Rule 5 Draft Analysis
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Selected in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft
No. 4 Donald Veal, LHP, Pirates
Veal was drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2005 draft out of community college.
He was the Cubs Minor League Player of the Year in 2006, sharing the honor
with Rich Hill. A lot of young pitchers run into control issues early in
their careers. They are suddenly facing much tougher hitters than ever before
and the "country hardball" approach that got some of them through high school
suddenly does not work too well. They are often working on new off-speed
pitches or correcting mechanics, but the sentiment is generally that their
control and command will improve.
Well, Donald Veal has been wild from the jump and still is today. Even
repeating Double-A this year didn't help -- 81 walks in 145.1 IP while
repeating the league doesn't show any progress. Throw in his 18 wild pitches
and you can see the damage he has done to himself. Veal is not short on
velocity, he certainly has that going for him. But it is unusual for a
pitcher with such a long track record of control problems to suddenly begin
throwing strikes with a lot of regularity. In terms of what scouts like to
call "a good arm" -- a phrase that makes me laugh sometimes -- he might be a
good gamble, but I would be surprised to see him stick with any team that
might think of selecting him.
No. 8 Kyle Bloom, RP, Pirates
Named to the All-Hawaii Winter Baseball team after going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA
in 30 innings. He struck out 32, walked 11 and gave up 15 hits for West Oahu.
Bloom, 25, was 5-8 with a 4.19 ERA in 28 games, 22 starts, for Altoona in
2008. Pitched far better as a reliever rather then a starter this season. He
could stick with a team has a LOOGY.
No. 16 Eduardo Morlan, RHP, Brewers
Morlan was a 3rd Round pick in 2004 (91st overall). A 2008 Futures Game
selection and two-time league All Star, Morlan has had a steady climb through
the minors since 2004. A native of Havana, Cuba, Morlan has been a starter, a
closer, and a middle reliever and is just 22 years old. Long viewed as one of
the better relief prospects in the minors, Morlan was a part of the Matt
Garza/Delmon Young trade a year ago. Morlan's career has been marked by low
home run allowed rates, high strikeout rates, and good control. He had an
enlarged heart earlier in his career, but I am not aware that this has caused
him any trouble at all as a pro.
He is a good candidate to be a high pick in the Rule 5 Draft this year and
could be a very inexpensive but valuable addition to a MLB bullpen. Morlan
topped out at 91 mph in the Futures Game, but has been clocked as high as 97
in the past. He also features a slider around 79-80 mph. A flyball pitcher,
Morlan has not had significant trouble with the longball at this point in his
career. He is currently pitching well in the Puerto Rican Winter League.
Expect Morlan to change uniforms on Draft day.
Not Selected in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft
Greg Atencio, RP, Royals
A team that selects Atencio is banking that his 2008 season is not a fluke
control wise. Up until this season, he had the habit of serving up the long
ball when his fastball wasn't working but that wasn't the case this year. His
2008 stat line goes: 79.1 innings 85K/35BB with only four home runs
surrendered spread over both Double-A and Triple-A. He currently is
struggling in the Domincan Winter League but that shouldn't be enough to
scare off teams.
Jordan Brown, 1B, Indians
Brown was drafted in the 4th round in 2005. He was Carolina League Player of
the Year in 2006 and Eastern League Player of the Year in 2007. Brown came
into 2008 with a head of steam, coming off a rare feat -- winning back to
back Player of the Year Awards. However, this past season he recovered from a
knee injury early in the season and a foot injury more recently in Winter
Ball. He has shown gap power and the ability to hit for average throughout
his career. Brown is not a plus defender and lacks speed, which certainly
will not help his prospects of being taken in the Rule 5 Draft.
Still, there are worse hitters around Major League Baseball, and a team that
can afford to use him mostly in a pinch hitting role his first season could
find a useful big league bat. A contributor to the Player Journal features on
www.milb.com, perhaps Brown will one day post an entry of his experience
leading up to the Rule 5 Draft.
Brad Coon, OF, Angels
One of the few position players that really stands out that is unprotected
due to his speed. He recently left his Winter League team in the Dominican
Republic after going 13-for-50 (.250) in 17 games due to a lack of playing
time. 147 stolen bases over his minor-league career but he doesn't hit enough
to play everyday.
Bobby Wilson, C, Angels
Made a spot start this year in early April then returned in September when
the rosters expanded. Defensive minded catcher with the ability to drive the
ball. Would be ideal for a National League team. He hit .312/.386/.435 in 260
at-bats for Salt Lake this year.
J. B. Cox, RHP, Yankees
Cox was drafted in the 2nd Round in 2005. A closer at the University of
Texas, Cox has switched roles as a professional, working in middle relief. He
missed all of 2007 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Cox features a
fastball/slide/change mix and his slider has been rated as the best in the
Yankees system in the past. He relies on a sinking fastball and is more of a
pitch-to-contact type than a strikeout pitcher. His walk rate jumped when he
reached Triple-A this season, something that Cox claimed was due to a dead
arm phase.
Cox will likely be more of a sixth or seventh inning reliever with the
Yankees. As we have recently seen on the free agent market, developing
reliable relief arms within your own system can save your team a lot of
money. If Cox is not selected, I would imagine that he will see time in 2009
working out of the Yankees' pen.
Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Indians
Lofgren has garnered a laundry list of accolades during his professional
career. A 4th round pick back in 2004, Lofgren has been a Futures Game
selection, Carolina League Pitcher of the Year and two time mid-season All
Star. However, his performance during the 2008 regular season and recently
completed Arizona Fall League season will not win him any awards. Reports of
declining fastball command have lead to an increasing walk rate. His AFL
performance has been nothing short of hideous. Lofgren somehow allowed 19
hits and 18 walks in just 7 innings of work. Opponents hit .442 off him.
Reportedly, Lofgren has also been dealing with a family issue recently.
What happened here? Steve Blass disease? Lack of focus? Whatever the reason
for Lofgren's struggles, I wouldn't be surprised if some team thought they
had the answer. Perhaps a pitching coach up for a big challenge would like to
stash him in the back of the bullpen for a year in hopes that he could regain
his previous form.
Chris Lubanski, OF, Royals
Lubanski was drafted 5th overall out of high school in 2003, and was a member
of the Junior National Team in 2002. I recall a trip to Burlington, Iowa in
early 2004 that I took in hopes of seeing him and Mitch Maier (among others).
The first game I was there, Lubanski was not starting because the opposing
team (Quad Cities) had a lefty on the mound. You might imagine that lefty was
Glen Perkins. Nope. Instead, the 5th overall pick from the most recent draft
had to be protected from -- drum roll please -- Errol Simonitsch. Needless to
say I was disappointed.
Lubanski has had contact issues throughout his career. He doesn't have a lot
of speed and is not a standout defender. He still has raw power, probably the
most useful tool in his bag at this point. Also, he has seemingly been around
forever but he is only 23. He was a good candidate for Rule 5 last year, but
was obviously passed over. His performance this year did not raise his status
at all and I would be shocked to see him selected this year. He certainly has
not provided the return the Royals must have had in mind for a 5th overall
pick.
Chris Mobley, RP, Marlins
He repeated the Southern League again this year along with four innings in
Triple-A. Combined inning total for the season was 64.1 innings with a
72K/19BB ratio with only four long balls surrendered.
Jay Rainville, RHP, Twins
Rainville was drafted 39th overall in 2004. He had a 0.00 ERA in 54 IP his
senior year of high school. Rainville is another pitcher on the list who has
missed a whole season due to injury. Two-thousand and six was a lost year for
him due to a shoulder nerve injury. Just 23 years old, Rainville got his
first crack at Double-A this season and saw his fly ball tendencies catch up
to him. He served up 22 gopher balls in just 123 innings of work. Rainville
seems a long shot to be selected this season, as he most likely profiles as a
middle reliever in the Majors at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see
him start back at Double-A in 2009 to see if he could keep the ball down
better.
Rusty Ryal, 2B, Diamondbacks
Ryal hit .274/.334/.443/.777 with 22 Doubles, 16 HR, 66 RBI, 35 BB, 96 K in
128 games. This could be Dan Uggla Part 2 for the D-Backs. Ryal's defense is
much better then Dan Uggla's at this point in his career and is less error
prone. Ryal doesn't run that well but he has a tremendous work ethic . Ryal
struggled in the AFL this year, making the decision to leave him unprotected
very easy for the Diamondbacks. With the current lack of second base depth in
the D-Backs organization, they may regret leaving Ryal exposed.
Jeremy Slayden, OF, Phillies
Once part of the Georgia Tech high power offense along with Tyler Greene,
Matt Wieters, and Wes Hodges. A shoulder problem has limited him to left
field/DH. The contact skills improved after shorten his swing and a team
might take a chance on him that more power will come. Nate Spears, 2B, Cubs
Originally an Orioles draftee, Spears once again started out the 2008 season
in the Southern League with the Tennessee Smokies and hit .299 with seven
home runs and 51 RBIs in 115 games along with 22 doubles, five triples and 71
runs scored. He was awarded with a call-up to Iowa late in the season, where
he went 5-for-18 with five runs scored in five games. He then was sent to the
AFL. His contact ability and range at second is enough for a team to take a
chance on him in the Major League phase of the draft.
Tim Stauffer, RHP, Padres
Stauffer was the 4th overall pick in the 2003 Draft. He was drafted while
dealing with a shoulder injury. He was forthcoming about the injury when
negotiating with the Padres and signed for just $750,000. He had recurring
shoulder problems, eventually undergoing labrum surgery in May of 2008. Over
five years after signing, he has four MLB wins under his belt. He is now 26
and one has to wonder how much -- if anything -- he has left in his arm. This
is a classic case of how injuries can totally ruin a career and illustrates
how drafting pitchers with very high picks can sometimes backfire.
Matt Torra, SP, Diamondbacks
Torra's success this year was a result of him relying less on his fastball
and mixing in his changeup and curveball when he was behind in the count. Not
only did he improve his control, he also keep his pitch count down going
deeper into games doing what a back of the rotation starter should do: eat
innings. He struggled in Tuscon by serving up 13 HR's and not missing many at
bats. However, he still kept his control which he demonstrated very well in
the Southern League. His starts were evenly spread across AA and AAA to 19
games each with a inning total of 157.1 innings with only 31BB/96K.
Carlos Torres, RHP, White Sox
Saw him several times this year with Birmingham. Pretty good control and his
out pitch is a cutter. Did not fair to well in Triple-A in a limited role. He
was 9-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 101 innings this year, fanning 93 while walking 29
overall. White Sox sent him to this year's Arizona Fall League.
Wade Townsend, RHP, Rays
Townsend was drafted in 2004 and 2005, 8th overall both times. His
professional career can be summed up with one word: injuries. After leaving
Rice -- a program known for abusing arms -- Townsend tore his ulnar
collateral ligament while pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2005. He
spent the 2006 season rehabbing and had a poor showing when returning to
action in the South Atlantic League in 2007. Gopher ball tendencies and
excessive walks were becoming a trend by that time. He had another
disappointing season in 2008, lit up in three different leagues, again with
control issues and home runs allowed being serious problems. Townsend will
miss 2009 due to shoulder surgery, so his chance of being selected in the
Rule 5 Draft is highly unlikely. An avid poker player, Townsend has had a lot
of success when someone was dealing to him, but has not done much dealing of
his own on the mound.
Kevin Whelan, RHP, Yankees
Whelan was a 4th Round pick in 2005. A flyball pitcher who is very tough to
hit, Whelan's walk rates are likely the reason he is available for the Rule 5
Draft. A converted catcher, Whelan has only been a full time pitcher since
2005. He has started, closed and worked in middle relief as a professional.
He profiles as a power middle relief arm, maybe even a closer down the line
if he can harness his control a bit more. He has the odd combination of
allowing few homers and being a flyball pitcher. Whelan came to the Yankees
as part of the Gary Sheffield trade. His fastball reaches the mid 90's and he
also possesses a good splitter. He did have two DL stints this season, with
one being a forearm injury. However he was his usual self in the Arizona Fall
League, with strong ratios across the board, walk rate not included. I would
imagine that Whelan will be selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Some team should
gamble on his power arm, as risk/reward would certainly be in their favor.
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