[農場] 2013 Prospects in Review: Pitchers (1)

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間11年前 (2013/12/07 11:36)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

留言2則, 2人參與討論串1/1

Link：http://ppt.cc/PrAp 投手人數滿多的，會拆成幾個部分翻，首先是先發左投。 Left Handed Starting Pitcher The Rays have been among the best in the major leagues at developing southpaws over the past several years, with notable players including David Price, Matt Moore, and Enny Romero. Jake McGee and Alex Torres, two excellent relievers, were both starting pitchers in the minors leagues as well whose power stuff enabled them to successfully transition into the bullpen. 光芒是全聯盟近幾年最會培養左投手的球隊，比較著名的球員像是David Price, Matt Moore, Enny Romero, Jack McGee和Alex Torres。後兩位是優秀的後援投手，在小聯盟都是以先發投手的角色培養，出色的球質讓他們在轉型得很成功。 Normally, left handed starting pitchers throw less hard than their right handed counterparts. Most of the good prospects can hurl a good breaking ball (curve or slider), though a few show mastery of the change-up. Since they cause matchup problems with many left handed hitters, which account for the majority of major league batters, a good southpaw is a valuable weapon. Still, left handed pitching prospects have a lower success rate than right handed ones. 一般來說，同樣類型的兩位投手，左投的球威會比右投來得遜色一點。大多數在水準之上的新秀都有不錯的變化球（曲球或滑球），還有少數精通變速球。在左打者占多數的大聯盟，他們是很好的剋星，這也是左投手最大的價值。不過左投的養成仍就比右投手來得困難。 8. Enny Romero (22 Y.O. in Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB) 148.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 6.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 39.2 GB% Once a helium prospect who captured the attention of prospect followers, Romero has become a post-hype sleeper prospect. A brilliant 2010 in Princeton and Hudson Valley followed by a promising 2011 in Bowling Green caused him to start receiving top 100 attention as his mid-90s fastball and developing breaking ball gave many hope in his future. But Romero struggled in 2012 in Port Charlotte with an ERA of 3.93, a walk rate of 5.4 per nine, and a diminishing strike out rate. However, Romero's 2013 season should give fans some hope that he can still reach his potential. Romero在關注新秀的球迷眼中，曾經是一位快速成長的新星。連續兩年在Rk, A- , A 的出色表現，94~96 mph 的速球和不斷成長的變化球，讓球迷對他的未來抱持很高的期待，也成為百大新秀的熱門人選。但Romero去年在A+投得很掙扎，ERA 3.93，每九局保送 5.4個人次，三振率也退步了。不過他今年再次讓球迷知道他依舊有機會將潛力轉化成實力。 When looking at his peripherals, it is easy to see why there is plenty of skepticism about Romero. His walk rate once again dropped (6.8 per nine), and though his walk rate also fell, it wasn't exactly in control. However, the ERA and the rate of hits, both of which were excellent, tell a different story. He still has mid-90s velocity, though it can vary from 91-94 in some starts to 93-97 and touching 99 (he has been clocked at 100 several times) in others. His curveball, which stalled in 2012, showed much more promise, either ranging from an average pitch to an unhittable one (it was more along the lines of average in his MLB start). His change-up still lags behind, though it also showed more progress and promise this year. What holds Romero back is his command and pitchability, both of which are far below average. Though he has a good idea of how to attack right handed hitters, he struggles far too much against lefties considering his stuff. This lack of pitching knowledge is probably the main contributor to his mediocre peripherals, which were evident in his major league start (4 Ks and 0 BBs despite allowing only one hit and very little hard contact). 單純看數據就可以知道為什麼Romero會引來這麼多質疑。保送率曾經高到每九局保送 6.8個人次，雖然後來有下修，但是這不代表他在控球上有明顯的進步。但是被打擊率和ERA 都表現得非常出色。雖然球速有時候只有91~94 mph，但大多時候可以維持在93~97 mph，必要時可以丟到99甚至100 mph。除此之外，曲球在去年從平均水準成長到讓打者頻頻揮空的武器。雖然今年有點進步，但變速球的成長比較慢。目前會限制Romero成長的是他的控球和投球策略上的運用，目前兩者都低於平均水準。相較於與右打者的對決，他還不會善用自己的球質來宰制左打者。這可能會是造成他表現一般的主因。個人補充：雖然Romero今年的數據有反彈，但是運氣成分的可能性比較高。進階數據並沒有很明顯的進步。生涯對左右打沒有明顯區別，可以說他不怕右打，但更可能是沒辦法壓制左打，今年的小聯盟數據（vs.L OPS .721/vs.R OPS.570）更顯示這個問題是他到了更高層級需要改善的重點。目前而言，Romero依舊是農場綜合評價最好的左投手，不過還很生澀，真正要看到他發光發熱應該還要兩年熟成。 Enny Romero Debut： http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=30850701&topic_id=8879208 ------ 11. Blake Snell (20 Y.O. in Class-A) 99 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 9.6 K/9, 6.6 BB/9, 51.4 GB% An excellent statistical season in 2012 with Princeton set the expectations sky high for Blake Snell. In 2013, he failed to meet these expectations. Like many young pitchers, Snell struggled with command. His walk rate ballooned to a very concerning rate while his strikeout rate remained similar. His 13 wild pitches testify to his abysmal command. Additionally, he failed to work deep into games as he racked up high pitch counts. 去年在Rk交出優異數據後，大家對 Snell抱持很高的期待，不過今年他的表現有些令人失望。和許多年輕投手相似， Snell有控球上的問題，當保送率炸掉的同時，三振率保持在以往的水準。13次暴投證明他的控球的問題不小。除此之外，他過多的投球數也沒辦法負擔較長的局數。 Although the walk rate may cause many to shy away from Snell, there are still many reasons to have faith in him. So far, he has sown the ability to garner both strikeouts and groundballs. Furthermore, a young pitcher with good stuff having command issues is not unusual, though the severity of his problems is a very big issue. If Snell can get his command and walk rate under control, he profiles as a #3 starter who can pitch many innings. 雖然保送讓 Snell的評價有所下滑，依舊有充分的理由對他抱持信心。到目前為止，他展現了他在奪三振和製造滾地球的能力。再說，球質出色的年輕投手有控球問題也並不罕見，僅管這在他身上看起來是個大問題。如果 Snell可以把控球和保送率維持在一定的水準，他將會是球隊未來可以吃下長局數的三號先發。個人補充：其實我對 Snell的評價比Romero要來得高。主要原因就在於他的滾地球率好上很多，每年都保持在50%以上，今年會炸掉多少也是因為偏高的BABIP。除了控球，還需要加強對右打者的壓制力（vs.L OPS .806/vs.R OPS.610），不過他前兩年對左右打並沒有差到這麼離譜，今年會突然走鐘其實有些令人意外。不過他前幾天才剛滿21歲，目前大聯盟在輪值上也沒有迫切的需求，還有充裕的時間等他長大。 ------ 16. Felipe Rivero (21 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A) 127 IP, 3.40 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 42.3 GB%. After receiving little attention for his solid statistics and scouting reports, Rivero looked set to break out in 2013. Instead, he took a step backwards, displaying the first sign of control problems in his professional career and seeing his strikeout rate fall to a sub-standard level. With an arsenal featuring a low-90s fastball that can bump 94-95 mph and a change-up and curve that are both at times above average, Rivero shouldn't struggle to get strikeouts. While him command issues are not as severe as those of someone like Snell's, there still needs to be lots of improvement for him to reach his #3 starter potential. 去年穩定的數據和球探報告讓Rivero今年很受矚目，但他的表現卻退步了。職業生涯首次發生控球問題，三振率也低於平均。他的武器主要是可以衝到94-95 mph 的速球，曲球和變速球也在平均水準之上。這樣的條件照理來說奪三振應該不難。雖然控球問題不像 Snell這麼嚴重，但如果想達到三號先發的潛力還有很長的路要走。 ------ 25. Mike Montgomery (23 Y.O. in Triple-A and Advanced Class-A [rehab]) 117.1 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 6.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 45.1 GB%. The writers rated Montgomery quite a bit lower than the community, probably because we might have been more in tune to the severity of his recent struggles and injuries. For the most part, Montgomery was healthy this year. However, he wasn't able to revert to his pre-2011 form. As expected from reviewing his stat line, his stuff has not fully returned to its pre-2011 levels; his fastball now resides in the 89-92 range instead of the mid-90s, and his curveball is loopy. His change-up still grades as a 60/70 pitch, but his over reliance on it limits its effectiveness. While the Rays will probably hold out a little longer on the hope he can start, he profiles best as a middle reliever (with a set-up man ceiling). 也許是因為最近幾年的掙扎和傷勢，在一些專欄作家眼中，Montgomery的排名比球迷評選來得低。Montgomery今年大部分的時間都很健康。但他依舊沒有回到2011年前那樣驚人的狀態。如同我們對他過去數據的觀察，他的球質已經沒有當年頂級新秀的水準。速球大部分落在89~92 mph，曲球有不錯的變化幅度。變速球依舊是60/70分的水準，但過度依賴這個球種反而限制了他的威力。雖然光芒會願意多花一點時間等他長大，但他的上限可能只是短中繼（有機會養成佈局投手。）個人補充：這篇評論也太悲觀XD。離開可怕的PCL還是有差，但光芒AAA投打相對均衡的環境絕對是重建Montgomery信心不可或缺的要素。事實上，Monthomery是今年光芒派去 AFL表現最好的新秀。整個休賽期，教練團和球探對他的成長也是好評不斷。其中被特別點出來的就是他在球種搭配上的進步。另外特別封印評價不錯的滑球（有些球探覺得是卡特），主要目的就是為了磨他的曲球， AFL結束後，農場總管Mitch Lukevics針對這點給了高度的評價。另外也特別說明，把他放在牛棚絕對不是要他轉型後援，只是單純想保護他的手臂。最近一篇球探報告針對他在 AFL投的三種球種給出評語。平均水準的速球，有不錯的移動效果。足以欺騙打者的曲球。水準之上的變速球則是他最純熟的球種。在這樣互相搭配的結果，他在眾星雲集的AFL交出K/9 9.0的成績，相較於季中傷癒歸隊後沒有一個月K/9超過7.0，已經是很大的提升。也許有人會質疑這是小樣本，但事實上 Montgomery從傷兵名單回來後，每個月的進階數據都在進步* ，相比去年遲遲無法站穩AAA，今年的表現已是有目共睹。 *逐月進階數據：六月 K/9 5.52，BB/9 4.30，SIERA 4.98，GB% 46.1% 七月 K/9 6.00，BB/9 4.09，SIERA 4.57，GB% 48.0% 八月 K/9 6.89，BB/9 3.58，SIERA 4.28，GB% 49.0% SIERA：綜合運氣、防守及球場因素來預估一個投手應有的ERA。的確，Montgomery已經不是當年眾所期待的Next Ace in League（如果是，皇家不但不會交易他，搞不好也不會犧牲Myers來換Shields。），但目前的上限絕對不是左手牛，起碼還有後段輪值的水準，只是他還有很多功課要做，不夠穩定的投球機制已經不是第一次被拿出來檢討，控球很差，對右打者的壓制力都是隱憂。但我相信光芒的修復工程是走在對的路上。如果願意多點耐心，沒意外的話，最晚後年有機會看到他以光芒球員的姿態登上大聯盟投手丘。 ------ Grayson Garvin (23 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A and Rookie League [rehab]) 28.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 40.7 GB%. A supplemental first round pick out of Vanderbilt in the 2011 draft, Grayson Garvin didn't pitch until 2012. As a member of the Stone Crabs, the polished left handed pitcher performed much worse than expected, posting a 5.05 ERA before having Tommy John surgery in the summer. In college, Garvin worked with a three pitch mix; he threw a 90-94 mph fastball, a solid average change-up, and a below average slider. 2011年來自Vanderbilt的補償選秀簽，Grayson Garvin直到2012年才開始他的職業賽季。這位成熟的左投在A+的表現比預期來得差很多，在夏天接受Tommy John之前 ERA 5.05。大學時期，Garvin結合三種球種來解決打者，90-94 mph 的速球，穩定的變速球和低於平均的滑球。 Garvin did not start pitching again this year until July, and after several appearances with the GCL Rays, he was sent once again to Port Charlotte, where he finished the season. It was a very solid year statistically for him, and his velocity has been in its typical range in the Arizona Fall League. The surgery put him behind schedule, but Garvin has the chance to progress quickly and reach the majors as a solid #4 starter. 今年Garvin直到七月才開始投球，在 GCL出賽幾場比賽後，直接被送到A+，並在這裡完成賽季。今年的數據很棒，在 AFL球速也維持得很好。雖然手術拖延了他的養成，但Garvin有機會快速晉升，並成為不錯的四號先發登上大聯盟。個人補充： Garvin當年的選秀評價是：中段輪值，可以快速升級。目前看起來，要不是因為傷勢，應該還算符合期待。雖然說去年爆胎，但其實進階數據很棒。今年傷癒歸隊後一直保持不錯的三振率和保送率，總和A+/AFL：K/9 7.7，BB/9 2.5。他的問題在於變化球不夠穩定，狀況好時變速球可以控在好球帶下緣吃死打者，滑球（有人覺得比較像Slurve）的軌跡幾乎可以橫跨整個好球帶，狀況不好也可以在一局裡連環爆。像 Garvin這種沒有Power stuff 的投手，變化球的穩定性幾乎決定他未來的成長，但這類型的投手在養成上也會稍微慢一點。四號先發對他來說肯定是保守估計，那顆滑球的成熟度絕對是他能不能衝到三號甚至是二號的關鍵球路。 Grayson Garvin's Breaking Ball： http://ppt.cc/bfr~ ------ Ryan Carpenter (22 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A) 117.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 32.8 GB%. When the Rays drafted him out of Gonzaga University in the 7th round of the 2011 MLB draft, Ryan Carpenter profiled as the rare college starter with substantial upside but a large gap between that and present ability. The Rays signed him to an over-slot deal and hoped he would recover the excellent stuff he previously flashed. So far in pro ball, Carpenter hasn't lived up to his promise. His stuff is still more that of a back end starter, and he has had some home run issues which can be attributed to his very high fly ball percentage. 當光芒在2011年第七輪選中來自Gonzaga University的Ryan Carpenter時，他被認為是大學投手中少數還有潛力的新秀。光芒以高於建議簽約金的價格簽下他後，也說明球團相當看好他能回復到過往優異的球質。到目前為止， Carpenter還沒有回應這個期待。球質依舊不如大多數先發投手，過高的飛球率也有容易挨轟的問題。個人補充： Carpenter 已經沒有當年動輒97 mph的速球，目前的球速大約都落在90 mph出頭，但倚靠精準的控球（可能是目前光芒農場最好）和不錯的變化球（大曲球和滑球）軌跡，讓他的K/BB一直維持得不錯。極端的飛球投手，平均每9局就要挨1轟，如果是在對打者有利的農場可能已經養不下去了。雖然進階數據每年都在退步，不過到目前為止還在可接受範圍，有機會養成可以吃下長局數的工作馬。不過今年季末肩膀受傷，可能會是養成上的變數。 ------ Jordan Harrison (22 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A, Class-A, and Advanced Class-A) 89.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 48.0 GB%. Despite being shifted across three levels, Jordan Harrison managed to put together a very good season. In many respects, his season was very similar to his 2012 season: a good strikeout rate, a better than average walk rate, and a low ERA. According to a report from rayscoloredglasses.com, Harrison at the draft time featured a 90 mph fastball, a solid curveball, and a poor change-up. After two very good seasons, it will be interesting to see if the Rays start utilizing Harrison more as a legitimate prospect. 雖然橫跨三個層級， Jordan Harrison還是交出了一個非常出色的賽季。在許多方面，他今年的成績和2012年非常相近，不錯的三振率，平均之上的保送率，ERA 也保持得很好。Harriston 在選秀時最主要的武器是90 mph的速球，穩定的曲球和很爛的變速球。經過兩個非常棒的賽季之後，看光芒如何安排他的未來是件有趣的事情。個人補充：不知是幸還是不幸，如果不是因為農場雞瘟一樣的傷病潮，可能根本沒有人會注意到Harrison這號人物。大概是因為投球策略或球路變化的關係，他面對左打者會搖身一變成滾地球投手，但右打者也很難在他身上討到便宜。大學時期控球不太好，但這兩年下來卻沒對他造成明顯的困擾，反而長出令人意外的三振能力。同時他先發時的表現比後援好一些，我會將他視為明年在A+的先發五人之一，明年他就會讓光芒知到是不是真的掏到珍珠了。 ------ Chris Kirsch (21 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A and Advanced Class-A) 92.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 54.3 GB%. In his second season in the organization, Chris Kirsch, a 2012 14th round pick, improved immensely from his 8.10 ERA, posting a 3.01 ERA this year. While the ERA is shiny, there are a few red flags. A sub-five strikeout per nine rate is very poor, and while he did not walk a ton of batters, he was not a control artist either. He throws a fastball that can get up to 92 mph and he also throws a curveball, slider, and changeup. Chris Kirsch這位2012年第14輪選中的球員是職業二年級生，他今年的成長非常顯著，ERA從8.10進步到3.01。但僅管如此還是有些比較明顯的問題。每九局的三振數不到 5是不太理想的數字，雖然保送不算太多，但控球也稱不上出色。速球可以來到92 mph，另外還有曲球、滑球和變速球。個人補充： Kirsch大學時代其實有不錯的三振能力，最後一年，70局可以K掉101位打者，最棒的球種是曲球，有不錯的下沉軌跡，常常讓打者打出軟弱的滾地球。他有多樣的武器，但都不算突出，控球也還不足以讓這些球路發揮最大的威力，現階段還很容易被擊中。他今年的進步是可預期的，因為去年的BABIP 是誇張的.412，運氣很糟，事實上進階數據還不錯。他是個能負擔長局數的先發投手，對左右打也沒有明顯的差異。不過如果球種沒有突破性的成長，成為可以製造滾地球出局的長中繼可能性較高。 ------ Ben Griset (21 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A) 66 IP, 3.41 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 49.8 GB%. The Rays 13th round pick in the 2013 draft, Ben Griset joined Chris Kirsch and Aaron Griffin to give the Hudson Valley Reneagdes three strike throwing pitchers at the top of the rotation. According to John Sickels, Griset is more of an organization player than a true prospect. His fastball hovers in the upper 80s, and he will also throw a curveball and a change-up. Ben Griset是今年第13輪選中的新秀，他、Chris Kirsch和Aaron Griffin 是今年光芒A-的先發三本柱。John Sickels認為Griset的天分比較像用來填充農場空缺的小聯盟投手。速球在89~90 mph 附近，另外也會丟曲球和變速球。個人補充： Griset這個新秀很有趣，他大學時期聯賽層級並不高，不過從那時候開始他就是個「壘包精算師」，要從他手中打出安打並不難，但要大量得分很不容易。今年比較令人意外的是漂亮的保送率，因為他當年選秀評價不高的主因之一就是控球太差。我認同Sickels 的看法，他登上大聯盟的機率並不高（不只沒辦法壓制左打者，根本就是被打爆，看數據他更像Roogy），但農場還是需要這類型的投手來維持輪值深度。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.235.118