[外電] 熱火-溜馬 Scouting Report

看板LeBronJames (雷霸龍·詹姆士 - 詹姆斯)作者Paraguay (巴拉圭)時間11年前 (2014/05/19 04:00)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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※ [本文轉錄自 MiamiHeat 看板 #1JUF_IKG ] 作者: kart (=\) 站內: MiamiHeat 標題: [外電] 熱火-溜馬 Scouting Report 時間: Mon May 19 02:45:36 2014 原文：http://ppt.cc/gen.php 開打前外電，算是中肯。可看看。 We told you this was inevitable, right? The champion Miami Heat and the East's No. 1 contender, the Indiana Pacers, are finally set for the long-anticipated rematch of last spring's seven-game Conference finals classic. The Heat have more or less cruised to this stage of the season, managing the minutes and effort of their stars through the 82-game slog, landing a good-enough 2-seed and rolling past Charlotte and Brooklyn to get their hunt for a three-peat rolling. Indiana spent most of the last calendar year training in anger for this moment, like Robert DeNiro's character from "Cape Fear." The Pacers' revenge mission was on track until March 4, when Indiana began a long stretch of inconsistency and mediocrity that has been one of the more confounding developments in recent NBA history. 就跟你說這兩隊對決是早就預定好的了吧。衛冕軍 vs 季賽東區第一種子這系列應該是自從去年的7場大戰後就寫好劇本的了。熱火季賽養身，仍然拿到了個不賴的第二種子，並且在前兩輪輕鬆解決了山貓和籃網（相對而言）。反之，溜馬則花了一整年的時間養氣，並且期待報仇的那一天到來，直到三月四號為止：因為之後的溜馬打得荒腔走板。 Overall, Indiana has split its last 36 games, but you know what? The Pacers are still here, with the entirety of their yearlong quest still rolled out before them: They are facing the Heat again, they are the No. 1 seed, and they own home-court advantage. 總的來看，溜馬最後36場球只有很一般的18-18。但是你知道什麼嗎？他們還是撐過來了。他們將要對決熱火，而他們還有主場優勢。 QUESTION 1: Last season we focused entirely on how the Pacers were a nightmare matchup for Miami. Who makes whom more uncomfortable this time around? 問題一：去年我們一直說溜馬在對位上給了熱火很大的噩夢。今年這個對位上，誰會給誰更大麻煩？ Elhassan: I don't know if the Pacers make the Heat uncomfortable so much as they feel comfortable playing Miami. For whatever reason, they approach playing the defending champs with a lot more confidence than they do an upstart No. 8 seed like Atlanta, despite Miami similarly trotting out small-ball lineups that don't (on paper) match up well with Indiana's frontcourt. Roy Hibbert in particular has been a barometer of success for the Pacers against Miami: In two wins, he averaged 22.5 points on 57 percent shooting and has managed to make his presence felt around the rim by demanding attention on boxouts and discouraging forays to the rim defensively. Elhassan: 我不知道你可以說溜馬讓熱火很頭大而自己卻對球隊對位上感到舒適。但是不論啥原因，他們似乎打熱火時總能信心爆棚，打第八種子時反而顯得憋腳。即使老鷹基本上所有的對位優勢都跟熱火類似，而這種球隊一向不是溜馬擅長對付的。西伯特的表現將決定溜馬這一系列能打多好，他在今年的兩勝中平均 22.5分，57%的命中率。而他在籃下的防守好壞也是關鍵之一。 Doolittle: Yep, Hibbert is the key. He shined in the wins as you mentioned, but in the losses it was ugly: 5.5 points, 40 percent shooting and just 1.5 boards. If he produces like that in this series, it will be a Miami sweep. Fortunately for the Pacers, the Heat still don't have the post defender who can stand up to Hibbert. Oh, and Greg Oden has been sitting with the team during the playoffs, wearing a very nice looking tailored suit. Perhaps the sight of it will be enough to distract Hibbert. Doolittle: 是低，西伯特是關鍵。他在贏球時的表現總是特別亮眼，但是他輸球時也是很醜陋：5.5分，40%命中率和1.5顆籃板。如果他在這系列是輸球形態的表現，那溜馬肯定被橫掃。幸運的是，熱火的確沒有任何能給西伯特帶來麻煩的禁區球員。歐，忘了提Oden，他今年季後賽在板凳上看起來挺不賴。唔..也許西伯特會因為看到他而分心吧，呵呵。 During the playoffs, it's looked as though Hibbert gets going when he's made the focus of the Indy offense early, and once he gets momentum, he's usually able to sustain it. His energy on the glass and on defense then picks up. Everyone looks at him as the Miami killer, so it's unlikely the Pacers will forget about Hibbert, as has so often happened the last two-plus months. But of course that should have been the case against Atlanta, as well. In any event, it's impossible to predict the performance of a player who is as likely to score four points as he is 20. Of most concern: Hibbert has had just three double-digit rebound games since the beginning of February. The Pacers have been outrebounded during the playoffs, and Miami is 23-2 when they win the rebounding battle, playoffs included. And one of those losses was a one-point, double-overtime defeat to Minnesota. 西伯特的作用通常在賽初可以看出，如果賽初打得好，他往往會有不錯的表現。而他的籃板和防守也跟這段時間息息相關。大家都認為他是熱火殺手，所以我相信溜馬不會把他給遺忘的- 過去兩個多月以來常發生。當然他的表現很難預測，畢竟他大概是得4分和得20分機率差不多的球員。不過最令人憂心的是他自從今年二月開始，籃板上雙只出現過三次。溜馬在這個季後賽籃板是處於被搶爆的狀態。熱火在籃板上當贏了對手時，本季(包括季後賽）是23-2，其中一敗是對灰狼的一分，兩次延長敗。 QUESTION 2: Can the Pacers win without dominating the boards? 問題二：溜馬能在籃板上沒有完爆熱火而贏得系列嗎？ Elhassan: Short answer: no. The formula for beating Miami has been a steady diet of offensive rebounding, coupled with a strong post-up 4 or 5, capable wing defenders and backcourt scoring. A lot of what made Indiana a tough out last year was checking all of those boxes. Without the threat of offense created through second- and third-chance opportunities, there is no penalty for Miami running small lineups. This bears out in what we saw during the regular season, where Indiana struggled in the two losses where they weren't able to make a dent on the offensive glass. Elhassan: 簡短地說：不行。要打敗熱火大家都知道是要猛搶進攻籃板，和有一對強力的4-5號球員。溜馬去年能跟熱火打得難分難解就是在這些點上做得很好。如果他們沒辦法有足夠的二三次進攻機會，那他們就等於沒有利用熱火的小陣容來予以攻擊。這就是季賽那兩敗我們所看見的狀況。 Doolittle: No they can't, and they may not have a shot even if Indy gets back to dominating on the offensive glass, which it hasn't been doing in the playoffs. Last season, the Pacers grabbed 32.4 percent of their own misses in the playoffs to lead all teams. This year, they haven't had even one game with a rebound rate that high, and they grabbed six or fewer offensive boards in five of the six games against Washington -- and it certainly wasn't because they were shooting the lights out. Doolittle: 打不敗。事實上即使他們完爆籃板也不見得能打贏。而這個季後賽溜馬的籃板效率非常一般。去年溜馬在季後賽能搶到32.4%自己的投失球，這領先於所有季後賽球隊。今年打到現在，他們還沒有一場球能搶到這個百分比的失投球。他們在對巫師的系列基本上是反而被爆籃板。 Nevertheless, this Pacers offense needs those second-chance opportunities to score enough points to beat Miami. Unfortunately, Miami has mastered the art of winning without rebounding. Of the Heat's seven worst performances on the defensive glass this season, they've won them all. You can extend that to 26 wins in their 30 lowest defensive rebound percentages. It's pretty amazing when you think about it. 不論如何，溜馬的進攻仰賴二次進攻的機會很大。很不幸的是，熱火是不用搶籃板而能贏球的箇中好手。（籃球名宿安西教練：............）這樣說吧，熱火在季賽七場防守籃板保護最差的比賽裡，七場皆勝。事實上，在30場防守籃板最差的比賽中，他們贏了26場。如果你仔細想想這些數字，你會覺得很驚人。 QUESTION 3: The LeBron James versus Paul George matchup is always fascinating to watch. Has George closed the gap at all? 問題三： LBJ vs PG，很棒的對決。PG拉近了一點差距嗎？ Elhassan: Yes, in the sense that I can close the gap in a race with a guy in a Ferrari if he decides to stop for gas 20 miles in. George is a better and more confident player than he was last year, and he has improved specifically at attacking off the dribble and playmaking. He has a bad knack of resorting to harder shots but can get on a hot streak, and he gives Miami one more offensive threat to worry about. Elhassan: 是的，如果要說，就像說我跟一個開法拉利的賽跑，開法拉利的人只開20英里/hr的話。 PG是打得更好，也比去年更有信心。他的運球和傳球都更好了。他投籃選擇不佳，但是偶而也可以連進n球。他的確會讓熱火有點麻煩。 Defensively, the hope for Indiana is the experience of guarding LeBron over 20 games during the last three seasons has prepared George to be a savvier and more calculating defender. George is not and will never be better than James, but he just needs to be good enough for Indiana to win. 防守上，溜馬希望PG在過去三年已經守了LBJ不下20場能有更好的表現， PG並沒有，也永遠不會比Lebron優秀，但是他不需要比Lebron優秀，就能讓遛馬贏球。 Doolittle: I can't match the Ferrari analogy, but sure, Paul George has continued to improve. He's still nowhere near LeBron's level, which by the way has been stratospheric during the playoffs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, LeBron's 32.9 PER this postseason is the third-highest. Ever. Another nugget from our stats group: The last two seasons on plays in which James and George have guarded each other, LeBron has averaged 16.8 points on 51.5 percent shooting; George is at 6.9 points on 42.7 percent. Doolittle: 我想不出比法拉利比喻更好的類比惹。但是的確，PG有在進步。他還看不到LBJ的車尾燈。而LBJ今年季後賽打得非常好，目前32.9的PER是史上第三高。而過去兩季兩人互相放對的攻守數據如下： LBJ 16.8ppg, 51.5% FG PG 6.9ppg, 42.7% FG Predictions 預測 Elhassan: Heat in 6 games. Despite the relative ease it took Miami to get here (and the struggle for Indiana to get here), I think this series will still be extremely competitive and come down to end-of-game execution. Elhassan: 熱火4-2晉級。即使熱火看來在季後賽打得很輕鬆，溜馬打得很辛苦，我認為這系列還是會打得非常接近。 Don't be surprised if: We see James guarding Hibbert in some late-game situations, freeing up Bosh to deter David West with his length. 不要覺得驚訝如果：我們看到Lebron防守Hibbert，讓Bosh可以去打West。 Doolittle: Heat in 6 games. The Pacers have proven resilient, so I don't see this as a blowout matchup, and they do have the home-court advantage. But Indy's best-case scenario was to enter this series with the engine humming on all cylinders. Obviously, it is not. Nevertheless, I'd be shocked if we see the same kind of energy lapses that have plagued the Pacers the last two months. Doolittle: 熱火4-2。溜馬是很頑強的。不要期望看到大比分勝出。而且溜馬還有主場優勢。然而溜馬要贏要有最佳狀態，很顯然目前的溜馬離最佳狀態有一段距離。 Don't be surprised if: The Lance Stephenson-Dwyane Wade matchup turns out to be the real bellwether for this series. That's probably not good news for the Pacers. 不要驚訝如果： Stephenson-Wade的對決是這系列的勝負關鍵。但是我認為這對溜馬來說不會是好消息。 Log5 probabilities: 51 percent chance Pacers win series. 賭盤預測：溜馬51%機會晉級。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 72.34.128.250 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MiamiHeat/M.1400438738.A.510.html