2013 Five Questions: Colorado Rockies

看板Rockies作者ygjhsu (杰)時間11年前 (2013/03/14 23:11)推噓7(7推 0噓 15→)

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比較務實的分析來了... 今年還是不期不待吧 XD Five questions: Colorado Rockies by Derek Ambrosino March 14, 2013 原文: http://0rz.tw/ZAAjV : It wasn’t that long ago that the Colorado Rockies looked like a trendy : sleeper pick to win what seemed to a mediocre NL West; I believe I picked : them to win that division two years ago. Fast forward to today and their best : player is a perennial injury risk and their rotation has morphed from : interesting, young, and with upside to a mix of question marks and train : wrecks. 還記得不久前，洛磯隊看起來像是能夠在弱小國西勝出的球隊。精確一點來說，2年前的開季我預測他們能拿下這個分區。醒醒吧，洛磯球迷，今天你們最好的球員動不動就受傷你們的輪值乍看之下年輕充滿希望，結果每個投手都不穩定，甚至爆炸。 : Colorado should be operating with a multi-year plan in mind, using this : season to transition from some veterans, explore various options to acquire : pitching talent, and derive definitive opinions on its younger position : players. 洛磯隊要時常把長期建構藍圖放在心中，本季應試著把老將交易出去，提升投手深度。另外，也要從年輕野手中尋找長期的答案 (譯按:此處應是指野手陣容卡著兩張大約，很難再從FA挖重砲。因此更加需要年輕野手能夠成為全隊長期支柱。讓剩下的薪資空間可以拿來簽投手) : The questions I’ve posed below are a bit about this year, but they are also : about the big picture—what has to happen in 2013 to position the Rockies to : re-emerge as contenders in the near future? 我以下所列的問題，只有一部分跟今年有關。洛磯隊的重點應放在未來：究竟這支球隊今年要達成什麼目標，才能在短時間內重返競爭季後賽之林? What to do about the pitching staff? 投手陣容怎麼樣? : While I want to speak big picture, we can’t ignore the present. The first : thing that strikes me about the Rockies is their complete lack of a reliable : pitching staff. While there are some holes and question marks in the lineup, : the factor pushing down the ceiling of this team with phenomenal force is a : dearth of pitching skill and depth. Last season, the Rockies abandoned : convention and went to an approach in which starting pitchers were capped 75 : pitches—not out of a need to protect them, but in an attempt to harvest some : modicum of efficacy, even if for only three or four innings. In 2013, they : plan to keep this approach, and even refine it, pairing starters with long : relievers. 雖然我們放眼未來，但是不可以忽略當前情勢。首先，洛磯隊完全沒有可靠的投手，這點讓我很震驚。雖然這支球隊的打線也有些問題，但真正會讓戰績一蹶不振的關鍵絕對是好投手不夠多。上一季，洛磯隊放棄傳統5人輪值，搞出4人輪值，先發只能投75球的新招 (譯按：以為是在玩WBC嗎? 怒!)注意喔，這不是因為教練團要保護投手，而是在短短3-4局內，能夠讓投手的威力得以發揮。在2013年，球團打算繼續亂搞，堅持我們有我們的玩法，甚至要把先發跟長中繼配成對，一起出賽。 (...................................) : This actually is not far from an interesting strategy I had always wanted to : see the Rockies try, except my idea would have been implemented by design and : not out of desperation. I always thought building a staff out of middle : relievers and swing men, putting most hands on deck each night, constantly : playing match-ups, and adding a de facto rotating DH by virtually never : allowing the pitcher to hit would be an interesting approach to maximize : Colorado’s inherent biases. But they have neither the tools for my Veeck-ian : experiment, not a successful outcome from a conventional approach. 看起來有夠怪，但其實這是一個很有意思的策略，我一直以來都希望洛磯隊試試看。不過我不樂見球隊在沒有詳細規畫之下，就讓4人輪值草創實施，只因為他們走投無路，死馬當活馬醫。依我之見，應該將比賽中段的中繼，跟能夠先發後援兩頭跑的投手，組成一個堅強的牛棚，每晚勤於調度，視對戰球隊的打者不斷換投。這樣的話就能夠避免投手打擊，另外安排一組打者輪流代打，權充DH的腳色。這是一個有趣的辦法，可以讓褲兒濕極端打者球場的特性得以發揮。但是這支球隊一直沒有夠好的投手來嘗試我的實驗，去年的四人輪值也沒有獲得該有的功效。 : Jorge De la Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin once held appeal as fantasy sleepers, and : Drew Pomeranz boasts youth and impressive stuff, but at this point every : pitcher slated in the Rockies' starting rotation would have to overcome the : odds to compile league-average numbers. 洛磯隊的輪值有誰呢? JDLR與Chacin，這兩位曾經FB後段可以期待的潛力股。還有年輕、有很好stuff的Pomeranz。不過現在看起來，每位表定在輪值內的先發，都必須竭盡全力，才能交出聯盟平均水準的數據 (譯按: 4-man rotation sucks!) Can their young stars stay healthy? 年輕巨星能戰否? : A healthy Troy Tulowitzki is a potential MVP-level player, and not many : teams can boast one of those. The problem is that Tulo has played 140 games : or more in only three of the previous six seasons. Carlos Gonzalez is also a : force to be reckoned with, but he’s missed an average of roughly 30 games : per season over his last three. There are some intriguing young bats in the : Rockies' lineup, but without these two sluggers as the backbone of the offense : —and defense, in the case of Tulo—the Rockies won’t have the firepower to : slug their way to overcome their dreadful pitching staff. 不是很多球隊都有夠格拿MVP的選手，健康的Troy Tulowitzki絕對有這個實力。不過過去6個球季，Tulo打超過140場的只有3季，傷痛問題堪憂。MVP候選人也不要忘了Carlos Gonzalez，不過他過去三季也平均每季缺席30場。洛磯隊打線年輕充滿活力，但如果攻守兩端缺少這兩位超級巨星，打擊火力就不足以彌補投手端的大量掉分。 (譯按：看看去年就知道了...) When does the next generation arrive, and will they “arrive?” 明日之星在哪裡，他們會來嗎? : Although 2013 looks bleak overall for the Rockies, the season is not without : hope, especially on individual levels. Dexter Fowler, Wilin Rosario and Josh : Rutledge are all players who, if they continue to take steps forward, can : cement themselves as valuable and viable pieces of a playoff-caliber team. : These are the types of young, relatively inexpensive producers the team needs : to position itself to make noise in the near future. 儘管洛磯隊的2013球季看來只有一個慘字，但球迷也不要放棄得太早，還有一些球員值得期待。Dexter Fowler, Wilin Rosario和Josh Rutledge，如果能百尺竿頭，更進一步，便能成為季後賽強隊也不可或缺的要角。他們年輕又不貴，可以讓球隊在近幾年內當一個攪局者。 : On the pitching side, Pomeranz and Rex Brothers are potential bright spots, : while at age 24, Chacin has the potential to right himself quickly and : reclaim the label of a promising young arm with weak two- to solid : three-starter potential? 至於投手，同樣24歲的Pomeranz跟Brothers有機會冒出頭。Chacin有機會修正去年的低潮重回期待投手的行列，並將落磯輪值補強嗎? (譯按：這裡不太確定是什麼意思) : Other names that might make a mark in 2013 include Tyler Colvin and Nolan : Arenado. 另外別忘了Tyler Colvin跟Nolan Arenado，他們有機會在2013年有所發揮。 : Colvin is slated to begin the season as a back-up, but will likely get ample : time as a fourth outfielder and will find his way into the lineup when the : annual Todd Helton injury takes place. Arenado will most likely begin the : season in the minors, but has been one of the game's more touted offensive : prospects for a while, despite seeing his stock drop a bit after a : disappointing 2012. He has a pretty poor defensive rep at third base, but : Chris Nelson is penciled in as the team’s starter at the hot corner and he : turned in a -2.1 defensive WAR in 2012, so if Arenado can mash, he’s likely : no worse with the glove than the status quo. Colvin表定開季從板凳出發，以四號外野手找些零星時間出賽，不過當每年都會發生的 Helton大叔受傷時，他的機會就來了。Arenado曾經是最受期待的打擊新秀，不過因為2012 年打得不夠亮眼，期待度略微下滑，預計從小聯盟開季。聽說他三壘守的不太好，不過看看本季洛磯隊預計先發三壘手，Chris Nelson去年防守WAR只有-2.1...恩，只要Arenado 你不要守太爛還是可以上得來。 What will they sell, and what will they get for it? 跳樓大拍賣囉! 該賣什麼? 能拿到什麼? : Ignoring for the moment the rumors of a potential pre- or midseason Tulo : trade, the Rockies still have some pieces that I could easily see contenders : coming to call for come midseason. 先不提Tulo可能被交易的謠言，洛磯隊季中仍然會是要搶進季後賽球隊覬覦的對象。 : I’ve always liked Michael Cuddyer; his versatility and above-average stick, : along with a perfectly tolerable $21 million over two years could make a nice : addition to many a contender. This move would make even more sense if Colvin : starts to distinguish himself and proves deserving of regular playing time. Michael Cuddyer一直是不錯的球員：能夠站很多位置，棒子也高於平均。更重要的是，兩年21M不算太肥的合約，相信會是強隊樂於補強的目標。對於洛磯隊來說，如果Colvin 能夠證明他可以站穩外野先發，那麼就更有本錢交易Cuddyer了。 : By the same token, Rafael Betancourt will draw a ton of interest, as a fully : capable closer and overqualified set-up man making $4.25 million in 2013 with : an option for 2014. In fact, Betancourt is such a bargain that I think this : is the reason why he didn’t get dealt last year or in the offseason. He’s a : high-quality player whose departure would not shed much salary. But, : realistically, his contract window doesn’t align with the next potential : crest of the Rockies, so it would make sense to dangle him as potentially the : top reliever prize of the deadline and extract a legitimate asset or two. 以此類推，Rafael Betancourt也會是市場大熱門。Betancourt完全可以勝任終結者的角色如果你是洋基隊還可以把它當Setup用。這麼好用的投手多貴呢? 不貴今年才4.25M，明年甚至還有option。我想就是因為Betancourt這麼讚，球隊才沒在去年季中或季後把他交易掉。他的離開將會造成球隊巨大的損失，薪資也省不到哪去。但是，現實一點吧，幾年後洛磯會被Tulo跟Gonzalez綁住，沒有多的錢來留Betancourt，倒不如以頂級後援投手的價碼把他賣掉，在交易日前再換幾個大物來。 What would a successful 2013 look like? 欸...洛磯今年怎樣算是成功? : Success looks different for different teams. While anything short of winning : a playoff series may be a disappointment for teams like the Dodgers, Yankees : or Angels, for a team like the Rockies, a reasonable goal is to be in a : better place than they are now come next spring. This will be achieved by : seeing young players develop, as well as by exchanging higher paid veterans : whose peaks don’t fit the trajectory of the team for younger assets, : hopefully of the pitching variety. 成功對不同球隊的定義會不一樣。對於道奇、洋基或天使這種強隊來說，沒進季後賽球迷肯定會很失望。不過對今年的洛磯隊，重點應放在加強戰力，讓明年開季的陣容更好。年輕球員不斷的成長，或是將高薪的球員拿去換潛力新秀，讓投手陣容多一些希望，對於洛磯隊來說就算成功了。 : Seeing Tulo play a full season, Wilin Rosario prove 2012 was not a fluke, : Dexter Fowler become a borderline star, Rex Brothers solidify himself as a : fearsome reliever, and Drew Pomeranz show at least consistent glimpses of : what made him a top-25 prospect are all things that I’d consider more : important than actual final season record. Remember, Tulo and Cargo are : locked up long term, the philosophy in 2013 should be to avoid the temptation : to be penny-wise and pound-foolish. (1) Tulo能夠健康打滿整季 (2) Rosario沒有二年級症 (3) Fowler成為準明星 (4) Rex Brothers上場時就準備唱晚安曲 (5) Pomeranz證明他曾是超級新秀的身手以上這幾件事我認為比今年的最終戰績更重要。記住，Tulo跟Cargo都被球隊砸大錢綁長約因此最不該犯的錯誤，就是今年把小錢省下，卻在來年把球隊的payroll給拖垮了! -- "每個夢想成為棒球選手的小孩子，都會拿著球棒站在院子裡，告訴自己「九局下半，滿壘」，然後幻想自己自己打出全壘打贏得比賽。而我的工作就是粉碎這個夢想！" <<國訓白教練回憶錄>> ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)

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03/14 22:35, , 1^F

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依版友建議上下合成一篇 ※ 編輯: ygjhsu 來自: 210.61.97.213 (03/14 23:03)

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03/14 23:04, , 2^F

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※ 編輯: ygjhsu 來自: 210.61.97.213 (03/14 23:06)

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