[翻譯] Five Questions- Milwaukee Brewers

看板Brewers作者broken543 (沒多少時間好殺)時間15年前 (2010/04/01 04:55)推噓3(3推 0噓 1→)

留言4則, 4人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

Five questions: Milwaukee Brewers by Jeff Sackmann March 18, 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-milwaukee-brewers5/ From 90 wins to 80 in one season. Sure, Milwaukee fans are used to seeing the hometown team lose, but the 2008 Wild Card changed the expectation game. Plenty of things went right for the Brewers last year, but the starting rotation was so, so wrong. 一季之差，從90勝到落到了80勝。當然、酒人迷們已經習慣了球隊低迷的戰績，但是08年的外卡改變了大家的期待。上一季對酒人來說、很多事情都做對了，但是先發輪值卻是大錯特錯。 1.Will the rotation be respectable? 今年的輪值圈會像樣點嗎? One thing is certain: It will be tough for the rotation to be worse than it was last year. Brewers starters had an ERA of 5.37 last year (last in the National League, 0.40 behind 15th-place Washington), and that's including a 3.73 ERA from Yovani Gallardo. We could look at some more advanced stats, but they all tell about the same story. 只有一件事可以肯定：那就是輪值要比去年還爛，是件不太可能的事。酒人的先發們去年創下了ERA5.37的成績(國聯墊底，比倒數第二的國民還高了0.4)，而且其中算進了Gallardo的3.73。我們可以查一下進階數據，但是結論並不會有什麼差別。 At least there are some new faces. Along with Gallardo, the top of the rotation will include free-agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. Between them, CHONE predicts that the Crew will get about 330 innings of sub-4.50 pitching. Compared to replacement level, Wolf was a bit pricey. Compared to the disaster that was 2009 Brewers starting pitching, Wolf is a savior. 至少現在補進了新面孔。隨著Gallardo，輪值圈頂端有了FA左投Rndy Wolf 跟Doug Davis。CHONE預測這三人大概可以貢獻330局、4.50左右的成績。以替換層面來看，Wolf還真有點貴。但跟去年酒人先發的災難來比較，Wolf 是個救世主。 Also reassuring is that Dave Bush and Manny Parra have track records suggesting they are capable hurlers. Both rode a wave of poor performance and worse luck to ERAs above 6.00 last year; CHONE projects that both will come in under 5.00 in 2010. 同樣讓人放心的還有Dave Bush和Manny Parra，他們過去的紀錄說明他們也是有能力的投手。去年雙雙因為表現差勁和歹運繳出高於6.00 的ERA。CHONE預測他們今年都會降到5.00以下。 Then there's Jeff Suppan. In a logical world, the Brewers would cut him loose, suffer the emotional pain of a $12 million sunk cost, and give his innings to someone—anyone—else. In this world, he may well end up with a rotation spot. He will give up a lot of runs. 然後是Jeff Suppan。理論上來說，酒人應該要釋出他、硬吃下12M薪水和情緒上的傷痛，然後把他的登板機會給別人─隨便一個都可以。但實際上，他可能會好好待在輪值圈內，然後丟掉一堆自責分。 Even if Suppan sticks in the rotation for most of the season, this is a much-improved rotation. It doesn't look like a playoff-caliber one, but if Parra (still only 27) puts things together and rebounds to something like his 2008 season, it might be good enough to get the job done. 就算這季硬把Suppan留在輪值圈內，這輪值還是已經大大改善了。雖然看起來不像是有季後賽能力，但如果Parra可以重拾他08年的狀態，在季後賽生存也是有可能的。 2.They can field, they can run, but can they hit? 他們可以守、可以跑、但是他們能打嗎? If you're looking for reasons to watch the Brewers this year, here are two: Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Both are among the most gifted defensive players in the game, and they'll be manning shortstop and center field for Milwaukee. 如果你在找今年看酒人的理由，這裡有兩個：Alcides Escobar和Carlos Gomez。兩個都是極有天賦的防守球員，將會是帶來驚奇的游擊手和中外野手。 But both also are young and come with question marks on their offense. Gomez has over 1,000 major league at-bats under his belt, with a sub-.300 on-base percentage to show for it. Brewers coaches are already tinkering with his approach, and he's a candidate (along with Escobar) to bat ninth, behind the pitcher. 但是他們兩個都還年輕、並且在進攻上讓人存疑。Gomez已經在大聯盟累積了超過1000棒次的機會，留下了差不多.300的上壘率。酒人教練團已經因為他在東補西補，並且有機會讓他打第九棒、排在投手後面。 Officially, the Brewers aren't expecting much from the pair, but if both perform at the lower end of their offensive projections, it's easy to see an anemic overall offense result. For all that Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can do, another down year from Corey Hart, a step back from Casey McGehee, and a couple of all-field youngsters could guarantee some awfully easy innings for opposing pitchers. 官方上、酒人並不對他們抱有有什麼太大的期待。但如果兩個都繳出期望值底端的成績，貧血的整體進攻是很有可能的。Braun跟Fielder做他們能做的、Hart又讓人發悶的一年、McGehee的退步，再加上一兩個年輕工具人可以保證讓對手投手很好過。 Fortunately, there is hope. Escobar got on base at a .350 clip in Triple-A last year, and even batted .300 in his stint in the majors. He's shown solid gap power throughout his minor league career, knocking at least 25 doubles in each of the last two seasons. 還好，還有個希望。Escobar去年在3A繳出了.350的上壘率，連在大聯盟期間打擊都有.300的表現。他的砲瓦已經展現了跟在小聯盟生涯的明顯差距，過去兩季最少都有25支二壘安打。 Gomez is a bigger question mark, but he might be the one with more potential at the plate. While he has never had a sterling offensive season, he held his own in the minors at a very young age; he just hasn't seen much in the way of improvement in the last two years. Gomez是讓人比較存疑，但他還是有潛力。過去從來沒有在大聯盟有個完整球季過，因為他的早期生涯都是在小聯盟浮浮沉沉，只是過去兩年他看來沒什麼長進就是。 3.Will Rickie Weeks stay healthy? Rickie Weeks可以保持健康嗎? Probably not. 大概不會 Has Doug Melvin fixed the bullpen yet? Doug Melvin已經把牛棚補好了嗎? Little-known fact outside of Milwaukee: The bullpen wasn't that bad last year. The memory of the 2008 Eric Gagne edition is strong, but finally fading. 有點可能很多人不知道，事實上去年的牛棚並不是很差。08年Gagne留下的印象很深，但它終於淡去了。 Melvin has finally started to figure out how to build a bullpen with a decent payroll. Years ago, he was famous for his scrap heap pickups: Dan Kolb (when he was good), Derrick Turnbow (when he was good), Brian Shouse, and many more. Once he had some money to play with, he spent it on the likes of Gagne, Guillermo Mota, and David Riske. Melvin終於開始嘗試去花大錢重組牛棚。過去幾年，他以他的資源回收步數聞名：Dan Kolb、Derrick Turnbow、Brian Shouse還有其他一堆。只要他手頭上有錢可以燒，他就花在像Gagne、Mota、Riske這種投資上。 Nobody ever said it was easy to build an effective bullpen. This year's edition is a relatively salary-efficient blend of proven vets (Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins), experienced but affordable middle relievers (Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas), and some homegrown pieces (Mitch Stetter, Carlos Villanueva). 沒人說組一個有能力的牛棚很簡單。今年的組成看來跟薪水相比很有價值：已證明身價的Hoffman、Hawkins；有經驗但還可負擔的中繼Coffey、Vargas ；還有幾個自家採收的Stetter、Villanueva。 A better performance from the starting rotation will help, and Hawkins should more than make up for the loss of Mark DiFelice. Hawkins' presence also would make it easier to weather injury or ineffectiveness from the 42-year-old Hoffman. This isn't a world-beating bullpen, but it isn't likely to hold the rest of the team back. 先發輪值的進步可以幫忙，加上Hawkins有著比彌補DiFelice的離去更多的價值。Hawkins的存在可以分擔Hoffman的年邁和衰退問題。這不是個有宰制能力的牛棚，但是至少可以阻止其他隊。 4.Where will Prince Fielder end up, and when? 小王子會何去何從，在何時？ Those annoyed by the constant low-level chatter about a long-term deal for Prince Fielder had better brace themselves. It ain't going away anytime soon. 那些一直喋喋不休要給小王子一份長約的人最好可以閉嘴了，這短期內不會發生。 A quick recap. Prince is now in his second season of arbitration. Last year, he signed a two-year deal that gave the club some cost certainty; this year, he's making $10.5 million. If Scott Boras and the Brewers settle on a one-year contract next year, we could be looking at something in Ryan Howard territory, pushing $20 million. 一個簡單的概括。小王子現在身處仲裁的第二年。去年他簽了一兩年約，這讓球隊的支出有了點肯定性(是說方便計劃啦)；今年、他的薪水是 10.5M。如果酒人跟Boras今年再簽下一紙合約，我們可以期待看到差不多是Ryan Howard等級，逼近20M。 It's conceivable that Milwaukee would do that. Between the low-cost Ryan Braun deal and Suppan's contract coming off the books, the money will be available. It's even possible that the Brewers could convince themselves that Fielder is worth a $150 million, seven-year megadeal. 一般相信Milwaukee會簽下去。有著俗又大碗的Braun加上擺脫Suppan，資金是會夠的。酒人甚至可以說服他們自己簽下一份7y/150M的超值餐。 But this seems unlikely. First of all, Boras will want Fielder to test the rose-tinted waters of free agency. That probably rules out a long-term deal next winter. Second, while Fielder has shown some improvement at first base (-23 in 2006-07 to -7 in 2008-09, according to TotalZone), he's still a designated hitter in the not-too-distant future. The Brewers don't need one of those. 但這看來不太可能發生。第一、Boras會要小王子去誘人的FA試試水溫。這大概會把長約的可能性排除掉。第二、雖然他在一壘的進步是有目共睹 (根據TotalZone，從06-07年的-23降到08-09年的-7)，他在不遠的將來還是會變成個指定打擊。酒人不需要這種角色。 Here's what's going to happen. Unless the Brewers are in the hunt come July, Fielder will be unofficially available almost continuously until Opening Day next year. Doug Melvin will never publicly put him on the trading block, and he'll never back himself into a situation where he "must" trade his star. There won't be a Halladay-esque public bidding war, either. But he'll listen. 事情大概會是這樣。除非酒人七月就把他收了，要不然小王子到明年開季前都一直會是可交易的。Melvin絕對不會公開把他放上交易名單，他不會做出讓自己看起來逼不得已要交易掉球星的舉動。所以不會有像Halladay 那樣的出價大戰，但他會看你拿什麼來換。 The Milwaukee front office isn't stupid. The odds that Fielder is wearing a Cerveceros uniform in 2012 are awfully low. Fielder can net a whole lot more than draft picks, and especially if the 2011 squad is shaping up to be another 80-win mediocrity, there's no reason to pay Fielder $20 million to be there. He might be part of a playoff run in 2010 or 2011, but it remains to be seen whether it's the Brewers he'll be leading into October. Milwaukee的制服組不是白癡。小王子到2012還穿著酒鬼球衣的可能性非常地低。他可以換到的東西比選秀權更有價值，尤其是如果11年又會是個80 勝的雞排球季，更沒有理由用20M把他留下來。他可能會在10年或11年的季後賽陣容內，但這都得看酒人能不能打進10月。 Bonus: Will Ryan Braun be designing T-shirts in October? Braun會在10月設計T-shirt嗎? This is one question on which all of us—Brewers fans, Brewers haters, and Brewers neutrals—can agree. 這是個我們全部─酒人迷、酒人敵、隨便一個人都會同意的回答 Please, please no. 絕對不要 (請看原文、有附圖) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 173.89.0.104