Re: [農場] BP Top 10 Prospects

看板Athletics作者Zamned (QQ)時間7年前 (2017/12/03 19:16)推噓2(2推 0噓 2→)

留言4則, 2人參與討論串6/8 (看更多)

1. A.J. Puk, LHP The Good: An at-bat against Puk looks like a genuinely terrifying event for a hitter, regardless of handedness. His fastball is a legitimate plus-plus weapon in the making, a slice of mid-90s cheddar that can climb as high as 99 with explosive finishing action through the zone. The slider isn’t far behind, either. He generates enormous extension with a slingshot arm action, hiding the ball well behind his massive frame as he comes to slot. The combination makes his ball look like it’s coming out about 45 feet from home. Even if he never gains an ounce of additional consistency with his mechanics he has the raw stuff to dominate in high-leverage situations in a big-league bullpen on the sooner side of later. The Bad: Projecting any semblance of command consistency is best left to the shruggy emoticon guy. Puk is a long dude, and he’s not the most fluid or athletic of hurlers, despite some elasticity in his movement. He struggles, mightily at times, to streamline his delivery and control the baseball. His timing to slot varies wildly from pitch to pitch, and that’s just always going to be a limiting factor for him. There’s a Randy Johnson-style “maybe it’ll all just eventually work out” vibe to him. The change will flash utility as a third pitch, but it’s a ways off from getting there on the regular, though it’s unclear it’ll ever really have to. The Role: OFP 70—No. 2 Starter or Elite Closer Likely 60—Maddening No. 3 Starter or late-inning reliever with flashes of brilliance but loads of walks The Risks: There’s more volatility here than your standard sixth overall pick who’s already demonstrated the ability to blow away hitters at Double-A, as we’re just going to have to wait and see if the raw stuff is enough to overcome what are likely to be ever-persistent command issues. It’ s entirely possible it will be, in which case you’ll be able to build a rotation around him. —Wilson Karaman 3. Jorge Mateo, SS The Good: Well, he finally made it out of A-ball, and he even hit a little! After a stagnant performance in 2016, 2017 finally gave way to a midseason promotion. The hottest month of Mateo’s life led to him being the top chip the Yankees flipped in the Sonny Gray deal. The raw power, which was always existent but limited to 5 PM, even showed up for the last two months of the season. Oh yeah, and he’s still one of the fastest players in organized baseball, and isn’t a disaster at short, second, or center. The Bad: You still can’t steal first, and Mateo’s on-base skills are constantly coming into question. His Double-A line, while still a vast improvement on prior years, got a lot more Mateo-like after the trade, with the on-base percentage taking a relative nose dive and the power being more triples-driven than before. In short, he’s probably still Jorge Mateo, questions about the stick and all. He’s going to hit a lot of triples in the majors as a gap-power player with high-end 80-grade speed, but seven per month isn’t going to be repeatable. If he can’t continue to hit for a premium average, his value at the plate drops precipitously because his approach won’t allow him to get on-base and use his legs otherwise. His speed projects him out to be a good fielder eventually, but we can’t quite guarantee where yet; my best guess would be in center, which the Yankees started exposing him to last spring. He’s probably older than you think— 2017 was his age-22 season—because he percolated in A-ball for so long. Reports of bad makeup, off-the-field issues, and lackadaisical play on the field have followed him for years now, and were at least partially confirmed by a 2016 suspension and various Yankees personnel that were unusually frank on the record about such things. The Role: OFP 60—First-division regular somewhere on the dirt or in the middle of the grass Likely 50—Regular center fielder The Risks: Outside of a major injury or off-field problem, there’s actually way lower risk than you’d think for a dude who might get the bat blown out of his hands against high-level pitching. At worst, his speed and multipositional ability should make him an incredibly useful bench player/fill-in regular, Alexi Amarista with more speed and pop. And that’s an unusually high reasonable floor. —Jarrett Seidler 5. Dustin Fowler, OF The Good: One of the few prospects in baseball who is truly average-or-better at everything we measure. His realistic projection isn’t nearly as good as that sounds, because most of it is just average, but you can make a lot of money playing baseball with a bunch of 5s, 55s, and 6s on your scouting report. He hits for average! He hits for surprisingly virile pop! He runs well down the line and translates it well to the bases! He fields all three outfield positions well! He even throws! There isn’t much to complain about here except that he’s not great at any one thing, which limits the upside some. He got constant Brett Gardner comps in the Yankees system due to organization and look, but it’s one of the rare comps of that type that accurately reflects the sort of player Fowler might become. The Bad: Fowler likely wouldn’t be prospect-eligible or a member of this system but for a catastrophic knee injury suffered in his MLB debut in June 2017. In an instant, he went from the front of the line of the bumper crop of hitting prospects, getting the first shot to establish himself in the majors, to the back of the line behind a better prospect like Clint Frazier. Prior to the injury, there were still lingering concerns that he’d get tweenered as a player just slightly short of bat to be a corner regular and just slightly short of glove to be a regular in center, and the injury could amplify that possibility. He’s also never walked quite as much as you’d hope given the rest of the profile. The Role: OFP 60—Versatile starting outfielder Likely 45—A nifty fourth outfielder who can be the long side of a platoon The Risks: While Fowler’s open patella tendon rupture was as brutal looking an injury as you’ll see and there was initial concern it might seriously impact his career trajectory, as of last reports the A’s expect him to be ready to compete for a starting outfield spot in spring training. Permanent loss of a tick or two on the stopwatch would be a substantial hit to the offensive and defensive profiles as they’ve shown up to here, although he has the raw talent to make a profile adjustment into more of a corner power player. 6. Austin Beck, OF The Good: Beck has tools to spare. There’s easy plus-plus raw here at present and possibly more to come as his upper body fills out. The ball absolutely jumps off his bat. It makes the sound. It’s a great baseball body. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm. There is star upside if the whole package comes together. The Bad: Beck is so raw he is featured in Sushi Jiro Gastronomy. He may not hit enough to get the prodigious raw pop into play. He may not hit at all. He ’s got the physical tools for center field for now but will likely slide to a corner as he ages. The Role: OFP 60—First division right fielder Likely 45—Fringy corner masher The Risks: Very high. The tools are loud, but Beck is very raw as a baseball player and a lot can go wrong in the four years or so it will take him to get to the majors. -- やっ..........！！！！！！止めろペイモンこの野郎～～～～～～っ地獄でいきなり聖書なんえ読み上げやがってえ~~~~~~~~~っ！！殺すえおっ！！ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.224.200.234 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Athletics/M.1512299779.A.42C.html