San Diego Padres Top-15 Prospects of 2009: …
http://tinyurl.com/5movkh
For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use to
determine a player's rank and other frequently asked questions, please click
here. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive
before the season starts. If you disagree, you can make your case by
contacting me.
You can find a full listing of each team's top prospect list in the Top
Prospects of 2009 Archive Page. Each team will also have their Team Page
published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include
team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past
Baseball-Intellect articles, and links to some of the team's best fan sites.
We stay with the San Diego Padres...
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6. Allan Dykstra | 1b | B - L | A+ Lake Elsinore | Age - 20 | Drafted - Round
1 (23), 2008
Contact - 35 Now | 40 Future
Power - 55 | 60
Discipline - 45 | 50
Speed - 30 | 30
Defense - 40 | 45
Arm - 45 | 45
Instincts - 50 | 50
Final Grade - B-
Body Type - 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, so I'm not sure how much room he has left
to fill out
Scouting Report
I compiled a scouting report on Dykstra a little while back and one thing I
focused on was the way he planted his front foot. He employed a knee-twist
that I felt took away from some of his raw power in that his hips would open
up a little too soon and he didn't have as efficient a hip rotation as
possible.
Of course, the clip was based off video supplied by the MLB Scouting Bureau
and it was shot in 2007. As I noted heading into those breakdowns, take them
with a grain of salt because they don't tell you everything. They give you a
good idea of a player's swing, but you aren't always getting the whole
picture--especially when the sample size of a player's swing is so small and
the swings in the video aren't very good to begin with.
Fast forward to today, where I was fortunate enough to come across some video
by MLB.com that gave me a better idea of what Dykstra's swing looked like in
his junior season at Wake Forest. Dykstra in 2007 is on the left, while
Dykstra in 2008 is on the right.
Some of the adjustments:
1. He sets up with a wider base
2. He takes a longer stride
3. He plants his foot at a more closed angle. Dykstra is then able to enact a
more powerful hip rotation as he rotates on a firm front leg.
These adjustments do make me feel better about Dykstra's future. He doesn't
jump out at me as a sure-fire stud of a player, but I think he can certainly
hit at the big league level. The problem with Dykstra is that he really has
to hit for his bat to play at first base. He's going to walk and he'll hit
for power, but he's also going to struggle to hit for average, which will
hurt his OBP. He's going to strike out since he see's a ton of pitches--often
being too patient--and his swing is still on the long side.
Best Case Outcome - A slightly above average first baseman
More Likely Outcome - Average first baseman
===============================================================================
7. Will Inman | RHP | Double-A San Antonio | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 3,
2005
Fastball - 40 Now | 45 Future
Curveball - 55 | 60
Change-Up - 40 | 45/50
Control - 45 | 50
Command - 45 | 50
Pitchability - 55 | 60
Final Grade - B-
Body Type - short and lacking projection
Stuff
Fastball - typically sits between 88 and 92, but it plays up because of Inman's
deceptive delivery...it's really nothing more than an average pitch
Curveball - above average pitch thrown in the high 60's to low 70's...there is
a big difference in velocity between his curveball and fastball and that throws
off the timing of opposing hitters
Change-Up - improving pitch...used sparingly in the past, but he has had more
confidence in the pitch as he's improved his ability to maintain his arm speed
when throwing it
Mechanics - slow tempo with a tall-and-fall type wind-up...he could stand to
speed up his delivery and make better use of his momentum...his arm action is
long as he straightens his arm all the way back before it makes its way
through his arm circle
Inman does have good front side mechanics, as he rotates his upper body late
and maintains a firm glove out in front of his chest. His arm does recoil some
after release, which does raise his risk for injury.
By the Numbers - Known for his exceptional command, he really took a step
back in that department since reaching Double-A in 2007. In about 209
Double-A innings, Inman has had a BB% around 11, which is below average. His
K% has taken a hit as well, but it still remains in the very respectable 23 -
24 percent range. Inman is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which works well in
San Diego.
Mental Make-Up - Inman is said to have excellent composure on the mound and
should be able to deal with the ups and downs of pitching. His command
doesn't show it, but he likes going right after hitters.
Best Case Outcome - I don't have all that much faith in Inman, but you have
to respect his performance thus far, especially when he wasn't pitching to
the best of his capability. At best, he's a No. 4 starter, though playing in
San Diego might give him uptick in his numbers.
More Likely Outcome - Solid No. 5 starter or possible role out of the bullpen.
===============================================================================
8. Matt Antonelli | 2b | B - R | Triple-A Portland | Age - 24 | Drafted -
Round 1 (17), 2006
Contact - 45 Now | 50 Future
Power - 40 | 45
Discipline - 45 | 45
Speed - 50 | 50
Defense - 45 | 50
Arm - 50 | 50
Instincts - 50 | 50
Final Grade - B-
Body Type - strong build, little projection
Hitting
Antonelli's stock as a prospect really took a sharp drop last year as he
struggled his way to a line of .216/.335/.322/.657 at Triple-A Portland. This
was after a season in which he had an .879 OPS combined at two levels: A+
Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio.
Antonelli's patience and plate discipline stayed virtually the same...he
walked in 14% of his plate appearances, which was a small uptick better than
in 2007. His strikeout numbers also remained virtually unchanged at 16%. So
what happened?
Antonelli saw his BABIP drop to .251, which we can consider to be unlucky
though luck wasn't the only factor at play. He hit a large number of weak fly
balls, especially of the infield variety. Antonelli had an infield fly
percentage of 24, which was much higher than his prior two seasons. An
infield fly is just as good as a strikeout.
The causes of Antonelli's struggles were likely a combination of struggling
to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand as well as an inefficiency in his
swing mechanics. Centering the ball and making hard contact become much
tougher if you aren't seeing the ball well and that typically happens when a
player falls into a deep slump. He admitted he was struggling with his
mechanics and confidence toward the end of last year.
Antonelli also suffered from a drop off in power--his ISO dropped from .182
to .106. The interesting thing is that Antonelli--after being drafted--made
some adjustments to his swing that contributed to an increase in power.
Antonelli's draft video is on the left, while a clip of him in 2007 is on the
right. The angles are obviously different, but the difference between swings
is clearly evident.
See how he waits on the ball longer by adjusting his loading process and stride
into foot plant? The adjustments allowed him to keep his hands back and turn
them and the hips together on a firm front leg. He stopped lunging towards
the ball. As for what happened to Antonelli's swing in 2008, I can't say
because I haven't found any tape that shows a clear difference.
Overall, Antonelli really was never the above average to borderline all-star
some expected him to be, but he was certainly better than his numbers in 2008
indicated. He gets a mulligan for last season and hopefully the offseason
turns out to be the perfect remedy for him.
Best Case Outcome - Average everyday second baseman
More Likely Outcome - Slightly below average everyday second baseman or above
average utility player
===============================================================================
9. Wade LeBlanc | LHP | Triple-A Portland | Age - 24 | Drafted - Round 2, 2006
Fastball - 40 Now | 40 Future
Curveball - 45 | 50
Change-Up - 60 | 60
Control - 55 | 55
Command - 50 | 50
Pitchability - 55 | 55
Final Grade - B-
Body Type - strong, durable build
Stuff
Fastball - average at best fastball, sits between 85 and 89 on most nights...
has good movement which allows him to get away with mediocre velocity
Change-Up - his best pitch, comes in on the same plane as his fastball...
maintains arm speed, has good fade and gets a lot of swings and misses on the
pitch...the pitch is anywhere from 6 - 10 mph slower than his fastball
Curveball - he doesn't throw it all that much, but it's a potantial major
league average pitch...he can throw it for strikes and vary the amount of break
on the pitch, but it can flatten out on him at times and there is a tendency
for him to leave it hanging in the strike zone, where opposing hitters can
pounce
Mechanics - judging by his low velocity and big frame, it's clear LeBlanc
doesn't have very efficient mechanics in terms of throwing for velocity. He
repeats his mechanics well and his front side mechanics are solid, but his
tempo is slow and he doesn't scap load well.
LeBlanc misses a healthy amount of bats because of his change-up and sports
good control, but he has little margin for error in terms of his stuff. That
is going to make his adjustment to the majors more difficult than pitchers
with better stuff who can get away with more mistakes.
LeBlanc is also an extreme fly ball pitcher and prone to giving up the long
ball. He'll be helped a lot by playing in Petco, but it will hurt him
elsewhere.
Best Case Outcome - No. 5 starter
More Likely Outcome - Swing man or middle reliever who can go multiple
innings at a time
===============================================================================
10. Eric Sogard | 2b | B - L | A+ Lake Elsinore | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round
2, 2007
Contact - 50 Now | 55 Future
Power - 35 | 35/40
Discipline - 55 | 55
Speed - 45 | 45
Defense - 50 | 50
Arm - 45 | 45
Instincts - 55 | 55
Final Grade - B-
Body Type - short and somewhat stocky....does not have a projectable build
Scouting Report
Sogard doesn't have a ton of natural ability, but he exhibits a high baseball
IQ and he gets the most out of his ability. He doesn't have elite athletic
ability, but he displays excellent hand-eye coordination, which helps Sogard
possess great plate discipline and square up on the ball when contact is made.
Sogard has a short path to the ball and possesses a nice combination of bat
speed and quickness. He's got some pop, but a lack of physical strength
leaves his power potential limited.
Defense - solid...he makes the plays he gets to and he has plenty of arm for
second base
Speed - slightly below average though he is a solid baserunner
Best Case Outcome - Average everyday second baseman
More Likely Outcome - Somewhere between utility player and slightly below
average second baseman.
===============================================================================
11. Logan Forsythe | 3b/UTI | B - R | AA Tulsa | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 1
(46), 2008
I completed a scouting report on Forsythe a while back, which you can read here
. To recap what I said then, he showed outstanding plate discipline in college.
He doesn't have great power potential, but there is more left in the tank.
Forsythe is a hitter that uses his lower body to generate much of his power,
but a hamstring injury hampered some of that power. His power numbers during
his sophomore season were much better than his junior season.
The greatest strength Forsythe brings to the table is his versatility. He can
play a multitude of positions--some even suggest giving him a shot at
catcher. He should hit enough to be playable at third base, but if he can
show his defense is capable at second base, his value gets a major boost.
Grade - B-
===============================================================================
12. Blake Tekotte | CF | B - L | Eugene (SS) | Age - 21 | Drafted - Round 3,
2008
The center fielder from Miami doesn't have a lot of strength, but he possess
an athletic frame and has above average to plus speed.
He drifts his body forward and sweeps his bat through the hitting zone. His
swing plane is more "fliner" oriented rather than fly ball, and he should be
able to maintain a quality batting average, which will lead to a very
respectable OBP when combined with his batting eye.
One thing he does that bothers me, is he has a tendency to throw his hands at
the ball. So he ends up making contact too far out in front, meaning he's not
letting the ball travel deep and meaning his axis of rotation is centered
around his core. As I stated earlier, the goal should be to turn the hands
and hips together. The below clip should give you a better indication of what
I'm talking about. See how the hands get out in front
It's not a powerless swing--he's not lunging and he has a good loading of the
hands, but he's certainly not maximizing his power output.
His upside is that of an average center fielder, but he might want to work on
tweaking his swing where the hands and hips turn together.
Grade - B-/C+
===============================================================================
13. Jeremy McBryde | RHP | Single-A Fort Wayne | Age - 21 | Drafted - Round
26, 2006
I haven't seen McBryde pitch, so I'm going with numbers and second hand reports
on this one. His peripherals were excellent in the two most important areas:
strikeouts and control. He struck out a league-high (among pitchers with more
than 90 IP) 27.2% of the hitters he faced and walked just 4.1% of hitters faced
, which was good for 4th best. His fastball is easily his best pitch as it's
thrown between 92 and 95, but his slider and change-up are both below average
pitches that he needs to improve if he is to remain a starter. One number
that sticks out like a soar thumb is the .378 BABIP against. No doubt some
bad luck contributed to that number, but it's also a sign that he's too often
around the plate and not keeping players off his fastball. The BABIP is
concerning, but he's a breakout candidate if he can improve his secondary
options just a little.
Grade - C+
===============================================================================
14. Chad Huffman | LF | B - R | Double-A San Antonio | Age - 24 | Drafted -
Round 2, 2006
Huffman was one of my hitters to watch entering the 2008 season. He wasn't
necessarily a disappointment, but his production closely resembled his
Double-A line of 2007 (.793 OPS in 2007 vs. a .802 OPS in 2008). His power
took a sharp drop, posing just a .136 ISO. He still gets on base, but his
value is tied to his bat so he needs to get better production.
The silver inning for Huffman is his ability to mash lefties, which will almost
assuredly find him some role on a major league roster. In his career, Huffman
has a 1.081 OPS vs. LHP compared to an .817 OPS vs. RHP.
Grade - C+
===============================================================================
15. Jeremy Hefner | RHP | Single-A Fort Wayne | Age - 23 | Drafted - Round 5,
2007
For a scouting report on Hefner, you will need to subscribe to the
Baseball-Intellect Newsletter. You can use the form below. If you are
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