Re: [討論] What Cost A-Rod?

看板A-Rod作者retry (永恆)時間18年前 (2007/10/11 10:36)推噓3(3推 0噓 1→)

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※ 引述《niceta ()》之銘言： : 這是以數據觀點來討論有關A-Rod合約的文章，大家可以看一下 : http://tinyurl.com/2nckau : Wednesday, October 10, 2007 : What Cost A-Rod? : For the next few weeks, the big story in Yankee-land is going to be : the Yankee free agents and who they should keep and let go. I'll probably : do an entry about each of the key free agents. The big story is the : Alex Rodriguez contract saga. Losing Rodriguez clearly makes the Yankees : worse, but with some of the rumors being thrown around about the potential : price tag for Rodriguez, should the Yankees really just pay him whatever : he wants? 大概翻一下,賺p幣,有錯請指正,謝謝 A-Rod值多少? 接下來幾個禮拜,對洋基最重要的事是要如何處理隊上的FA球員誰要留?誰要走? 失去阿肉會使得洋基的狀況更糟有關阿肉的身價的討論滿天飛,洋基真的要付給阿肉任何他要的東西嗎? : We can't assume that Rodriguez will produce like he did in 2007 going : forward. So let's try to project what Rodriguez will be worth over : the remainder of his career, as he will likely be looking for a long-term : contract. 我們當然無法假設阿肉是否每年都能打出像07年的成績所以當阿肉在尋求一張長期合約時, 讓我們來預估阿肉在以後的成績會長什麼樣子? : I've been playing around with my own projection system which I really want : to name CAIRO, but I can't find an acronym that fits so if anyone has any : suggestions please let me know. It's nothing fancy, but it should give us : a reasonable approximation of what we can expect from Rodriguez going forward. : Here's what CAIRO says Rodriguez would do if he follows normal aging patterns : through age 40. 作者用他自己的預測系統,叫做CAIRO,來預測阿肉現在到40歲的成績 : YR AGE G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG pBRAA DRAA TRAA TRAR : 08 32 158 588 176 29 1 40 127 93 131 20 4 .299 .406 .558 38 -2 36 56 : 09 33 156 581 172 28 1 40 126 94 132 19 4 .296 .405 .552 37 -3 34 54 : 10 34 154 574 169 28 1 40 125 92 132 17 4 .294 .403 .557 37 -4 33 53 : 11 35 153 568 163 28 1 39 122 90 133 16 3 .287 .396 .544 34 -5 29 49 : 12 36 151 563 163 28 1 38 122 91 129 17 3 .290 .401 .548 36 -6 30 50 : 13 37 150 557 160 27 1 34 118 92 127 14 3 .288 .402 .525 31 -7 24 44 : 14 38 148 551 155 26 1 32 110 83 130 16 3 .282 .385 .507 24 -8 16 36 : 15 39 146 545 154 24 1 28 107 83 137 13 3 .283 .386 .487 21 -9 12 32 : 16 40 145 539 151 23 1 26 103 81 140 12 3 .281 .383 .473 17 -10 7 27 : pBRAA: position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights : DRAA: defensive runs saved above average using zone rating : TRAA: total runs above average (pBRAA + TRAA) : TRAR: total runs above replacement 阿肉現在到四十歲的成績大概是長這個樣子 (譯者:好威的成績...) : Now, this assumes good health for Rodriguez going forward, which we can't : know for certain. Also, as someone who appears to be a Hall of Fame-caliber : talent, it's my opinion that Rodriguez is more likely to exceed his : projections than a different player would be. But reasonably, we'd expect : Rodriguez to be worth somewhere between 5-6 wins above replacement level : for the next 5 years. For the Yankees, that may very well be worth somewhere : in the area of $30 million a year. 當然上述的預測是假設阿肉每年都很健康,這是作者無法預測的對作者而言,阿肉是有HOF水準的打者,阿肉是有可能超越預測的水準所以接下來5-6年,阿肉相較於replacement level的球員可以每年多拿5-6勝所以對nyy而言,阿肉有可能值30M per year : The problem comes after that. Depending on the length of the contract, the : Yankees could be paying $30 million at age 38-40 for a player who's just : a win to a win and a half above average. However, If Rodriguez does what : is projected above, at age 40 he'd have 3713 hits and 837 career HRs. : Whether that helps make a business case for overpaying for Rodriguez, : I have no idea.　(很好，健健康康打十年，生涯全壘打數會超過逼逼爺) 問題在於合約後半段,當阿肉38-40歲, 洋基還是要每年付他30M,但是每年相較replacement level只能多拿1-1.5勝如果按照預測的,阿肉打到40歲時,累積成績會是3719安 837轟這樣的成績是否能讓阿肉在生涯末期洋基願意overpay,作者have no idea. : The Yankees have been adament that they will not pursue Rodriguez if he : opts out of his current contract as they would lose their subsidy from : Texas. Assuming that is non-negotiable (and I really think it should be), : let's look at a reasonable extension from his current contract which : expires after 2010. 洋基堅持,如果阿肉opts out,使得他們失去條子的贊助他們將不會加入阿肉競價大戰. 現在的合約是到2010年,假設洋基將合約合理的延長 : If the Yankees offer Rodriguez a four year extension from 2011-2014, : they'd have him through age 38 and should reasonably expect something : on the order of 4.5 wins above replacement per season. We can consider : those marginal wins (http://tinyurl.com/253zzj), from the late Doug Pappas's : great research on payrolls and salaries for MLB. A marginal win has : a different value for every team, and they also have different values : depending on how close a team is to making the playoffs which increases : exposure and revenue. 假設洋基延長和阿肉的合約至2014,就是到阿肉38歲洋基就會擁有一個比replacemetn level多超過4.5勝的球員要算一勝價值多少錢,可以參考marginal win http://tinyurl.com/253zzj : And that's the question the Yankees have to answer, and one we can't answer. : How much is a marginal win worth to the Yankees?. If it's $2 million, they : shouldn't pay Rodriguez more than $9 million a year for ages 35-38. If it's : $5 million, they can afford to pay him $25 million a year, etc., Once they : know that, then they have the amount they should pay Alex Rodriguez. If he : wants more than he is worth, then it doesn't make good business sense to : sign him. 只有洋基才知道問題的答案,而我們是無法解答的只有洋基自己才知道,對洋基而言,多一勝的價錢如果每多一勝是2M的價錢,他們就不會付給阿肉超過9M a year 如果每多一勝是值5M,他們會願意付給阿肉25M a year 洋基算出自己心中多一勝的價值後,所以洋基就會有自己願意付的價碼如果阿肉要的超過,他們就不願意付 : They should also look at the opportunity cost of signing Rodriguez and if : it hampers the ability of the team to sign other players. My hope is the : Yankees are smarter about locking up their young talent long-term going : forward, so that people like Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang are signed : before they get too expensive and through most of their expected peak. : But there will be attractive free agents around in some seasons as well, : so that should be a consideration. 當然洋基也要考慮他們簽了阿肉,可能造成他們無法簽其他選手作者希望洋基也要考量他們陣中的年輕好手,如Cano and Wang 能在他們變得太貴前,簽下他們而且能擁有他們的生涯高峰當然如果有其他吸引人的FA,也是可以考慮的 : My hope is that Rodriguez remains a Yankee, because he's a great player : who should continue to be good-great for the forseeable future. But he's : worth a certain amount and not more than that to the Yankees, and I don't : want to see them overpay for him. : You can make your opinion felt by voting in the poll in the link below. : http://rlyw.freepolls.com/cgi-bin/polls/009/poll_center.htm 作者希望A-Rod能繼續待在Yankee中,因為他是一位很棒的打者在可預見的未來的中,阿肉應該可以打出相當好的成績阿肉是值一個相當好的價錢,但是作者也不希望洋基overpay 作者給一個網址,大家可以投票http://0rz.tw/8e3dr -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.112.5.225