[農場] 2013 Prospects in Review: Pitchers (2)

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間11年前 (2013/12/10 23:51)推噓7(7推 0噓 22→)

留言29則, 7人參與討論串1/1

Link：http://ppt.cc/GG~D 接著是先發右投。 The Rays have been stacked with starting pitchers over the past several years, and this past year is no exception. The Rays benefited from major league contributions from several of their right handed starting pitching prospects, including rookie of the year candidate Chris Archer, Alex Colome, and Jake Odorizzi. 光芒農場這幾年蒐集了一堆先發投手，今年也不例外。光芒今年能在大聯盟收穫一個成功的賽季，背後的功臣就是這些年輕的先發右投手，例如：年度最佳新秀的候選人Chris Archer、Alex Colome和Jake Odorizzi Right handed starting pitchers usually throw harder than lefties, with the best fastballs routinely sitting in the mid-90s. After that, there is a large variety of differences among these pitchers. Some are power arms while others are finesse pitchers. A usable change-up is normally key, as it helps neutralize left handed hitters. 先發右投的球威通常比左投來得好，大部分球速都可以穩定落在 94-96 mph，但這其中也有很多不同類型的球員。有些倚賴出色的球質和速球，有些倚賴精準的控球和變化球。勘用的變速球是養成上的關鍵，這會是他們在面對左打者很重要的武器。 2. Chris Archer (24 Y.O. in Triple-A and MLB) 178.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 48.9 GB%. When the Rays signed Roberto Hernandez, Chris Archer lost his shot of making the rotation during spring training. The Rays wanted to keep him in Triple-A for him to continue his progression and to give the Rays depth in case of injuries. Archer got off to a poor start with Durham, seemingly lacking sharpness and causing some to wonder if frustration in not making the Rays out of spring training was bothering him. 光芒簽下Roberto Hernandez的同時，就預示著 Chris Archer新球季將會從小聯盟出發。光芒希望他能在 AAA繼續修正自己的不足，並提供輪值一定的深度。Archer 在 AAA的開季並不理想，球路也不像過去這麼銳利，甚至有些人想問是不是失去輪值影響了他的表現。 When several injuries cleared a path to the major leagues, the Rays promoted their struggling right handed pitcher for a start in Cleveland, one which went poorly, which came as no surprise to those watching him in Durham. However, Archer made tremendous strides later in the season in the major leagues, significantly reducing his walk rate and posting a total 3.22 ERA. His performance netted him third place in the rookie of the year voting. Having cemented his spot in the rotation, Chris Archer's days of playing in the minor leagues should be coming to a close. 季中接二連三的傷病讓輪值出現不小的空缺，光芒大膽讓這位在 AAA投得很掙扎的右投手登上大聯盟面對印第安人隊。事實上，Archer當時的表現並不理想，甚至連進場看球的球迷都不抱持太大的期待。但Archer隨後技驚四座的表現一直延續到球季結束，明顯減少保送率，並交出ERA 3.22的成績，也讓他球季結束在新人王票選位居第三。在先發輪值站穩腳步之後，Chris Archer的小聯盟生涯算是結束了。個人補充：這篇有些太樂觀了。Archer的球威無庸置疑，但從進階數據來看，他的表現並沒有比小聯盟來得好，各家預測系統也不看好他明年的表現。殘壘率78.8%是生涯新高，BABIP .253則是生涯新低。種種數據都顯示他的好表現運氣成分居多。Archer有前段輪值的天分，他和Moore絕對是Price離隊之後，光芒還能維持輪值強度的關鍵。 ------ 7. Alex Colome (24 Y.O. in Triple-A and MLB) 86.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.75 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 40.0 GB%. At the onset of the season, it seemed unlikely that Alex Colome would make any starts in the major leagues as Jeff Niemann, Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi all were in front of him in the pecking order. However, thanks to his excellent performance in the minors and a rash of injuries to the rotation, Alex Colome made three major league starts, and would have possibly had more if not for an injury himself. 球季剛開始，沒有人想得到Colome有機會在Jeff Niemann、Chris Archer和Jake Odorizzi擋道下脫穎而出。但他在小聯盟出色的演出和輪值的傷病。 Alex Colome獲得三場先發機會，如果不是因為受傷可能還會得到更多出賽場次。 While in the major leagues, Colome held the opposition to low hit and run totals but struggled to work deep into games and posted mediocre peripherals. He relied on his fastball, change-up, and cutter/slider, with the fastball showing good velocity and the change-up flashing plus in his first start. However, it appears Colome would benefit from bringing back his curveball, offering hitters the look of a true breaking ball. Should his health be fully restored, Colome should start next year in Triple-A and be ready to slide into the rotation of even bullpen in case of any injuries. 儘管是在大聯盟，要從Colome手上得分或擊出安打都不容易，但他能負擔的局數不長，進一步來看也有很多問題。主要球種是速球、變速球和滑球。雖然球速不錯，變速球在他第一場先發也有很漂亮的表現。但Colome可能還要拿出他封存已久的曲球來製造大幅度的軌跡變化。健康問題一直是Colome在養成上的障礙，他明年應該會從 AAA 出發並隨時準備好搶占輪值或牛棚的一個席次。個人補充： Colome一直是我很喜歡的新秀，和Archer不同的是，他三種水準之上的球路都非常成熟，且左右通殺。球技上，控球和體能是他唯二的弱點，比較麻煩的是，從他過往的紀錄來看似乎也沒有明顯的成長。Colome是痛痛體質也不是什麼大新聞，也是他未來在定位上最大的不確定因素，如果他不能保持健康，可能會像 McGee一樣移往牛棚發展。雖然有擔任佈局投手甚至終結者的天分，但輪值圈才能發揮他最大的價值。 ps. Colome季中因為肘關節傷勢進入傷兵名單，原本預計季末回歸，但目前沒有進一步的消息。 ------ 23. Jeff Ames (22 Y.O. in Class-A) 114.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 32.2 GB%. In 2013, Jeff Ames got some quality innings under his belt, missing no time due to injuries and helping anchor Bowling Green's rotation. However, his 2.98 ERA masks several concerns. First of all, Ames was relatively old for his level. He could advance quickly if the Rays move him to relief, but for now, he will continue starting. While his ERA was very healthy, his strikeout rate dropped and his groundball rate was very low. Most likely, Ames will reach the major leagues as a reliever with a plus fastball, but it makes sense for the Rays to see if they can develop him into a middle of the rotation starter. 今年Jeff Ames投出幾場不錯的比賽，沒有因傷缺賽，並成為A很重要的輪值支柱。但ERA 2.98的背後卻有很多看不見的問題。首先，Ames是相對大齡的新人。如果他是後援在農場會升得很快，但到目前為止他還是以先發投手的角色在養。雖然 ERA很不錯，但三振率有所下滑，滾地球率也很低。Ames很可能靠著他水準之上的速球，以後援投手的姿態登上大聯盟，但光芒仍會試著把他培養成中段輪值。個人補充： Ames一直都是飛球型投手，所以偏低的滾地球率並不令人意外。但不論是在二專還是剛進入職業前幾年他的三振都維持得不錯。Ames經過完全宰制的四月後，今年比較關鍵的轉折點在五月，單月面對打者的OPS .810，然後接下來兩個月三振就銳減，直到季末兩個月才又反彈。比較悲觀的想法當然是他的天分可能已經到頂了，但在沒有明顯傷病的前提下，我願意樂觀的猜測是他撞牆後，開始加強變速球。如果能練起來，以他最快97 mph的速球和水準之上的滑球，中段輪值不會是空談。至於時間則不需要太擔心，畢竟他在二專只要靠兩種球路就足夠吃死打者，當初選他的時候就有慢慢培養的心理準備，如果能夠維持一年一個層級就算很不錯的成長了。 ------ Roberto Gomez (23 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A) 111.1 IP, 4.69 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 5.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 30.9 GB%. After posting a 2.48 ERA in 120 innings for Bowling Green in 2012, Gomez was a surprise inclusion in Baseball America's top prospects list, ranking #33. However, despite the shiny ERA, his mediocre walk, strikeout, and ground ball rates suggested that regression was in his future. That regression came in 2013, when his ERA ballooned to 4.69. His groundball rate also weakened, dropping to 30.9%. Gomez's future is most likely in the bullpen, where his pitches will hopefully play up. 去年在A交出2.48的ERA後，Gomez 意外在BA光芒農場新秀排名排到33。雖然 ERA 很棒，但平庸的保送率、三振率和滾地球率，都顯示他未來會下滑。今年ERA 馬上就膨脹到4.69，滾地球率也掉到30.9%。如果球路發展順利的話，Gomez最有機會的定位會在牛棚。個人補充： Gomez 前兩年的滾地球率還沒這麼差，今年真的掉滿多的。會不會反彈沒把握，但我覺得他的天分已經到頂了，畢竟他一開始預期的評價就很普通。速球也只有一般水準。如果有好的交易包裹，我不排斥把他換出去，他真的很有可能是Bust。 ------ Dylan Floro (22 Y.O. in Class-A and Advanced Class-A) 137.1 IP, 1.77 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 61.6 GB%. When Dylan Floro pitched well in a small sample size in 2012, a lack of hype of attention was understandable. After all, he pitched against younger players, wasn't a high pick (13th round), and his stuff was mediocre. However, with his dominant, masterful performance this year, Floro is sure to appear on the radar. From a scouting perspective, Floro won't wow people with his stuff. However, with his command and extremely high ground ball rate, Floro has a legitimate shot at being a #4 starter. 當Dylan Floro 在去年的小樣本裡交出好成績時，沒被注意是合理的，畢竟他面對的是更年輕的新秀、低順位、球質也很一般。但在今年可怕的成績之後，恐怕很難再忽視他的存在。從球探的角度來看，他沒有令人驚嘆的球質。但精準的控球和高滾地球率讓他有機會挑戰第四號先發的角色。個人補充： Floro是我今年認為最棒的農場投手。光芒在'09年選過他，當時他的球質評價相當不錯，速球還有92-93 mph，加上只有18歲，不少球探都認為他會再成長。但到了大學投球姿勢被調整後，球速卻很少到達90 mph，大多是88-89 mph在跑。取而代之的是精準的控球和高滾地球率。Floro 有不錯的滑球和變速球，但控球是他最大的武器。以他吃局數的能力，養成三四號工作馬不是問題。 ------ Damion Carroll (19 Y.O. in Rookie League) 2.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 5.77 FIP, 11.6 K/9, 7.7 BB/9, 100 GB%. When the Rays drafted Damion Carroll in the 2012 draft, he was advertised as a power arm who needed lots of refinement but offered plenty of upside. The Rays held Carroll back in the GCL this year, but he didn't pitch late until the year due to an injury, of which I cannot find details. Carroll is going to move slowly, and the injury doesn't help, but he still has significant upside. 光芒2012年選擇Damion Carroll的時候，他被視為一位需要大修投球機制的潛力三振型投手。光芒今年繼續把Carroll放在GCL，但他因為傷勢直到球季快結束才上場投球。他的進步很慢，傷勢的影響看起來又是雪上加霜，但仍舊有很高的潛力。 ------ Jake Faria (19 Y.O. in Rookie League) 62.1 IP, 2.02 ERA, 1.87 FIP, 10.3 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 43.4 GB%. Few pitchers in the low minors did more to boost their prospect standing this season than Jacob Faria. A 10th round pick in the 2011 draft, Faria had several interesting attributes but was more of a guy to keep an eye on than a good prospect. Repeating Princeton this season (not a big deal because he was 19), he was absolutely dominant, allowing few runs and posting spectacular peripherals. He works with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and will occasionally touch higher than that, and he features the typical good Rays change-up. Though his cutter/slider is a decent pitch, he needs to work on developing a quality breaking ball. 很少低階聯盟的投手像Jacob Faria進步的如此神速。'11年第10輪才被選中的他當時引起一些球探的關注，但那屆比他更好的新秀太多了。今年再次從Rk出發，他完全宰制聯盟的打者，失分少，同時還展現其他另人興奮的成長。速球穩定落在90 mph 出頭，有時可以更快，還有在光芒農場幫助下不斷精進的變速球。滑球投得還不錯，但未來還需要練落差更大的變化球。個人補充： Faria 過去兩年進階數據就不錯，但對他大幅的成長還是有些意外。另一個文章中沒提到的是，Faria 有多數年輕投手缺乏的精準控球，生涯BB/9還不到 1.5，沒有一年保送次數超過10次。這在養成上可以說是相當有利。他會不會是光芒體系下的下一個Jeremy Hellickson 還言之過早，但明年絕對不要錯過這位新秀的成長。今年A- 沒有很頂尖的投手新秀，如果光芒夠大膽，可以試著讓他在延長春訓後直接從 A出發，感受一下完整賽季的磨練。 ------ Nolan Gannon (19 Y.O. in Rookie League) 40.0 IP, 7.42 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 34.6 GB%. Like Damion Carroll, Nolan Gannon was a high school pitcher selected in the first several rounds of the 2012 draft. A very solid debut in the GCL in 2012 led to his promotion to the Appalachian League this year. Unfortunately, Gannon could not replicate his success. Although his peripherals were solid, he allowed 45 hits in 40 innings, which led to a miserable 7.42 ERA. There is still hope for Gannon to emerge as a top pitching prospect in the organization, but he certainly needs to improve from this past season. 和Damion Carroll很像，Nolan Gannon是2012年在前幾輪被選中的高中投手。在 GCL 有了不錯的處女秀後，今年來到APPL。不幸的是他沒辦法複製他去年的表現。雖然進階數據表現不錯，但40局挨了45支安打讓 ERA漲到7.42。Gannon依舊有機會成為農場裡的頂尖新人，但他需要克服過去這個賽季的低潮。個人補充： Gannon根本就是Faria 的翻版，差別在於他最擅長的球路是曲球而不是變速球， .323的 BABIP顯示他明年一定會反彈，今年在控球上的進步反倒令人有些驚喜。他的滾地球率不是我所喜歡的類型，但我相信今年的成績絕對不代表他的實力。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.235.118

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