for a Dominican player. When he signed three years ago, he was advertised as a potential five tool player, but his statistics suggest he now has a completely different profile. Araujo還非常年輕，但對這位拿到光芒在多明尼加最高簽約金的的新人來說，時間消逝得非常快。三年前，他還是一位潛力的五工具球員，但他的數據並沒辦法支持當時的評價。 He has a more patient approach than most Latin signees, but his swing has not yet developed to make more consistent contact. At 6'0 and 190 pounds (after being listed as 6'3 when he signed), he's probably not going to fill out and add much more power. 比起其他拉美新人，Araujo在打擊區更有耐心，但他的揮擊並不穩定，6'0" 190 磅的身材也許可以再長點肌肉，讓他的打擊火力再提升。 Once billed as a good athlete that could stay in center field, he didn't play an inning there this season, and he only has 16 steals in 24 career attempts since 2011. It was also believed that his arm could land him in left field, but apparently it is good enough for right. Araujo曾經被認為運動能力足以防守中外野，但本季他沒有在這個守位出賽，從 2011年以來，他嘗試24次盜壘只成功16次。他的臂力可以防守左外野，但就對右外野來說，顯然也可夠了。 ------ 其他 Evan Frey (27 Y.O. at Double-A and Triple-A) 166 PA, .222/.311/.250, 11.4 BB%, 18.1 K%, 9 SB (75%) Jeremy Hadley (18 Y.O. at Rookie/Gulf Coast League) 116 PA, .205/.233/.259, 3.4 BB%, 27.6 K% -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244

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