[外絮] Sam Vecenie的選秀報告--Keaton Wagler
https://reurl.cc/epeRXx
今天輪到咱們伊利諾的Keaton Wagler
Overview
Height: 6 ft. 5 in.
Weight: 188 lbs.
Wingspan: 6 ft. 6 1/4 in.
Standing reach: 8 ft. 4 in.
Birthday: Feb. 3, 2007
Age: 19.4
Hometown: Shawnee, Kan.
總覽
身高:6呎5吋
體重:188磅
臂展:6呎6.25吋
站立摸高:8呎4吋
生日:2007/2/3
年齡:19.4歲
家鄉:Shawnee, KS
Analysis分析
I fall in love with players such as Wagler. Players who can dribble, pass,
shoot and process the game quickly are tough to pass up for me. Wagler is a
terrific bet to play both on and off the ball in an era when the NBA demands
those skills from its perimeter players. He drills over 38 percent of his
pull-up 3s and catch-and-shoot 3s, making him a serious floor-spacing threat.
His vision is superb and his handle is tight and slithery despite playing
upright. He’s an elite decision-maker with an excellent feel for the game.
This is the kind of player who thrives in today’s NBA, and he’s already
played in an NBA-style scheme with NBA-level spacing at Illinois.
我愛Wagler這種球員。可以運球、傳球、投籃且可以快速解讀比賽的球員對我來說很難錯
過。Wagler是一個極佳的賭注，因為他能夠打持球也能打無球，而這正是現代NBA對外圍球
員最重視的能力。他持球三分與無球命中率都超過38%，這使他使他成為一個空間威脅。他
的視野非常出色且雖然運球重心較高但依然緊密且靈活。他是一名頂級決策者且有出色的
比賽感覺。這正是當今NBA最容易成功的球員類型，且他在Illinois就已經身處NBA等級的
空間環境並打著NBA風格的球。
There aren’t many scenarios in which Wagler crashes out of the league and
fails, because it’s hard to do so when you can shoot, pass and handle at
this level. But to reach his All-Star upside, Wagler needs to get stronger. He
’s totally fearless on his drives and seems to have great basketball
character. But he needs to get more physical to maintain the advantages he
creates in ball screens and become a consistent on-ball threat. He’ll also
need strength to defend more consistently than what he showed at Illinois
this year. It’s going to take some time.
Wagler幾乎不存在太多失敗並迅速離開聯盟的情境，因為當你可以用這種水準可投可傳還
可運的時候要徹底失敗相當困難。但如果他要達到全明星等級，Wagler必須變得更壯。他
切入的時候無所畏懼且看起來擁有很好的籃球特質。但他必須加強對抗性來保持他在擋拆
中取得的優勢並成為更加穩定的持球威脅。同時，他也需要力量來讓他的防守比在大學時
更加穩定。這需要一些時間。
This is the biggest surprise one-and-done draft pick in the entire time I’ve
been scouting. Wagler was elite this season at Illinois despite his lack of
pedigree. He also led the No. 1 offense in the country. This is a potential
All-Star guard if things break right with his physical development. But even
if he’s always a bit too skinny, I still think teams should bet on him.
他可能是我整個球探生涯中最令人意外的一位One and Done新秀。Wagler在幾乎沒有大學
前背景的情況下，在Illinois打出了菁英的表現。而且他還是全國排名第一進攻體系的領
導者。如果他的身體發展能夠朝理想方向成長，那麼他具備成為全明星後衛的潛力。但即
使他太過削瘦，我仍然認為球隊應該要願意押注在他身上。
Strengths 優勢
-Great size for an NBA combo guard who can play both on and off the ball. Came
in at 6 feet 5 with a 6-foot-6.25 wingspan at the combine. Will have no
problem swapping between playing on and off ball at that size and should
provide flexible positional defensive play depending on what works best for
the team that selects him.
以持球無球兼備的NBA雙能衛來說很好的身材。聯合試訓測出身高6呎5吋臂展6呎6.25吋。
以這樣的尺寸來說，他在持球與無球角色之間切換不會有任何問題，也能根據選中他的球
隊需求，在防守端提供位置上的潛在彈性。
-Very coordinated, balanced athlete. Not very explosive, but maintains his
balance at odd angles while also doing a good job of playing off two feet and
changing speeds. Despite not being strong through his body yet, he can
maintain his balance through contact and get into tight areas of the court.
Very shifty and slithery in the paint. This is a huge part of why he had
success after shifting to point guard for Illinois.
他是一名協調性極佳且平衡感出色的運動員。他爆發力不算太好，但能在各種奇怪的角度
下保持平衡同時還擅長用變速及雙腳打球。即使身體不算強壯，他仍然能在碰撞保持平衡
並擠入狹窄的空間。他在禁區內的移動十分靈巧且滑順。這也是為甚麼他在Illinois轉打
控衛取得成功的很大因素。
-Tremendous feel for the game. Sure-footed. Makes good decisions, times his
cuts and relocations off the ball well. Makes decisions very quickly. Rarely
seems to hold onto the ball too long when he sees an advantage available. Has
an innate understanding of where the advantage is on the court and can
execute off that. The ultimate selfless player. He’s all about what makes
the most sense for the team to maintain an advantage.
對比賽感覺極為出色。腳步穩健。優良的決策能力，無球空切與重新跑位的時機非常好。
做決策的速度很快。當他發現優勢時很少會黏球太久。他似乎天生就知道球場上的優勢在
哪然後能夠立刻執行。他是個終極無私的球員。他關心的永遠是怎麼讓團隊保持優勢。
-There aren’t many skill-based aspects where he’s deficient right now. He's
a terrific ballhandler, a good shooter, an improving finisher on the interior
and an excellent passer. That combination of skills is hard to find for
someone this young, and the fact that he combines them all is what makes him
so hard to guard.
現階段，他沒太多技術面上的缺陷。他是個出色的運球者、好的射手、進步中的內線終結
者及優秀的傳球者。對一名如此年輕的球員來說，這些技巧的組合很少見，而這也造就他
為何很難防守。
-Wagler’s skill starts with the threat of his jumper. He uses it better than
any player in the draft class, and maybe better than anyone in the last few
draft classes as a ballhandler. He’s a big-time shooter both off the catch
and in pull-up situations, which allows him to change speeds and get
defenders off-balance. He was one of the few players in the country to make
at least 38 percent of his 3s both in pull-up situations and off the catch,
along with Darius Acuff Jr. Has great touch, and made 80 percent of his free
throws this year, too.
Wagler的技能首先是他跳投的威脅性。他運用得比本屆所有球員都還要好，甚至作為持球
者比過去幾屆的新秀都還要好。他無論接球還是持球投籃都是高水準的射手，這幫助他可
以變速並讓防守者失去平衡。他與Darius Acuff Jr.是全國少數無論持球還是接球三分命
中率都至少38%以上的球員之一。他手感出色，他今年的罰球命中率也高達80%。
-Two important skills make him an incredibly high-level shooter. It starts
with his base. Because Wagler constantly plays off two feet, he’s always
looking to catch and fire from 3. If it’s a pull-up, he’s also great at
setting his feet underneath him and getting on balance. Wagler also has a
very quick release. His shooting pocket is low, but he gets the shot off very
quickly and has deep range. As a catch-and-shoot player this year, Wagler
drilled 40.8 percent of his 3s and is always ready to fire. He’s also very
sharp off the offensive glass as a relocator, always seeming to find space to
get an open shot for himself.
他有兩項關鍵能力造就他是如此出色的射手。首先是他的底座。因為Wagler穩定的用運用
雙腳打球，他永遠都在尋找接球三分的機會。如果是持球三分，他也在將雙腳調整到理想
位置及保持平衡的這件事上做得很優秀。雖然他的出手位置偏低，但他可以快速且從長距
離出手。本季作為接球射手，他的三分命中率達到40.8%，而且幾乎隨時都準備好出手。他
在球隊搶到進攻籃板時的重新跑位也相當精煉，看起來永遠都能替自己找到空檔。
-Wagler also turned into a monster pull-up shooter. Because he is constantly
on balance, he’s a threat to score from all three levels. Out top, he can
dribble into pull-up jumpers both going to his left and to his right. His
quick release and excellent balance come into play here, on top of his
ability to get defenders off-balance to separate with his handle. His
favorite move is the simultaneous jab right, crossover left step-back and he
gets defenders with it at least once per game.
Wagler也變成了怪物級的持球射手。因為他永遠都保持平衡，他在哪裡都是得分威脅。在
弧頂，他能夠往左或往右運球後直接急停跳投。他的快速出手及出色的平衡在這裡發揮了
影響力，再加上讓防守者失去平衡的運球能力，使他很難防守。他最喜歡的招牌動作是朝
右邊Jab Step接下來向左變向運球後撤，然後他場均可能都可以用這招騙到防守者一次。
-Because of that threat from inside of 30 feet, defenders have to play up on
his shot, which allows him to get into the teeth of the defense with a crafty
handle. Plays at a very awkward cadence that’s hard to defend. He’s
herky-jerky with his handle, constantly changing speeds with inside-out
dribbles and hesitations. He uses the hesitation dribble so well. Seems to
hang onto it until the last possible split second before either driving or
firing from 3. Can use those hang dribbles to get into high-level crossovers.
Because of his pull-up shooting, defenders often bite on those hesitation
dribbles. Also loves to go behind the back on his drives because of how
quickly he can shift and stop on a dime.
由於他在接近30呎範圍內都具備投射威脅，防守者不得不提前上前壓迫，這也讓他可以用
他狡詰的運球切到防守的深處。他的節奏非常特別讓他難以被防守。運球風格帶有強烈的
頓挫感，持續用Inside-Out運球及懸浮球來不斷變速。他使用懸浮球的技術爐火純青。他
總是把球停留到最後一瞬間才決定要切入還是直接投三分。他可以運用這些運球在接到一
些高級的變相運球。由於他的急停投籃威脅極大，防守者往往會對這些懸浮球做出反應。
此外，他在切入時也喜歡背後運球，因為他可以快速地停下來。
-Superb in ball screens. Plays at a great tempo and pace. Comes off his
screens from his bigs tightly to gain an advantage, then is excellent at
maintaining that advantage despite his lack of strength. Can keep offensive
players on his hip and force the big to help up on him in drop coverage. Also
consistently makes good decisions when teams blitz him and generally shows
that he knows how to put the ball where it needs to go. He is excellent at
rejecting ball screens and timing up when bigs and ballhandlers are vacating
the lane to create an open driving angle.
他擁有頂級擋拆。他有出色的節奏控制。利用隊友掩護時，他會非常貼近掩護者來取得優
勢，之後即使力量不足，也能持續維持優勢。他可以讓防守球員卡在他的屁股後面並逼迫
Drop的長人得上提來訪守他。他也能持續在對他的夾擊中做出好的決策並把球送到該去的
位置。他也擅長使用拒絕掩護並抓準長人離開禁區露出路徑的時機創造突破角度。
-Great at finding seams and creases as a driver to get to the rim. Has no fear
as a driver. Willing to absorb contact. Also drives in straight lines to get
to the rim as opposed to taking rounded angles or avoiding contact. Always
seems to get to the basket. Averaged over three shots at the rim this season
in half-court settings, per Synergy, after taking over as the team’s lead
ballhandler.
作為切入者，他很擅長找到前往籃筐的縫隙。他做為切入者相當無懼。願意吸收碰撞。而
且他通常採取直線突破，而非繞大圈或刻意閃避身體接觸。看起來永遠都能找到方法接近
籃框。根據Synergy數據，自從接任球隊的主持球後，他在半場進攻中平均每場能完成超過
3次籃下出手。
-Was an effective finisher at the rim given how many of his shots were
self-created. Made 56 percent of his attempts at the rim in half-court
settings after Dec. 1. Does a great job manipulating the ball in the air and
adjusting around rim protectors. Very much a below-the-rim finisher, but
finds his way into tight creases and maneuvers around to create shots at the
basket with tremendous footwork. Seems to have strong ankles and terrific
balance to get himself into awkward positions, maintain his coordination and
then go up to finish.
考量到他的出手大部分都是自己創造的，他做為籃下終結者很有影響力。他在12/1之後，
半場進攻的情況下籃下命中率56%。他很擅長在半空中操縱球的位置然後調整避開護框者。
雖然他是個地板型的籃下終結者，但他總能憑藉優異腳步在狹小空間中找到終結機會。他
看起來有強壯的腳踝及出色的平衡來讓他在奇怪的姿勢下維持協調性然後完成出手。
-Wagler’s also an excellent passer. Averaged five assists in conference play
this year because he consistently can draw defenders on the interior and then
make high-level kickout reads to his teammates. Played in an excellent
five-out style at Illinois and consistently sprayed the ball out quickly with
decisiveness. Has great vision to find teammates in the dunker spot or out
beyond the 3-point line.
Wagler也是個出色的傳球守。在本季的聯盟比賽中，因為他能如此穩定的吸引內線防守者
然後作出高水準的向外傳球，他場均5助攻。在Illinois打著優秀的五外打法並能總是快速
且果斷地把球傳出去。他有優秀的事也讓他可以找到在Dunker Spot或是三分線的隊友。
-Consistently takes what the defense gives him. If they put two players on the
ball, he attacks with a quick pass over the top to the short roller or
pick-and-pop big. If a team is in drop, he’s excellent at maintaining his
advantage and finding players in the corner, on the wing or throwing a lob.
他總是能處理防守給他的選項。如果你包夾他，他會塊傳給短擋拆的順下者或是外拆的長
人。如果對手採取沉退，他能維持突破優勢並找到底角及側翼的隊友或直接空拋。
-Rarely turns the ball over for how much he handles it. Averaged only 2.1
turnovers per game in conference play as a point guard and posted a 2.5-to-1
assist-to-turnover ratio as a freshman. A sharp decision-maker who you can
rely upon to do the right thing.
以他的持球量來說，他很少失誤。他在聯盟賽做為控衛時場均僅2.1次失誤並以新鮮人的身
分維持2.5:1的助攻失誤比。是一名精明且可靠會做正確事情的決策者。
-Off the ball, he’s smart in his movements. Cuts with effort and quickness.
Relocates into open areas beyond the 3-point line off of offensive rebounds.
Seems to have a great understanding of how to put himself into dangerous
positions. He was an excellent offensive rebounder early in the season.
Averaged nearly two per game over the full year, but was at nearly three per
game over his first eight games of the season when he played off the ball and
could regularly attack the glass.
無球端，他移動的很聰明。他會積極且迅速的空切。進攻籃板後也懂得重新跑位到三分線
外空檔。似乎非常清楚如何把自己放在最具威脅性的位置。他開季時也是出色的進攻籃板
手。他整年場均接近2次進攻籃板，且在開季的前8場打更多無球角色可以更常衝搶時時場
均接近3個進攻籃板。
-Defensively, Wagler has some work to do, but at least he plays hard on that
end and generally has a sense of where he needs to be. Rotates around the
play well. Doesn’t get out of position. Generally closes out well and on
balance. Needs to work on his disruptiveness, for sure, as he gets stronger,
but he’s starting from a decent place.
防守端仍有進步空間，但至少他的比賽態度很好，而且通常知道自己應該站在哪裡。輪轉
意識很好。不太失位。大部分時間的closeout都做得穩定且保持平衡。在他變得更強壯後
必須讓他更能在防守中製造回合，但他的起點很好。
Areas for improvement 要進步的點
-Wagler’s physical frame has a lot of room for improvement. This is by far
the biggest question as he enters the NBA. He got stronger throughout the
course of the year and over last summer under Illinois’ strength and
conditioning staff, widely considered one of the best in college basketball.
But he still needs to get even more physically ready to play in the NBA. Came
in at 188 pounds at the combine.
Wagler 的身體條件仍有很大的進步空間。這也是他至今進入NBA最大的疑問。在全美大學
被普遍認為是最佳的Illinois(去年Kasparas Jakucionis及Will Riley也都增重很多)體能
訓練團隊的幫助下，他整年及去年夏天確實增重了不少。但即使如此，他仍需要進一步提
升身體素質，才能做好對NBA比賽的準備。他聯合試訓僅有188磅的體重。
-Not explosive as a leaper or with his first step. Has a concerning
intersection of athleticism and frame that might get him pushed around too
much in the NBA early. Doesn’t explode upward effectively. Had zero dunks
this year, which is an anomaly for a player this big at the lead guard
position. Illinois played at a slow, deliberate pace that forced him into
more half-court possessions and didn’t allow for many run-out 3s, but Wagler
doesn’t have a ton of pop to his game. Much more of a crafty player who gets
by with change of pace and shiftiness.
他的第一步爆發力與垂直彈跳能力都不算突出。他的運動能力與身體條件之間存在一個令
人擔憂的交集，那就是他在NBA前期會被力量壓制。他的垂直爆發力不強。以該位置如此大
隻的球員來說，他整季沒有半次灌籃，這相當罕見。Illinois的進攻節奏較慢且偏向半場
進攻，讓他較少獲得快攻灌籃或跟進三分的機會，但即便如此，Wagler的技能中仍然缺乏
爆發力。他更像是依靠節奏變換及靈活度的技術流球員。
-In that vein, it’s worth noting how good Illinois’ offensive scheme was
compared to others in the country. The Illini did a tremendous job of finding
open space by playing consistently five-out with the Ivisic brothers both
capable of knocking down shots from the perimeter at the five. No team was
better offensively this year at hitting the low-hanging fruit in terms of
attacking advantageous matchups with more guard-to-guard screening actions,
allowing Wagler to find mismatches in ways that other college players don’t.
Wagler is certainly not just a creation of the offensive scheme, but some
scouts question whether Wagler was elevated by the scheme more comparatively
to other prospects.
很重要的一點是要知道Illinois本季的進攻體系相比於全國的其他學校有多優秀。Illi靠
著找來能夠投三分的五號Ivisic兄弟檔可以持續打五外並有著相當開闊的空間。本季沒有
任何球隊比Illinois更擅長利用簡單優勢。像是後衛與後衛之間的掩護能讓Wagler找到其
他大學球員所沒有的錯位機會。Wagler當然不僅只是靠著進攻戰術佈置才能製造出手的球
員，但一些球探質疑(以及我XD)相較於其他新秀，他是否比一般球員更受益於體系加成?
-When he faced strong, athletic players on the perimeter, they generally could
recover back in front of him. He will need to get stronger to maintain his
advantages in ball screens in the NBA. Even with this, he still found ways to
be productive and effective by making quick decisions. But teams will test
him early on and force him to either shoot consistent pull-up midrange
jumpers or to maintain that advantage on the screen by keeping players on his
hip.
當他面對強壯且運動能力出色的外線防守者時，對手通常能夠重新回到他的面前。他需要
變的更強壯才能在NBA維持他擋拆的優勢。即使如此，本季他仍然透過快速決策維持高效率
。但NBA球隊會在他生涯早期考驗他並迫使他得穩定命中中距離持球跳投或是在擋拆後持續
把防守者卡在身後維持優勢。
-The midrange game was not a part of Illinois’ offense or Wagler’s
repertoire this year. I worry about his ability to counter defenses. He took
about half a shot per game from the midrange and made just 33 percent of
them, per Synergy. His low shooting pocket in these areas seemed to cause
issues, as these shots were more contested than others. Can he consistently
find this shot if he needs it? Or can he develop a floater? He took about one
of those per game and made only 34.3 percent of them. Might need to add a bit
of core strength to maintain his balance on these shots to better access his
natural touch.
中距離幾乎不是Illinois或是Wagler進攻的一部分。我對他未來如何反制防守仍有一些疑
慮。根據Synergy數據，他場均只會出手0.5次中距離且僅有33%的命中率。他的低出手點有
可能是問題之一，因為他比其他人更容易在中距離受到干擾。他可以在需要的時候穩定投
進這些球嗎?他可以發展出一手拋投嗎?本季他場均約出手一次拋投，命中率僅34.3%。他可
能必須加強核心力量才能在這類投籃中維持平衡，進一步發揮他原本不錯的手感。
-Defensively, Wagler will need to get stronger and more disruptive. This is
his biggest weakness right now. He does not make many high-impact plays on
the defensive end. He’s typically in the right spots. But he only averaged
about 0.9 steals and 0.4 blocks per game. In general, Brad Underwood’s
scheme on defense tends to depress blocks and steals, but you could see that
Wagler didn’t hinder what the opposition wanted to do out there, either.
防守端，Wagler需要變得更強壯，也需要更具破壞性。這是他目前最大的弱點。他在防守
上很少做出高影響力的Play。他通常都在正確的位置。但他場均僅有0.9抄截與0.4火鍋。
整體來說，Brad Underwood的戰術佈置本來就會壓低火鍋與抄截，但從比賽內容來看，
Wagler也確實沒有太多干擾對手進攻的能力。
-Against players with strength or a lower center of gravity, he sometimes got
powered through his chest when he was in front of his man in one-on-one
coverages. He couldn’t quite stop his man from getting penetration and would
often have to cede ground, allowing a paint touch. Can he hold his line in
the NBA, especially early?
當面對力量較強或重心較低的球員時，即使已經站在正確位置，他仍然經常被對手直接撞
開。他無法有效阻止對手突破第一道防線並得讓開位置進而讓對手得到禁區觸球。他能在
NBA護住自己的站位嗎?尤其是生涯前期。
-There is a chance he’s a negative defender in the way that Tyrese Haliburton
is, even though his feel for the game is terrific, just because he can’t
quite hold his ground on that end. Much like with his other weaknesses, it’s
imperative that Wagler gets stronger.
有一種可能性是，他最終會成為類似Tyrese Haliburton那樣的負面防守者。即便他對比賽
的感覺出色，但就是沒辦法在防守端站住位置。就像前面提到的許多缺點一樣，Wagler變
壯非常的重要。
身家背景 跳過
心得:
投射出色 運球優良 菁英視野 無球努力且聰明的全能無爆發力豆芽菜
幾乎所有問題都圍繞在他的體能與對抗性
進NCAA前僅是3星高中生 連離他近在咫尺的Kansas大學都看不上他 伊利諾是唯一一所給他
獎學金的Power 4學校 大學也在伊利諾舒適的環境徹底打出來大爆發
字裡行間可以感受到Vecenie看起來非常喜歡他
(話說這幾年Brad Underwood名聲累積的挺好的 底層教練出身輾轉到Illinois 然後今年居
然已經可以招募到五星高中生Quentin Coleman了 想當年他剛上任還要努力說服Ayo來陪他
重建)
--
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阿就 貫穿一切問題的豆芽菜 :(
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※ 編輯: EZ78 (118.165.122.237 臺灣), 06/22/2026 20:43:50
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