[外電] B.James認為賽伯計量學高估了滾地球投手
http://tinyurl.com/brdm85h
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BJ的原文要錢 所以我只能看/貼這邊關於James所寫的文章的摘要 以下大略翻翻
Rob Neyer expounded on a Bill James piece (here, behind a paywall) at SB
Nation in which James says that proponents of Sabermetrics have “horribly
overstated” the case for ground ball pitchers. He cites a handful of elite
pitchers — Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, among
others — and points out that they weren’t very good in the ground ball
department. He also cites a handful of ground ball pitchers — namely
Chien-Ming Wang and Brandon Webb — who have had serious issues with injuries.
Bill James在SB發了篇關於賽伯計量學的文章，並指出
「Sabermetrics過分高估了滾地球型投手」
像是Seaver、Gibson、RJ、Verlander，這些傑出的投手
對於讓打者擊出（很多的）滾地球並非很在行
然後呢，滾地球型投手，
像是王建民、Webb，卻都有很嚴重的傷病困擾
以下是BJ說的
What I have never understood about ground ball pitchers, and do not
understand now, is why they always get hurt. Show me an extreme ground ball
pitcher, a guy with a terrific ground ball rate, and I’ll show you a guy who
is going to be good for two years and then get hurt.
我從來都不了解為何滾地球型投手這麼容易受傷，現在還是如此
假如你指出某個滾地球型投手，他的滾飛比很高
看下去吧，這位投手沒意外大概會有兩年的好光景，接著就受傷
They’re great for two years, and then they blow up. Always.
總是如此，威兩年，然後就不見蹤影
BJ的段落到此為止
The one exception to James’ analysis is, of course, Derek Lowe, who made at
least 32 starts in each season from 2002-11.
撰文者補上了個例外，就是Derek Lowe，他從02~11年間每年都先發至少32場
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不過撰文者最後也說（連結可以看內文）
他並不認為我們已具備光就數據便能做出相當完備乃至於無懈可擊的結論
頂多只能借助某些網站（像是Fangraphs）來幫助我們釐清一些現象
或許受傷跟投球型態確實有些關係
然而所謂的on the ground跟not on the ground界定上其實頗為廣泛...
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個人認為這篇舉的是兩個極端，滾地球型跟三振型投手
型態差異蠻大的
換言之中間的部份有點模糊
到底有沒有這麼簡單就可以連接在一起，我予以保留
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◆ From: 119.77.194.231
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看看就好 要不是因為他是Bill James現在應該被噓爆
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※ 編輯: Sparksfly 來自: 119.77.194.231 (03/23 10:31)
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