[討論] 2011 MLB Draft: Kansas City Royals Review
by John Sickels on Jun 11, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
2011 MLB Draft: Kansas City Royals Review
The Royals draft is the exact opposite of the Detroit Tigers draft: all
upside and tools, little polish. Was the "we want college pitching" stuff
just a smokescreen?
說好的大學投手呢???????
1) Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas HS: Starling is local but he's also the best
athlete in the draft, with super-star potential as a center fielder. Power,
speed, arm strength, he has everything except experience against top-notch
high school competition. Best-case outcome: 30/30 player with excellent
outfield defense and a hometown, Mauer-like franchise face. Worst-case
outcome: Scott Boras gets him a giant contract, but it turns out Starling
can't hit Double-A breaking stuff.
2) Cam Gallagher, C, Pennsylvania HS: Good defensive catcher, has power
potential but swing mechanics need polish. He could be an All-Star catcher if
the bat develops as hoped, but it will take time.
3) Bryan Brickhouse, RHP, Texas HS: Erratic and needs polish but can hit
94-95 MPH and has a promising curveball. Strong North Carolina commitment.
4) Kyle Smith, RHP, Florida HS: Roy Oswalt-type with good velocity out of a
smallish-but-athletic body (6-0, 180). More polished than Brickhouse but not
as physical. Strong University of Florida commitment.
5) Patrick Leonard, OF, Texas HS: Unrefined power hitter, some scouts think
he needs to go to college and work on hitting breaking stuff, which he
currently has problems with. Strong University of Georgia commitment.
6) Cesar Ogando, LHP, Caribbean Junior College (Puerto Rico): Outside-the-box
pick but interesting, low-90s fastball, good curveball and changeup, bulky
6-3 body draws Sabathia comparisons.
7) Kellen Moen, RHP, Oregon: First college guy, an affordable senior with a
90-93 MPH fastball, solid curveball and changeup.
8) Evan Beal, RHP, Virginia HS: Doesn't throw hard, just 85-86 right now, but
physically projectable. Strong University of South Carolina commitment.
9) Aaron Brooks, RHP, Cal State San Bernadino: Mediocre velocity, mediocre
breaking stuff, but he got college hitters out due to superb control, 2.74
ERA with 78/8 K/BB in 92 innings.
10) Matt Murray, RHP, Georgia Southern: Low-90s fastball, decent changeup,
but mediocre breaking ball will need to be improved if he wants to avoid
bullpen.
OTHERS OF NOTE: OF Jerrell Allen (11th round, Delaware HS) is blazing fast
but extremely raw. LHP Adam Schemenauer (12th round, Missouri HS) is another
local talent of interest as a 6-9, 220 pound pitcher, but has a University of
Louisville commitment. LHP Stephen Lumpkins (13th round, American University)
is another huge (6-8) lefty but is raw for a college guy. 1B Dean Espy (15th
round, UCLA) has polish but doesn't have normal first base power.
SUMMARY: Definite high-risk, high-reward draft. Starling is the epitome of
that, but most of the draft has that theme. Starling could be a superstar,
Gallagher could be an excellent regular catcher, and both Brickhouse and
Smith could be front-line starters. But this draft won't come cheap given the
college committments, and no one likely to make a big impact is close to the
majors.
It will be at least three and probably five years before this group can be
fairly assessed. Royals scouts have shown themselves adept at judging the
quality of high school hitters (Hosmer, Moustakas) in recent drafts. How
rapidly will Starling develop?
很明顯是高風險高報酬的選秀，波霸就是最大的例子。他可以成為巨星，Gallagher可以
成為傑出的固定捕手，Brickhouse跟Smith都可能推上前線。但是都沒有大學歷練，也沒
有一個大物是很接近大聯盟的。
這個至少要3到5年才能看出今年選的如何，我們家球探近幾年看高中打者的能力還不錯
(Hosmer, Moustakas)，那麼波霸會進步的多快呢?
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