2010 Five Questions: Milwaukee Brewers

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者sjvious (LoveIsSweetMisery)時間15年前 (2010/04/02 03:02)推噓5(5推 0噓 6→)

留言11則, 4人參與討論串1/3 (看更多)

有錯還請推文告知，小弟會立刻修改。 Milwaukee Brewers http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-milwaukee-brewers5/ From 90 wins to 80 in one season. Sure, Milwaukee fans are used to seeing the hometown team lose, but the 2008 Wild Card changed the expectation game. Plenty of things went right for the Brewers last year, but the starting rotation was so, so wrong. 一年之間從90勝退步到80勝(08~09)。當然，當酒鬼迷已經開始習慣在自家主場輸球時 08年的外卡資格改變了一切。去年很多事都有了正向的改變，但是先發輪值還是一樣，一樣的糟。 Will the rotation be respectable? 先發輪值會受到世人的尊重嗎？ One thing is certain: It will be tough for the rotation to be worse than it was last year. Brewers starters had an ERA of 5.37 last year (last in the National League, 0.40 behind 15th-place Washington), and that's including a 3.73 ERA from Yovani Gallardo. We could look at some more advanced stats, but they all tell about the same story. 一件事是已確定的：對於新輪值來說，要投得比去年糟糕是很困難地。去年酒鬼輪值擁有 5.37 的 ERA (國聯最後一名，比前一名的國民還多0.40) 這當中還包含了新生代王牌強投 Yovani Gallardo 的 3.73。我們可以從更多進階的數據來看，但結果還是一樣地。 At least there are some new faces. Along with Gallardo, the top of the rotation will include free-agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. Between them, CHONE predicts that the Crew will get about 330 innings of sub-4.50 pitching. Compared to replacement level, Wolf was a bit pricey. Compared to the disaster that was 2009 Brewers starting pitching, Wolf is a savior. 至少有三位是新面孔。除了 Gallardo 前段輪值還包含了FA簽來的 Randy Wolf 以及 Doug Davis。CHONE 預測他們兩個大概能有330局的工作量且 ERA 低於 4.50。以市場價格來說 Wolf 確實有一點點貴，但對於去年殘破的輪值，Wolf 顯然是一位酒鬼救星。 Also reassuring is that Dave Bush and Manny Parra have track records suggesting they are capable hurlers. Both rode a wave of poor performance and worse luck to ERAs above 6.00 last year; CHONE projects that both will come in under 5.00 in 2010. 同樣令然感到安慰的事是 Dave Bush 和 Manny Parra 都已把他們的ERA推向生涯新高去年他們倆都以糟糕的表現領了一張ERA超過6的成績單。CHONE 預測他們兩ERA今年都會低於5。 Then there's Jeff Suppan. In a logical world, the Brewers would cut him loose, suffer the emotional pain of a $12 million sunk cost, and give his innings to someone—anyone—else. In this world, he may well end up with a rotation spot. He will give up a lot of runs. 再來是 Jeff Suppan，邏輯上來說酒鬼應該買斷他12M的肥約，甚至賣給其他潘那但現實的結果是，他是球隊的第五號先發，且會設法減少他自己的失分。(??) Even if Suppan sticks in the rotation for most of the season, this is a much-improved rotation. It doesn't look like a playoff-caliber one, but if Parra (still only 27) puts things together and rebounds to something like his 2008 season, it might be good enough to get the job done. 假使說 Suppan 罩得住的話，這輪值已經比去年進步很多了。雖然看起來不像能打進季後賽的輪值，但如果才27歲的 Parra 能再度投出08年的好成績，看起來還有點搞頭。 They can field, they can run, but can they hit? 他們能守能跑，但能打安打嗎？ If you're looking for reasons to watch the Brewers this year, here are two: Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Both are among the most gifted defensive players in the game, and they'll be manning shortstop and center field for Milwaukee. 如果你想找本季看酒鬼球賽的原因，這有兩個：Alcides Escobar 和 Carlos Gomez 兩位都是天生的守備好手一個站游擊大關一個則在中外野。 But both also are young and come with question marks on their offense. Gomez has over 1,000 major league at-bats under his belt, with a sub-.300 on-base percentage to show for it. Brewers coaches are already tinkering with his approach, and he's a candidate (along with Escobar) to bat ninth, behind the pitcher. 但兩隻都還年輕而且進攻還是個問號。Gomez 在1000個大聯盟打數裡上壘率低於3成教練們正在極力挽救，他跟 Escobar 同時也是打第九棒的人選之一(在投手後面) Officially, the Brewers aren't expecting much from the pair, but if both perform at the lower end of their offensive projections, it's easy to see an anemic overall offense result. For all that Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can do, another down year from Corey Hart, a step back from Casey McGehee, and a couple of all-field youngsters could guarantee some awfully easy innings for opposing pitchers. 據傳，酒鬼對於兩隻新秀並沒有太高的期望，如果他們不能展現出進攻能力，那打線看起來會相當貧弱。除了 Braun 跟 Fielder 外，在生涯低點的 Corey Hart 和退步的 Casey McGehee 及兩隻年輕新秀，可以讓對手投起來很輕鬆。 Fortunately, there is hope. Escobar got on base at a .350 clip in Triple-A last year, and even batted .300 in his stint in the majors. He's shown solid gap power throughout his minor league career, knocking at least 25 doubles in each of the last two seasons. 幸運的是，還有希望。Escobar 去年在3A的上壘率是.350 以及上MLB後的.300 AVG 他在大聯盟生涯有個好的起步，過去兩個球季都有至少25隻的二壘安打。 Gomez is a bigger question mark, but he might be the one with more potential at the plate. While he has never had a sterling offensive season, he held his own in the minors at a very young age; he just hasn't seen much in the way of improvement in the last two years. Gomez 的問題比較大，但他的淺力應該不只如此。即使他在進攻上沒有過代表性的球季但他很年輕就上MLB，只是過去兩個球季沒有明顯的進步。 Will Rickie Weeks stay healthy? Rickie Weeks 會保持健康嗎？ Probably not. 我想不會。 Has Doug Melvin fixed the bullpen yet? Doug Melvin 有改善牛棚嗎？ Little-known fact outside of Milwaukee: The bullpen wasn't that bad last year. The memory of the 2008 Eric Gagne edition is strong, but finally fading. 場外小知識：酒鬼牛棚去年並沒有很爛。回想08年的剛爺，曇花一現。 Melvin has finally started to figure out how to build a bullpen with a decent payrol. Years ago, he was famous for his scrap heap pickups: Dan Kolb (when he was good), Derrick Turnbow (when he was good), Brian Shouse, and many more. Once he had some money to play with, he spent it on the likes of Gagne, Guillemo Mota, and David Riske. Melvin 終於開始體會如何把錢花在刀口上。幾年前，他以砂礫堆中找珍珠出名，如： Dan Kolb、Derrick Turnbow、Brian Shouse 等等。等到他有大筆預算時，他就簽了剛爺、Mota 跟 David Riske 。 Nobody ever said it was easy to build an effective bullpen. This year's edition is a relatively salary-efficient blend of proven vets (Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins), experienced but affordable middle relievers (Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas), and some homegrown pieces (Mitch Stetter, Carlos Villanueva). 沒人說過打造有效率的牛棚事件易事，今年的方針是薪資與效率成正比和仔細地審核(??) 像 Hoffman 跟 Hawkins。有經驗且能負擔長中繼的:Coffey、Vargas。和一些農作物: Stetter、Villanueva。 A better performance from the starting rotation will help, and Hawkins should more than make up for the loss of Mark DiFelice. Hawkins' presence also would make it easier to weather injury or ineffectiveness from the 42-year-old Hoffman. This isn't a world-beating bullpen, but it isn't likely to hold the rest of the team back. 先發輪值有好的表現的話幫助會更大，Hawkins 應該可以彌補甚至超越 DiFelice 的空缺有了 Hawkins 的加入如果 Hoffman 發生什麼狀況他也可以直接遞補42歲的救援王。這並不是多強大的牛棚，但足以成為實用的後盾。 Where will Prince Fielder end up, and when? 小王子最終將情歸何處？何時呢？ Those annoyed by the constant low-level chatter about a long-term deal for Prince Fielder had better brace themselves. It ain't going away anytime soon. 這句不太會。 A quick recap. Prince is now in his second season of arbitration. Last year, he signed a two-year deal that gave the club some cost certainty; this year, he's making $10.5 million. If Scott Boras and the Brewers settle on a one-year contract next year, we could be looking at something in Ryan Howard territory, pushing $20 million. 快速回顧：小王子正在薪資仲裁的第二年，去年他簽了2年約無疑給了酒鬼很大的支出今年10.5M。如果 Bora$ 跟酒鬼談好明年簽一年約的話，猴兒的20M是對照組。 It's conceivable that Milwaukee would do that. Between the low-cost Ryan Braun deal and Suppan's contract coming off the books, the money will be available. It's even possible that the Brewers could convince themselves that Fielder is worth a $150 million, seven-year megadeal. 是可以想像酒鬼高層會這麼做的。在 Braun 的佛心約和 Suppan 的肥約之間，酒鬼應該還負擔得起。酒鬼甚至肖想7年150M綁住小王子是可行的。(哈哈哈---) But this seems unlikely. First of all, Boras will want Fielder to test the rose-tinted waters of free agency. That probably rules out a long-term deal next winter. Second, while Fielder has shown some improvement at first base (-23 in 2006-07 to -7 in 2008-09, according to TotalZone), he's still a designated hitter in the not-too-distant future. The Brewers don't need one of those. 不過這似乎不太可能。首先，Bora$ 會希望小王子先到FA試試水溫。這或許排除了簽長約的可能。其次，雖然小王子一壘的守備年年在進步，但不久的將來他也許會變打DH(??) 酒鬼一點都不想看到這些結果。 Here's what's going to happen. Unless the Brewers are in the hunt come July, Fielder will be unofficially available almost continuously until Opening Day next year. Doug Melvin will never publicly put him on the trading block, and he'll never back himself into a situation where he "must" trade his star. There won't be a Halladay-esque public bidding war, either. But he'll listen. 以下是有可能會發生的：除非酒鬼加入六月的交易旺季，Fielder 會被低調的談到交易的可能性(有可能被偷賣掉)一直到明年球季開幕前。Melvin 不會想把他放到交易名單或是讓自己處在跳樓大拍賣的處境。如此一來變不會發生去年鳥王的案例。 The Milwaukee front office isn't stupid. The odds that Fielder is wearing a Cerveceros uniform in 2012 are awfully low. Fielder can net a whole lot more than draft picks, and especially if the 2011 squad is shaping up to be another 80-win mediocrity, there's no reason to pay Fielder $20 million to be there. He might be part of a playoff run in 2010 or 2011, but it remains to be seen whether it's the Brewers he'll be leading into October. 酒鬼高層不是白癡。小王子在2012年穿Cerveceros制服的機率相當低。(??) 小王子比一大堆選秀全都還值錢，尤其是假使2011年的隊型還有可能拿下80勝的話絕對沒有理由給只給他1年20M。10年或11年他可能會是季後賽的一份子，但仍有待觀察他是不是那個帶領酒鬼前進10月的人。 Bonus: Will Ryan Braun be designing T-shirts in October? This is one question on which all of us—Brewers fans, Brewers haters, and Brewers neutrals—can agree. Please, please no. Braun 會設計10月大賽的T-shirts嗎？拜託不要。(見圖) 翻到一直度估 Orz 明早在修~來悃~ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 125.224.68.186