[閒聊] A look at selling

看板Rays作者Edwardex ( )時間10年前 (2015/07/15 00:54)推噓8(8推 0噓 17→)

留言25則, 6人參與討論串1/1

http://www.draysbay.com/2015/7/10/8927855/drbfc-a-look-at-selling With the Rays recent miserable run of performances I haven’t been able to avoid thinking about whether the Rays should be sellers this year instead of potential buyers. Not because they aren't a good team, they certainly are, but they are a team who have been decimated by injury and this is a strong sellers market. However, unless they are bold I am not sure the Rays have the pieces to make it worth giving up on this season. 不管FO是否決定在731要當買家還是賣家先來看看有誰可以賣吧 Asdrubal Cabrera The key issue is that the only major contract expiring at the end of the season is that of Asdrubal Cabrera. He has been worth just under 1 win in the first half of the season and can realisticalluy be projected for a similar amount going forwards. There is upside here though that a team may be willing to buy into. His defense has improved drastically this season and if a team thinks his first half with the bat was a mere slump and not a new normal he could be a very valuable player. Alternatively his defense slumps down to prior levels and his bat doesn’t improve providing you with a below replacement player. A-Cab可賣主要是因為他只有一年約而且如果明星賽前的打擊表現只是大低潮也許他的交易價值會更高 The Rays will probably believe they could replace him with Franklin or Beckham and not lose too much while saving salary and adding a prospect. Unfortunately, I don’t see Asdrubal as a big upgrade for any contending side but that is always subject to change with injuries etc. Franklin和Beckham可以取代他且不會差他太多也可以省薪水和增加prospect 但是A-Cab對買家而言好像不是多大的升級 Last year the Indians managed to pick up Zach Walters a potential high power utility infielder who strikes out a lot. Similar would not be a bad return for the Rays. Could get a top 20 organisational prospect from a contender 比照去年笑臉人用A-Cab交易的代價也許可以交易到一個Top20的prospect James Loney Similar to Cabrera in that he won’t be a big upgrade for any contender. With his strong defense a team struggling at first like the Cardinals may be willing to pounce for a small enough cost. There is also the incentive for the Rays to move him and his $8million contract for next year. $8million would be about market value so shouldn’t decrease the value for Loney. The real reason I think he could be available is that it would open up a spot for Richie Schaffer who is showing he can flat out hit in Durham. Give him this year to adjust to major league pitching and see what he can do. I am a big fan of Loney but if the Rays start selling the cap space for next season could be invaluable in building a contender for next year. Worth at least a top 20 organisational prospect 跟A-Cab一樣對買家而言並不是多大的升級但也許紅鳥會有興趣重點是可以為Richie Shaffer清位置也可以清薪資應該也可以得到Top20 prospect John Jaso/David DeJesus These two can provide teams with a left handed bat off the bench or perhaps an occasional outfielder/DH. Both are on very reasonable contracts with Jaso a free agent after the season and DeJesus having a team option that could be activated. DeJesus has a 318 wOBA so far this year and while Jaso is projected for a 339wOBA by ZiPS he comes with a much higher risk due to his injury history. Either of these player could be on the Rays next year, but it is unlikely there will be space for both. Once again there is probably little trade value but the Rays could possibly achieve an organisational prospect and gain some more roster flexibility with players coming back from injuries. Optimistically Gerrado Parra fetched two high upside low minors pitchers from Milwaukee at the deadline last year for a similar skillset to DeJesus. 因為他們都可以在季後成為FA(DeJesus有option) Jaso因為傷病史所以風險較高而且他們明年只可能留一位在隊上但是一樣交易價值都不高就是了去年Gerrado Parra交易來的2個低階小聯盟但高天花板的投手可做為回報參考 Kevin Jepsen Follows last year’s 2.63 ERA with a solid 3.34 ERA. Add in 5 saves and 17 holds this year his traditional metrics look good. However the strikeout rate has collapsed from 10.38/9 to 7.71/9. Walks have risen from 3.18/9 to 4.63 giving a FIP of 4.39. Contenders are always looking for bullpen arms though and teams may be tricked by his good results this year into giving something of value for him especially with an additional year of control after this season. Jepsen is a tough one as I am not sure how his value would be perceived. Would be after a middle reliever with years of control and upside or a good level prospect. 雖然跟去年比成績大退步但是牛棚都是買家最愛升級的位置而且他明年結束才會成為FA 應該可以交易到不錯的新秀 Jake McGee He has a 27 K/BB this season. 14.02 K/9. He is one of the best in baseball at what he does. He has two years of control left after this season. He has a 27 K/BB this season. He doesn’t qualify but that would be over double of the 1st qualifying reliever. His fastball is a thing of beauty. I don’t want to trade him ever. It is something worth thinking about. I don’t know what he is worth. I know it’s an awful lot. Last year, an expensive Soria, in his last year of control fetched two high upside pitchers from Detroit including Corry Knebel the Tiger’s No.7 prospect. The Red Sox got Eduardo Rodriguez who looks very good for half a year of Miller. McGee would be on your team for three playoff runs. He is still cheap. This is the one player who so far who I think would be truly giving up on this year. But he could get one hell of a return, maybe a good player with a lot of team control and a top prospect. 大聯盟最棒的後援投手之一而且還有2年才會成為FA 你說他值多少呢? 參考Soria和Miller的例子加上他又比較便宜應該可以交易到一名還可控制多年的不錯選手加一名頂級新秀 Jake Odorizzi If we sell all of the above I would possibly float Odorizzi as well. I know this will be very contentious. Imagine Moore and Smyly are what we know they can be when back from injury, you still have Archer. If Erasmo and Karns carry on as they have been both look like legitimate no.4s. That gives you Archer, Smyly, Moore, Erasmo and Karns to start next year. Smith and Colome at 6 and 7. Cobb coming back midseason and possibly even Snell on his way up with him. That’s too many pitchers for the 5 spots. This is all very optimistic. 我相信賣Odo會引起爭議但是想像一下 Moore和Smyly都健康回來我們有王牌Archer 小拉米和Karns又持續表現的跟4號投手一樣明年就會有Archer Smyly Moore 小拉米和Karns的堅強輪值 Smith和Colome會是備胎先發(Andriese:還有我阿) Cobb會回來 Snell也有機會進輪值不過當然這是在最樂觀的情形之下 But the projection systems don’t believe in his sub 3 ERA and FIP thinking he will be much closer to 4. If, and only if, you can get teams to buy him as an ace. An ace with so much team control who hasn’t proven himself in the long term and hasn’t topped 200 innings. If you can convince the Cubs that he is worth Russell and a lot more I would possibly do it. Young, cost controlled elite positional talent is the game’s premier currency. We would have to get some of that. 一般都不太相信他的表現能夠持續他應該就是個比4號還要好的投手如果可以趁他表現的像ACE時把他賣掉的話....嗯....... 一個還可以便宜用很久但是還沒證明一年可吃200局的ACE 如果你可以讓小熊相信的話他應該值Russell再加上一些elite prospect Overall, I don’t think the Rays have much to sell. But if it is done well there is a chance to gain a lot of flexibility going into next season while bringing in some very good players from McGee and Odorizzi. Add that in to what you can get for Cabrera, Loney, DeJesus and Jepsen I think you can improve the Rays for the future without also sacrificing 2016. Even if the Rays aren’t giving up on this year I would be tempted to trade DeJesus and Jepsen the keep some flexibility and maximize assets. 以上可能都是幻想因為我不認為光芒會全部把他們賣光光但是如果賣的好的話明年的陣容會多很多彈性賣McGee和Odo絕對可以得到很好的回報賣A-Cab Loney DeJesus和Jepsen對明年的競爭力也不會有太大影響在光芒還沒有放棄本季之前我建議優先交易DeJesus和Jepsen 可以增加球隊的彈性和資產最大化這篇文章提供一些交易的可能性大家討論看看吧~ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.164.133.120 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Rays/M.1436892896.A.1C9.html

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