[外絮] 關於LeBron的總冠戰績
這篇外電是在東冠和總冠之間的時候讀到的,
當時有想轉過來,不過大概會被酸成「藉口文」,
尤其如果總冠輸了變成2-5的話...
現在贏球了,應該可以有比較理性的討論總冠軍成績到底意義大不大?? o_O
原文:http://goo.gl/f3bp74
LeBron's Finals record a great accomplishment
LeBron的總冠戰績是一項偉大的成就
Does Michael Jordan's legacy need help? Apparently so, if we look
how eager folks are to shred LeBron James for playing on the
losing side in four NBA Finals.
老喬的傳奇成就需要幫忙辯護嗎?很明顯看起來是唷,
如果我們看看那些酸民如何急著想要嘲笑LBJ在總冠低於五成的勝率。
James has been nothing short of incredible in these playoffs,
reaching the NBA Finals yet again after dispatching the Toronto
Raptors.
James在季後賽的表現總是令人難以置信,今年打敗暴龍後又再度
回到總冠
Consider this fact: James just put up a 34.5 player efficiency
rating in the conference finals while no one else surpassed the
26.0 mark over the same period. Not Steph. Not Klay. Not KD. Not
Russ.
靜下心來想一分鐘:LeBron在東冠的PER值高達34.5,
而在分區冠軍賽的四隊裡面沒有任何一個球員的PER甚至能過26。
Curry, KT, KD和神龜都辦不到。
Furthermore, James is dunking twice as often as he did last
postseason. And the Cavs' offense has been virtually unstoppable,
scoring a sizzling 116.2 points per 100 possessions in the
playoffs.
另外,LeBron今年灌籃次數已經是去年季後賽的兩倍了。
而騎士在本季季後賽的進攻端也是無人能擋,平均100次進攻能得
116.2分。
However, over the next couple of weeks, there's a good chance
you'll see some version of the following Finals note plastered in
big-fonted memes:
然而,在未來的兩週,很有可能你會看到一些人開始酸:
James is just 2-4 for his career in the NBA Finals. What a bum!
More like Le-Fraud, am I right?!
LeBron在總冠戰績只有2-4,真是差勁!根本是個假貨吧?
我猜中了你的心思嗎?
Enoooooough. Blaming James for his 2-4 Finals record is relying on
the silliest stat around, and the latest desperate attempt to
protect Jordan's sacred legacy.
真是夠了!嘲笑LeBron在總冠的戰績只有2-4真的是一個
最蠢的立論了,而這也是酸民們最新最潮的酸法來捍衛MJ神聖的
傳奇成就。
Why is 2-4 so misleading?
為啥2-4誤導很大?
Let's count the reasons.
我數著數,至少有下列原因。
1. Six straight Finals is basically unheard of
第一,連續六年進總冠基本上已經接近前無古人。
Seeing James at the Finals has gotten so common that it's hard to
imagine the championship round without him. James has played his
way into the Finals for a sixth straight season, something that
hasn't been done by a player since Bill Russell pulled off the
feat in 1966.
在總冠看到LeBron的身影已經變成一種常態,讓人甚至
難以想像沒有他的總冠是什麼光景。LeBron六連進冠軍賽的成就
基本上是繼1966年的羅素爺之後的第一人。
For James, it's even more remarkable once you consider that
Russell's Boston Celtics needed to win only one series to reach
the Finals from 1961 to 1965; James and others in this modern era
needed to win three just to get there.
對於LBJ而言,這成就事實上更偉大,因為羅素爺前五次
要進總冠基本上只要打一輪,第二輪就是總冠賽了(1961-1965)。
而對身處現代NBA的LeBron而言,進總冠可是要打三輪才進得去的。
Getting to the Finals six straight times is an amazing
accomplishment for James and his teams, even if he didn't win the
title every time. The 2-4 stat is a clever sleight of hand. It
turns a success into a failure, no different than walking up to a
college graduate and tearing up the diploma because it didn't have
summa cum laude written on it.
能連續進冠軍賽六次本身就是一項偉大的成就,即使他
並沒有每次都拿下總冠。2-4的戰績是個很方便的酸點:把一項
成就說成是一種失敗。這就像是在畢業典禮上去撕毀畢業生的
畢業證書,只因為他沒有拿到書卷獎?
By citing James' "losing" record of 2-4, the implication is that
we'd somehow prefer James to lose earlier in the playoffs and
thereby not tarnish his precious Finals record.
事實上,當你嘲笑LeBron在總冠只有2-4的戰績時,
這似乎在說我們好像寧願LeBron在前幾輪就輸掉算了,
所以他的總冠戰績搞不好會漂亮點?
Another common barb thrown at James' record is that he's always
gotten an easy road to the Finals. One pretty big reason for that:
Of the nine 60-win teams from the East since James entered the
league, James has been on three of them. Also, the last two 60-win
East teams James faced in the playoffs? He beat both.
另外一個常見的酸點是說LeBron躲東區,進總冠容易啦。
但是別忘了一個很重要的原因是,在LBJ進入聯盟以來東區的9隻
60w球隊裡面,LeBron自己就佔了3隻。而最近兩隻東區的60w球隊,
LeBron也都打敗了他們
Last season, the Cavs swept the 60-win Hawks and his Heat in 2011
needed just five games to send the 62-win Bulls -- led by MVP
Derrick Rose -- packing. (And let's not forget that in 2006 a 21-
year-old James took a Cavs squad that started Flip Murray and
Larry Hughes to a Game 7 against the 64-18 Pistons.)
上一個賽季,騎士橫掃了60w的老鷹隊,而熱火在2011年
只用了五場比賽就讓該季MVP Rose領軍的62w公牛打包。
(而我們也別忘了2006第一次進季後賽只有21歲的LeBron和
64w的底特律著戰了7場比賽才敗北,以及2008和該季總冠軍
GAP三巨頭的66w Boston也是打了七戰才飲恨)
The stat you don't often hear is that James has reached the Finals
in seven of his 11 postseasons, which is astounding to think
about. At just 31 years old, James has already reached the
championship round more times than Oscar Robertson, Moses Malone,
George Gervin, Alex English, Bob Lanier, Dan Issel, Charles
Barkley, Reggie Miller, Dominique Wilkins, Steve Nash and Yao
Ming ... combined. Yes, combined.
是的,你不會聽到人們提到LeBron 11進季後賽裡,有
七次能打總冠,當你試著去想這項成就時,你會感到很了不起。
LeBron現在31歲,而他進冠軍賽的次數已經超過下面這些名人堂
球員加起來還多了:
大O,摩斯馬龍,冰人,Alex English, Bob Lanier, Dan Issel,
老巴, 神米,Wilkins, 奈許和姚明。
是的,全部加起來!
If you want to know how hard it is to get to the Finals even once,
just ask those Hall of Famers.
如果你要知道進總冠有多困難的話,只要去問上面
任何一位名人堂球員就知道了。
2. Michael Jordan "failed" earlier
第二,老喬早年也曾經「失敗」過
Critics of James will point to 2-4 as both an indictment on his
career and a nod of praise to Michael Jordan and his sterling 6-0
record. By slighting James, it props up Jordan's legacy as the G.
O. A. T. (Greatest of All-Time).
那些用總冠戰績2-4來批評LeBron的人總是不忘提起
老喬6-0的總冠"神蹟"。好像把LeBron說得弱一點,就更能
捍衛老喬是史上最強球員的地位了一樣。
But a fact that's rarely brought up is that James has missed the
Finals just four times in his postseason career. By comparison,
Jordan reached the Finals in just six of his 13 postseasons.
Framing it another way, James is 7-4 in getting to the
championship round while Jordan was 6-7.
但是事實上,這些人都選擇忽略LeBron 11次季後賽裡
就打了7次總冠,而用這個標準來看,老喬 13次季後賽裡面,
竟然「只」進了總冠六次,所以這樣看來,LBJ反而以7-4領先MJ的6-7。
What a loser that Jordan guy was! Missed the Finals more times
than he made it!
哇,那個叫喬丹的傢伙真是遜啊!竟然進不了總冠的次數
比進去的次數還多ㄟ!
(Sidenote: It's true that James didn't make the playoffs in the
first two seasons in the NBA. If we really want to blame a
teenager for not going deep into the NBA playoffs, we can, while
noting that Jordan didn't even arrive in the NBA until age 21.
James still has reached the Finals more often already -- seven in
13 overall seasons -- than Jordan did his entire 15-season
career.)
(註:當然我們知道LBJ生涯前兩年並沒有進季後賽。
但是你能去苛責一個19,20歲的毛頭小伙子嗎?而且別忘了
老喬進NBA的時候已經21歲了。要用生涯比較的話,LBJ 13季裡
進了總冠7次,依然比MJ 15季裡進了6次略優)
(譯註:另外一點很多人刻意忽視的就是MJ生涯前三年進季後賽
有點運氣成分,包括史上勝率最差的第八種子 32w也進了季後賽)
Of course, citing Jordan's 6-7 finals-appearance record is
incredibly unfair to Jordan, just like 2-4 is to James. But it
points to the contradiction at hand. Would we rather James lose in
the Eastern Conference finals or the first round instead of
competing for the title? No, we should credit James for getting so
far so many times.
當然,我們都知道用6-7去形容老喬的生涯有多麽荒謬,
但是正如同一些酸民用2-4去形容LBJ的總冠一樣。
這就是歪理所在。難道我們會認為LeBron進不了總冠反而更屌?
不!我們應該要去讚揚LBJ能進總冠那麼多次的成就。
After all, James has never lost in the first round of the playoffs
either (something Jordan suffered three times). And James has
never been swept in the first round either (something Jordan
endured twice).
畢竟,LBJ在季後賽還沒有一輪游過,而老喬生涯前三年
的季後賽戰績可是1-9,一輪游了整整三年。包含兩次被橫掃呢。
Looking at the Finals, Jordan didn't ever have to face a 65-win
team, while James has faced two in the last two seasons alone.
Furthermore, Jordan enjoyed homecourt advantage in five of his six
appearances, a luxury that James has only had in two of his six
Finals trips, underscoring that James has overachieved in getting
to the Finals with subpar rosters.
再回頭來看看總冠吧,老喬從來沒有在總冠遇到65w以上的球隊,
而LeBron過去兩年已經遇到兩次。更有甚者,老喬在冠軍賽六次
裡面享有五次主場優勢。而LBJ七次裡面只有兩次。
這代表LeBron其實在己隊實力略遜的情況下依然能帶隊進冠軍賽
並不容易。
Looking at the whole picture, James has a career record of 127-65
(.661) in the playoffs, while Jordan was 119-60 (.665). Quite the
difference, huh?
再來看看整體表現,LeBron在季後賽的戰績是127-65(.661),
而老喬是119-60(.665)。差別「很大吧?」
And yet, people scream and shout that James is a championship
bust.
儘管如此,酸民們依然會大吼大叫著說LBJ就是個亞軍咖
3. Championship-or-bust mentality is lunacy
第三,不奪冠就失敗的心態是一種變態。
Yes, winning the championship is the ultimate team goal. But it is
not the only goal and it certainly isn't the most important
individual achievement. Winning the MVP, for instance, is far more
reflective of a player's accomplishments than touting a
championship-or-bust stat that is so dependent on supporting cast,
coaching and plain ol' good luck.
是的,冠軍是任何一支球隊所要爭取的終極目標。
但是並不是唯一的一個目標,而且它並不是最重要的「個人成就」。
事實上,贏得MVP代表的個人成就遠比冠軍要高。畢竟冠軍的成分
總是和球隊如何息息相關,教練和一些運氣成分在裡面。
By the way, while we're talking about individual achievements,
have you seen who leads the all-time leaderboard for win shares in
the postseason?
對了,我們現在講到了個人成就,你有去看看現在
史上季後賽win shares最高的球員是誰嗎?
That would be James, who just passed MJ last week. James has
accumulated 40.1 playoff win shares while Jordan generated 39.8
with his play, according to Basketball-Reference.com's all-in-one
metric.
那傢伙叫做LeBron James,他在上禮拜剛剛超越了老喬,
成為季後賽史上WS最高的球員。
Playoff win shares
Win Shares
LeBron James 40.1
Michael Jordan 39.8
Tim Duncan 37.8
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 35.6
Magic Johnson 32.6
Source: Basketball-Reference.com
The 2-4 discussion is inherently problematic because James is not
2-4, his teams were. If we graded individual careers solely based
on the number of rings on fingers than Jordan is no better than
Robert Horry (seven championships), Frank Ramsey (seven
championships) or Tom "Satch" Sanders (eight championships).
當你在討論著2-4來貶低LeBron時,你忘了這並不是個
只屬於LeBron的數據,這數據代表著球隊。如果我們要把冠軍戒
也當成個人成就在看,那Robert Horry (7 rings), Frank Ramsey (7
rings)或是Tom "Satch" Sanders (8 rings)成就都比老喬高了。
Going by the ringzzz logic, Beno Udrih has a better NBA résumé
than Jerry West, the guy who is quite literally the logo of the
league. Citing titles as an individual litmus test is a logical
fallacy that ESPN's Pablo S. Torre calls the tyranny of "Big
Playoff."
如果我們繼續用同樣的邏輯去看,立群哥的NBA履歷比
Jerry West還好,而Jerry West可是NBA logo啊!基本上用
冠軍數來當作個人成就,在邏輯上是謬誤的,這在我同事
ESPN的Pablo Torre就曾經立論過。
This is all not to say James is better than Jordan. That is not a
discussion we're having today, not when James is 31 years old and
likely just a little past the halfway point in his career.
當然,我說了那麼多,並不是在說LeBron比老喬棒。
這並不是我們今天所要討論的,並不是在LeBron還只有31歲,
並且還在巔峰的後半段的時候。
But hoisting up the 2-4 record as some sort of indictment on
James' legacy is just as foolish as it is ignorant. And it'll be
more foolish if he goes to 2-5 after facing a legendary 73-9
Warriors squad.
但是用2-4去酸LeBron的成就本身就是件愚蠢而且不負責任的。
如果他無法擊敗另一隻傳奇球隊73-9的勇士而變成2-5,而你用這點
酸他,那會更顯得你的愚蠢。
To me, Jordan is the greatest player of all time. That doesn't
mean we have to tear James and everyone else down. Especially not
for their achievements.
對我而言,老喬依然是史上最偉大的球員。
但是我不認為我們要因此去否決LeBron或其他球員的成就。
============================
心得:其實這篇說的時不時也會有人提出來,文章只是做個比較
完整的表述。其實早在很久以前我就認為用冠軍數來當個人成就
真的是只有NBA才比較會出現的狀況,其他團體運動相對較少。
這就像沒人會用零冠去質疑鈴木一朗在棒球上的個人表現多偉大。
另外借用這篇道理,我之前也有想過所謂打50w球隊的指標的真實意義?
譬如為什麼要用50w?不是60w?又打進季後賽不是就都應該算是
「季後賽球隊」?代表的應該已經是強隊?細分成50w的意義?
而且以季後賽賽制而言,越前面的種子遇到的對手應該就是越弱,
卻用打50w球隊來「暗示」季後賽對手的強弱是否也有誤導之嫌?
那這樣看,是不是以第六種子奪冠的95火箭才是史上最強?
四輪中每一輪對手都是58w+?
而且季後賽能遇到幾勝的對手也不是能選擇的。
而且用對手來看晉級的難度也很偏頗,因為完全忽略了自己球隊
的強度不是嗎?
譬如說70w的球隊打50w的球隊應該和60w打40w的球隊難度差不多啊
所以和對手間的勝負差應該才是晉級冠軍賽前難易與否的指標,
而不是所謂打50w球隊的次數來決定吧?
如果以勝負差來看進冠軍賽的難易,我簡單做了以下這個表
數字代表和對手的勝負差
LBJ 1 2 3 F Results Before F After F
2007 9 9 -3 -8 0-4 Final 15 -8
2011 17 2 -4 5 2-4 Final 15 5
2012 10 4 7 -1 4-1 Final 21 -1
2013 28 17 17 8 4-3 Final 62 8
2014 11 10 -2 -8 1-4 Final 19 -8
2015 13 3 -7 -14 2-4 Final 9 -14
2016 13 9 1 -16 4-3 Final 23 -16
打總冠前三輪的勝負差平均: 23.43
總冠的勝負差平均: -4.86
MJ
1991 22 17 11 3 4-1 Final 50 3
1992 29 16 10 10 4-2 Final 55 10
1993 14 3 -3 -5 4-2 Final 14 -5
1996 30 25 12 8 4-2 Final 67 8
1997 25 13 8 5 4-2 Final 46 5
1998 19 11 4 0 4-2 Final 34 0
打總冠前三輪的勝負差平均: 44.33
總冠的勝負差平均: 3.5
Kobe
2000 23 14 8 11 4-2 Final 45 11
2001 6 1 -2 0 4-1 Final 5 0
2002 9 0 -3 6 4-0 Final 6 6
2004 11 -1 -2 2 1-4 Final 8 2
2008 7 3 1 -9 2-4 Final 11 -9
2009 17 12 11 6 4-1 Final 40 6
2010 7 4 3 7 4-3 Final 14 7
打總冠前三輪的勝負差平均: 18.43
總冠的勝負差平均: 3.29
如表所見,若考量到己方和對方球隊的強弱,
三者第一輪基本上都是屌打對手。
MJ六次冠軍的球隊都是屬於絕對強者,進總冠前的平均勝差高達44.33
基本上除了一年以外其他五年前三輪都是屌打對手的差別。
進總冠後也是有五次有主場優勢,印象中除了93年賽前被視為55波,
其他五年真的都是被評為勝率大的一邊,
Kobe所處的年代的確有幾年西區超強,但是湖人在這七年
本身也不是省油的燈,在進總冠前的平均勝差也有18場之多,
不過明顯2-3輪在某幾年有遇到跟自己相差不多的球隊挑戰
而進入總冠後除了2008算是劣勢遇到66w的超賽,
其他六次賽前都是勝率大的一邊
這樣看起來,LeBron雖然所處的東區偏弱,50w+球隊沒西區多,
但是進總冠前的平均勝差也是22場左右,不算是「特別爽」
不過一般而言1-2輪都可以屌打,要到第三輪才會遇到勝差相近的球隊挑戰
比較突出的反而是進總冠七次只有兩次有主場優勢,
其中四次更是差對手8場勝差以上的絕對劣勢,
也就是若用球隊強弱來看,LBJ拿到冠軍的期待值本來就應該是在2~3之間
說實話,3-4或是2-5其實都不算是出乎意料的結果了。
所以或許Jerry West當初護航的時候說LBJ每次進總冠都是underdog
有點誇大,不過跟幾個前輩相比的確是處在劣勢方,
而過去五年能替東區搌三次冠軍也不算太糟了。
--
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06/29 14:26, 15F
推
06/29 14:27, , 16F
06/29 14:27, 16F
噓
06/29 14:27, , 17F
06/29 14:27, 17F
推
06/29 14:27, , 18F
06/29 14:27, 18F
→
06/29 14:27, , 19F
06/29 14:27, 19F
→
06/29 14:28, , 20F
06/29 14:28, 20F
推
06/29 14:28, , 21F
06/29 14:28, 21F
推
06/29 14:28, , 22F
06/29 14:28, 22F
推
06/29 14:28, , 23F
06/29 14:28, 23F
噓
06/29 14:29, , 24F
06/29 14:29, 24F
推
06/29 14:29, , 25F
06/29 14:29, 25F
推
06/29 14:29, , 26F
06/29 14:29, 26F
推
06/29 14:29, , 27F
06/29 14:29, 27F
推
06/29 14:29, , 28F
06/29 14:29, 28F
→
06/29 14:30, , 29F
06/29 14:30, 29F
→
06/29 14:30, , 30F
06/29 14:30, 30F
推
06/29 14:30, , 31F
06/29 14:30, 31F
推
06/29 14:30, , 32F
06/29 14:30, 32F
推
06/29 14:31, , 33F
06/29 14:31, 33F
推
06/29 14:31, , 34F
06/29 14:31, 34F
→
06/29 14:31, , 35F
06/29 14:31, 35F
→
06/29 14:32, , 36F
06/29 14:32, 36F
→
06/29 14:33, , 37F
06/29 14:33, 37F
→
06/29 14:33, , 38F
06/29 14:33, 38F
→
06/29 14:33, , 39F
06/29 14:33, 39F
還有 681 則推文
還有 1 段內文
噓
06/30 00:25, , 721F
06/30 00:25, 721F
→
06/30 00:26, , 722F
06/30 00:26, 722F
推
06/30 00:26, , 723F
06/30 00:26, 723F
→
06/30 00:27, , 724F
06/30 00:27, 724F
→
06/30 00:27, , 725F
06/30 00:27, 725F
噓
06/30 00:30, , 726F
06/30 00:30, 726F
推
06/30 00:30, , 727F
06/30 00:30, 727F
→
06/30 00:31, , 728F
06/30 00:31, 728F
推
06/30 00:35, , 729F
06/30 00:35, 729F
→
06/30 00:35, , 730F
06/30 00:35, 730F
→
06/30 00:35, , 731F
06/30 00:35, 731F
推
06/30 00:50, , 732F
06/30 00:50, 732F
推
06/30 01:09, , 733F
06/30 01:09, 733F
推
06/30 01:56, , 734F
06/30 01:56, 734F
推
06/30 02:02, , 735F
06/30 02:02, 735F
推
06/30 03:59, , 736F
06/30 03:59, 736F
→
06/30 03:59, , 737F
06/30 03:59, 737F
噓
06/30 07:22, , 738F
06/30 07:22, 738F
推
06/30 07:34, , 739F
06/30 07:34, 739F
推
06/30 07:34, , 740F
06/30 07:34, 740F
推
06/30 08:10, , 741F
06/30 08:10, 741F
噓
06/30 09:19, , 742F
06/30 09:19, 742F
推
06/30 09:35, , 743F
06/30 09:35, 743F
推
06/30 09:51, , 744F
06/30 09:51, 744F
噓
06/30 10:33, , 745F
06/30 10:33, 745F
推
06/30 10:45, , 746F
06/30 10:45, 746F
推
06/30 10:52, , 747F
06/30 10:52, 747F
→
06/30 10:53, , 748F
06/30 10:53, 748F
噓
06/30 11:01, , 749F
06/30 11:01, 749F
推
06/30 11:43, , 750F
06/30 11:43, 750F
噓
06/30 11:52, , 751F
06/30 11:52, 751F
→
06/30 11:53, , 752F
06/30 11:53, 752F
推
06/30 12:51, , 753F
06/30 12:51, 753F
推
06/30 13:08, , 754F
06/30 13:08, 754F
噓
06/30 21:08, , 755F
06/30 21:08, 755F
推
06/30 21:13, , 756F
06/30 21:13, 756F
→
06/30 21:13, , 757F
06/30 21:13, 757F
推
06/30 21:16, , 758F
06/30 21:16, 758F
推
06/30 22:19, , 759F
06/30 22:19, 759F
推
07/02 02:14, , 760F
07/02 02:14, 760F
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