Re: [外電] 2010 Five Questions: Los Angeles Dod …

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者mosh (月古止手)時間15年前 (2010/04/02 18:25)推噓1(1推 0噓 3→)

留言4則, 1人參與討論串3/3 (看更多)

※ 引述《Conjuror (阿啾)》之銘言：僅從原po的翻譯做部分修改 []內為個人的閒聊意見 ()內為補充的說明有錯請多指教 : Other than deflecting attention from the Manny Ramirez contract drive circus, : the answer is probably "not a whole lot." The litigation to resolve the : ownership of the club, once scheduled to begin May 24, has been postponed : indefinitely. Reaching a resolution during this baseball season is a : long-shot, and don't put this thing past extending all the way into 2011. : With the ownership of the club up in the air, one wonders, should the season : have a successful ending, if Jamie McCourt might petition the family law : court to award her a locker-room-style champagne celebration to keep her on : equal footing with Frank. 這官司除了能讓大家從 Manny 合約的問題轉移注意以外答案是(對道奇隊)會小有影響畢竟這官司原本預計五月底才打，但現在已無限期延期，而且方案說不定會拖到2011年在不曉得球隊的經營權歸誰的情況下，如果本季是個成功的球季或許Jamie McCourt 會向法院請求獎勵，讓她關門自high一下來慶祝她能和她老公有一樣的立足點(比較基準相同，能要求比較多錢?) [不是很確定] : This team is supermodel-thin in the outfield. It's got a kiddie-pool infield— : breadth in lots of options, but no depth in talent. The outfield—Ramirez, : Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier—is backed up by Johnson and the mythical Jason : Repko. Greg Miller disease, you see. Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal and James : Loney are assured starting spots in the infield, while Blake Dewitt and : Alfredo Amezaga are battling the aforementioned Belliard and Carroll for the : second base job. If one of the non-Loney infielders goes down—and remember, : Furca is a member of this group—then the replacement would likely come from : one of the losers of the second base competition. Catcher Russell Martin, : facing serious questions about his own future, is backed up by A.J. Ellis, : whose tangible skills include getting on base at an acceptable rate and, : well, getting on base at an acceptable rate. : 這球隊的外野防區像是個超級巨星聚集地 : 但內野就像小孩子遊戲的地方，是有很多可以抓來當替補的 : 但是好用的就不是那麼多了外野有 Ramirez, Kemp 和 Ethier，還有 Johnson 跟神秘的Jason Repko 在等著 Greg Miller 的情況你曉得的 (2004 RHP top prospect, 05兩肩膀掛掉開刀就沒起色過) [這裡是指 Repko 腳踝也有傷, 怕變成下一個 Miller, 所以才用mythical形容] : 而 Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal 跟 James Loney 都確定了他們在內野的先發位置 : Blake Dewitt 跟 Alfredo Amezaga 還在等著看要選誰 : Belliard 跟 Carroll 也還沒決定要放誰在二壘 : 如果受傷的內野手不是 Loney 的話，那就會讓二壘比輸的放去他的位置 : 補手的位置現在也有 A.J. Ellis 當備用，他的上壘率也還可以…嗯，就還可以 : If one of the outfielders, the three of which are the team's best hitters, : has to miss extended time, this team might be toast. The good news is that : Kemp and Ethier are reliable and young. The bad news is the other is Ramirez. : As for the infielders, the team could survive an injury to anyone from second : base around to third without suffering a season-crushing blow. That is, of : course, unless Blake plans to do at 36 something like what he did at 35, when : he posted a .280/.363/.468 line. That's a guy you can't lose. Problem is, of : course, due to regression and aging, the Dodgers probably already have lost : him. It's difficult to say what sort of impact an injury to Loney would have, : as he's quite the wildcard heading into 2010, but we'll talk about him later. : 如果外野手，也就是我們隊上最好的打者，有人受傷的話， : 那球隊可能就會比較麻煩一點了 : 好消息是 kemp 跟 Ethier 可以信賴而且也還有青春的肉體 : 壞消息就是… Ramirez..... : 內野的話，二壘到三壘只要不是整季爆銷都不會有問題如果 Blake 打算在他 36 歲還打算像他去年一樣兇(打擊三圍 .280/.363/.468) 那麼他就是你不能失去的打線一員問題在於他下一季應該會退化和而且年齡更老，道奇可能已經失去他了 Loney 如果受傷的話，很難說他會造成的哪種程度影響 : 或許我們等等可以再聊聊有關他的事... : The bullpen is a brighter picture. I think about four of these guys—Jonathan : Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso and Hong Chih Kuo—would be in line : for relief ace work with other teams. (Psst...Mr. Colletti...are you paying : attention?) And there's some depth to the 'pen, too. Any number of losers in : the race for the fifth rotation spot can help out of the bullpen, including : McDonald and Scott Elbert. Bottom line is that the bullpen is about the only : place the team can reach into its reserves and not suffer much on the field. : Except second base, I suppose, but the Dodgers don't figure to get much from : there anyway. : 牛棚的話… Broxton, Sherrill, Troncoso, 小小郭組成的牛棚是ace等級的 : (Psst.... Colletti... 你還有在聽嗎？) : 還有其他可用之兵可以用，上面那些沒當上第五號先發的也是 : 牛棚大概是所有位置裡最不怕有傷兵的吧 : 除了二壘之外，我想道奇應該不太需要擔心太多 : 3. Just who are Loney and Billingsley? : 剛說 Loney 跟 Billingsley 等等再聊，那就現在聊吧，介紹一下他們吧 : Both born in 1984 and debuting in 2006, they were supposed to be the first : wave of the monsoon of youngsters who figured to put the Dodgers in a : dominant position for several years. They've certainly shown significant : signs of life. All Loney did in his 111 plate appearances in 2006 was post a : .284/.342/.559 line. Not bad for a 22-year old with a reputation as an : excellent defender. As for Billingsley, he recorded a shiny 3.80 ERA in 16 : starts. This being 2010, of course, we know to look further—he struck out : just one more batter than he walked, FIPing his way to a 4.88 freshman : campaign. Not awe-inspiring, but he is the younger of the two. 這兩個都是 1984 年出生的，2006 年上大聯盟 : 他們是第一波注入道奇的新血，也讓道奇在後面幾年能有夠縱橫球賽的實力 : 他們應該要算是這一代的代表球員了吧 : Loney 在他的 2006 年 111 次打席中，交出了 .284/.342/.559 的打擊三圍以一個 22 歲的屬於很棒的防守型新秀來說算是很威了 : 而 Billingsley 在 16 次先發中也有亮眼的 3.80 ERA [後面這段也不大會翻冏] : Since his debut, Loney has moved the wrong direction in some ways. His SLG : dropped from .538 in 375 plate appearances in 2007 to .434 (651 PA) in 2008, : and cratered at a ghastly .399 in another 651 plate appearances in 2009. He : was 25 last year. This is not the trend you want to see from a first baseman, : especially one whose swing just looks so good. But there is, yet, cause for : hope. He rebounded from a 0.53 BB/K ratio in 2008 to a much-more encouraging : 1.03 figure in 2009. And he shows decent enough plate control: His percentage : of swings outside the zone has decreased each season, while his contact rate : reached a career high 88.5 percent last season. If the power comes—and he'll : turn just 26 in May—he might still be a monster. Through his age-25 season, : his No. 1 Baseball Reference comparable is Jeff Bagwell. Don't give up, yet, : Dodgers fans. : Loney 從他初登板後，他有些數據似乎不是這麼的好 : 他的長打率從 07 年的 .538 到了 08 年掉到 .434，09 年剩下 .399 : 這不是大家樂見的一壘手該有的樣子，特別是他的揮棒看起來沒啥問題 : 不過他的選球眼有長出來，而且跑壘的選擇看起來也比較好了 : 他揮擊壞球的次數也有逐年下降，contact rate 也到他的生涯新高 88.5 一旦Power長出來--他五月才會滿26歲--他仍然會是個怪物去年25歲的他，BR認為他長的最好時會是下一個Jeff Bagwell : As for Billingsley, I admit to being among the most bullish on his future. : While a couple of notable playoff debacles and odd injuries have drawn some : extremely negative press, I'm not sure most realize what the Dodgers have in : the solidly built right hander. After that promising-but-illusory 2006, he : proceeded to fool hitters instead of shiny-number worshipers. Although, : "fool" might be the wrong word; Billingsley's tool of the trade is power. In : the three seasons since his debut, he's never struck out fewer than 8.21 per : nine or posted a WHIP greater than 1.32. In 2008, he threw more than 200 : innings and logged a 3.62 xFIP as a 23-year old. Last season, he made the : All-Star team following a sparkling first half in which he allowed a : .227/.316/.339 line. That's pretty much turning every hitter into David : Eckstein. The injury problems that derailed his season, combined with his : reputation for postseason failure, have made many forget that he was on the : fast track to acedom only a few short months ago. I expect him to be : excellent this year and going forward. : 至於 Billinigsley，我承認那些有關他未來大放異彩的耳語應該都會是真的 : 不過在季後賽爆了兩場，然後又受傷… : 我也不太確定道奇隊是不是還是這麼堅信這位右投手 : 不過，至少他現在能夠成功的迷惑打者，而不是只依賴那些數據 : 或許用"迷惑"這兩個字可能不是那麼的正確 : Billingsley 最大的武器是他的力量 : 從他登板的三個球季來，他的三振率沒有低於 8.21，WHIP 也沒有超過 1.32 : 2008 年，他投了超過 200 局， xFIP 只有 3.62 : 去年，他在明星賽先發，打者的打擊三圍才 .227/.316/.339 : 打者遇到他都變得像 David Eckstein 一樣了 (Eckstein: 躺著也中槍) 傷痛問題使他的球季不很順利，加上季後賽爆炸讓很多人忘記他才剛在幾個月之前開始步上成為ace的軌道 [不知怎翻較佳] : 我很期待他今年可以變得更強 : On one hand, he could rake. Desperate to prove he's still a top-line hitter, : he might come out and do something preposterous for a 38-year-old. Make no : mistake, .325/.430/.580 is in play. While this outcome isn't likely by any : means, it's possible, and not even in the anything-is-possible-with-Manny : way. If he does something like that over 600 plate appearances, he'll be one : of the most interesting free agent cases in recent years. And the Dodgers : just might do a whole lot of winning along the way. 即使很難再證明他是頂級打者，對38歲的Manny 來說他還是很可能交出 .325/.430/.580 這種以38歲的球員來看很離譜的成績雖然這預估可能不切實際，不過對"什麼事都可能發生"的Manny來說是有可能的如果他真的繳出這種成績，他將會是這幾年自由市場裡最有趣的球員 : You might not have heard of many members of the horde of pitchers competing : for the last spot in the rotation. And, like me, you might be skeptical of : Jason Repko's existence. Kershaw and Kemp do not enjoy such anonymity. The : pair—Kemp will be 25 this season and Kershaw just 23—has everything you : might want in a young duo. Kemp is on the cusp of MVP candidacy already, : coming off a .297/.352/.490 (plus good defense) effort in 2009. And all : Kershaw has done is strike out 285 batters in his first 278.2 innings. : 你可能不知道，其實有很多人在爭最後一個先發輪值的位置 : 你可能也和我一樣，懷疑 Jason Repko 是不是有他有必要性 : Kershaw 跟 Kemp 就不太會有沒沒無名的困擾 Kemp 去年的打擊成績和防守已經是個 MVP 等級的球員了， Kershaw 則是在他生涯前 278.2 局裡三振了 285 個打者 : Kershaw, with just two seasons under his belt and susceptible to pitchers' : generally more unpredictable career trajectories, has the more significant : warts. He still walks too many batters—4.79 per nine innings last year. : Unsurprisingly, he has difficulty going deep into games, averaging just under : 5.2 innings per start in 2009. But man, oh man, his stuff. Despite the ugly : walk figure,he carried just a 3.90 xFIP last season. And while his innings : did rise from 107.2 to 171 over the last two seasons, he has been used : judiciously. Often to the point of frustration (both of the fans and Kershaw : himself), he's been routinely pulled during good games once his pitch count : exceeded 100. While this isn't a perfect indicator of durability, the point : is the Dodgers have done what they can. There's only so much you can hold : back a player as talented as Kershaw. Three of his pitches are worth at least : 1.36 runs per 100 pitches, and he uses his one below-average pitch—a nascent : changeup—just 4.6 percent of the time. He's special. : Kershaw 已經有兩個球季的登板經驗，而且還有著不可限量的生涯 : 不過他還是保送了太多的打者 (平均每九局保送 4.79 個) : 不令人意外的，他平均每場球只能投不到 5.2 局 : 但是儘管這樣，他還是繳出 3.90 xFIP 的成績，投球局數在這兩個球季中也從 107.2 漂亮的拉到了 171 局一但投球數到達100，即使他投的很不錯也會被換掉，此舉總是讓他和球迷感到困惑但這也是道奇過去這兩季保護他的方法，畢竟有太多能讓像 Kershaw 這種有天份的投手掛掉的因素他有三種相當棒的球種，而他選擇丟還在練的變速球 [這句不太會翻] : So how do these two stack up with other young tandems? Zack Greinke and Billy : Butler certainly deserve a mention. Yovani Gallardo and Prince Fielder figure : in, though Fielder gets expensive soon. Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson might : be better, but they're costlier. Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum are : certainly contenders. Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki are very good. And : who knows what Jason Heyward might do paired up with Jair Jurrjens or Tommy : Hanson. Evaluating all these duos against each other sounds like excellent : fodder for a future article, but for now I'll go with this: if Kemp and : Kershaw aren't the best young hitter/pitcher combination in the majors, : they're very, very close. : 所以除了這些之外，還有誰呢？ : 我想會是 Zack Greinke 跟 Billy Butler 吧 : Yovani Gallardo 跟 Prince Fielder 也可以考慮，不過 Fielder 很快的會成為大物 : Hanley Ramirez 跟 Josh Johnson 可能會比較好，不過他們現在價位太高了 : Pablo Sandoval 跟 Tim Lincecum 也很有競爭力 : Ubaldo Jimenez 和 Troy Tulowitzki 也很棒 : Jason Heyward 和 Jair Jurrjens 或是 Tommy Hanson 可能可以搭配的很好比較這些新星看起來會是之後文章很棒的題材但現在我必須要說：如果Kemp and Kershaw不是第一，那絕對是非常、非常接近第一 : But this Dodger lifer has hope, as should all. Odds are strong that September : will, at the very least, matter. And the potential is there for meaningful : baseball to continue into November. This club has it all. Top-shelf ceiling. : Ugly downside. A scandalous side story which shows no signs of quieting. The : Dodgers are, truly, Hollywood's team. The only guarantee? The most gorgeous : sunsets in baseball. 但是道奇的所有球員將充滿希望。打進9月(季後賽)的機會很高，而且也有機會打到11月(世界大賽)。這支球隊要什麼有什麼。有很有天份的球員，也有部分要補的洞，也有著會被一直提及的(離婚)醜聞。道奇就像是好萊鄔隊伍。唯一的保證？棒球場最漂亮的日落風景。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 110.33.57.12