[討論] What Cost A-Rod?

看板A-Rod作者niceta時間18年前 (2007/10/11 01:29)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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這是以數據觀點來討論有關A-Rod合約的文章，大家可以看一下 http://tinyurl.com/2nckau Wednesday, October 10, 2007 What Cost A-Rod? For the next few weeks, the big story in Yankee-land is going to be the Yankee free agents and who they should keep and let go. I'll probably do an entry about each of the key free agents. The big story is the Alex Rodriguez contract saga. Losing Rodriguez clearly makes the Yankees worse, but with some of the rumors being thrown around about the potential price tag for Rodriguez, should the Yankees really just pay him whatever he wants? We can't assume that Rodriguez will produce like he did in 2007 going forward. So let's try to project what Rodriguez will be worth over the remainder of his career, as he will likely be looking for a long-term contract. I've been playing around with my own projection system which I really want to name CAIRO, but I can't find an acronym that fits so if anyone has any suggestions please let me know. It's nothing fancy, but it should give us a reasonable approximation of what we can expect from Rodriguez going forward. Here's what CAIRO says Rodriguez would do if he follows normal aging patterns through age 40. YR AGE G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG pBRAA DRAA TRAA TRAR 08 32 158 588 176 29 1 40 127 93 131 20 4 .299 .406 .558 38 -2 36 56 09 33 156 581 172 28 1 40 126 94 132 19 4 .296 .405 .552 37 -3 34 54 10 34 154 574 169 28 1 40 125 92 132 17 4 .294 .403 .557 37 -4 33 53 11 35 153 568 163 28 1 39 122 90 133 16 3 .287 .396 .544 34 -5 29 49 12 36 151 563 163 28 1 38 122 91 129 17 3 .290 .401 .548 36 -6 30 50 13 37 150 557 160 27 1 34 118 92 127 14 3 .288 .402 .525 31 -7 24 44 14 38 148 551 155 26 1 32 110 83 130 16 3 .282 .385 .507 24 -8 16 36 15 39 146 545 154 24 1 28 107 83 137 13 3 .283 .386 .487 21 -9 12 32 16 40 145 539 151 23 1 26 103 81 140 12 3 .281 .383 .473 17 -10 7 27 pBRAA: position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights DRAA: defensive runs saved above average using zone rating TRAA: total runs above average (pBRAA + TRAA) TRAR: total runs above replacement Now, this assumes good health for Rodriguez going forward, which we can't know for certain. Also, as someone who appears to be a Hall of Fame-caliber talent, it's my opinion that Rodriguez is more likely to exceed his projections than a different player would be. But reasonably, we'd expect Rodriguez to be worth somewhere between 5-6 wins above replacement level for the next 5 years. For the Yankees, that may very well be worth somewhere in the area of $30 million a year. The problem comes after that. Depending on the length of the contract, the Yankees could be paying $30 million at age 38-40 for a player who's just a win to a win and a half above average. However, If Rodriguez does what is projected above, at age 40 he'd have 3713 hits and 837 career HRs. Whether that helps make a business case for overpaying for Rodriguez, I have no idea.　(很好，健健康康打十年，生涯全壘打數會超過逼逼爺) The Yankees have been adament that they will not pursue Rodriguez if he opts out of his current contract as they would lose their subsidy from Texas. Assuming that is non-negotiable (and I really think it should be), let's look at a reasonable extension from his current contract which expires after 2010. If the Yankees offer Rodriguez a four year extension from 2011-2014, they'd have him through age 38 and should reasonably expect something on the order of 4.5 wins above replacement per season. We can consider those marginal wins (http://tinyurl.com/253zzj), from the late Doug Pappas's great research on payrolls and salaries for MLB. A marginal win has a different value for every team, and they also have different values depending on how close a team is to making the playoffs which increases exposure and revenue. And that's the question the Yankees have to answer, and one we can't answer. How much is a marginal win worth to the Yankees?. If it's $2 million, they shouldn't pay Rodriguez more than $9 million a year for ages 35-38. If it's $5 million, they can afford to pay him $25 million a year, etc., Once they know that, then they have the amount they should pay Alex Rodriguez. If he wants more than he is worth, then it doesn't make good business sense to sign him. They should also look at the opportunity cost of signing Rodriguez and if it hampers the ability of the team to sign other players. My hope is the Yankees are smarter about locking up their young talent long-term going forward, so that people like Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang are signed before they get too expensive and through most of their expected peak. But there will be attractive free agents around in some seasons as well, so that should be a consideration. My hope is that Rodriguez remains a Yankee, because he's a great player who should continue to be good-great for the forseeable future. But he's worth a certain amount and not more than that to the Yankees, and I don't want to see them overpay for him. You can make your opinion felt by voting in the poll in the link below. http://rlyw.freepolls.com/cgi-bin/polls/009/poll_center.htm -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.230.86.113