[外電] 龍哥怎麼了?

看板Rays作者TampaBayRays (光芒今年拿冠軍)時間11年前 (2014/08/09 00:31)推噓5(5推 0噓 6→)

留言11則, 5人參與討論串1/1

http://ppt.cc/pRbx I've never been successful enough to be a victim of my own success. I can imagine the feeling though. Perhaps my writing was so well-received and so widely-read that people had come to expect five really in-depth articles per week from me. If I suddenly started producing three really well thought out and well-researched articles in a week, there might be questions about "What's wrong with Justin?" This type of thing happens in sports all the time. And I'm about to perpetuate that. Evan Longoria is the victim of his own success here. There would be no need to analyze a player on pace for 4.1 fWAR if he wasn't an incredibly successful player. Hell, a four-win season is a career-high for most guys. For Evan Longoria, though, it represents a blip. If things continue, and if Longoria does finish with somewhere around four wins this season, it would be his lowest total for a full season in his career. Longoria受害於他過去打太好,我們不會去質疑一個fWAR 4.1的球員,如果他過去沒有很出色的表現,因為這對很多人來說可以算是生涯最好的成績了,但對Longoria來說不是 ,甚至如果他到季末是這個成績的話,這將會是他生涯的低點 Longoria's career numbers leading up to this season are incredible. Aside from the injury-related dip in 2012, Longoria has performed at a level that puts him in the upper echelon of all players in the league - not just third basemen. His career WAR coming into this season was 36.1. With this season's production, Longoria ranks first in fWAR since his debut in 2008. That's 目前為止,Longoria的fWAR是2.8,打擊成績.256/.333/.395這對其他人來說不會他糟事實上,如果我不是在做這工作的,我會說Longoria打得跟以前一樣好,但這不是真的 Longoria is having a down year. He's put himself in the position of being analyzed because of his past success, but that comes with the star's territory. Let's take a look at what might be causing Longoria's dip in production. Longoria今年遇到了低潮,他因為自己過去傑出的表現讓自己備受質疑,讓我們來看看是什麼導致他陷入低潮 Longoria's career numbers leading up to this season are incredible. Aside from the injury-related dip in 2012, Longoria has performed at a level that puts him in the upper echelon of all players in the league - not just third basemen. His career WAR coming into this season was 36.1. With this season's production, Longoria ranks first in fWAR since his debut in 2008. That's right, first. Longoria的生涯成績到目前為止除了因傷所苦的2012之外都非常優秀,他的表現讓他成為一個聯盟中頂尖的球員,而不是就只是一個三壘手,他生涯的WAR到目前為止是36.1,加上本季的表現,Longoria的fWAR是排名第一的(從2008初登板開始),不要懷疑,就是第一名 Longoria ranks ahead of names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki, and more. Yet, this season, he's showing some troubling signs. It's not just a matter of his batting average and on-base percentage being down. Longoria's struggling to hit for power and it's not coming from something as simple as a lower BABIP. His BABIP is slightly lower, but not enough to correlate to his reduced power number. Longoria的排名在一些你常聽過的球星之上,例如:Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki之類的,這個球季他表現出了一些有問題的訊號但是他的打擊率和上壘率並沒有下降,Longoria的長打有點掙扎,但是這跟他的BABIP下降沒有太大的關係,他的BABIP下降的幅度並不至於導致他砲管變短 Longoria's ISO this season is nearly 100 points lower than his career average. He's only hit 13 home runs this year. While Longoria's defense isn't necessarily a liability (82.2 career UZR), most of his value has been derived from his offense. As a power-hitting third baseman, Longoria hit 20 or more home runs in each season outside of the 2012 injury-shortened season. This year, he'll struggle to get to 20. In fact, ZIPs projects Longoria to hit eight more homers on the year. That would put him at exactly 20, but we know that as good as projections are, expecting it to hit exactly is foolish. Longoria的ISO大概100,這低於他的生涯平均,雖然防守並不是Longoria的弱點,但是他大部分的價值來自於他的棒子,身為一個大砲三壘手,除了受傷的2012年,他每年可以貢獻20隻以上的全壘打,但他今年卻在為達到20轟而掙扎,儘管我們的分析數據顯示他還是可以達到20轟,但我們知道即使我們的分析很好,但是預測他打得到是很愚昧的(?) The first immediate problem we can spot in Longoria's peripheral numbers this year is his fly ball rate compared with his ground ball and line drive rates. First, look at the increase in Longoria's ground balls to fly balls. Then take a look at the decrease in HR/FB. The rest of the numbers speak for themselves. 第一個我們可以指出的問題就是Longoria的飛球和滾地球,平飛球的比例,首先,Longoria 的滾地球增加了,再來,他HR/FB下降了,其他的數據也是這麼說的 Every one of those lines indicates a problem when looked at in the context of Longoria's lower power numbers. He's hitting more line drives, more ground balls, less fly balls, and less home runs. But, of course, his rate stats for balls in play is not exactly explanatory. The question still remains: why are these numbers happening? 每項原因都指出了Longoria砲管變短的原因,他打出更多平飛球,更多滾地球,更少飛球, 更少全壘打所以他的BIP並不能說明原因,問題是:為什摩這些數據會發生? Longoria has been a relatively patient hitter at the plate in his career. For a power-hitting third baseman, his walk rates and strikeout rates haven't been horrible. As I've already mentioned, those rates are relatively unchanged this year, but Longoria is still showing less patience than he has in the past. How so? He's swinging more often, swinging at more pitches outside the zone, making less contact, and generating more swinging strikes. Longoria過去是個很有耐心的打者,身為一個強打三壘手,他的保送三振比不至於太過難看,但就像我之前所說的,這些數據在今年有了些改變,今年的Longoria比過去沒有耐心怎麼說?他更常揮棒了,更常去揮壞球,導致更少的contact和更多的三振 Longoria's swing percentage outside the zone (O-Swing%), his swing percentage inside the zone (Z-Swing%), and his overall swing percentage are all at career highs. That lack of discipline is putting him in bad situations that could be leading to more ground balls, less good balls to hit high and far, and more soft line drives. Longoria的O-Swing%(揮壞球),Z-Swing%(揮好球),和他的出棒率都是生涯新高,不節制的出棒使他陷入了一個不好的狀況,因而導至滾地球的增加和沒辦法把球打扎實 Longoria's contact rate for his career is 76.70%. This season, his contact rate is 76.60%. He's making contact just as often as he always has, but he's not making the pitcher work as much. Longoria is seeing nearly two pitches less per game this season when compared with last year. That might not seem like much, but it add up over a long season. Less pitches, less patience, more of an inclination to hit bad balls. Longoria生涯的contact rate是76.70%,而今年是76.60%,他的表現就像過去一樣,但沒有讓投手像過去一樣辛苦,Longoria相較去年來說大概每場讓投手少投兩球,但長期來說, 更少的球,更少的耐心,更強烈的出棒慾望 Unless Longoria isn't seeing the ball as well this season, as opposed to simply being aggressive, this is a very correctable problem for him. He's 28 years old, so he is still in his prime. Longoria, while having a very nice season, will likely return to the six or seven win player we know him as in the near future. As long as he stops swinging at everything thrown anywhere close to the plate, that is. 除非Longoria這季是不到球,而不是變積極了,不然確實他的一個很大的問題, 他才28歲,還在顛峰期,如果他能夠不要投手投過來的每一球都揮棒的話,我們還會再看到 Longoria表現出像過去一樣好的成績 -- ╭ ◢█◤ ╭══╮ ╭ ◢█ ◣ theanswer3╮ ║ █▌╰═════════════════╯ ★ ╰══╯ █▌ █ ╴◤ / ║ ║ ◢█◣ ◢█◣ ◢█◣ ◢█◣ ◢◢◣ ◢ ◢█◣ ◢ ◤ ￣╱＞ ║ ║ █▌ ◢ █▌█ ███ █▌█ █▌█ █◤ █ █◢█ ◥ ◣ ║ ║◢███◤◥█◤ ◥▌◤ ◥██ ◥█◤ █ ◤ ◥◤◥ █▌ █ ╰/ ║ ╰═════════════▅◤═════════════ ◥█ ◤ ═════╯ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.171.190.114 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Rays/M.1407515461.A.E05.html ※ 編輯: TampaBayRays (1.171.190.114), 08/09/2014 00:33:23