[外電] Wolves preseason scout

看板Timberwolves (明尼蘇達灰狼)作者sato111 (Zenko)時間13年前 (2011/12/15 20:06)推噓7(7推 0噓 21→)

留言28則, 8人參與討論串1/1

http://bbs.hoopchina.com/2998984.html http://hoopshype.com/rumors/tag/minnesota_timberwolves LUKE RIDNOUR, PG 預測: 17.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 15.66 PER | Player card ‧ P&R的專家有很好的中距離，會在行進間拋射. ‧ 低得分的快槍俠.處理球能力不錯但球場視野尚可. ‧ 敏銳的防守者，但在背位單打時容易被解決，糟糕的進攻終結者 Coming off a Fluke Rule season in which he shot staggeringly well on midrange jumpers, it wasn't a shock that Ridnour's output declined. However, the decline was limited by another excellent shooting season from Ridnour, who now has to be considered among the game's top midrange marksmen. Last season Ridnour shot 47.8 percent on 2-pointers beyond 10 feet, which again put him in the league's top 10 (see Beno Udrih comment). While this was a far cry from the absurd 56.6 percent he made a season earlier, it still helped him to strong field goal and True Shooting percentages. However, he needs to shoot that well from outside because Ridnour is one of the game's most wretched finishers at the rim -- his 51.3 percent mark would have been the league's worst last season if he'd had enough attempts, and he's annually among the leading contenders in that competition. Ridnour has become effective at short floaters, however, and he also surprised with last season's 44 percent mark on 3s, although it's not a shot he takes frequently and I doubt that accuracy rate will hold. As a distributor he remains solid, once again averaging a shade over seven assists per 40 minutes, although his turnover ratio spiked --perhaps a consequence of being the team's only decent ball handler. As for his defense, it depends on whom he's guarding. The smaller and quicker the opponent, the more effective Ridnour is, and he gets his hands on a fair number of balls. But he's both short and small-framed, and bigger guards destroy him on post-ups. Overall, he allowed a 17.4 PER to opposing point guards, and statistically the Wolves weren't any worse with the likes of Sebastian Telfair or Jonny Flynn on the court than Ridnour. WESLEY JOHNSON, SG 預測: 13.7 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.0 ast per 40 min; 10.67 PER ‧ 寬厚的手臂打著2號位，完全依靠定點跳投 ‧ 需要改善處理球與進攻直覺，很少被犯規 ‧ 不錯的防守者擁有靈活度，會蓋火鍋在籃板方面也能做出幫助 Given that Johnson is already 24 and comes off a fairly unimpressive rookie season, it's fair to wonder if he was drafted several spots too high. He'll be a rotation player because he can defend and make open jump shots, but to be a long-term starter Johnson needs to dramatically improve his offensive efficiency. Johnson also was playing out of position as a shooting guard last season and may fare better as a small forward; unfortunately, the Wolves would either have to shake up their rotation or trade him to enable such a switch. As for his play, Johnson disappointed with how reliant he was on his jump shot.For the season he took 533 shots from beyond 15 feet and only 86 at the rim; he's not a good enough shooter to get away with that. Johnson struggled on long 2s, making 37.7 percent, and on 3s he was an unspectacular 35.6 percent.Thanks to all the jumpers he had the fourth-lowest free throw rate among shooting guards, and the seventh-worst TS%. One adjustment that may improve his scoring is having him post up more; he was effective doing that in college and has a size advantage on most 2s. Besides, he sure as hell can't be worse than Darko. However, Johnson's offensive instincts are also a problem; he needs to find himself easy baskets by running the floor and cutting off the ball. Defensively he showed more potential. Johnson ranked third among shooting guards in blocks per minute, and his other metrics placed him at or near the middle of the pack at his position. For a rookie making a position switch,that's an accomplishment. MICHAEL BEASLEY, SF 預測: 24.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 16.59 PER ‧荒唐的左翼球員，帶著敏捷的第一步向左進攻，他很熱愛中距離 ‧ 攻守意識缺乏.很依賴跳投.幾乎每次都向左 ‧ 次等的防守者，是個搖擺人打球總是很隨意 Better as a 4. First, the good news: Beasley created a ton of shots, averaging 23.7 points per 40 minutes and ranking fourth among small forwards in usage rate, and it's hard to knock him too much for a mediocre TS% given the other options that were on the floor with him. A bad shot from Beasley was still superior to a good shot from many of the other players with whom he shared the floor. He took a ton of long 2s (590 of them, to be exact) and needs to get to the basket more, but many of those shots came in bad shot-clock situations. The problem is that he contributed so little else. Beasley isn't a good passer or ball handler; in particular, his right hand touches the ball about as often as I touch a comb. As a result only two small forwards had a worse pure point rating, and with so much offense running through him that's a major problem. Additionally, Beasley's drives often left him thwarted shy of the rim; he had more attempts from 3 to 9 feet than at the rim, and his success rate was dramatically worse (39.6 percent versus 65.6 percent). And then there's the defense and the attitude. Sometimes simultaneously -- often he'd stop to argue a call and give the opponent an easy 5-on-4. Synergy's stats rated him the fifth-worst small forward defensively, while 82games.com says he was lit for a 19.3 PER by opposing small forwards. Power forwards, at 17.7, didn't do quite as well, supporting the data from his Miami years that Beasley is more effective at the 4. Alas, that's unlikely to happen given Minnesota's current roster makeup, and Beasley's other antics have made him essentially untradeable. DERRICK WILLIAMS, PF ‧ 多功能鋒線球員裡外都能得分，以4號位身材較矮 ‧ 有攻擊性且聰敏.非常有能量的跳躍專家但靈活性稍差 ‧ 平均能力的籃板者.不是很偉大的防守者，不太會賣火鍋 Williams tried selling himself as a small forward leading into the draft, but he measured at 6-9 with long arms and weighs 248 pounds at the age of 20; the only bigger power forwards in the league right now are LeBron James and, er, Michael Beasley.If Williams isn't a full-time power forward already, he will be within two years. That presents a conundrum for the Wolves since they already have an All-Star at power forward; if Williams proves ready, the seemingly obvious solution is to play Kevin Love at center and try to win 120-110. Williams should be able to score right away in the pick-and-pop game; he shot 56.8 percent on college 3s last season (!), albeit on a small sample of attempts, and the threat of his shot sets up drives much in the way it does for the Hornets' David West. KEVIN LOVE, C 預測: 23.3 pts, 17.1 reb, 2.9 ast per 40 min; 24.80 PER ‧ 攻守兩方的籃板大師，擁有絕對領域 ‧ 不錯的定點跳投者與，偉大的快攻傳球專家，受限的低位能力 ‧ 貧乏的防守者.有身材但移動性或對抗後的投籃都很差 The most amazing part about Love's season is that, at the outset, his coach wasn't totally sure if he was any good; Love averaged 28.4 minutes in the opening nine games until his 31-point, 31-rebound game against New York on Nov. 12 finally hammered home the obvious fact that he was the team's best player. It was the NBA's first 30-30 game in a quarter century, and a springboard for Love to win the rebounding title. In addition to leading power forwards in both rebound rate and defensive rebound rate (he was third overall in both categories), having the top PER at his position, and rather shockingly scoring 22.4 points per 40 minutes with hardly a single play called for him, Love showcased a variety of other superlatives. He's a foul magnet who was fourth at his position in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and made opponents pay by hitting 85.0 percent at the stripe -- including one streak of 46 straight. He shot 41.7 percent on 3s, which isn't what you expect from a league-leading rebounder, helping offset a disappointing season on long 2s (he made only 34.0 percent of his 2s beyond 10 feet). The one sticking point is that he's still a poor defensive player. Love's Synergy numbers were pretty solid, but you'd have a hard time explaining why. He was 62nd out of 70 power forwards in both blocks and steals per minute, while his owning the lowest foul rate at his position is more a condemnation of his effort than a positive sign. Love is slow in transition D, often doesn't rotate out on switches, and struggles to guard long post players. I would argue Love was better defensively at center; though a deficient shot-blocker, as a 5 he can use his physicality, spend more time in the paint and focus on rebounding. If the Wolves decide to end the Darko Milicic silliness and move Love to the middle it would also open another spot for all their assorted 6-9 combo forwards. DARKO MILICIC, C 預測: 13.7 pts, 8.3 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 12.41 PER ‧ 左手低位球員，喜歡用左手勾射或是在底線轉身單打 ‧ 缺乏進攻直覺，容易失誤且缺乏籃框附近得分的能力 ‧ 偉大的火鍋專家但防守注意力時好時壞，以高度來說籃板太稀少 One of the most bizarre events in the weird world of the Wolves was watching them repeatedly dump the ball in to Milicic in the post as though he were any good at offense. He's not. Milicic has poor offensive instincts, turns it over too much, and doesn't draw fouls. In spite of all that, he had a higher usage rate than Luke Ridnour. Most shots per 40 minutes from 3 to 9 feet, 2010-11 Player Team FGA/40 Darko Milicic Min 7.17 Andrew Bogut Mil 6.12 Brook Lopez NJ 6.09 Roy Hibbert Ind 5.73 Shawn Marion Dal 5.24 Source: Hoopdata.com. Min 100 FGA Milicic's most notable deficiency is that he doesn't turn his post-ups into shots at the rim -- the best-case scenario is a hook shot that he has trouble making consistently. Milicic, per minute, took more shots from 3 to 9 feet than any player in basketball, trying more than one every six minutes (see chart). Well over half his shots came in this area. And yet, he wasn't any good at them, covering just 39.1 percent. As a result of all these failed post-ups, Milicic finished 12th among centers in usage rate and 59th in TS%. It wasn't just the shooting, though -- he also kept trying line-drive, no-look passes off the dribble that nearly decapitated several baseline photographers, finishing with the sixth-worst pure point rating among centers. He's also unusually bad at tip-ins, botching several easy ones last season. While there are few rational explanations for Minnesota's offensive reliance on Milicic, he is genuinely useful at the defensive end. He was third among centers in blocks per minute and graded strongly in Synergy's stats, with his length at the rim making up for a lot of shortcomings around him. He's a disappointing rebounder and doesn't always play hard, but if the Wolves just focus on his defensive attributes and stop acting like he's Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,Darko can be a helpful player. RICKY RUBIO, PG ‧ 有速度，有流暢節奏的控球後衛, 能在推進球同時找到空檔球員 ‧ 不好的外線射手與遭糕的進攻終結者，很會罰球 ‧ 傑出的防守潛力.擁有不可忽視的抄截強勢能力 Rubio is one of the most unique players to come into the league in a long time and I'm excited to see him, but I'm not sure his rather unusual combination of pluses and minuses will add up to much of a player. There's no way to sugarcoat this: Rubio's translated European stats are just awful, and have been for the past few years. I have a system that's been pretty reliable in terms of predicting first-year NBA performance for imports from the Euroleague, and what they project for Rubio offensively is ghastly: a 27.3 percent shooting mark and a 9.93 PER. It's not just his play in that league either; Rubio's play for Spain in international competition has been similarly discouraging. Much has been made of Rubio's poor jump shot, but a far bigger problem is that he's a lousy finisher. Many point guards have survived the former, but they all were very effective in the paint; Rubio, on the other hand, routinely blows layups. Oddly, he's a good foul shooter, which may offer some hope for his eventually redeeming his field goal percentage -- especially since he turned 21 in late October. Rubio has so many fans because he has skills in other categories that few others can match. He projects to have a high assist rate and be among the best rebounding guards in basketball, and defensively he should be a plus right away with his ball-hawking talent. If I were to compare him to any recent player it might be Darrell Walker, the former Knick and Bullet (... and Piston, Bull and Nugget). Walker was a 6-4 ball hawk like Rubio, and like Rubio he couldn't shoot at all -- he finished his career with an impossibly bad mark of 6-for-102 on 3-pointers. Because of that he never achieved stardom, but he was so good in other areas he had a solid career anyway. Rubio may be on the same path. NIKOLA PEKOVIC, C 預測: 15.7 pts, 8.3 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 11.21 PER ‧ 大隻佬,因他的身材讓他變成很衰的犯規機器 ‧ 擁有在籃框周圍的攻擊力.機動性受身材限.對球的處理令人難以忍受 ‧ 貧瘠的防守籃板者，還算不錯的火鍋火鍋專家，樂意在防守上進行對抗 Pekovic fouled me while I was writing this. Twice. The burly Monteneg-goon celebrated his arrival by committing 8.16 personal fouls per 40 minutes, becoming only the 15th rookie since the NBA-ABA merger to average more than a foul every five minutes. Surprisingly, a few of them (Matt Geiger, Kevin Duckworth, Roy Hibbert, Malik Rose) turned into decent players. Most fouls per 40 minutes, 2010-11 Player Team PF/40 Nikola Pekovic Min 8.16 Johan Petro NJ 7.97 Kevin Seraphin Was 7.94 Aaron Gray NO 7.23 Solomon Jones Ind 7.12 Min. 500 minutes I'm not sure Pekovic will follow them. His translated European stats w ere really strong based on his offensive stats, but last season fell way short of that level. While Pekovic did produce some offensive positives -- he averaged 16.2 points per 40 minutes, he can finish around the basket, he draws fouls and he's a good foul shooter -- he can't just physically crush people the way he did overseas. Pekovic tends to pick up traveling violations trying to head fake around the basket, while his post-up "method" consists of swinging his arms into an opponent and backing up into him until the ref calls an offensive foul. Speaking of which, Pekovic is a horrid ball handler; the offensive fouls are only part of the problem, as he had the league's worst pure point rating in 2010-11 (see Dwight Howard comment). If he doesn't bring some refinement to his bull-in-a-china-shop approach, he'll be a career backup. MARTELL WEBSTER, SF 預測: 16.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.9 ast per 40 min; 12.51 PER ‧ 寬厚的手臂帶著長遠的投籃距離，非常滑順但但結果很普通 ‧ 處理球的能力很差，強壯但缺乏低位能力，不值得注意第靈活度 ‧ 樂意防守但只有普通的橫移能力.病房常客 Webster attacked offensively more than any time in his career, and while that led to a spike in turnovers given his dodgy handle, it also resulted in his best offensive season overall. Using his strength along with a healthy dose of shot fakes, Webster ranked 13th among small forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt -- easily a career best. He also shot 41.7 percent on 3s, an encouraging result for a player with a gorgeous stroke but a career mark of only 37.7 percent. As a result, he set career highs in TS% and points per minute. Webster isn't a great athlete but is a willing defender; in both Portland and Minnesota, this has resulted in his being used as a stopper in an act of desperation, and the results have been fairly ugly. This is particularly true at shooting guard, where Webster played often last season and was savaged for a 21.7 opponent PER. Synergy's stats also ranked him poorly, and he didn't contribute much in terms of blocks, steals or rebounds either. Obviously, that's partly due to playing the 2 so much and having to guard much quicker players. Like a lot of Wolves, Webster is forced to play suboptimal positions by the team's excess of players in the 6-7 to 6-9 range. H e's really a full-time 3 who can occasionally play as a smallball 4, but on this roster he's likely to play a lot of shooting guard once again. He's a useful player, especially if he's making over 40 percent on 3s, but he could be of greater benefit on another roster. WAYNE ELLINGTON, G 預測: 14.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 9.49 PER ‧ 非應有高度的SG，擁有長遠火力，尚可的靈活度 ‧ 從中距離開始向外的投籃都很棒，但禁區的攻擊令人乏味 ‧ 在其他方面的涉及都低於一般. 身材有限制到他的防守 Here's a stat you don't see often: Ellington shot better from outside 10 feet than inside. On jump shots, including 3-pointers, Ellington made 39.7 percent; however, he made only 39.6 percent from 9 feet and closer. And with that, you immediately understand where Ellington's career sits: He needs to rip the nets to shreds from outside, because the rest of his game just isn't good enough. While he has decent athleticism, he's undersized for a 2 and doesn't handle the ball nearly well enough to play the point. He's a lousy finisher, as evidenced above, plus he struggles on defense and can't create his own shot. So his outside shot is his meal ticket, and in his first two seasons it wasn't quite accurate enough to get the job done. That said, he may eventually hit enough shots to get some traction in his career. Ellington shot more long 2s than 3s last season, and if he switches the mix to focus on the 3-pointer his TS% should rise accordingly. And while he's below average in nearly all other respects, he's not terrible; compared with a lot of other 3-point specialists he's downright athletic. So if he racks up a TS% in the mid-to-high 50s, he'll be playable. ANTHONY TOLLIVER, PF 預測: 13.3 pts, 8.6 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 13.68 PER ‧ 聰敏,定點投籃的大個，防守上帶著攻擊性 ‧ 精壯帶著一般的靈活性. 次等的籃板手.有限的低位能力 ‧ 除非四下無人才會投籃,但他是個好的傳球者.他很少放錯. A smart, high-percentage player who doesn't force the action, hustles on defense and never makes mistakes? Wait, what's this guy doing on the Timberwolves? Tolliver has carved out a niche for himself in that role despite playing for two organizations -- Golden State and now Minnesota -- that were antithetical to intelligent basketball. Last season he averaged only 12.7 points and 8.7 boards per 40 minutes, yet was a useful player because of his high-efficiency approach. Tolliver was the rare player who both takes lots of 3s and draws lots of fouls; he was 11th among power forwards in 3-point frequency and 10th in free throw rate. He hit 40.9 percent from beyond the arc and finished fourth among power forwards in secondary percentage. As an added plus, Tolliver has become a fairly adept high-post passer. He was eighth among power forwards in assist ratio and ninth in pure point rating. Defensively, Tolliver is undersized but offsets that with his mobility as a pick-and-roll defender and his willingness to take charges. Although his direct opponent stats weren't good, the Wolves gave up 4.57 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court -- Tolliver's value isn't in one-on-one defense, in other words, but team D. Much of which is wasted with this outfit, but Minnesota's logjam at the 4 may result in his being liberated to a franchise that has more use for his crafty play. ANTHONY RANDOLPH, PF 預測: 22.5 pts, 11.4 reb, 2.4 ast per 40 min; 17.75 PER ‧ 長臂, 極端瘦長的左手長人，以他的高度來說運球還不錯 ‧ 優等的籃板手與火鍋製造者. 有時候防守的很無力 ‧ 外線遭糕而且攻守意識不是很好，很棒的得分終結者 The defining Randolph sequence came in the final game of the season against Houston. In a close game, late in the fourth quarter, the Rockets were able to get consecutive dunks because Randolph walked back on defense. Not jogged. Walked. Randolph's inconsistent effort threatens to submarine some pretty serious potential. He ranked in the top third of power forwards in blocks, steals and rebounds and offensively he averaged better than a point every two minutes. Unfortunately he's still a wildly inefficient offensive player. Although few big men dribble as well as he does in the open court, that dissipates in traffic. He doesn't have great body control on the drive and constantly loses the rock; only five power forwards had a worse turnover ratio. And he didn't compensate for those errors with a lot of assists; mostly he drove for his own shot. Randolph can get to the rim, but too often he takes the jump shots that opposing defenses happily conceded to him. He tried a shot beyond 10 feet once every five minutes last season, and converted only 33.9 percent of them, barely half his percentage at the rim. Based on all this, one good way to use him may be to take the ball (and decisions) out of his hands and have him operate as the dive man in the pick-and-roll, where he can finish strong and draw fouls. Defensively, Randolph is potentially awesome but for the moment average -- he has the length and skill of a Marcus Camby, but his moments of shot-blocking splendor are offset by an abundant lack of strength and a frequent absence of focus or effort. He's only 22 and has a world of potential, but there's a reason he's already on his third team. BRAD MILLER, C 預測: 14.3 pts, 8.5 reb, 5.3 ast per 40 min; 15.02 PER ‧ 能投射的高位中鋒,會傳球與處理球，有製造犯規的能力. ‧ 笨重緩慢. 終結能力與打開放式進攻都是問題. ‧ 堅強的肉體, 由於缺乏靈活度是個糟糕的防守者 Miller had offseason microfracture surgery and is likely to miss the entire season; it's possible he won't play again. If so, he went out with a classic Miller campaign -- he was first among centers in pure point rating and secondary percentage but second-to-last in offensive rebound rate. Amazingly, his defensive stats were decent -- likely because the Rockets were careful not to put him in situations where he could be taken advantage of. MALCOLM LEE, G ‧ 長臂, 靈活強的防守. 有潛力的防守者. ‧ 以這個身材控球非常好.攻守轉換能力很強. 遭糕的外線. ‧ 不強壯. 大學成績很糟糕. UCLA products under Ben Howland have historically outperformed their college stats; Lee better hope that trend continues, because his college production was mighty underwhelming. The bad outside shooting numbers are the first thing that jumps out, but the more troubling part for me is that a player drafted for his athleticism had such paltry output in rebounds, blocks and steals. Lee's potential also depends on his position. He handles the ball well enough to potentially play point guard, where his jumper and thin frame would be less of a liability and his length more of an asset. As a wing, however, he seems like a marginal player at best. The Minnesota Timberwolves are welcoming J.J. Barea into the fold, hoping he can bring veteran poise and leadership to one of the youngest teams in the league. 灰狼隊歡迎著J.J.的到來，希望他能以多年的經驗成穩且領導著這支年輕球隊 Just finish the practice.Happy to have a champion in our team. Welcome JJ. I can't wait to start playing some games. R.R.也很高興看到一個冠軍出現，他急著想趕快去比賽 Devean George被waive掉了 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 182.235.46.247

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