[BP]Raiding or Raising the East
Baseball Prospectus 討論到MLB和NPB未來可能的關係, 以及如何讓NPB和MLB平衡發展
Raiding or Raising the East?
by David Pinto
Professional Japanese baseball faces an uncertain future.
With the success of Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, the World
Baseball Classic win, and the hoopla surrounding Daisuke
Matsuzaka, Major League Baseball sees Japan as a new pool
of talent for North American teams. Through the posting
system and soon through signing talent out of school, the
one-way flow of stars from the Eastern to the Western
Hemisphere could drain talent from the Far East. Unless
talent--star talent--actually flows both ways across the
Pacific, the Japanese major leagues may slide into outright
dependence on Major League Baseball instead of becoming a
major league equal.
Earlier this year, Robert Whiting wrote a four-part series
on Japanese baseball. The first part of the series he
titled, "Is the MLB destroying Japan's national pastime?"
The question requires serious consideration, as the majors
leagues have a history of turning independent leagues into
vassals. In his Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James
goes to great lengths to educate readers about the
independence of minor league teams in the early days of
baseball. These organizations were professional leagues
that were in the business of winning championships, not
developing talent for the majors. Over time, and especially
after the supreme court granted Major League Baseball an
anti-trust exemption, the majors used their economic clout
to force small town teams into the service of big city
clubs.
Perhaps even worse was the outright destruction of the
Negro Leagues. The owners of affiliated minor league teams
at least were supplied players and financial compensation
for their loss of autonomy. The Negro Leagues were simply
driven out of business, as the big leagues simply plucked
players away with no compensation. Major League Baseball
could have paid Negro League teams for the players they
signed. They could have entered into working agreements
with Negro League clubs to make them part of the farm
system. But as usual, Major League Baseball was only
interested in acquiring inexpensive talent.
Are these the fates facing Japanese teams? It doesn't need
to be so. Dr. Daniel Drezner is an associate professor of
international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and
Diplomacy at Tufts University, and also a huge baseball
fan. In discussing the WBC with Dan, the professor
expressed the thought that the tournament represented a
huge foreign policy success for the United States. At the
time of the announcement of the Classic, Dr. Drezner noted
in a Newsday op-ed that the loss of the Olympics wasn't a
bad deal for baseball, because by taking control of the
world game, MLB gets to use its "soft power" to promote the
game on its own terms:
If the globalization of baseball advances the national
interest, which venue works best? The Baseball Classic may
be much smaller than the Olympic Games, but its
participants suggest the power and scope of the
organization. Teams from six continents comprising roughly
a third of the world’s population and half of the global
economy are represented. The Pacific Rim, currently the
most dynamic region of the global economy, has numerous
participants.
...
If managed and promoted properly, the Classic has the
potential to take on the attributes of soccer’s World Cup-
–an event that inspires much more global passion than the
Olympics. A recent IOC report observed that more than 110
countries have national baseball federations. The potential
for future growth is there. At worst, the Classic will
generate as much global interest as the world competitions
for rugby and cricket.
And what better way to promote the WBC than to ensure a
high level of competition across the world, starting in the
Pacific Rim? The goal of Major League Baseball and Nippon
Professional Baseball (NPB) should be to create a Japanese
league on par with the best professional teams in the AL
and NL. But that means both sides need to show a
willingness to make structural and cultural changes, with
MLB using its "soft power" to bring about changes in Japan.
Maybe the toughest thing to change is the notion that
whatever benefits major league owners benefits baseball. In
order to make this game a worldwide phenomenon, MLB should
be willing to take short term losses for long term gains.
For example, scouts are in the Far East looking to sign the
best players from that region to bring into the US minor
league system. The Japanese should be encouraged to do the
same in the US system. And that means abolishing the draft,
so all amateurs are free agents. As last week's article
argued, the draft no longer maintains parity in the majors;
helping Asian teams acquire good talent can be used as a
reason to dissolve the institution. Yes, the Japanese will
lose potential stars to US teams, but by drawing from a
larger pool of players, the quality of the league should
remain good, and over time improve, especially as the world
population increases and more people play baseball.
In general, MLB needs to encourage a much more free flow of
players between North America and the NPB. Rather than the
current posting system, direct trades between the leagues
would mean that Japanese teams get compensated without
losing talent. Japanese teams should compete for American
free agents, bringing our stars across the Pacific to boost
interest in their teams. Imagine the publicity if someone
like Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yomiuri Giants. MLB
attendance boomed after players started freely moving
between North American teams; that dynamism might help
Japan, too.
There are two structural problems to correct before any of
this can take place, however. First, there's a shortage of
professional general managers, and second, there's no minor
league system. The second point is why Japanese players
wait nine years to become free agents. They usually come
out of high school straight onto the major league roster.
They don't receive the years of development time you see in
North America, so they become free agents at about the same
age as their MLB brethren. In the last fifteen years, MLB
created four new franchises and four new minor league
systems, so there is plenty of expertise available to help
NPB in this regard. With a similar minor league system,
major league rules covering arbitration and free agency
could apply to Japan as well.
The first point is the easiest to address, thanks to a glut
of managerial talent. As I noted after the MIT Sloan Sports
Business Conference:
The conference left me hopeful for the future of the
sports industry. Given the attendance, there are a very
large number of young business people looking to make their
mark in the world of sports. Unfortunately for them, there
are only a limited number of jobs. With supply outstripping
demand, the sports industry gets to hire the most
extraordinary applicants and pay them ordinary wages (at
least as entry level employees). I hope this means we're in
for an era of business innovation among all sports.
All of this requires that NPB drops the desire to (as
Whiting puts it) "limit the number of 'gaijin suketto'
(foreign helpers)." Here's where MLB needs to wield its
"soft power" with some precision--MLB must act in a way
that convinces NPB that they are considered equals.
However, Japanese baseball must also be made aware that
without changes to their game, the North American teams
will continue to draw off talent to the point of leaving no
players worth posting, and a game in a state of decline.
Little League is actually a great example of this use of
"soft power." The prestige of the Little League World
Series forces countries to stick to the rules enacted in
Williamsport rather than risk losing a berth in the
tournament.
As Major League Baseball embarks on a global growth
strategy, it should be aware that it has the power to ruin
as well as enhance foreign baseball leagues. With Japan
winning the World Baseball Classic and supplying a steady
stream of stars to North America, the NPB is ripe for
integration into the North American system. A successful
working agreement that preserves the independence of the
teams while improving the level of play would lay a
foundation for spreading the game to the rest of the world
--imagine major league-level play in the EU, Africa, and
China. By helping Japan develop into a equal among major
leagues, MLB can show they will not unfairly dominate the
sport. Therein lies the path to global success.
--
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