[農場] 2013 Prospects in Review: Third Base

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間11年前 (2013/11/22 00:19)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

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Link：http://ppt.cc/SSDz Third Base One last corner position before we move on. Like first base, it's usually the bat and power tools that carry a prospect here, but arm strength is vital too. The run tool isn't particularly important, but quick feet and reactions are an important part of the field tool. 需求和一壘手相似，對三壘手而言，打擊和長打能力是他們生存的關鍵，除此之外還有臂力的要求。跑壘能力並不是必要的，但敏捷的腳步和反應在防守上扮演很重要的角色。 The Rays had two third base prospects in the top 30 this season, both of which are former first round picks. Both players were probably average at best but will probably remain among the organization's position player prospects. With Evan Longoria, if any of these players make the majors, it seems likely that it'll be at a different position. 光芒有兩位三壘新秀本季進入Top 30，兩位都是首輪簽。他們最好可能會成為平均水準的大聯盟球員，但也有可能只是用來填補小聯盟空缺的野手。在Longoria穩坐光芒三壘手的前提下，這些球員都可能會面臨移防的考驗。 ------ 6. Richie Shaffer (22 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced) 519 PA, .254/.308/.399, 6.7 BB%, 20.4 K%, 11 HR, 45 XBH Shaffer damaged his stock in 2013 with a season that was barely better than the Florida State League average. Billed as a polished college hitter prepared to succeed at this level, he struggled making contact for most of the season. Maybe part of that can be attributed to radical changes to his swing that he attempted to make, but except for one especially hot month of July, the results were mostly the same throughout the season. Shaffer 今年的成績只略高於所屬聯盟平均，這也毀了他的行情。成熟的大學新人本應該在這個層級獲得成功，但他大多數的賽季都無法有效的擊球。也許部分可以歸咎到他個人想在揮棒姿勢上做的徹底改變，但除了火燙的七月，每個月的表現其實都差不多。 Going back to the Arizona Fall League for the second straight off-season, Shaffer's results have gotten better. As of writing this, he has more walks than strikeouts like he did at Clemson. He's batting .273, but the potential plus-plus power has not been evident with his .341 SLG. Extracting meaningful information from AFL stats can be an exercise in futility, but it's still encouraging that he didn't completely tank. Maybe he can build on that success next year which he didn't in 2013. 連續第二年參加AFL，Shaffer的表現有進步了。截至目前為止，就像在大學時期所做的，保送比三振還多。打擊率是還算不差的.277，不過原本預期70分的長打能力沒有反應在.341的長打率上。也許分析 AFL的數據是件沒有太大意義，但至少看到一些令人鼓舞的改變。也許我們明年可以看到他在今年所沒有的成長。個人補充：比起打擊或力量，球探更欣賞 Shaffer的揮棒速度，對打者來說揮棒速度是成就打擊技巧和長打火力的基礎，需要結合許多先天條件才能發揮，是教不來的天賦，這也是去年他一度被視為前10順位最大的原因。當他能把揮棒速度、力量、平衡感和流暢的揮棒軌跡結合在一起時，就能在不降低打擊率的前提下，輕鬆發揮最大的長打威力。除了這點，也有球探建議他需要學習在不同狀況下調整打擊模式，期待能更準確的擊中球，就算縮短揮棒幅度，水準之上的揮棒速度也能輕鬆也能把球掃到外野。今年年初，就有球探報告指出 Shaffer在打擊姿勢上有了改變，最明顯的地方在和抬腿（球探用早期的Alex Rodriguez做比喻），優點是揮擊動作會提早起動，在球棒碰到球之前會累積更多動量，缺點是縮短判斷球種的時間（俗稱「揮大棒」）。雖然 Shaffer很少會在前幾球出棒，不過進攻欲望很強，會不自覺的放大好球帶，甚至用失去平衡的打擊姿勢攻擊變速球，這都是他升上更高層級前所需要做出的調整。雖然就成果來說是滿慘的，但我對 Shaffer調整打擊姿勢是採正面態度，至少他很清楚要登上大聯盟最有機會的守位就是一壘，才想進一步提高長打火力。只是農場打擊教練還沒幫他摸索出最適合他的打擊姿勢。先前接受BA採訪時Shaffer曾表示Jose Bautista是他的模仿對象之一，恰巧（也有可能是專門為了他XD）光芒前些日子新雇用的小聯盟打擊指導Chad Mottola正是前任藍鳥打擊教練，希望他能給Shaffer合適的建議。附上Shaffer不同時期的三段影片：（注意跨步和抬腿） NCAA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=899EWcexyGU

2012 Rays https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVmxj3mIizc

2013 Rays https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ3TZC9i7zQ

------ 14. Tyler Goeddel (20 Y.O. at Class A) 497 PA, .249/.313/.389, 8.0 BB%, 19.7 K%, 7 HR, 37 XBH, 30 SB (85.7%) Goeddel repeating the Midwest League was a bit of a surprise to me, and it was also a surprise that he didn't perform any better. In fact, his performance on the surface was incredibly similar. He batted three points higher, and his OPS was five points lower (the league average OPS dipped two points.) He stole 30 bases in 35 opportunities in both seasons. His walk rate dipped from 10% to a still acceptable 8%, and he cut his strikeouts down to a more reasonable 19.7%. His power was a little better too, largely due to hitting 10 more triples. Goeddel今年再次從A出發有點令我意外，更意外的是他的表現沒有進步。事實上他的成績幾乎是一個模子刻出來的。打擊率和長打率都差不多，兩個賽季都是盜壘嘗試35次成功30次。保送率從10%掉到還可以接受的8%，然後三振率進步到19.7%。今年多打了10支三壘安打，讓他的長打率看起來有些成長。 Early in the season, Goeddel even played a few games at shortstop, but he didn't have any during the last three months of the season. He's athletic enough to play positions besides third base, but the Rays seem pretty content to keep him at the hot corner. That athleticism is why some scouts still remain optimistic (BA, $) despite his stagnant statistics this year. He'll get a shot in the FSL next season, and the Rays hope he continues getting stronger and gains some power. 季初 Goeddel在游擊出賽了幾場，但接下來三個月都沒有守過游擊。他的運動能力要可以移防到其他守位，但光芒似乎很確定把他定位在邊角野手。雖然今年數據沒有太多的進步，不過出色的運動能力讓球探持續看好他的發展。下季他將會升到A+，光芒希望他可以變得更壯並增加一些長打能力。個人補充：從全年的數據來說 Goeddel進步是不明顯的，但要說他沒有進步卻不完全正確，去年Goeddel四月的打擊成績是.304/.360/.493，出色成績的背後卻是偏高的BABIP，接下來幾個月BABIP下修以後，剩下賽季是.230/.305/.337，OPS .642。今年則剛好相反，四月依舊威猛，五月依舊低迷，但接下來是.263/.296/.412，OPS .708（算上五月是.242/.294/.379，OPS .673），從這個角度來看，Goeddel 進步幅度是滿明顯的。比較麻煩的是，今年他的GB%提高和LD%下降的幅度都很顯著，如果想至少養成中長程火力的打者，打擊方式勢必要進行調整。 ------ Cole Figueroa (26 Y.O. at Triple-A) 533 PA, .286/.361/.367, 10.1 BB%, 5.6 K% Figueroa continued plugging away with Durham in 2013 after spending the second half of 2012 there. His OPS clearly isn't impressive because he has almost no power, but Joe Maddon sees a big league future for him. He has more walks than strikeouts in his career, and he nearly had twice as many walks as strikeouts this year. He makes up for his lack of power by doing whatever it takes to get on base. Every cliche that's ever uttered about a player lacking tools probably applies to Figueroa. He'll get the most out of his ability. Figueroa今年在AAA開始球季，因為缺乏長打能力，OPS並不出色，但Joe Maddon 認為他已經是個大聯盟選手了。生涯保送比三振多，今年保送甚至是三振的兩倍。他的上壘能力彌補了他在長打上的不足。每個升不上大聯盟的老將都會被質疑在某些方面有所不足，但他會最有效的利用他的能力。 How much ability he has is the question. After finishing last season in Triple-A, he was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and wasn't taken. To me, a player that can play every infield position and get on base should get a look on an ML roster. The Rays will decide again if they want to ensure he stays in the organization by putting him on the 40 man roster, or if they'll let other teams get another chance to take him. 問題是他有什麼能力？去年 AAA賽季結束後他沒被放入40人名單，隨後的Rule V 也沒被選中。對我來說，一個能守內野每個守位又能上壘的球員應該有機會登上大聯盟。光芒今年要再次做出選擇，決定他們是否要吧Figueroa放入40人名單，或讓其他球隊有選擇他的機會。個人補充：雖然Figueroa的打擊型態（High contact, High On-Base）是光芒這幾年很愛的類型，但他最終沒進入40人名單。原因除了光芒有全聯盟最穩定的二、三、游防線， Sean Rodriguez、Tim Beckham、Hak-Ju Lee和新加入40人名單的Vince Belnome可以提供夠多深度以外，最大的原因是今年在Beckham和Fontenot擋道（Lee打沒幾場就報銷了）的情況下，Figueroa在三壘的防守機會居多，偶爾防守二壘或游擊，但不論是失誤次數或是守備範圍都沒有大聯盟水準，加上他不算是快腿，就算加進來也無法提供球隊立即的幫助，以他的年紀來說，沒放在40人名單是正確的決定。 ---- Riccio Torrez (23 Y.O. at Double-A) 339 PA, .247/.322/.365, 4.7 BB%, 16.5 K%, 23 XBH Torrez was drafted out of Arizona State in the fourth round two years ago, but he's struggled on the accelerated track the Rays put him on. Although his performance with Montgomery this year was better than his performance with Charlotte the previous season, his strikeout and walk rates were both roughly the same, and the only clear difference was a 33 point jump in BABIP. 來自亞歷桑納州的Torrez兩年前第四輪被光芒選中，但他在光芒為他安排的道路上卻是跌跌撞撞。雖然今年在AA的表現比以往好，但三振率和保送率都沒有顯著的進步，今年的好表現更多是得益於BABIP的成長。 Torrez plays the game hard, but his lack of tools is amplified by playing at levels higher than he was maybe ready for. His performance at Arizona State as an amateur indicated he would be able to play a little middle infield as a pro, but he hasn't taken the field at a position besides third base so far. Torrez很認真投入比賽，但他提高能力的速度比升級速度來得慢。他在亞歷桑納州的表現說明他進入職業有能力擔任中線內野手，但到目前為止他還沒有嘗試過其他守位。 ------ Ty Young (20 Y.O. at Short-Season Class A) 252 PA, .217/.310/.321, 9.5 BB%, 22.6 K%, 8 SB (61.5%) Being really disappointed in a seventh round pick may be a stretch, but Young failed to show many of the qualities in his pro debut that made him such a good player at Louisville. An athletic and high on-base player with the Cardinals, he wasn't able to make as much contact and get the ball in the gaps with the Renegades in his debut. 第七輪才被選中對 Young來說可能有點失望，但他第一個職業賽季並沒有展現他在Louisville所被期待的能力。作為一位出色的運動員和高上壘率的新秀，他在A-並沒有展現夠好的擊球能力和把球打向外野空隙的實力。 His strikeout rate in his sophomore and junior years with Louisville was just 13.6%, and he was much more inefficient stealing bases. Players have bounced back from poor pro debuts in a pitchers league like the NYPL, but this season was a negative. 本季三振率是22.6%，但他在二、三年級的三振率只有13.6%，盜壘也沒有效率。 A-所屬的聯盟對投手較為有利，過去也有野手經歷這個層級後反彈的案例，但今年的表現還是令人失望的。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.235.118 ※ 編輯: csy1911 來自: 140.118.235.118 (11/22 00:35)