[閒聊] Lamenting Lannan's labors

看板Nationals作者s9527206 (悠)時間15年前 (2010/05/04 22:32)推噓1(1推 0噓 5→)

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Lamenting Lannan's labors By Mark Zuckerman Monday, May 3, 2010 There is much angst this morning in NatsTown over the de facto ace of the pitching staff, who has pitched nothing like an ace so far this season. 今天 NatsTown 的早晨瀰漫著憂鬱的氣氛，只因為我們的王牌投手表現失常，今年球季到目前為止他實在表現得不像是名ACE。 John Lannan may not have ace stuff, but he entered the season as the Nationals' best starter, and his track record over the last 2 1/2 years suggested he'd established himself as a solid big-league pitcher. 或許 Lannan 並沒有ACE級的stuff，但是以往當球季開始後他就一直是我們隊上表現最好的先發投手。過去兩年多所累積的成績顯示他已經證明自己的確是一位可靠的大聯盟等級的投手。 The left-hander's numbers through six outings -- 1-2, 6.34 ERA, a staggering 1.93 WHIP -- suggest he's anything but solid. And yesterday's ragged outing in Miami, in which he was roughed up for six runs on nine hits in five innings, suggests this may be more than a blip on the radar screen. 然而迄今為止他所繳出的六場先發內容 -- 1勝2敗，防禦率6.34，同時WHIP值是嚇人的1.93 -- 這樣的成績實在說不上是可靠。還有昨天他在邁阿密也是投得十分掙扎，慘遭馬林魚隊打者的毒手 -- 只投5局就被敲出9支安打而且狂失6分 -- 這個跡象暗示著可能不僅只是短暫性的不穩而已。 So what's going on here? Is Lannan merely going through a rough patch, or is he finally regressing into the sub-par major leaguer many stathounds have been saying he would become? 所以，這究竟是怎麼一回事呢？或許這只是代表他目前正處於低潮；還是說，就如同大多數的專家過去一直所說的，最終 Lannan 將會回歸成為一位低於聯盟平均的投手？ For those unaware with the sabermetrics argument against Lannan, it basically boils down to this: He's the least-effective pitcher in baseball at making hitters swing and miss. Batters make more contact against him than any other pitcher in the game. For the last 2 1/2 years, Lannan has merely been lucky that all those balls put into play have been hit right at fielders, especially groundballs. Eventually, the law of averages was going to start turning those outs into base hits. 以棒球統計學的觀念來切入分析，那些對 Lannan 比較不利的論據基本上可以歸納成以下所述：以「能夠讓打者揮空」的觀點來看，Lannan 可說是最缺乏效率的投手。相較於其他的投手，在比賽中打者可以更容易打到 Lannan 的球。而他之所以過去兩年半以來沒被打爆只是因為很幸運地，大部分這些被打進場內的球都剛好朝著守備員而去，尤其是滾地球。基於平均律修正的結果，以往這些出局數現在都可能形成安打。 Indeed, it is really tough to be a successful pitcher when only 24 of the 561 pitches you've thrown this season have been swinging strikes. So that may in part explain Lannan's struggles. 實際上，當你今年球季投到現在已經投了561球，但是竟然只有24顆球讓打者揮空形成好球，想要成為一位成功的投手真的相當困難。這也許可以解釋一部分為何 Lannan 目前會投得如此掙扎的原因。 Here, though, is another explanation: Lannan has had no command of his pitches whatsoever. 不過這裡還有另一個解釋：Lannan到現在都還無法控制好他的投球。 I just re-watched the first three innings of yesterday's game, paying particular attention to catcher Wil Nieves' positioning as Lannan begins his windup. I'd say Lannan missed the target at least 80 percent of the time, and almost always left the ball higher in the zone than Nieves wanted it. 我剛才重新看了昨天比賽的前三局內容，並且特別注意當 Lannan 準備開始他的投球動作時捕手 Wil Nieves 手套所擺的位置。我必須說昨天比賽過程中 Lannan 至少有 80%以上的時間都找不到投球的準心，而且球的進壘點幾乎總是比 Nieves 所要的位置還來的高。 Nieves set up for almost every single pitch on the lower, outside corner of the plate. Several times, he motioned with his glove to "keep it down," almost patting the ground in the process. And almost every time, the catcher had to bring his glove up to retrieve Lannan's pitch. Nieves 幾乎每一球都設定為偏低、偏外角的位置，並不時用手套提醒 Lannan「把球路壓低」，甚至還在示意過程中輕拍地板。但幾乎每一次，Nieves 都必須把他的手套抬高才能接到 Lannan 的球。 For the first two innings, Lannan was able to get away with it. He either got guys to hit groundballs or took advantage of the spacious outfield at Sun Life Stadium to get flyouts. But it all came crashing down in the third inning, when the Marlins scored four runs and seized control of the game. 在前兩局，Lannan 還有辦法僥倖逃過因為球路偏高而可能造成的傷害；他讓打者不是打成滾地球出局，就是善加利用 Sun Life Stadium 外野寬廣的特性，讓打者只能擊成平凡的飛球被接殺。但到了第三局一切就徹底崩盤，這一局馬林魚一口氣得到4分，在這之後就此掌握住了整場比賽。 Hanley Ramirez's home run? Nieves called for a change-up and set up in his familiar, low-and-outside location. Lannan threw it right down the heart of the plate. Ronny Paulino's double to left? Nieves was set up on the inside corner; Lannan left it out over the plate. 關於 Hanley Ramirez 在第三局的那支3分打點全壘打呢？本來 Nieves 是配了一顆變速球，同時要求把球投到那令人覺得熟悉的，也就是偏低偏外側的位置，結果 Lannan 卻把這球投到了本壘板正中央。那 Ronny Paulino 左邊方向的二壘安打呢？ Nieves 這次則是決定配一顆內角球，但 Lannan 則是投到了外角。 This has been a frustrating five weeks for Lannan, a perfectionist if there ever was one. Even on the few occasions when he's gotten reasonable results, he's been upset at himself for not doing better, not pitching deeper into games, not avoiding the one big hit that's gotten him into trouble. 最近五個禮拜對 Lannan 這位完美主義者來說肯定覺得十分沮喪，如果他還是的話。即使過去有幾次他表現得不錯，他仍會因為沒能夠做得更好，或是不夠積極投入比賽、又或者是因為沒能避免被對手打出一支長打因此讓他陷入困境等等而對自己感到生氣。 Look, Lannan knows what he is. He's never going to be a strikeout pitcher. If he's going to make it long-term as a big-league pitcher, he's got to be able to locate his pitches -- especially his fastball -- better than just about anybody else in the game. 看吧！Lannan 很清楚他自己的定位。他永遠都不會變成一位三振型的投手。所以如果他想要能夠在大聯盟投得長久，他就必須比任何人都能夠更確實地把球投到準確的位置，特別是他的快速球。 For 2 1/2 seasons, he was able to do just that. For the last month, he hasn't. 過去兩年半的球季，他都能夠把球控好；然而最近一個月，他卻沒能做到這一點。 If he's able to rediscover that innate ability to throw a baseball 88 mph and hit a dime, he'll return to his previous form and be a successful pitcher for the Nationals. If he's not ... well, Lannan and the Nats are in trouble. 如果 Lannan 可以重新找回他在控球方面的天賦 -- 儘管他的球速只有88英里卻能夠準確命中一枚十分錢的硬幣，他將會重新恢復成過去的他，並且成為國民隊一名出色的先發；但如果他做不到...好吧，這下子不論是 Lannan 還是國民麻煩可就大了。原文： http://natsinsider.blogspot.com/2010/05/lamenting-lannans-labors.html#more -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.135.43.84 ※ 編輯: s9527206 來自: 140.135.43.84 (05/04 22:43)