Recent NBA Draft Success

看板UTAH-JAZZ (猶他爵士)作者RonnieBrewer (Ronnie Brewer)時間19年前 (2006/09/25 11:08)推噓3(3推 0噓 5→)

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Recent NBA Draft Success By Jon Nichols NBADraft.net 9/23/06 NBA drafts can be frustrating times for many fans. Some fans look forward every year to adding a new young talent to their roster, only to see the player fizzle out and not help the team. Even though general managers have their jobs for a reason and can do their jobs better than any of us armchair quarterbacks, sometimes it seems they're clueless. I did this study to find out which teams have been the most successful in the draft and which haven't been doing their homework. The study was done based on drafts from 1990 to 2002. This time period was selected because anything pre-1990 seems outdated and because judging players who've been in the league for less than 3 years is unfair. The first statistic I used to measure success was average PER in the first round for each team. PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, was developed by ESPN's John Hollinger. According to Hollinger, "Player Efficiency Rating is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity." The league average is set at 15. More information can be found here:http://www.alleyoop.com/prates.shtm. The second statistic used was standard deviation of PER in the first round. This is used to determine how unpredictable each team's picks were. Teams with higher standard deviations had more unpredictable picks and vice versa. The third statistic used was one I developed. I determine if each player selected was a success based not only on performance but also on draft position. For a #1 pick to be a success, he has to have a career PER of at least 16.8. For a #2 pick, 16.6. I subtracted .2 from each subsequent required PER, all the way down to pick #30 which needs a PER of 11 to be a success. As you may have noticed, up to this point I have only focused on the first round. But there are two rounds in the draft, and certainly both can produce great players. However, I felt it was unfair to use any of the first three statistics on the 2nd round. Because it is most common for a 2nd rounder to be nothing special, one great player can dramatically affect the overall rating of a team in one of the three categories. Thus, I took a look at each player drafted in the 2nd round to see if he played in at least 100 games in his career. For each team, I calculated the percentage of players that met this criterion. Where does your team rank? Draft Success 1990-2002 Rank Team Avg. Std. 1st Round 2nd Round PER Dev. Success 100+ 1 Suns 16.1 3.93 80% 38.89% 2 76ers 15.07 3.53 63.64% 35.29% 3 Pacers 13.83 1.19 63.64% 36.36% 4 Cavaliers 14.57 3.31 61.54% 40% 5 Pistons 13.48 4.08 61.54% 44.44% 6 Grizzlies 16.59 2.79 60% 30% 7 Jazz 13.03 4.13 58.33% 45.45% 8 Raptors 14.96 5.26 55.56% 0% 9 SuperSonics 14.53 2.67 54.55% 47.37% 10 Hornets 15.51 4.26 50% 71.43% 11 Timberwolves 15 4.57 50% 35.71% 12 Warriors 14.77 2.96 50% 16.67% 13 Bucks 14.29 4.2 50% 62.50% 14 Spurs 13.99 5.69 50% 41.67% 15 Wizards 13.84 2.66 44.44% 53.33% 16 Celtics 13.13 4.33 42.86% 12.50% 17 Lakers 13.03 3.17 40% 27.27% 18 Nuggets 13.63 3.09 37.50% 35.71% 19 Magic 13.41 5.05 36.84% 57.14% 20 Kings 13.55 2.5 33.33% 44.44% 21 Clippers 13.29 2.4 31.58% 25% 22 Hawks 12.23 2.35 31.25% 25% 23 Trail Blazers 13.12 3.65 30% 20% 24 Mavericks 13.53 2.65 27.27% 57.89% 25 Rockets 12.48 5.15 26.67% 35.29% 26 Nets 13.23 3.45 25% 37.50% 27 Knicks 11.88 1.95 25% 12.50% 28 Bulls 12.6 3.83 20% 36.84% 29 Heat 13.45 1.6 11.11% 35.71% (Leaders are highlighted in green, last-place finishers in red) http://nbadraft.net/nichols006.asp -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.41.173.165 ※ 編輯: RonnieBrewer 來自: 59.41.173.165 (09/25 11:27)