Re: [問題] 我想請問Melky的守備

看板NY-Yankees作者airplanes (幹不要鬧了...)時間18年前 (2008/05/09 06:09)推噓6(6推 0噓 0→)

留言6則, 6人參與討論串2/3 (看更多)

※ 引述《ahuahala (誰可以送點P幣借我賭錢XD)》之銘言： : 我以為他這樣速度快、臂力強、年輕的選手，守備應該算好的。 : 但是記得早上看到某篇大家在討論甘迺迪卻說到牛奶的守備不好。 : 是為什麼不好？？ : 判斷還不夠快或是成熟嗎？還是比較保守，看似沒機會的就不拼了？ : 大概就是這樣吧，想請問一下。 : 先謝過了。　稍稍參考一下吧，有專業板友已經說明小卡布的守備range小或其它問題，　不過，他倒是蠻強肩的～ by John Walsh January 07, 2008 Center Fielders B.J. Upton had the best center field arm of 2007—what is it with these ex-second basemen? (See Soriano, below.) I haven't seen much of Upton, so I checked a couple of his throws on video and he does seem to have a strong arm. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up the strong performance moving forward. B.J. Upton 有 07 年中外野最強肩的手臂，這些前二壘手是火星人嗎？（看原文有關 Soriano）我還不能看得出太多 Upton 的資訊，所以我看了些他投球影片而他確實具有強壯的手臂。如果他能在未來保持著堅強表現，看起來將會頗精彩。 Name Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200 Upton_B.J. 108 224 101 4.6 8.5 Taveras_Willy 99 240 102 3.0 6.1 Edmonds_Jim 125 166 111 3.5 5.6 Suzuki_Ichiro 199 143 116 5.2 5.2 Freel_Ryan 81 120 104 2.0 5.0 Cabrera_Melky 185 207 99 4.2 4.5 Amezaga_Alfredo 103 266 86 2.0 3.9 Patterson_Corey 138 132 101 2.6 3.8 Roberts_Dave 100 168 103 1.9 3.7 Rowand_Aaron 204 79 115 3.7 3.6 Jones_Andruw 185 56 126 2.4 2.6 Pence_Hunter 117 141 106 0.9 1.5 Lofton_Kenny 107 97 104 0.8 1.5 Hall_Bill 154 119 105 1.0 1.3 Granderson_Curtis 222 99 100 1.2 1.1 Young_Chris 168 61 104 0.2 0.2 Cameron_Mike 178 114 108 0.1 0.1 Crisp_Coco 148 24 105 -0.1 -0.2 Beltran_Carlos 155 120 90 -0.2 -0.2 Duffy_Chris 87 39 106 -0.7 -1.7 Wells_Vernon 140 97 93 -1.6 -2.3 Sizemore_Grady 193 73 105 -2.6 -2.7 DeJesus_David 182 90 103 -2.7 -3.0 Matthews_Gary 154 95 86 -2.4 -3.1 Hunter_Torii 174 64 97 -3.1 -3.6 McLouth_Nate 92 41 88 -2.7 -5.8 Swisher_Nick 84 0 94 -2.5 -6.1 Owens_Jerry 101 36 90 -3.5 -6.9 Logan_Nook 111 31 89 -4.1 -7.4 Pierre_Juan 184 56 83 -6.9 -7.5 I usually, for purely selfish reasons, hope that Ichiro will take the top ranking in my analysis. In 2005 Suzuki came out about average (in right field) and in 2006 he ranked fifth among right fielders (5.1 Runs/200), but that didn't meet the expectations of his many fans, a goodly number of whom wrote to say that my rankings were, ahem, less than accurate. His 2007 performance, now in center, was almost a carbon copy of 2006. I suppose I should be expecting some email. 　我通常啦，會純私心希望一朗能在我的分析圖表裡拿第 1名。05 年他在右外野排名平均，拿 06 年拿第 5 名（每 200 次機會守下 5.1 分），但沒有滿足他的粉絲們期望，其中有相當多的人寫東西來說，我的排名只有「呃！」推文，不準確。一朗現在做中外野手，在 07 年的表現幾乎是影印 06 年數字，我應該要開始等 email 了... Have a look at Nick Swisher's Kill+ — actually, he doesn't have one. To be fair, Swisher did have one extra assist in his 481 center field innings. The Oakland outfielder also played around 400 innings in right field, where he recorded a grand total of two assists (both extra) and had a Runs/200 of -0.4. I'm not sure how the A's plan to deploy Swisher and Travis Buck in left and right field, but it actually (from the throwing viewpoint) doesn't matter much. Buck was pretty bad, too, in limited action (-9 Runs/200 in 57 opps). [Update: scratch that last thought, Swish is now a White Sox.] 看一下 Nick Swisher 的阻殺率（與假定的平均球員其平均值，相減而所得出數字，平均值設定為 100），事實上他得到 0 。為表公平，Swisher在他 481 中外野手局數裡得到 1 次額外助殺，這個綠帽也做右外野手約 400 局，那位置他得到鳥不起的 2 次額外助殺，而且每 200 守備機會得 -0.4 分。我不確定綠帽如何決定把 Swisher 和 Travis Buck 放在左右外野，但以上僅是單純從投傳的觀點，事實上沒那麼重要。Buck 也很鳥，在蠻有限的 57 次機會中，得出 -9 Runs/200。 [更新：劃掉關於 Swisher 的上一季看法，他現在到白襪了] Note that you have to interpret Kill+ and Hold+ with some caution. For example, compare Hunter Pence and Corey Patterson in the table above. (Whoa! I just spotted Torii Hunter below Crisp, DeJesus and Matthews. Who'd've thunk it?) Anyway, Pence was better than Patterson in both Hold+ and Kill+, but ranks lower in Runs/200. The first thing you should know is that both of these guys had five kills against 3.6 expected for Pence and 3.8 expected for Patterson. In other words, they were virtually equal in throwing out runners. Furthermore, Patterson's kills (and holds) occurred in slightly more critical situations, in terms of run value, than Hunter's did, hence the slightly higher ranking for Patterson. Lastly, Patterson gained a little in extra assists, while Pence lost a fraction of a run. The lesson here: don't split hairs over rankings that are fairly close. 　　注意一下你必須仔細點理解阻殺率 Kill+ 和壘包守備率 Hold+，舉例，比較 Hunter Pence 和 Corey Patterson 在圖表上半部（哇～我注意到 Torii Hunter 排名比 Crisp, DeJesus 和 Matthews 低，誰能料想到？）不論如何，Pence 在 Kill+ 和 Hold+ 都較 Patterson 來得好，但在 Runs/200 項目排名較低。第一個你必須理解的是，他們兩人都剛好有 5 次阻殺，而 Pence 這幾次機會期望需要殺成功的數值是 3.6，而 Patterson 的數字是 3.8。換句話講，他們倆傳往跑壘者的能力差不多，進一步說，Patterson 的阻殺和 hold 住壘包，發生時機比較具有急迫性，在守住分數的價值上，比起 Hunter 較高些。因此給予 Patterson 稍高的排名。最後一件事，Patterson 得了些額外助殺，同時 Pence 在守分上失些數字。這裡需要學堂課：不要在相當接近的名次上，做些很無聊的辯論分析。 Juan Pierre had the worst arm of any full-time center fielder, but that is no surprise to anybody. No need to split hairs with Pierre, his is truly a noodle arm, and it's definitely not al dente (sorry). Juan Pierre 是全部專職中外野手裡最弱肩，但應該沒人被結果嚇到。不需要對這球員多做討論，他真的只有麵條手，而且完全沒有嚼勁... --- 附上外野另兩位置arms排名: Right Fielders Name Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200 Cuddyer_Mike 164 245 110 12.0 14.6 Francoeur_Jeff 177 241 112 11.9 13.4 Victorino_Shane 135 170 128 8.2 12.2 Young_Delmon 171 168 121 9.2 10.8 Rios_Alexis 160 124 112 4.5 5.6 Teahen_Mark 183 172 95 4.8 5.3 Abreu_Bobby 177 59 116 3.2 3.6 Hermida_Jeremy 146 114 102 2.1 2.8 Markakis_Nick 203 112 104 1.9 1.9 Guerrero_Vladimir 121 92 113 1.1 1.8 Guillen_Jose 212 83 107 1.2 1.1 Kearns_Austin 200 98 98 -0.3 -0.3 Scott_Luke 95 116 92 -0.6 -1.2 Ethier_Andre 112 175 78 -0.8 -1.5 Cruz_Nelson 90 128 88 -0.7 -1.6 Ordonez_Magglio 142 58 108 -1.3 -1.8 Nixon_Trot 82 127 101 -1.1 -2.6 Winn_Randy 115 0 101 -1.8 -3.1 Drew_J.D. 114 73 94 -1.8 -3.1 Dye_Jermaine 185 84 89 -3.3 -3.6 Encarnacion_Juan 82 33 105 -1.8 -4.3 Hawpe_Brad 144 68 90 -3.2 -4.4 Nady_Xavier 94 89 84 -2.3 -4.9 Hart_Corey 144 56 95 -5.6 -7.7 Green_Shawn 97 27 97 -3.8 -7.9 Griffey_Ken 162 31 84 -6.5 -8.1 Giles_Brian 130 22 83 -7.6 -11.6 Left Fielders Name Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200 Soriano_Alfonso 152 266 108 12.9 17.0 Monroe_Craig 103 154 106 2.2 4.3 Willingham_Josh 182 124 113 3.1 3.4 Anderson_Garret 100 147 100 1.6 3.2 Alou_Moises 101 151 98 1.6 3.2 Matsui_Hideki 133 109 103 1.9 2.9 Michaels_Jason 82 64 110 1.0 2.4 Bay_Jason 222 136 100 1.5 1.4 Duncan_Chris 130 84 101 0.5 0.7 Holliday_Matt 182 101 101 0.5 0.5 Ibanez_Raul 176 121 96 0.4 0.4 Byrnes_Eric 116 133 85 -0.2 -0.4 Jenkins_Geoff 151 93 97 -0.5 -0.6 Lee_Carlos 188 89 96 -0.7 -0.7 Burrell_Pat 142 125 96 -0.5 -0.7 Brown_Emil 81 190 87 -0.3 -0.7 Ramirez_Manny 129 110 90 -0.9 -1.5 Payton_Jay 157 18 106 -1.2 -1.5 Willits_Reggie 84 66 104 -0.7 -1.8 Crawford_Carl 176 32 108 -1.7 -2.0 Gathright_Joey 85 111 94 -1.7 -3.9 Harris_Willie 84 71 93 -1.8 -4.3 Church_Ryan 109 79 101 -2.4 -4.3 Dunn_Adam 161 57 95 -4.0 -5.0 Diaz_Matt 85 95 89 -2.1 -5.0 Kubel_Jason 84 32 98 -2.7 -6.4 Bonds_Barry 89 32 99 -2.9 -6.6 Gonzalez_Luis 120 101 81 -5.8 -9.6 Stewart_Shannon 153 55 85 -8.8 -11.6 --- From: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2007/ 相關作者分析理論請參考原文，翻得錯誤或不完全請見諒，並不吝推文指正，感恩。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.161.33.227