[情報] Theo Epstein對紅襪過度偏重數據感到失望

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者zxc906383 (無無)時間7小時前 (2026/06/01 21:53)推噓3(3推 0噓 6→)

留言9則, 6人參與討論串1/1

https://reurl.cc/V2OvzZ In 2023, the Sox’ last year under Bloom, their media guide listed 14 pro scouts . This year, they listed one domestic pro scout and six “acquisition specialist s, professional scouting.” Not all have a traditional scouting background. Furt her, travel for those employees has been cut significantly, meaning far fewer in -person looks and more video-based work. 2023年是Bloom掌權下紅襪的最後一年，當時球隊媒體指南列出了14名職業球探，而今年則只列出1名國內職業球探，以及6名「職業球探收購專員（acquisition specialists, profe ssional scouting）」其中並非所有人都具有傳統球探背景，此外這些員工的差旅預算也被大幅削減，意味著親自到場觀察球員的機會大幅減少，更多工作改以影片分析為主 In an era in which virtually every club is trying to find a balance between mode rn analytics and traditional scouting, the Sox’ approach exists in contrast to some industry leaders. The Dodgers and Yankees, for example, are seen as having maintained pro scouting groups with bodies and influence. So have the Rays, long an analytics darling. Other clubs, such as the Brewers and Guardians, have gutt ed their pro scouting ranks. 在幾乎所有球隊都試圖於現代數據分析與傳統球探之間取得平衡的時代，紅襪的做法與部分業界領導者形成鮮明對比，例如道奇與洋基被認為仍維持著具有人數規模與影響力的職業球探團隊長期被視為數據分析典範的光芒也是如此，另一方面像酒鬼與守護者等球隊，則大幅裁減了職業球探部門的人力 Adjacently, the Dodgers, for example, have a tendency to collect former big leag uers as special adviser-types, whose opinions they seek. Their front office seco nd-in-command is general manager Brandon Gomes, a former major league pitcher fr om Fall River. 此外以道奇為例，他們傾向延攬前大聯盟球員擔任特別顧問等角色，並積極徵詢這些人的意見，球隊管理層的二號人物是總經理Brandon Gomes，他曾是一名來自Fall River的前大聯盟投手 The only fellow former player Breslow has hired for any role is pitching coach A ndrew Bailey. They grew close as teammates, including with the Sox. Breslow聘用的唯一一位前球員出身人士，是投手教練Andrew Bailey，兩人曾是隊友，包括效力紅襪期間，因此建立了深厚交情 “People talk externally about not a ton of diversity within the operation in te rms of experience,” a rival executive said. 「外界經常談論這個團隊在經驗背景方面缺乏足夠多元性」一位其他球隊的高層表示 Bailey is the only remaining member of the coaching staff who played in the majo rs; a handful of others played only in the lower minors or college. Nobody in Br eslow’s front office, besides him, is a former big leaguer. Bailey是目前教練團中唯一擁有大聯盟球員經歷的人；其他幾位成員僅在小聯盟低階層級或大學時期打過球，除了Breslow本人之外，他的團隊裡沒有任何一位前大聯盟球員 Do they need more of that perspective? 他們是否需要更多這類來自球員背景的觀點？ “That perspective does help. It’s very helpful,” Breslow said. “There’s cre dibility that comes with having worn a uniform, having lived the same experience s. I will also say, like, I have.” 「那種觀點確實有幫助，而且非常有幫助」Breslow說「穿過球衣、經歷過相同歷程的人，自然會帶來更多公信力，不過我也要說，我自己其實也有那樣的經歷」 When Breslow was hired, he looked like the best of both worlds: an Ivy Leaguer w ho played — for a long time. But according to people who know him, in this role he has leaned way more into his Yale self than his player self. 當Breslow被聘用時，他看起來像是結合兩種優勢的人才：既是常春藤名校畢業生，又擁有長期職業球員經歷，然而根據熟悉他的人士表示，在這個職位上，他更傾向展現自己「耶魯畢業生」的一面，而非「職業球員」的一面 “I probably can do a better job of that,” Breslow said of breaking out his big -league side. “Because the reality is I feel more comfortable talking to player s and I feel more comfortable in the clubhouse than in the front office, because I did it for longer.” 談到是否應該更多展現自己身為前大聯盟球員的一面時，Breslow表示：「我大概確實可以做得更好一些，因為事實上，我跟球員交流時比待在管理層更自在，在休息室裡也比在辦公室裡更自在，畢竟我在那個環境待了更長的時間」 Multiple officials noted that Breslow, universally regarded as extremely intelli gent, might benefit from having an interpreter of sorts, someone with a more tra ditional baseball “fabric” and personable demeanor who can convey the front of fice’s message. 多位業界人士指出，雖然大家普遍認為Breslow極為聰明，但他或許需要某種「翻譯者」角色——一位更具傳統棒球背景且擅長與人互動的人，來協助向球員與教練團傳達管理層的理念與訊息 “People probably wrongly assume, ‘Hey, he played, he doesn’t need that,’ ” one said. 「人們可能錯誤地認為，『嘿，他打過球，所以不需要這種人』」其中一位人士表示 Within the organization, some believe interim manager Chad Tracy could fill that role, if he gets the permanent job. He has credibility as a baseball lifer — f rom a baseball family — who understands the sport’s modernities. And he is com fortable pushing back, a source said, if he thinks something the front office wa nts just won’t work. 在球團內部，有些人認為如果代理總教練Chad Tracy獲得正式任命，他可以扮演這樣的角色，身為出身棒球世家的「棒球圈終身人士」，他具備足夠的公信力，同時也理解現代棒球的發展，消息人士表示，若他認為管理層提出的某些想法行不通，他也願意直接提出反對意見 “You can trick yourself into thinking it’s however complicated, but at the end of the day, it’s still human beings,” a National League exec said. 「你可能會讓自己以為這件事有多麼複雜，但說到底，面對的終究還是人」一位國聯球隊高層表示 Another said: “The risk of rapid organizational change is that people in the cl ubhouse aren’t capable of following. With that gap or that gulf, [a leader can] choose all the right things, but those right things can still get you the wrong result if you’re not tethered as a group.” 另一位人士表示：「組織快速變革最大的風險在於，休息室裡的人未必跟得上，當雙方之間存在這種落差或鴻溝時，即使領導者做出所有正確決定，如果整個團隊沒有維持一致連結，那些正確決策最終仍可能導致錯誤結果」 Over the past month, Breslow has made a concerted effort to have more conversati ons with players and clubhouse-level personnel, he said. Part of the point is te lling them he cares about them and winning and he is there to support them. Breslow表示，在過去一個月裡，他刻意增加了與球員及休息室工作人員的交流，這麼做的一部分目的，是讓他們知道自己在乎球員、在乎勝利，也會全力支持他們 “Making that clear to players and staff goes a lot further probably than I init ially gave it credit for,” Breslow said. “I think I just assumed that that was the case. But actually verbalizing it and sitting down with players and having the opportunity to build those meaningful relationships — I think that’s somet hing that I’ve taken to heart. Breslow表示：「把這些事情明確告訴球員和工作人員，其效果可能遠比我原本認為的還要大，我想我之前只是理所當然地認為大家都知道這一點，但實際上，親口說出來、坐下來與球員交談，並建立有意義的人際關係——這件事我已經真正放在心上了」 “My hope is that players walk away thinking: ‘That guy is really one of us. He ’s got a different job, and sometimes that job is really [expletive]. But he’s one of us, and he gets it.’” 「我希望球員們最後會覺得：『那傢伙其實就是我們的一分子，他只是做著不同的工作，而且有時候那份工作真的很討厭，但他是自己人，而且他懂我們。』」 The analytics-first approach impacts all tentacles of a vast baseball operation. 這種「數據分析優先」的思維模式，影響著整個龐大棒球營運體系的各個層面。 For example, the models generally don’t recommend signing hitters in their 30s who play one or zero positions to large contracts. After Breslow opened the offs eason by saying the Red Sox needed to add power to the lineup (a de facto replac ement for the traded Rafael Devers), they had a video meeting with Kyle Schwarbe r, did not converse further, and did not make an offer. 例如數據模型通常不建議球隊向30多歲、且只能守一個位置甚至幾乎沒有守備價值的打者提供大型合約，Breslow在休賽季一開始便表示紅襪需要增加打線長打火力（實際上是在尋找被交易的Rafael Devers替代者），球團隨後與Kyle Schwarber進行了一次視訊會議，但之後沒有進一步接觸，也沒有提出合約 The next domino to fall was Pete Alonso, who signed with the Orioles for five ye ars and $155 million. The Sox’ offer was well short, sources said at the time. 接著的下一張骨牌是Pete Alonso，他最終與金鶯簽下5年1億5,500萬美元合約，消息人士當時指出，紅襪的報價與此相比仍有相當大的差距 Alex Bregman waited until mid-January to see if the Sox would meet his asking pr ice. At one point late in the process, he offered to return for slightly less th an he wound up receiving from the Cubs ($175 million over five years). When the Sox didn’t acquiesce on a no-trade clause and sought salary deferrals, he heade d to Chicago. Alex Bregman一直等到1月中旬，希望看看紅襪是否願意滿足他的要價，在談判後期的某個時間點，他甚至願意以略低於最終從小熊獲得的合約條件（5年1億7,500萬美元）回鍋效力，然而當紅襪不願接受不可交易條款，並要求部分薪資延後支付時，他最終選擇前往芝加哥 The Red Sox doubled down on pitching, signing Suarez to a $130 million contract over five years, showing a willingness to spend, and traded for Durbin to play t hird — setting up an imbalanced roster that has struggled to score. The Devers- shaped hole remains. 紅襪則把資源進一步投注在投手戰力上，以5年1億3,000萬美元簽下Suarez，展現願意花錢補強的態度，並透過交易得到Durbin鎮守三壘，然而這也造成球隊陣容失衡，進攻火力始終難以穩定發揮而那個由Devers離隊所留下的巨大空缺，至今仍然存在 “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on ev ery free agent,” Dodgers boss Andrew Friedman said 10 years and three World Ser ies championships ago. 「如果你對每一位自由球員都完全依照理性計算行事，那麼你在每一位自由球員的爭奪戰中都只會拿到第三名」道奇隊掌門人Andrew Friedman在10年前、以及率隊奪得三座世界大賽冠軍之前曾如此表示 Theo Epstein has been disappointed by the Sox’ intense analytical direction und er Breslow, multiple league sources said. A minority owner and adviser who led t he franchise to two World Series titles as GM, Epstein has long been a mentor to Breslow, hiring him to the Cubs front office and helping him get the Sox job. 多位聯盟消息人士表示，Theo Epstein對於Breslow主導下紅襪過度偏重數據分析的方向感到失望，身為球隊的小股東與顧問，Epstein過去擔任GM時曾帶領紅襪贏得兩座世界大賽冠軍，長期以來也是Breslow的重要導師，他曾聘請Breslow加入小熊隊管理層，並協助他取得紅襪這份工作 “Theo was an all-forms-of-information guy,” said one evaluator who was with th e Sox during the Epstein era. “He didn’t just live on Carmine [their internal database at the time]. He listened to people.” 「Theo是一個重視各種資訊來源的人」一位曾在Epstein時代效力紅襪的球探人員表示「他不會只依賴 Carmine（當時球隊的內部資料庫），他也會傾聽人的意見」 Breslow said his communication with Epstein “ebbs and flows,” but he remains a sounding board and valuable resource. Breslow表示，他與Epstein之間的聯繫「時多時少、有起有伏」，但Epstein至今仍是他可以交換想法的重要對象，也是非常寶貴的資源 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.162.38.118 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1780322037.A.812.html