2009 ZiPS Projections - Oakland Athletics

看板Athletics作者abc12812 (Sudba tseloveka)時間17年前 (2008/10/09 20:36)推噓3(3推 0噓 0→)

留言3則, 3人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/4jrvxk Make no mistake about it, the A's aren't doing a quick rebuild. There's little chance of competing with the Angels in 2009 unless the team's fortunate in some of the young hitters really stepping up, like Carlos Gonzalez. Daric Barton probably needs to spend some time in the minors as there's a difference between being disciplined and simply being too passive. Cust can get away with it since he has a lot more power, but Barton has to be more like Mark Grace. If enough breaks right for the team, they could win 80 games, but a number in the 70s is more likely depending on what Beane does in the offseason. Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K Jack Cust* dh 30 .246 .387 .471 136 435 66 107 20 0 26 78 100 160 Frank Thomas dh 41 .260 .362 .402 86 296 31 77 12 0 10 41 44 50 AVERAGE 1B/DH ----------------------------------------------------------------- AVERAGE LF -------------------------------------------------------------------- AVERAGE RF -------------------------------------------------------------------- Travis Buck* rf 24 .252 .335 .403 85 318 40 80 18 3 8 39 36 71 AVERAGE 3B -------------------------------------------------------------------- Eric Chavez* 3b 31 .246 .328 .411 87 321 43 79 18 1 11 44 40 66 Ryan Sweeney* rf 24 .272 .340 .384 128 456 55 124 20 2 9 52 47 72 Chris Denorfia cf 28 .284 .337 .377 104 334 44 95 16 0 5 36 26 55 Jack Hannahan* 3b 29 .247 .340 .373 123 405 47 100 24 0 9 47 56 110 AVERAGE CF -------------------------------------------------------------------- Mark Ellis 2b 32 .253 .328 .387 118 442 59 112 22 2 11 54 43 71 Daric Barton* 1b 23 .244 .332 .378 151 532 72 130 27 4 12 63 68 88 AVERAGE 2B -------------------------------------------------------------------- Kurt Suzuki c 25 .248 .325 .369 117 404 50 100 22 0 9 55 42 67 AVERAGE SS -------------------------------------------------------------------- Matt Murton lf 27 .253 .320 .367 114 368 43 93 17 2 7 41 34 48 Aaron Cunningham cf 23 .248 .307 .404 132 532 72 132 26 3 17 69 42 110 Emil Brown rf 34 .250 .310 .376 106 364 43 91 17 1 9 44 29 85 AVERAGE C --------------------------------------------------------------------- Casey Rogowski* 1b 28 .237 .308 .361 123 435 49 103 22 1 10 49 42 91 Landon Powell# c 27 .227 .291 .383 90 326 31 74 10 1 13 46 29 83 Chris Carter 1b 22 .219 .284 .403 132 521 57 114 22 1 24 76 45 116 Danny Putnam* lf 26 .231 .303 .359 92 329 36 76 16 1 8 38 30 70 Jeff Baisley 3b 26 .239 .296 .362 105 389 41 93 21 0 9 44 28 66 Corey Brown* cf 23 .216 .275 .388 103 402 36 87 18 0 17 55 31 103 Bobby Crosby ss 29 .234 .296 .344 110 418 50 98 23 1 7 43 36 76 Gregorio Petit ss 24 .260 .305 .336 110 411 40 107 17 1 4 37 25 70 Eric Patterson* 2b 26 .235 .288 .352 122 455 54 107 20 3 9 48 33 85 Rajai Davis# cf 28 .245 .301 .335 113 310 41 76 13 3 3 29 22 49 Sean Doolittle* 1b 22 .227 .281 .360 108 431 43 98 22 1 11 49 32 92 Carlos Gonzalez* cf 23 .233 .276 .365 130 468 50 109 30 1 10 52 25 119 Rob Bowen# c 28 .215 .304 .323 65 130 17 28 8 0 2 13 16 43 Cliff Pennington# ss 25 .227 .309 .293 141 556 73 126 21 2 4 46 65 82 Brooks Conrad# 2b 29 .205 .269 .371 124 483 62 99 26 3 16 61 40 112 Richie Robnett* rf 25 .222 .277 .345 102 400 45 89 22 0 9 43 29 97 Javier Herrera cf 24 .218 .265 .360 81 339 42 74 16 1 10 40 19 77 Joshua Horton* ss 23 .243 .297 .285 99 400 38 97 12 1 1 30 29 61 Justin Knoedler c 28 .203 .256 .332 82 271 30 55 15 1 6 28 18 65 Raul Padron* c 24 .212 .252 .332 80 292 25 62 14 0 7 31 15 63 * - Bats Left # = Switch-Hitter Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Cust* Pr Pr Thomas Buck* Av Av Chavez* Av Sweeney* Vg Vg Vg Denorfia Av Fr Av Hannahan* Av Av Av Ellis Ex Barton* Vg Suzuki Av Murton Av Fr Fr Cunningham Vg Av Vg Brown Fr Av Rogowski* Av Fr Fr Powell# Vg Carter Fr Putnam* Fr Fr Fr Baisley Av Brown* Av Pr Av Crosby Av Petit Av Av Av Patterson* Fr Av Av Av Davis# Vg Vg Vg Doolittle* Vg Gonzalez* Av Fr Av Bowen# Fr Pennington# Av Av Av Conrad# Av Av Robnett* Av Fr Av Herrera Vg Av Vg Horton* Av Av Fr Knoedler Av Padron* Fr Av Player Spotlight - Jack Cust Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .272 .423 .538 153 489 87 133 25 0 35 100 128 167 158 Mean .246 .387 .471 136 435 66 107 20 0 26 78 100 160 131 Pessimistic (15%) .206 .346 .387 114 364 40 75 15 0 17 53 77 154 98 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jason Thompson, Jim Gentile Player Spotlight - Travis Buck Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .281 .374 .475 117 438 66 123 30 5 15 67 60 85 128 Mean .252 .335 .403 85 318 40 80 18 3 8 39 36 71 99 Pessimistic (15%) .227 .292 .327 68 251 21 57 11 1 4 24 22 60 69 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Norm Miller, Dwight Evans Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Brad Ziegler 29 2.89 7 3 61 0 81.0 77 26 3 25 42 Huston Street 25 3.22 7 3 63 0 67.0 57 24 6 19 71 Joey Devine 25 3.24 6 3 48 1 50.0 44 18 3 23 47 Justin Duchscherer 31 3.30 9 5 18 18 101.0 96 37 9 21 70 Santiago Casilla 29 3.90 2 2 54 1 60.0 57 26 5 26 53 AVERAGE RELIEVER -------------------------------------------------------------- Jerry Blevins* 25 4.10 4 4 57 0 68.0 72 31 6 19 47 Alan Embree* 39 4.11 3 2 64 0 57.0 57 26 6 19 50 Sean Gallagher 23 4.23 8 7 28 23 134.0 135 63 11 65 92 Dana Eveland* 25 4.36 7 7 25 23 132.0 139 64 9 57 91 AVERAGE STARTER --------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Brown 28 4.43 3 3 51 0 61.0 59 30 5 35 46 Greg Smith* 25 4.50 8 9 25 25 144.0 151 72 17 51 79 Trevor Cahill 21 4.54 8 9 22 20 111.0 112 56 10 60 60 Vince Mazzaro 22 4.80 9 13 29 28 167.0 185 89 17 66 73 Brett Anderson* 21 4.90 7 10 22 21 112.0 127 61 14 33 59 Chris Gissell 31 4.94 5 6 22 15 93.0 105 51 14 24 57 Joshua Outman* 24 4.99 6 10 41 20 137.0 151 76 14 69 68 Jay Marshall* 26 5.02 3 4 58 0 61.0 71 34 6 23 24 Brad Kilby* 26 5.03 3 5 54 0 68.0 72 38 10 31 43 Dallas Braden* 25 5.06 3 5 18 13 80.0 92 45 13 24 48 Jared Lansford 22 5.09 3 5 29 2 53.0 59 30 6 24 28 Ryan Wing* 27 5.26 3 4 44 7 77.0 84 45 11 39 39 Jeff Gray 27 5.32 3 6 57 0 71.0 84 42 9 26 35 Keith Foulke 36 5.36 2 3 42 0 47.0 53 28 10 15 33 Henry Rodriguez 24 5.37 5 10 30 22 109.0 116 65 9 83 61 Kirk Saarloos 30 5.42 3 6 24 14 103.0 125 62 14 32 40 James Simmons 22 5.44 6 10 26 26 139.0 166 84 21 44 70 Shane Komine 28 5.60 3 7 16 13 82.0 95 51 13 30 42 Brad Knox 27 5.60 5 9 26 22 143.0 173 89 19 56 55 Gio Gonzalez* 23 5.66 6 13 31 29 151.0 161 95 26 84 109 Andrew Bailey 25 5.82 4 9 28 17 102.0 112 66 17 53 60 Dan Meyer* 27 5.97 3 8 21 18 101.0 119 67 17 45 56 Bret Prinz 32 6.21 1 2 29 0 29.0 33 20 5 17 19 Lenny Dinardo* 29 6.39 2 7 19 11 69.0 92 49 11 25 29 Justin Dowdy* 25 6.45 1 4 45 3 74.0 89 53 14 43 42 David Shafer 27 6.45 1 2 44 1 53.0 61 38 10 36 30 Jose Garcia 24 7.44 1 5 31 1 52.0 66 43 13 31 20 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Greg Smith ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.68 11 8 28 28 164 156 67 17 49 102 115 Mean 4.50 8 9 25 25 144 151 72 17 51 79 94 Pessimistic (15%) 5.09 6 8 20 20 115 129 65 15 46 56 83 Top Near-Age Comps: John Koronka, Bill Travers Player Spotlight - Dana Eveland ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.43 9 6 28 26 152 144 58 8 53 112 123 Mean 4.36 7 7 25 23 132 139 64 9 57 91 97 Pessimistic (15%) 5.28 4 7 21 19 104 122 61 9 50 67 80 Top Near-Age Comps: Danny Jackson, Jerry Reuss Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3