Team Offense, Arizona Diamondbacks
http://baseballmusings.com/?p=48320
The series on team offense continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The
DBacks scored 4.44 runs per game in 2009, ranking 20th in the majors and 8th
in the National League. The order comes from the probable lineup on
CBSSportsline. You can also watch video of manager A.J. Hinch talking about
the lineup here.
The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast
system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the
following results:
* Best lineup: 4.99 runs per game
* Probable lineup: 4.78 runs per game
* Worst lineup: 4.51 runs per game
* Regressed lineup: 4.52 runs per game
The LAT likes Hinch’s 2-3-4-5 hitters batting 1-2-3-4. Putting Drew in the
lead-off slot when he’s projected to own the second lowest OBP among the
eight position players puts the lineup about 0.2 runs behind the optimum. My
guess is that with Drew going into his seasonal age 27 year, the Diamondbacks
are expecting an offensive surge. However, with over 2000 plate appearances,
we have a very good idea how well Drew gets on base, so I would be surprised
to see him post something well above .330. Just flipping Johnson and Drew in
the above order brings the team up to 4.80 runs per game.
This looks like a very good offensive squad. Seven of the eight position
player sport OBP at .330 or better, and the heart of the order produces nice
power. The last few years, however, Arizona looked good offensively going
into the season, but didn’t produce. A.J. Hinch has a chance to turn that
around. With their ballpark, they should be one of the top scoring teams in
the league.
I like Justin Upton’s projection. It’s good without being outrageous for a
player his age. He’s only seasonal age 22 in 2010, and improved in each of
the last two years. That projection could easily turn out to be low, and a
big year by Justin could carry this team a long way.
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