[討論] Youkilis和襪軍

看板RedSox作者flywhale (瘦化)時間17年前 (2008/08/14 15:47)推噓5(5推 0噓 6→)

留言11則, 9人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

在BASEBALL ANALYSTS(http://baseballanalysts.com/)有一篇文章 So I Went to a Baseball Game Last Night(By Patrick Sullivan) 在最後提到了Youkilis，節錄如下（翻譯部份大家湊和著看就好) 3) With his second home run of the game (a frozen rope over the monster) to give the Red Sox a lead in the bottom of the eighth last night, Kevin Youkilis got Fenway feeling like loud, intense, playoff-push Fenway again. And really, it's time to start talking about Youk as an MVP candidate. I don't necessarily think he is the most deserving candidate, but you look up and down BP's VORP list and A-Rod isn't getting it, and nobody from the Rangers or Indians is either. That leaves Youk, who is now hitting .316/.384/.564 while mixing in some good defense and big moments as well. With Mike Lowell potentially heading to the DL, he will also get to display his defensive versatility, which should only help his case. Youkilis棒子燙到不行，讓人會把他聯想到MVP的角逐中，在VORP的排行中，目前領先 Youk的的除了A-Rod外，其它都來自TEX/CLE。而他的好防守也可以在MVP角逐中幫忙他。 At first glance you might think Youkilis is a great candidate for a nice pre-arb free agent deal but I am not so sure. He is slugging 100 points higher than his career slugging percentage this season and at age 29, it's hard to imagine him getting much better. He has publicly expressed frustration in the past with how the Red Sox managed his service time clock early in his career and right now he looks like a man on a mission. He wants that big free agent deal. So if you're the Red Sox, you can; 乍看之下Youk應該可以贏得一張在仲裁前的自由球員合約(pre-arb free agent deal)。但我不這麼認為，Youk今年SLG比生涯平均高上.100而他是29歲，很難想像Youk會再進步。而Youk曾經公開表示他對於紅襪高層在他生涯早期的上場時間感到沮喪而他現在他是個真貨。他想要一張大合約，所以如果你是the cold-blood Theo，你可以: - Extend him (say, four years $40 million), and run the risk that his incentive structure becomes out of whack. 簽個長約，4年40M，然後冒著今年是fluke的風險 - Let him play out these years, needing to grind for every penny. The risk here is that relations become strained between Youk and the club but beyond that, what's the downside for the Red Sox here? That they lose out on him to the highest bidder for his 32-37 seasons? Oh well, I am sure that's a fate they can live with. 讓Youk在FA之前留在襪軍，壓榨任何一毛錢。這樣的風險是Youk跟襪軍高層會搞得很緊張。但這麼做襪軍不利的一面是什麼呢? 襪軍會不會是那個最高的出價者而失去他在 Youk32-37歲時。 Oh, 我想那是襪軍可以面對的結果。 If I am the Red Sox I'd keep that fire lit under his ass and make him go year-to-year until he becomes unrestricted. Then you make your call if you want to enter the bidding. 如果我是襪軍，我會在Youk屁股上點火每年都好好打球直到他成為FA。然後在決定是否要競標他。我的心得： Youkilis是我很喜愛的球員，往年下半季開始鳥蛋的情況今年反而整個改變。可以看出來他在這個問題有下過功夫。我想或許是他就是那種不具備顯見的頂極天賦使得他在27 歲(06年)才站穩MLB。而進入球員生涯的高峰期打出了至今Career Year的成績很是替他高興。當然希望他打敗EE的A-Rod拿下MVP。另外就是作者提到是不是要在現在或今年跟Youk簽下一張大合約的問題。這部份很值得玩味，作者點出了GM在面對球員及合約的想法。球員的立場其實沒什麼討論的。不值得討論的原因有一、球員當然希望有大合約。二、還在仲裁期間球員的沒有什麼決定權。而球團的立場就如作者所說，一方面當然是不希望跟Youk搞僵（雖然Youk已經有點不滿了），但的確，最好的策略可能就是一年一年仲裁，到了FA，Youk也32歲，到時再來簽大約也不遲（當然要冒著Youk不想待在襪軍的風險）。而在球迷的立場，當然是希望喜愛球員一直待著。但Business Is Business，不值得的球員就不會有Theo的愛，從Normar,Pedro,Manny的例子歷歷在目。雖然不願意這麼想，但老爹的傷通問題可能會使他終有一天離開襪軍。而也因為我們有The Cold-Blood Theo，你會預期在他任內，襪軍永遠是playoff contender. -- 生涯563 本的十月先生Reggie Jackson: "每個打者都喜歡快速球, 就像所有人都喜歡吃冰淇淋但如果有人以加侖為單位往你嘴巴裡塞冰淇淋, 可就一點都不喜歡當Nolan Ryan 用快速球讓你措手不及的時候, 就是這種機歪的感覺" -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.113.23.101 ※ 編輯: flywhale 來自: 140.113.23.101 (08/14 15:48) ※ 編輯: flywhale 來自: 140.113.23.101 (08/14 15:52)