[新聞] Not a Rookie: Phil Hughes
http://tinyurl.com/4ese4g
Lots of people have been asking me about Phil Hughes, so here goes. First the
brief career rundown.
Hughes was drafted in the first round in 2004, 23rd overall, out of high school
in Santa Ana, California. He threw five shutout innings in a three-game trial
in the Gulf Coast League. Scouts liked his projectability and his command of
his low-90s fastball, along with a strong slider and changeup. I gave him a
Grade B in the '05 book, worried about reports regarding a sore elbow.
Shoulder trouble limited him to 16 starts in 2005, but they went well,
including a 1.97 ERA and a 72/16 K/BB in 69 innings in the Sally League, and a
21/4 K/BB in 18 innings in the Florida State League. He improved his curveball
dramatically and began using it more than the slider, to reduce stress on his
arm. I raised his grade to B+ in the '06 book, but was worried about injury
risk.
Hughes threw 146 innings in 2006, split between five starts for Tampa and 21
for Double-A Trenton, where he went 10-3, 2.25 with a 138/32 K/BB in 116
innings. His velocity spiked into the 93-95 range, hitting 96 at times. The
curveball also got better. Scouts were somewhat concerned about his erratic
changeup, but overall it was hard to knock his performance. I gave him a
straight Grade A, now considering that his injury risk was no higher than any
other pitcher his age.
As you know, Hughes did have some durability troubles last year, Thankfully it
was his hamstrings and a bum ankle that were the problems, not his elbow or
shoulder. He held his own in major league action, very commendable given his
age and the pressure of the New York environment, but his velocity was down at
times, and again this year in the early going. In his major league career thus
far, Hughes is 5-6, 5.14 with a 69/39 K/BB in 91 innings. He's been hit hard in
April, and I don't like his 11/10 K/BB ratio in 2008.
So what is wrong with Hughes? I get panicked email from Yankees fans, asking if
he was overhyped. No, he wasn't overhyped. Yes, there is a problem with Hughes
right now. He's 21, practically skipped Triple-A, and is pitching for the New
York Freaking Yankees. Cut the kid some slack. Indications are that his
mechanics are a bit off right now , hampering his fastball command and probably
the velocity too. As long as he remains healthy, I think there is a really good
chance that Hughes will be just fine. Maybe he just needs some additional
Triple-A time to regain his mechanical footing.
Ah, but there's the standard young pitcher caveat: as long as he remains
healthy. I'm not worried about the mechanical problem in and of itself: that
should be correctable. But what if the mechanical problem is a symptom of some
underlying physical issue? That's known to happen, a pitcher altering his
delivery on a subconcious level in response to a developing injury that he's
not even aware of yet. Or what if there is no physical problem right now, but
the mechanical tinkering triggers one as muscles are stressed in an unusual
way? That's known to happen, too.
Yankees fans want a prediction. So here's one: Hughes will struggle on and off
the next month or two, alternate strong outings with weak ones, with a slight
improvement in his ratios but not enough to make statheads comfortable. Then
in late July he goes on the DL with an injury of some kind, probably something
vague like "shoulder weakness." He rests and rehabs, comes back in September
and pitches like his normal self the rest of the way. He still may have to pay
the Major Injury Piper sometime down the line, but not this year.. Whaddya
think?
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