Re: [Fangraph] draft review 06-09
2008 1st Round: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
2. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State (Did not sign)
3. Jordy Mercer, SS, Oklahoma State
4x- Chase D’Arnaud, SS, Pepperdine
6x- Robbie Grossman, OF, Texas HS
20x- Quinton Miller, RHP, New Jersey HS
The club failed to sign second rounder Scheppers, who was re-drafted this
past season by Texas and has looked very good. The club did not skip a
beat, though, and Alvarez looks like an impact bat despite a slow start to
his pro career in ‘09. Third rounder Mercer has been hurt by career-low
BABIPs, including a .295 rate in ‘09, which led to a .255/.314/.400 line.
He did show some gap power this past season with 36 doubles and an ISO of
.144.
D’Arnaud has passed Mercer on the middle infielder depth chart. The
brother of Phillies catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud, Chase has gone
from a potential future back-up to a possible big-league starter in two
short years. With 35 steals and a walk rate of 14.5%, Grossman had an
“interesting” first full season when you couple those stats with an
alarming 36.4% strikeout rate. Miller had a modest first full year with
a 4.69 FIP and 6.39 K-rate in low-A ball.
══════════════════════════════════════
2007 1st Round: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
2. Duke Welker, RHP, Arkansas
3. Brian Friday, SS, Rice
You can thank the ‘07 and ‘06 drafts for helping to educate the
organization on how not to draft and develop players. Moskos was a poor
pick right from the get-go. He recovered a bit in ‘09 with a 4.41 FIP
but his strikeout rate has plummeted in the past few years from 9.24 to
6.36 to 4.65 K/9. Right-handed batters give him a fair amount of grief.
Welker’s command and control both deserted him in ‘09, while Friday
looks like he’s going to top out as a utility player.
══════════════════════════════════════
2006 1st Round: Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston
2. Mike Felix, LHP, Troy
3. Shelby Ford, 2B, Oklahoma State
28x- Rudy Owens, LHP, Arizona HS
Lincoln was an OK pick at the time, but he’s been slowed by injuries.
He could still end up as a solid player, but his low strikeout totals
suggest he won’t be an impact pitcher. Injuries and significant control
problems have ruined Felix’s potential, while Ford’s numbers plummeted
in ‘09, in part due to terrible BABIPs. Owens was a slick pick in the
28th round and is arguably the most talented southpaw in the system.
Jim Negrych (6th round) could end up as a solid utility player or platoon
infielder.
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