[外電] 歷史站在馬刺那邊
http://ppt.cc/OmiV
原文很長我很懶，節錄重點
基本上算是客觀歷史數據文而已，先別太激動 @@
The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have reached the NBA Finals,
setting up a rematch of last year's classic seven-game battle.
With four days between the conclusion of the conference finals and
Game 1, now comes the real fun: predicting the outcome.
還有四天才開打，太無聊，只好來做預測嚕。
Predicting the NBA Finals is somewhat different from other playoff
series. First, there's more playoff data available -- three full
rounds against a variety of opponents, giving a better idea of
who's playing better right now. Second, because the teams have
played each other just twice during the regular season, there's
less head-to-head data to determine whether the matchup is good or
bad.
預測冠軍賽跟其他季後賽對手不同，原因有二：
1. 季後賽資料多很多
2. 兩隊每年也就打兩次
So what has really mattered when picking the winner of past
Finals? And what does that say about this year's series? Let's
take a look.
所以要如何著手呢？讓我們看下去。
Matters: Regular-Season Records
重要：季賽戰績
Ordinarily, statistical projections will start with point
differential. But when it comes to the NBA Finals, during the past
three decades, records have matched up better with results than
differential.
過去30年來，季賽戰績成為一個不錯的指標。
When the two teams were separated by three games or fewer during
the regular season, teams with home-court advantage have actually
been more likely to get upset than win the series, going 4-5. But
when they won at least six more games during the regular season,
they've gone a dominant 16-2, with 1995 (Houston over Orlando) and
2006 (Miami over Dallas) the lone exceptions. That's bad news for
the Heat, who finished eight games behind the Spurs in the
standings.
當兩隊戰績差在三場以下，基本上結果說明勢均力敵。
戰績優的一方甚至以4:5落後。
然而如果戰績差別在6場以上，那就呈現一面倒了。
戰績優的一方以16:2遙遙領先，唯二是95年的火箭和06年的熱火。
而今年熱火戰績就差馬刺達8場。
Doesn't Matter: Head-to-Head Results
不重要的：對戰成績。
Against conference foes, there is predictive value to the
regular-season series between the two teams -- especially in the
opening round. That doesn't carry over to the NBA Finals. Two
games simply aren't enough to tell us much about how the teams
match up.
在前三輪，對戰成績可以做一個不錯的預測根據。
但是冠軍賽季賽只打兩場，對戰成績無法說明太多。
Half of the past 30 Finalists have split the season series, as
Miami and San Antonio did this season. Though nine of the other 15
Finals were won by the team that swept the season series, that
doesn't provide much new information because most of those teams
had home-court advantage. The lower-seeded team has gone on to win
the Finals just once out of the four times it swept in the
regular season.
過去30年，有15次對戰是1:1。如同今年的火刺。
季賽2:0者在剩下的15次裡面也只有9:6，而且主因是大部份2:0的球隊
都有主場優勢。四次沒有主場優勢但是季賽橫掃對方的球隊裡只有一隻
拿到冠軍。所以對戰成績能給我們知道的有限。
Matters: Playoff Performance
重要：季後賽的表現。
It pays to be hot going into the Finals. When the lower-seeded
team had a better point differential during the first three rounds
of the playoffs, adjusted for schedule, the series is nearly a
toss-up -- the favorites win 57.1 percent of the time (8-6). When
the team with home court also has performed better during the
playoffs, however, they're a dominant 14-2 (87.5 percent), with
1998 (Chicago over Utah, when the two teams were nearly even
leading up to the Finals) and 2006 (Miami over Dallas, again) the
exceptions.
冠軍賽戰績較差的一方，在之前季後賽卻打得比較好時（以調整分差來看），
即使是客場出發也能打出5-5波，14次裡面反而能贏8次。
反之，如果已經是戰績較優，季後賽前三輪又打得更優，
那他們在冠軍賽基本上是佔盡優勢（14-2)。
唯一的例外是98年的公牛和06年的熱火（again!）
The Heat (plus-7.0) and Spurs (plus-8.0) had similar average
margins en route to the Finals. However, San Antonio played a much
more difficult schedule in the competitive West. So San Antonio's
adjusted differential of plus-11.6 points per game is much better
than Miami's plus-8.1 mark.
熱火和馬刺在季後賽前三輪的調整分差（算進對手強度）
馬刺以+11.6大勝熱火的+8.1，
加上馬刺又有主場優勢，熱火堪慮。
Doesn't Matter: Games Played
不重要：季後賽打了幾場。
Because the Spurs went a full seven games in the first round, the
Heat have played three fewer games in the postseason. Turns out
that extra rest is not a factor in why playoff performance to date
matters in the Finals. In fact, favorites who have played more
games (like San Antonio) have actually tended to perform slightly
better than expected, possibly because it means they've faced more
challenging opposition.
季後賽打得越多的球隊雖然休息較少，但是其實在冠軍賽表現還些微
優於休息多的球隊，但是從歷史來看基本上是沒影響。
Matters: Defensive Rating
重要：防守。
Yes, defense wins championships -- as long as it is paired with a
good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better
defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 out of the
past 30 Finals, a figure that substantially understates its
importance. See, offense-first teams are more likely to have home
court in the Finals. When the better defensive team also has
home-court advantage, it has won 86.7 percent of the time (13-2).
And better defensive teams have frequently pulled upsets without
home court, going 6-9 (40 percent) in those series.
冠軍賽兩隊中，季賽防守就比較優的那隊過去30年贏了19次。
如果把主客場算進去，有主場優勢季賽防守又優的球隊在15次裡面
贏了13次。反之，季賽優卻從客場出發的贏球翻盤率也不小15次能翻6次盤。
Again, the importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the
better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points
allowed per 100 possessions; Miami finished 11th. The Heat would
be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside
the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st).
馬刺再一次站在歷史這一邊，防守優於熱火，又有主場優勢。
更別提熱火今年防守下滑，全聯盟只有第11。
事實上如果熱火贏冠軍，將會是從2001來第一個不靠防守贏球的冠軍。
Unlike those Lakers, Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on
its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs. The Heat
reached the Finals largely on the strength of their offense, which
dominated the league's No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Charlotte)
defenses. Miami scored 12.9 more points per 100 possessions during
the East playoffs than its opponents allowed during the regular
season (weighted by games played), but allowed them to score 2.8
more points per 100 possessions than usual.
熱火季後賽靠的是可怕的進攻和對手貧弱的進攻，而非加強防守。
事實上在防守端熱火季後賽的平均失分/100次球權還略遜季賽。
By contrast, San Antonio's playoff run has been incredibly
balanced. In fact, the Spurs have been slightly better on defense
(plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponent
averages) than offense (plus-6.9). That kind of balance is rare in
the postseason. Just five teams since the ABA-NBA merger have
been at least six points better than average per 100 possessions
at both ends of the court.
馬刺季後賽則是攻守相當平衡，進攻和防守端都穩定的領先對手。
Putting it Together
總而言之：
A regression that combines regular-season win differential and
playoff performance leading up to the Finals -- but not defensive
rating, which isn't statistically significant as part of a
regression -- correctly retrodicts 27 of the past 30 Finals
outcomes. Based on that, San Antonio has an 88 percent chance of
winning the Finals.
從歷史角度來看，馬刺有88%的機率奪冠。
The good news for Miami? As you might guess from going through the
indicators, the biggest upset in modern Finals history was pulled
off by another Heat team with Dwyane Wade.
熱火的好消息是？
最近一次打預測專家臉的就是2006的Wade。
BIGGEST PROJECTED FINALS MISMATCHES (1984-2013)
近30年來冠軍賽差別最大的預測值：
Year Home Away WinDiff HomePO AwayPO Probability Outcome
年份 主場 客場 勝差 奪冠率 結果
1986 BOS HOU 16 14.5 10.7 .997 4-2
1999 SAS NYK 16* 11.4 9.2 .996 4-1
1996 CHI SEA 8 17.6 6.7 .989 4-2
1987 LAL BOS 6 14.7 3.2 .979 4-2
2000 LAL IND 11 8.4 3.3 .978 4-2
2001 LAL PHI 0 20.8 3.8 .959 4-1
2006 DAL MIA 8 12.5 7.5 .933 2-4
2003 SAS NJN 11 9.1 9.0 .894 4-2
2002 LAL NJN 6 8.2 2.7 .866 4-0
2007 SAS CLE 8 7.0 5.7 .810 4-0
*Prorated to an 82-game season
（注：以這個公式來算馬刺今年奪冠率是88%）
Still, nine of the 10 teams most heavily favored entering the
Finals won the series, and none of the underdogs even forced a
Game 7. The 2006 Finals are also the exception to the rule when it
comes to favorites who had a better point differential in both
the regular season and the conference playoffs. Those teams are
11-1 in the past three decades.
歷史觀之，10隊裡面只有一次被翻盤。
Despite this overwhelming evidence, the Heat are only slight
underdogs to win the series in Las Vegas. The most common line
suggests the Spurs have a 57 percent chance to win. In part, the
discrepancy can be traced to the popularity of Miami, as two-time
defending champion. But it also surely reflects a belief we still
haven't seen the best of the Heat, given Miami's tendency to play
better when behind in series and in fourth quarters.
不過即使如此，拉斯維加斯的賭盤中熱火只算小輸，
賭盤開出馬刺57%贏。
我想這跟熱火是b2b衛冕軍所以有很多信徒有關。
當然，也有很多人相信熱火還沒發揮完全的實力，
畢竟看起來當他們落後或是打第四節的時候，他們的實力最常展現。
That might prove the case, because the Heat haven't yet been
seriously challenged in the playoffs. But they'll have to raise
their level considerably to match the way San Antonio is playing.
Six times this postseason, the Spurs have beaten opponents by 20
points more than an average team in the same situation. Miami has
done that only once -- the closeout Game 6 against Indiana.
或許真是如此，畢竟熱火在季後賽算是過得挺爽。
但是他們要贏馬刺，就肯定要在提升一個檔次才行。
馬刺在今年季後賽打爆對手6次（20分 up）
熱火只有打爆一次。
If the Heat are to win their third consecutive championship, it
will mean defying three decades' worth of Finals trends.
如果熱火今年要奪冠，他們就要逆天而行了。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
心得：熱火這兩年季後賽好像打破不少紀錄，希望維持下去 @@
去年有印象的是季賽籃板最後一名卻拿冠軍，之前最爛好像是2x(x<5)。
今年目前有的是季賽0-4，季後賽卻勝出。是第一支如此球隊。
冠軍賽再來逆天一次！
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 72.34.128.250
※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MiamiHeat/M.1401741229.A.3A8.html
※ 編輯: kart (72.34.128.250), 06/03/2014 04:40:56
推
06/03 06:17, , 1F
06/03 06:17, 1F
推
06/03 07:34, , 2F
06/03 07:34, 2F
推
06/03 08:23, , 3F
06/03 08:23, 3F
推
06/03 08:28, , 4F
06/03 08:28, 4F
→
06/03 08:29, , 5F
06/03 08:29, 5F
→
06/03 08:29, , 6F
06/03 08:29, 6F
推
06/03 09:02, , 7F
06/03 09:02, 7F
推
06/03 09:04, , 8F
06/03 09:04, 8F
→
06/03 09:04, , 9F
06/03 09:04, 9F
→
06/03 09:05, , 10F
06/03 09:05, 10F
→
06/03 09:07, , 11F
06/03 09:07, 11F
推
06/03 09:07, , 12F
06/03 09:07, 12F
→
06/03 09:07, , 13F
06/03 09:07, 13F
→
06/03 09:07, , 14F
06/03 09:07, 14F
推
06/03 09:28, , 15F
06/03 09:28, 15F
推
06/03 09:36, , 16F
06/03 09:36, 16F
推
06/03 10:10, , 17F
06/03 10:10, 17F
→
06/03 10:13, , 18F
06/03 10:13, 18F
推
06/03 10:15, , 19F
06/03 10:15, 19F
→
06/03 10:25, , 20F
06/03 10:25, 20F
推
06/03 11:17, , 21F
06/03 11:17, 21F
→
06/03 13:22, , 22F
06/03 13:22, 22F
→
06/03 13:22, , 23F
06/03 13:22, 23F
→
06/03 13:22, , 24F
06/03 13:22, 24F
→
06/03 13:23, , 25F
06/03 13:23, 25F
→
06/03 13:23, , 26F
06/03 13:23, 26F
→
06/03 13:24, , 27F
06/03 13:24, 27F
→
06/03 13:24, , 28F
06/03 13:24, 28F
→
06/03 13:25, , 29F
06/03 13:25, 29F
→
06/03 13:25, , 30F
06/03 13:25, 30F
→
06/03 13:26, , 31F
06/03 13:26, 31F
→
06/03 13:26, , 32F
06/03 13:26, 32F
→
06/03 13:27, , 33F
06/03 13:27, 33F
推
06/03 13:31, , 34F
06/03 13:31, 34F
→
06/03 13:37, , 35F
06/03 13:37, 35F
→
06/03 13:39, , 36F
06/03 13:39, 36F
推
06/03 13:47, , 37F
06/03 13:47, 37F
推
06/03 13:58, , 38F
06/03 13:58, 38F
推
06/03 14:07, , 39F
06/03 14:07, 39F
推
06/03 14:08, , 40F
06/03 14:08, 40F
推
06/03 14:09, , 41F
06/03 14:09, 41F
→
06/03 14:11, , 42F
06/03 14:11, 42F
推
06/03 14:12, , 43F
06/03 14:12, 43F
→
06/03 14:12, , 44F
06/03 14:12, 44F
※ 編輯: kart (66.140.189.134), 06/03/2014 15:17:24
推
06/03 15:23, , 45F
06/03 15:23, 45F
→
06/03 15:23, , 46F
06/03 15:23, 46F
推
06/03 15:33, , 47F
06/03 15:33, 47F
→
06/03 15:33, , 48F
06/03 15:33, 48F
推
06/03 15:57, , 49F
06/03 15:57, 49F
噓
06/03 16:39, , 50F
06/03 16:39, 50F
推
06/03 21:18, , 51F
06/03 21:18, 51F
推
06/04 17:22, , 52F
06/04 17:22, 52F
討論串 (同標題文章)
MiamiHeat 近期熱門文章
122
370
57
187
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章