Re: [閒聊] Lamenting Lannan's labors

看板Nationals作者kimifort (奇米堡)時間15年前 (2010/05/05 10:37)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串3/3 (看更多)

趁 leddy 大大應該在忙的時候趕快翻譯這樣就不會有人鞭我翻錯顆顆 ※ 引述《s9527206 (悠)》之銘言： : 這是上個月發表在 Frngraphs 的文章， : 這篇今天就先不翻了， : 有興趣的板友也可以看看:) : As has been well documented in this space, John Lannan has defied DIPS theory : for much of his career, posting a 3.98 career ERA in 438.2 career innings : despite a 4.83 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. Lannan doesn’t strike out many batters : (4.58 career K/9) and walks too many (3.41 BB/9) to be considered an elite : control pitcher. His only redeemable quality as a pitcher is his extreme : ground ball rate – 52.7% for his career to only a 29.0% fly ball rate. 如同之前在這裡所討論的，John Lannan 一直是 DIPS 理論（註1）的特例，在 Lannan 生涯 438.2 局的投球中繳出了 3.98 的 ERA，儘管 Lannan 有著很糟糕的 FIP 和 xFIP 指數－－分別為 4.83 和 4.65。Lannan 的 K/9 和 BB/9 是很差的 4.58 和 3.41，離控球型投手有相當的距離。他唯一可稱得上是投手的地方是他的 52.7% 的 GB%－－Lannan 的生涯 FB% 為 29.0%。 **註1 DIPS (Defense independent pitching statistics): 認為球隊失分會因野手的防守能力而有變化，因此在評量投手素質上會排除野手影響。較有名的是 FIP 指標。FIP 採納的投球資訊包括 HR、BB、K 和 IP。 : Through three starts, Lannan’s peripherals had dipped to a career low level : – in particular, his K/BB was a staggeringly low 0.78. Thanks to his : inability to control the strike zone or get batters out through any way but a : ground ball, Lannan’s FIP sat at 5.69 entering Wednesday night’s start : against Colorado. 但在這三場先發中，Lannan 向來不擅長的 DIPS 表現硬是飆向了生涯新低－－特別是 0.78 的 K/BB 值。Lannan 對 pitching outcome 的低掌控力讓他的 FIP 在禮拜三晚上與 Rockies 的對賽之前降至了 5.69。 : Things didn’t improve for Lannan, despite a Nationals victory. On the plus : side, Lannan only allowed one walk, but he also couldn’t find the strikeout, : either. Finally, allowing so many balls in play is catching up to Lannan. On : Wednesday, he allowed 11 hits in total, including one homer, and was pretty : much knocked around by the Rockies for the whole game. 儘管 Nats 贏得勝利，但 Lannan 的困境並沒有因此好轉。往好處想，Lannan 只投了一顆保送，雖然他沒投出半顆三振。擊球停留在場內的機率太高的隱憂一直尾隨著 Lannan。禮拜三的比賽中，Lannan 被敲出 11 支安打，其中一隻是 HR，是隊上表現較差的。 : Lannan just doesn’t have the type of stuff to make batters miss. His career : swinging strike rate of 5.8% is well below the league average, and that has : dropped to 3.7% so far this year. On Wednesday, he only drew 2 swinging : strikes in 106 pitches – only 1.8% swinging strikes. A pitcher cannot rely : on called strikes to induce strikeouts, and at the rate that Lannan is : drawing whiffs both for this season and for his career as a whole, he likely : won’t be able to draw enough strikeouts to be effective. Lannan 沒有很好的 stuff 引誘打者揮空。Lannan 的 5.8 % 的生涯 swinging strike% 在聯盟中排名相當低，而今年開賽至今更衰退到只有 3.7%。禮拜三的比賽中，106 球的投球只有 2 次打者揮空（約1.8%）。投手不可能只依靠 call strike 製造三振數，而今年的 Lannan 又有三振數過低的問題，數據上顯示 Lannan 在製造三振上可能面臨了相當的問題。 : The ridiculous amount of balls in play that Lannan allows is finally catching : up to him, it would appear. It is a long season, and there is time for Lannan : to revert to the form that added up to that 3.98 ERA the first few years of : his career. As Joe mentioned earlier this month, Lannan has been a bit of a : study in DIPS theory for his whole career. What we’re seeing now is much : closer to what DIPS theory would tell us to expect from a pitcher like Lannan. Lannan 誇張高的 BIP% 最終會拖垮他。賽季還很長，還有時間可以讓 Lannan 調適回生涯初期的那個 3.98 ERA 的 Lannan。如 Joe 日前提到的，Lannan 一直是 DIPS 理論在探討的個體。現在我們所期待見到的 Lannan 正與 DIPS 理論對於 Lannan-like 投手的期望模型逐漸靠攏。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.191.107 ※ 編輯: kimifort 來自: 140.119.191.107 (05/05 11:07)