Re: [外電] 對手都說了:笨蛋!問題在Kobe!
看板Lakers (洛杉磯 湖人)作者richard1003 (總板文字獄)時間13年前 (2012/12/21 01:37)推噓44(45推 1噓 87→)留言133則, 44人參與討論串3/4 (看更多)
: 這賽季,湖人(12-14)在Kobe出手超過20次時的勝敗比是4-11,而在Kobe
: 出手低於20次時,他們打出了8-3的成績。這無關乎對手,在出手少於20
: 次時,他們贏過小牛、金塊、勇士、火箭和籃網,這些對手成績都比湖人
: 好。而如果Kobe出手超過20次呢?他們輸給太陽、巫師、七六人和山貓,
: 這些隊伍加起來只有32-64(勝率33.3%)的成績。而出手少獲勝的球隊們,
: 加起來卻有87-112(勝率43.7%)的成績。
第一個引用數據就錯了,湖人對上太陽和山貓明明是贏球
出手超過20次輸球的那兩場應該是溜馬和快艇,這兩隊可不弱
因為球隊搞錯所以後面那個勝率顯然是錯的,我懶得算看有沒有人要算正確的
: This trend intrigued me so I decided to go back even further, checking the
: numbers for the previous two seasons. The evidence was overwhelming: when
: Bryant shoots fewer than 20 times in a game, the Lakers are outstanding. When
: he shoots 20 or more times, they're only slightly above mediocre.
: 這情況讓我(外電作者)相當好奇,所以我決定回頭看前兩個賽季,得到
: 的證據更具有說服力了:Kobe出手低於20次時,湖人打得相當傑出。但
: 當他出手超過20次的話,他們就偏向於二流的球隊。
不止國內啦,國外也是有腦筋不清楚的人
我是因為工作忙才常加班? 還是動作慢老是拖到最後一刻,常加班所以看起來工作忙?
是Kobe多出手導致輸球? 還是快輸了使Kobe不得不多出手?
你如果不把事情的因果關係搞清楚,當然會得出錯誤的結論,
是因為我帶傘出門才下雨,還是下雨所以我帶傘出門?
以今年比賽為例,隊友命中率高的比賽,Kobe幾乎都是讓隊友發揮
對金塊得112分他只出手15次,對小牛得115分只出手11次
對火箭得119分出手18次
那Kobe什麼時候多出手?隊友陷入得分乾旱期,快輸的時候
對溜馬得77分出手28次,對騎士得94分出手28次
當隊友都投不進,當你自己就是全隊最好的進攻選擇
這時候出手不是一種罪惡,而是承擔責任
: Last season, the Lakers were 26-19 when Bryant took 20 or more shots. That's
: a .578 winning percentage. Not bad. But they were 10-3 in the other games, a
: winning percentage of .769. In 2010-11, Phil Jackson's last season, the
: Lakers were 24-17 (.585) when Bryant shot 20 or more times and 33-8 (.805)
: when he took fewer shots.
: 上賽季,湖人在Kobe出手超過20次時拿到了26-19,57.8%的勝率,看起來
: 不錯;但低於20次時卻有10-3,76.9%的勝率。回顧禪師在的最後一個球
: 季,比例更是有差距:58.5%:80.5%。
: So over the past three seasons, including 2012-13, the Lakers are 54-47 when
: Bryant shoots 20 times or more. To put it in perspective, that .535 winning
: percentage equates to a 44-38 record over 82 games. Over that same span, when
: Bryant takes less than 20 shots, the Lakers are 51-14 (.785), which would be
: a 64-18 mark in an 82-game season.
: 從上三個賽季來看,包括本賽季,湖人在Kobe出手超過20次時有53.5%的
: 勝率,如果換算成一個賽季,就是44勝38敗。在同樣的換算方法下,若
: Kobe出手低於20次,有78.5%的勝率,換算起來就是64勝18敗。
: It seems pretty clear cut: the Lakers are better, and would be better this
: season, if Bryant shot less. At least that's what the statistics say.
: 從數據上來看,很明顯的,如果Kobe少投一些,今年的湖人會變得更加的
: 優秀。
老實講這就是標準的引用片面數據得出錯誤結論
你至少應該列一下團隊得分,對手得分,比分差,對手勝率等等條件
沒有人在做科學統計的時候不考慮各種變數,單純拿兩個數字就硬扯他們有關係的
這樣不是科學而是迷信
這種行為跟Jason Terry相信賽前吃炸雞就會贏球一樣,沒有任何根據
: But I didn't want to jump to conclusions simply based on the numbers, so I
: decided to call some of the league's basketball minds to get their take on
: the topic. I wanted to know whether Bryant needed to be reigned in, or
: whether he's simply shooting so much because the Lakers' roster is so limited
: and it's the only chance they have to stay in games.
: 但我(外電作者)不想這麼快只靠數據得到這個結論,所以我問了幾個在NBA
: 裡相關人員的意見。我想知道對他們來說,究竟Kobe想支配比賽,或是Kobe
: 只是不得不投這麼多球來讓湖人維持住比賽的分數。
: I asked one general manager, an assistant coach and two scouts, all of whom
: work for teams that have played Bryant and the Lakers this season. Their
: views were strong:
: 我問了幾個GM、一個助教和兩個球探,這些人所屬的球隊都跟Kobe在本賽季
: 有交手過,他們的觀點非常的強而有力。
名字哩?沒附消息來源,誰知道你訪問的是隔壁老王還是強者我朋友?
這種道聽塗說可信度比數字周刊還不如,至少人家還敢具名
: The assistant coach says:
: "Absolutely, Kobe's shooting too much. When we played them, we told our guys,
: 'Look, we don't necessarily want Kobe going for 50. I mean, we're going to
: guard him. But we're not going to double him, and we're not going to try to
: get the ball out of his hands.' Our main concerns were not to let [Antawn]
: Jamison hit a bunch of 3s and not to let Dwight [Howard] go crazy down low.
: There's no question they would be a better team if Kobe shot less. Why do you
: think [Pau] Gasol struggles? He's going to struggle in any offense where he
: doesn't touch it.
: 助理教練如此說:廢話,Kobe當然投太多了!當我們跟湖人打時,教練團都告訴
: 球員們:我們不在乎Kobe得個50分,我的意思是,只要單防他,不要包夾他,不
: 要讓球離開他的手上。我們只要不讓Antawn Jamison投一堆三分,或是讓Howard
: 在低位肆虐就好。毫無疑問的Kobe少投一點這支球隊會更好,你以為為什麼Gasol
: 如此掙扎?當任何進攻機會他都碰不到球,他不掙扎才怪。
Antawn Jamison投一堆三分的比賽,今年只有兩場
Howard在低位肆虐的比賽更少,掉球失誤罰不進倒是很多
我是不太相信有哪個白痴會說不要守Kobe讓他砍50分也不要給這兩個人拿球啦
Gasol碰不到球?15000分那球誰傳給他的?
誰在Gasol回來第一場就跟他打漂亮配合的?
你確定你訪問的不是隔壁老王嗎?
: "At the end of the day, it has nothing to do with [Mike] D'Antoni and his
: system. It's all about what Kobe will allow to happen. When you play the
: Lakers, it's like they don't have a system. It's whatever Kobe chooses it to
: be. If he wants to take all the shots, he'll do that. He'll pacify his
: teammates early in the game, but then he'll throw up a heat check and if he's
: got it going, nobody else touches the ball. And then the other team benefits
: because the other Lakers won't defend as hard and they won't be engaged
: because they're not a part of the game on the offensive end. Kobe has to
: trust you, and it looks like he thinks most of his guys aren't trustworthy
: yet.
: 而且老實說,面對D'Antoni的系統根本不需要做甚麼應對。因為他的系統就是
: 看Kobe想怎麼打。跟湖人打,就好像湖人沒有任何系統,只看Kobe的選擇。如
: 果他想幹進每一球,他就會這麼做。這對其他湖人球員來說無疑是傷害,他們
: 將很難提起精神防守,因為他們就好像在攻擊端被切割了一樣。Kobe也許會相
: 信你,但看起來他似乎認為到目前為止所有人都不值得信任。
國家隊的教練沒有進攻系統?你胡扯也有個限度
湖人現在的教練雖然也叫Mike可是他不姓Brown好嗎
湖人沒有系統,所以Meeks,Jamison,MWP突然復活都是巧合
湖人得分突然飆到破百也是運氣好而已就對了?
: "The problem between Kobe and Dwight is that you can't have Dwight on the
: floor in the fourth quarter, so how can you play through him. In Kobe's mind,
: that's why he doesn't pass the ball to Dwight. But the Lakers really need to
: sit down with Kobe and say, 'At this stage, this is what's best for the
: Lakers. We've got to play through our bigs.'
: "Memphis is the best high-low team in the league with Marc Gasol and [Zach]
: Randolph. The Lakers could play that way with Dwight and Pau, but with Kobe
: shooting 28 times that's not going to happen. That could definitely work, but
: the key is getting Kobe to sign off on it. The thing bout this league is that
: every team is known for something. When you play the Lakers, you don't worry
: about stopping Kobe. You just make sure those other four guys don't have
: career nights because you can beat the Lakers with Kobe scoring 34, 35
: points. Your biggest worry is if Kobe scores 25 points and has 8 assists and
: then Dwight has 20 points and 16 rebounds and Pau has 18 and 11 and Nash
: scores 16 with 10 assists.''
: 夾在Kobe跟Howard的問題是他不想把Howard放在第四節的場上,如果這麼做了,
: 那就無法忽視他了,在kobe心中,這就是他不想把球傳給Howard的原因了。但湖
: 人應該要告訴Kobe,在這個時間點,這才是最好的選擇,我們必須把球交給隊伍
: 裡的大個子。
交給他的話他罰得進球嗎?
你要昧著良心說讓DH去罰球是最好的選擇?
: 灰熊隊是高低位打得最好的球隊,因為有M.Gasol和Randolph。而湖人也可以如法
: 炮製到Howard和Gasol身上,但當Kobe出手28次就不可能了。這招一定有用,但關
: 鍵是必須把Kobe抽離開。聯盟裡大家都知道,如果要跟湖人打,你不需要煩惱如何
: 守住Kobe,你只要確認其他四個人不會打出生涯新高就好。因為就算Kobe得個34、
: 35分,你照樣可以擊敗他們。但當Kobe得個25分8助攻你就要擔心了,因為Howard
: 會有20分16板,Gasol會有18分11板,Nash會有16分10助攻。
可以看18018篇,實際上就是這兩人今年低位效率低落,比不上灰熊雙塔
現在給他們打結果不會比給Kobe打好
什麼時候湖人雙塔可以增加出手?Nash回來,湖人能打出高水準擋拆的時候
: The scout says:
: "One thing our coach always says is, 'Kobe's probably going to get his 28
: points, but let's make sure it's on 28 shots and not 16 shots.' I would like
: to look at some box scores in detail to see if the Lakers are down in the
: fourth quarter and Kobe starts shooting a lot to lift them to a come back, or
: to see whether he was he getting to the foul line a lot in those other games
: where he didn't have as many field goal attempts.
: "Watching the Lakers play the Knicks this year was hard to watch because the
: other Lakers were just so bad. It was like Kobe was trying to do all he could
: just to keep that game close. And hey, if Dwight's not going to try his butt
: off and if other guys aren't going to try their butts off, then I'm going to
: give the ball to the guy that's going to go for it, and that's Kobe. I don't
: think it's that Kobe doesn't trust his teammates; it's just that he trusts
: himself more. A questionable shot by him still might be better than a good
: look for one of those other guys. To me, they look disinterested.
: "There's no chemistry. They're not pulling for one another. They're just a
: collection of individual talent that happens to be in the same place wearing
: the same uniforms. They look listless. Not Kobe, though.''
: 球探如此說:教練總是告訴球員,Kobe得28分是必然的,但我們要讓他出手28
: 次才得到這些分數,而不是16次。看著分數盒子的細節,去了解湖人在第四節
: 若處於低潮,Kobe就會開始一直投一直投來反擊。但在其他比賽,他若沒有出
: 手太多球,他必然能得到很多罰球的機會。
: 尼克和湖人今年的比賽打得如此難看,就是因為其他湖人球員們很糟。Kobe想
: 盡自己所能的去讓比分不被拉開,但若Howard或其他人不在狀態內,他就會把
: 球交給他所信賴的人,那就是他自己-Kobe。我不認為這代表Kobe不信任自己
: 的隊友,這只代表他更相信他自己。他寧願投出高難度的出手也不願意有個漂
: 亮的傳球給其他隊友。對我來說,他的隊友看起來對這種比賽毫無興趣。
: 這樣完全沒有化學效應,他們不會彼此互相推動每一個人,他們只是一群有著
: 個人的天分,在同一個地方比賽,穿著同樣的制服。他們毫無生氣,當然,Kobe
: 例外。
這沒什麼好說的,Kobe是天生的得分機器,他不是魔術強森
所以不要希望他做魔術強森。
Kobe相信Nash,等Nash回來,讓他做最好的分配
這樣就夠了
: The general manager says:
: "Everyone thinks the problem is everybody else but to me, the problem is
: Kobe. Take a look at Andrew Bynum's quotes the other day, where he said Kobe
: stunted his growth. He didn't like playing with Kobe.
: "And Pau? Pau's a really nice guy and Kobe just walks all over him. On the
: one hand, it's good for Pau because it helps make him tougher but overall, I
: think it hurts his game. Kobe can smack Pau upside the head and Pau will
: still go back to him and say, 'Yes sir.' He's just too nice of a guy. But Pau
: can play. They won a few championships with him, so this notion that Kobe
: doesn't have anyone to play with and that he has to take all these shots is
: just wrong. Go back to the Oklahoma City series. Everybody blamed it on Pau
: and Bynum, but to me, it was more Kobe's fault.
: And we know what kind of a player Dwight is. He's not at his best because
: he's coming off the back injury and because of the system D'Antoni's running,
: but it's obvious to me that Kobe doesn't trust him. And I'm not so sure he
: likes the way Dwight jokes around so much.''
: GM如此說:每個人都認為問題不是出在我身上,這就是Kobe的問題。看看前幾天
: Bynum說Kobe限制了他的發展,他一點也不喜歡跟Kobe一同打球。
: 而Gasol呢?他是個很棒的傢伙,而Kobe壓制了他。對Gasol來說或許能讓他更為
: 堅強,但整體來說,這是在傷害比賽。Kobe可以敲Gasol的頭,而Gasol卻只能說
: "Yes,Sir",就因為Gasol人太好。但Gasol還是能打的,他們在有Gasol的情況下
: 贏過幾次冠軍,所以Kobe這種認為沒人是他隊友,他要自幹每個投籃的想法是錯
: 的。回頭看看跟雷霆的系列賽,很多人都怪罪在禁區雙塔,但對我來說,我覺得
: Kobe的責任更大。
事實是,Gasol跟Bynum,是在和Kobe合作時,才打出生涯高峰
很有趣的是,當他們陷入低潮,你居然怪罪的不是他們自己而是Kobe?
你可以回去看看08年的Gasol,多麼輕鬆寫意,多麼神采奕奕
那時候Kobe出手是有比現在少喔?
怎麼現在就叫做Kobe壓制他?
: 我們都知道Howard是多棒的球員,他現在不在最佳狀態,是因為傷勢和D'Antoni
: 體系的不合。但對我來說很明顯的,Kobe不信任他,我不知道是不是因為Howard
: 很愛四處開玩笑的關係。
這個真的是純粹的腦補了,完全沒半點根據
講這種話不會臉紅嗎?
: Another scout says:
: "That's been debated a lot -- whether Kobe is shooting too much. It's hard to
: argue against that if they're 8-3 when he doesn't shoot it 20 times. But I'd
: have to look at each game and study the game situations to really come to a
: conclusion. I don't think he's purposely hogging the ball or doing things
: selfishly to keep the team from winning. He's not trying to do anything to
: hurt the team. If he is shooting too much, it's only because he thinks that's
: what he has to do for the Lakers to win.
: "My gut reaction is to say that Kobe does not need to shoot less. He's a top
: 5 player in the league, he's leading the league in scoring and he's shooting
: a good percentage. That's a big key - he's shooting a high percentage. It'd
: be one thing if he was forcing up shots and shooting poorly. But I will say
: this, when you have as much talent as they do, you shouldn't have to shoot it
: as much as Kobe has been.''
: 另一個球探則說:關於Kobe是否射太多的問題這已經被討論到爛了。但擺在眼前
: 的事實很難被反駁-他們在Kobe低於20次出手時拿下了8-3的成績。但我必須要
: 看過每場比賽的狀況才能得出結論。我不認為他是想要有出手權並打出自私的球
: 風來幫助球隊維持住比賽分數差距,他不是在試圖傷害這支球隊。如果他出手太
: 多次,只是他想要這麼做來幫助湖人隊贏球。
: 我直覺得反應是Kobe不該減少出手,他是聯盟前五名的球員,他是聯盟得分王且
: 有著很棒的命中率。這是重點-他有很棒的命中率。但我還是要說,當你有這麼
: 棒的隊友在隊伍裡,你還是不該要出手這麼多。
你說的很棒隊友,一個今年只打兩場比賽,一個休了一個月
一個第四節會被人家駭,請問要傳給誰?
: 我不認為一直逃避這個話題對貴版是好事情,這在國外的湖人論壇都討論到
: 翻掉的話題,為什麼在這裡不能討論呢?難道Kobe不是湖人隊的一員嗎?大
: 家討論難道不是希望湖人戰績變得更好嗎?
沒有人在逃避,而是這話題早就討論到爛掉了,日經文實在很難提起興趣
沒有人禁止你討論,但是請你言之有物,有自己的看法
不是看到文章就按x,只有小腦在思考
至於你的動機,恩,如果我轉一篇酸豪哥的文章到Lin板,
也可以說我希望豪哥好就沒事了這樣?
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12/21 01:53, , 23F
12/21 01:53, 23F
→
12/21 01:53, , 24F
12/21 01:53, 24F
→
12/21 01:54, , 25F
12/21 01:54, 25F
→
12/21 01:54, , 26F
12/21 01:54, 26F
推
12/21 01:55, , 27F
12/21 01:55, 27F
推
12/21 01:56, , 28F
12/21 01:56, 28F
→
12/21 01:57, , 29F
12/21 01:57, 29F
→
12/21 02:03, , 30F
12/21 02:03, 30F
→
12/21 02:03, , 31F
12/21 02:03, 31F
→
12/21 02:04, , 32F
12/21 02:04, 32F
→
12/21 02:04, , 33F
12/21 02:04, 33F
→
12/21 02:04, , 34F
12/21 02:04, 34F
推
12/21 02:06, , 35F
12/21 02:06, 35F
推
12/21 02:23, , 36F
12/21 02:23, 36F
→
12/21 02:23, , 37F
12/21 02:23, 37F
推
12/21 02:27, , 38F
12/21 02:27, 38F
→
12/21 02:27, , 39F
12/21 02:27, 39F
還有 54 則推文
→
12/21 11:46, , 94F
12/21 11:46, 94F
→
12/21 11:47, , 95F
12/21 11:47, 95F
→
12/21 11:47, , 96F
12/21 11:47, 96F
→
12/21 11:47, , 97F
12/21 11:47, 97F
推
12/21 12:02, , 98F
12/21 12:02, 98F
→
12/21 12:02, , 99F
12/21 12:02, 99F
→
12/21 12:02, , 100F
12/21 12:02, 100F
→
12/21 12:02, , 101F
12/21 12:02, 101F
→
12/21 12:02, , 102F
12/21 12:02, 102F
推
12/21 12:03, , 103F
12/21 12:03, 103F
推
12/21 12:39, , 104F
12/21 12:39, 104F
推
12/21 13:02, , 105F
12/21 13:02, 105F
推
12/21 13:34, , 106F
12/21 13:34, 106F
→
12/21 13:35, , 107F
12/21 13:35, 107F
→
12/21 13:36, , 108F
12/21 13:36, 108F
→
12/21 13:36, , 109F
12/21 13:36, 109F
推
12/21 13:37, , 110F
12/21 13:37, 110F
推
12/21 13:41, , 111F
12/21 13:41, 111F
噓
12/21 18:05, , 112F
12/21 18:05, 112F
推
12/21 18:47, , 113F
12/21 18:47, 113F
→
12/21 18:49, , 114F
12/21 18:49, 114F
→
12/21 18:50, , 115F
12/21 18:50, 115F
→
12/21 19:01, , 116F
12/21 19:01, 116F
推
12/21 21:13, , 117F
12/21 21:13, 117F
→
12/21 21:14, , 118F
12/21 21:14, 118F
推
12/21 21:59, , 119F
12/21 21:59, 119F
→
12/22 00:42, , 120F
12/22 00:42, 120F
→
12/22 00:44, , 121F
12/22 00:44, 121F
→
12/22 00:44, , 122F
12/22 00:44, 122F
→
12/22 00:44, , 123F
12/22 00:44, 123F
→
12/22 00:45, , 124F
12/22 00:45, 124F
推
12/22 09:07, , 125F
12/22 09:07, 125F
推
12/22 09:11, , 126F
12/22 09:11, 126F
推
12/22 09:15, , 127F
12/22 09:15, 127F
→
12/22 09:16, , 128F
12/22 09:16, 128F
→
12/22 09:19, , 129F
12/22 09:19, 129F
→
12/22 09:20, , 130F
12/22 09:20, 130F
→
12/22 09:23, , 131F
12/22 09:23, 131F
→
12/22 09:25, , 132F
12/22 09:25, 132F
推
12/23 22:57, , 133F
12/23 22:57, 133F
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