Re: [閒聊] 「點」到底對爪的教練有什麼魅力?
看板Elephants (中信兄弟象)作者Jkid (快爆炸了 -____-#)時間1周前 (2024/04/18 11:05)推噓17(18推 1噓 76→)留言95則, 24人參與討論串5/7 (看更多)
引述podcast “鍵盤球探”查找到的數據
以MLB的大數據為database
無人出局,一二壘有人的情況下,正常攻擊與“觸擊成功”後的得分期望值,會從0.7x下
降到0.5x
若無人出局,一壘有人的情況下,正常攻擊與“觸擊成功”後的得分期望值,會從0.5x下
降到0.3x
當然可能偶爾會有對手失誤等情況造成好的結果,但整體來看得分機會還是只會越來越低
就像考選擇題時一直猜C可能運氣好賽到70,80分
但不可能每一張考卷都這樣
考個十張平均可能只剩30分
除非接下來的打者打擊率只有1~2成
那我想大家不會有什麼意見
可是一直叫狀況最好的打者無差別短打
就像坦克車攻擊時不開砲,一直讓士兵站在上面拿手槍攻擊一樣
※ 引述《CS7788 (肥宅)》之銘言:
: 不太懂有啥問題
: 今天第一個打者上壘
: 為啥不能點
: 一直說啥送出局數
: 有得分才有可能贏這個是硬道理
: 你要一直安打串連
: 偶而吧
: 今天如果犧牲一個打數先得一分 後續也都暢打 真的那麼厲害也可以靠連續安打得分
: 這教練至少邏輯我們抓得到
: 能夠理解
: 可以加打帶跑盜壘等
: 但是要看跑者能力
: 昨天比賽看來就是守備亂
: 導致對方大局
: 跟得分有啥關係
: 開季到現在得分都還不錯
: 通常都是牛棚失分 守備問題 不然如果每場得四分設備投手穩定 勝率應該不會太差
: 而且點從季前都開始了有啥好不適應
--
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