[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Brewers Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Milwaukee Brewers Preview
To this point, the Brewers have faithfully followed the trajectory of the
ages-old tale of the up-and-coming team: They finished above .500 and got close
to the playoffs in 2007, then experienced a “just happy to be here”
postseason in 2008. Now, the script says, the Brewers should be poised to
contend for a deeper run in the playoffs. Uh-oh. This is where the plot gets a
tad unrealistic. How can this team do better than last year’s, what with a new
manager, the same shoddy defense, the same undisciplined offense, and a cast of
B-level pitchers attempting to make up for the loss of the leading man of all
leading men? Grab a brewskie and wait and see; will Miller Park be the set of
an inspirational story with an unexpected twist, or the sad tale of a once
promising band of brothers who faded into mediocrity?
Rotation
To put as positive a spin on this as possible, the Brewers were a contender
even without C.C. Sabathia and never had a realistic shot to re-sign him. So,
no sense crying over a $160 million glass of spilled milk, cheeseheads. And Ben
Sheets never won more than 13 games and has a career record only three games
over .500, so he is replaceable. But with the aces gone, just what is the
Brewer rotation of the future? At least in the short-term, a group of familiar
faces: Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and most likely
either Seth McClung, Carlos Villanueva, or Chris Capuano. Expectations are
highest for Gallardo, a righty with equal parts stuff and smarts who missed
almost the entire ’08 season with a torn ACL. After an early season demotion
to Triple-A, Bush emerged as one of the steadier starters down the stretch,
going 4–0 with a 2.12 ERA in August. The aging Suppan has a lot to prove after
faltering in precisely the situation the Brewers got him for — he was battered
around in September and in the postseason. Parra could benefit from a second
wind — both within games and over the course of the season; he tends to start
strong and then lose steam. Capuano, who missed all of the ’08 season after
undergoing a second Tommy John surgery, was signed to a minor league contract
and hopes to return to the form he showed en route to winning 18 games in 2005.
Bullpen
The signing of all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman lends some credibility to a
largely unproven stable of relievers. Whether Hoffman, at age 41, can continue
to put games away as consistently as he has over his 16 years in San Diego is
the big question. Given the meltdowns the Brewers have witnessed by Eric Gagne
and Derrick Turnbow the last couple of years, taking a chance on Hoffman is
well worth any risk. Hoffman’s arrival takes some pressure off Villanueva, who
is a good bet to become Macha’s main setup man. After failing as a starter a
year ago (2–5, 6.43 ERA), he found his rhythm in the bullpen, compiling a 2.12
ERA in 38 appearances. The Brewers made a few offseason pickups in the pen,
including journeyman Jorge Julio (a former Oriole closer), lefty R.J. Swindle
from the Phillies, and Rule 5 pickup Eduardo Morlan.
Corners
Cue Michael Buffer: In one corner, wearing the baggy pants, a 270-pound
southpaw, Prince Fielder! And in the other corner, a free swinger from
shortstop by way of center field, Bill Hall! In Fielder, the Brewers have one
of the game’s true boppers; he ranked eighth in the NL with 34 homers, and his
84 bombs rank third in the majors over the last two seasons. His defense
remains a liability, as his 17 errors ranked second among NL first basemen.
Speaking of miscues, Hall committed 17 errors in part-time duty at third base.
His third position change in as many years surely did Hall no favors at the
plate — the big numbers he put up in 2006 are a distant memory.
Middle infield
In a league loaded with talented shortstops, J.J. Hardy may be the most
underrated. The only Brewer infielder with any defensive skills to speak of,
Hardy possesses one of the most potent bats of any shortstop in the game: He’s
hit 20-plus homers each of the last two years and last year ranked second among
MLB shortstops in homers (24) and third in RBIs (74). If Rickie Weeks is ever
to become the catalyst the Brewers thought he would be when then drafted him in
the first round in 2003, this is the year he has to bust loose. A subpar
defender (15 errors), Weeks has yet to compensate at the plate. Still, his
power, speed and quick bat are tantalizing. If he doesn’t put it all together
this year, a change of scenery may be his only salvation.
Outfield
It appears that Ryan Braun will be the face of the franchise through 2015.
Braun is one of only two players in big league history to hit 30 home runs in
his first two seasons, and last year he ranked among NL leaders in extra-base
hits (first), total bases (second), home runs (tied for fourth), slugging
percentage (fifth), triples (tied for sixth) and RBIs (tied for ninth). Right
fielder Corey Hart joined Braun at last year’s All Star Game and brings his
own brand of production to the lineup. Though he looked clueless at the plate
in September (.173, 0 homers, 10 RBIs) and in the playoffs, Hart still combined
enough speed (23 steals) and power (20 homers) to notch his second career 20/20
season, the first Brewer ever with two such seasons. If he weren’t such a good
defensive player, center fielder Mike Cameron would represent the prototypical
Brewer. He’s got some speed (17 steals) and some power (25 homers), but he
strikes out a ton (team-high 142 whiffs) and doesn’t get on base enough (.331
on base percentage).
Catching
The Brewers got everything they hoped for from Jason Kendall in 2008. The only
question is whether the 34-year old workhorse can continue to produce at such a
high level. While Kendall was nothing special at the plate (.246, two homers)
he earned raves from Brewer pitchers for the way he manages a game, and he
dramatically improved his numbers throwing out would-be base stealers (42.7
percent, up from 18.0 percent in ’07).
Bench
The Brewer bench was among the least productive in all of baseball last season,
and not much has changed. Mike Rivera is back to offer the occasional start at
catcher, while Tony Gwynn Jr. and Trot Nixon figure to give Ken Macha a
left-handed bat off the bench or spot start in the outfield. The most
intriguing benchwarmers come in the infield, where Mike Lamb and Mat Gamel
could see significant time at third base, and Alcides Escobar could wreak havoc
with the incumbent infield starters in any number of ways. Craig Counsell
provides a veteran presence, pesky bat and solid infield glove.
Management
Brewer fans were thrilled when Melvin went for broke, trading for Sabathia and
firing manager Ned Yost when a September swoon threatened to knock the Crew out
of contention. He earned more brownie points when he made a serious run at
Sabathia in the offseason. Still, with the roster seemingly far less talented
heading into the ’09 season than it was at season’s end, Melvin faces an
unprecedented test. Are Brewer fans ready to accept a step backward after
enjoying a brief taste of success? Macha, who successfully presided over
similar roster transitions while managing four years in Oakland, may be just
the right man for the job.
Final analysis
While there are serious questions about the starting pitching and bullpen, not
many teams boast the kind of potent young bats the Brewers have at just about
every position. With Sabathia in the Bronx, the Brewers are likely to take a
step back unless they discover some unexpected help on the mound and find more
ways to score runs other than relying on the homer.
Beyond the Boxscore
Long time coming For decades, the Brewers’ retro uniforms were the closest the
club came to replicating the success of the 1982 American League champions, the
last Milwaukee team to advance to the postseason. The 26-year slump was busted
when the Brewers earned the National League wild card berth, with Milwaukee
posting consecutive winning seasons for only the second time in franchise
history.
Second round of Brew? Though the loss of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia has many
Brewer fans doubting the likelihood of a return to the playoffs, history may be
on the club’s side. The only two postseason appearances in club history came
in back-to-back seasons — 1981 and 1982.
To be the best, got to beat the best The Brewers took care of business against
NL bottom-feeders (notching a combined 26–3 mark against Pittsburgh, San
Francisco and Washington) but fared far worse against the four playoff teams on
the schedule, going 10–21 against the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers and Red Sox.
Brains and Braun As if being an All-Star, signing the biggest contract in
franchise history and starring in an iPhone commercial weren’t enough for Ryan
Braun, the young slugger also stepped up as one of the team’s most vocal
leaders, issuing blunt wake-up calls to the team after sweeps at Boston and
Philadelphia.
Wanted: Better at-bats For a team known for its offense, the Brewers have room
for improvement at the plate. A free-swinging bunch, Milwaukee ranked 10th in
the NL in on-base percentage (.325), 12th in batting average (.253), 12th in
strikeouts (1,203) and 13th in batting with runners in scoring position (.245).
Hands of stone If pitching and defense win championships, the Brewers are in
trouble on both counts. The top two starting pitchers and the closer are gone,
but one of the worst fielding infields in the majors returns intact: Prince
Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall and J.J. Hardy combined for 64 errors.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The Brewers have had very little success developing
catchers, but along with Angel Salome and Jon Lucroy, Canadian Brett Lawrie, a
native of British Columbia, gives the Brewers hope. Lawrie is more advanced
standing at the plate than he is squatting behind it, and there’s some chatter
that he may eventually be moved to the infield. The power-hitting Lawrie played
for the Canadian Olympic team in the Beijing Games and then joined the Brewers’
instructional league program in Arizona. Scouts say his athleticism and quick
feet could eventually make him a solid backstop, though at this point he’s a
raw talent.
2007 Top Pick — Matt LaPorta, 1B, University of Florida
Slugging prospect dealt to Indians in C.C. Sabathia trade.
2006 Top Pick — Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Halifax (Va.) High School
Flamethrower one of club’s top pitching prospects, but he’s still a couple of
years away. Has 247 strikeouts in 214.1 career minor league innings.
2005 Top Pick — Ryan Braun, 3B, University of Miami
Has quickly emerged as one of game’s top power hitters. Moved to left field.
2004 Top Pick — Mark Rogers, RHP, Mt. Ararat (Maine) High School
Has missed last two seasons after shoulder surgeries.
2003 Top Pick — Rickie Weeks, 2B, Southern University
Took fast track to majors but hasn’t yet lived up to hype.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
3B Mat Gamel (23)
Topps/Minor League Player of the Year fits Brewer mold: strong bat, suspect
glove.
C Jon Lucroy (22)
Expected to spend season in Double-A; hits for power and hard to steal on.
C Angel Salome (22)
Led all Brewer farmhands with .360 average; could be in majors by season’s
end.
OF Lorenzo Cain (22)
Former Arizona Fall League MVP has all the tools and advanced to Double-A last
year.
3B Taylor Green (22)
Brewers’ Minor League Player of the Year in 2007 was Florida State League
All-Star in ’08.
Statistician
0 >> Errors by Ryan Braun in left field in his first season as an outfielder
.245 >> Brewer batting average with RISP, 15th in NL.
.622 >> Milwaukee’s winning percentage in one-run games, tops in the bigs.
12 >> Games remaining in the regular season when manager Ned Yost was fired.
17 >> Consecutive games in which Rickie Weeks scored a run, tying an MLB
record.
28 >> Victories in last at-bat for the Crew in ’08, most in the majors.
30 >> Homers allowed by Jeff Suppan, in 31 starts.
149 >> Starts at catcher by Jason Kendall, tops in MLB and a franchise record.
74-46 >> Brewers’ record in games in which they hit at least one home run.
16-26 >> Record in games in which the Crew failed to go deep.
45 >> Millions of dollars to be earned by Ryan Braun in eight-year
contract, richest in Brewer history.
Difference Maker
With C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets off to greener pastures, right-handed pitcher
Yovani Gallardo — who made all of four starts last year — will be counted on
to fill the role of “ace” of the thin Brewer pitching staff. Stepping into
big roles is nothing new for Gallardo, who started Game 1 of the NLDS last year
after making only one September start, having missed most of the season with a
torn ACL. The 23-year old Gallardo has the stuff and the temperament to deliver
— he was 9–5 with a 3.67 ERA as a rookie in 2007.
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