[情報] Keith Law's 2011 Top Prospects: 51-75

看板Prospect作者 (Westy)時間14年前 (2011/01/29 18:35), 編輯推噓1(100)
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51. Billy Hamilton Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 9, 1990) Organization: Cincinnati Reds Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Rookie (Billings) Position: Shortstop 2010 ranking: UR The Reds like Hamilton so much that they brought him over to major league camp a few times last spring, even though he was just 19 and just starting to develop physically. Hamilton is a 70 or better runner with a plus arm (although he had some arm soreness early in 2010 that faded by the time he got into games) who has good instincts on the bases and is showing aptitude for hitting even though he comes out of the raw high school baseball environment of Mississippi. He's going to end up a four-tool player, lacking only power, but understands that his game will be slap-and-run, putting the ball on the ground, working the count to get on base, bunting to hits and putting his great speed to use. In the field, he can play shortstop but played some second in 2010 because of that arm issue. If the glove and bat develop as expected, he has a chance to be an All-Star at short, because players at that position who contribute on both sides of the ball are rare. 52. Carlos Matias Age: 19 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991) Organization: St. Louis Cardinals Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Prep Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: IE Matias' path to this list was an odyssey. He agreed to terms with the Red Sox before the 2009 season as a shortstop, but identity issues torpedoed that deal and he ended up working out for several clubs, including Seattle, Oakland and the Cardinals, as a pitcher several months later. The Cardinals felt comfortable after their own age investigation and gave him a $1.5 million deal that might turn out to be a bargain. Matias will sit in the mid-90s, touching 98, with an out-pitch curveball, a slider and a changeup that projects as plus. His arm action is simple and easy, and his command is outstanding for his age. I've got Shelby Miller in the top 10 on this list, but Matias has better raw stuff, and he could leapfrog Miller if his full-season debut in 2011 lives up to expectations. 53. Nick Franklin Age: 19 (DOB: Mar. 2, 1991) Organization: Seattle Mariners Bats: Both Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Clinton) Position: Shortstop 2010 ranking: UR Franklin came into the year as a good-glove shortstop who might have a chance to hit, and came out of it as a power-hitting middle infielder who might move to second base. That latter version is still a very good prospect, even if it's hard to figure where all that power comes from. Franklin is a switch-hitter, but did all his damage hitting left-handed. On that side, he overstrides badly and his back side collapses some, but he generates a lot of torque and has good extension, so there's power there even without keeping his weight back. Right-handed, he also overstrides but isn't as balanced; it's not a disaster swing and I'd give him another year before thinking about having him give up switch-hitting. He's a solid athlete with an average arm, not flashy at short, but has the instincts to make the plays there; if he moves to second base, it would likely be because the Mariners have someone else at short whose glove is plus and Franklin's bat looks like it will play at the keystone. I say a lot of players get good points for makeup from their organizations, but in Franklin's case, I can verify it. For example, I saw him come off the field after a round of live BP in spring training, grab the pitcher and tell him how he saw each of the guy's pitches. You won't see many 19-year-olds do that. I admit I'm not fully sold on his newfound power, but there's plenty here to make him a potential impact prospect. 54. Anthony Ranaudo Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 9, 1989) Organization: Boston Red Sox Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: College (LSU) Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: IE Ranaudo might have been the second pick in the draft had he been healthy all spring, but he tweaked his elbow at the start of his season at LSU and wasn't 100 percent again until about three weeks before the draft. Boston took him in the sandwich round and watched him dominate in the Cape Cod League all summer, after which the Red Sox gave him a bonus commensurate with a top-five overall selection. Ranaudo is a horse, built for 220-240 innings a year, and has the aggressive approach to pitching you want to see in a potential front-line guy. He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball at 90-93, reaching back for 94-95 when he needs it, but hitters do not pick up the ball out of his hand and he gets swings and misses up in the zone with the pitch as if it was 97 with life. His curveball is solid-average now, projecting as above- average to plus, 79-82 with varying shape, and he's got a show-me changeup that will probably be a developmental priority for him in 2011. His arm action was unrestricted on the Cape and he was getting great extension out in front; the fact that Boston gave him all that money is a sign that his elbow is in good shape. He might be more of a strong No. 2 than an ace, but he should move as quickly as his arm's health will allow. 55. Matt Dominguez Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 28, 1989) Organization: Florida Marlins Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (Jacksonville) Position: Third Base 2010 ranking: 62 Dominguez is the best-fielding third base prospect I've seen since I saw Ryan Zimmerman in college, and as good as Zimmerman is, Dominguez might be better than the Nationals' franchise player was at the same age. And Zimmerman's offensive progression in the majors offers some hope for Dominguez, who has stagnated a little because he's primarily a fastball hitter who struggles badly against offspeed stuff. He has good bat speed, but glides as he swings, so he cuts off his power while also reducing his chances to adjust to a breaking ball or changeup. Right now, he projects as a regular who saves 12-15 runs a year at a minimum with his glove, which means if he makes any positive changes at the plate, he's an All-Star. 56. Jason Kipnis Age: 23 (DOB: Apr. 3, 1987) Organization: Cleveland Indians Bats: Left Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (Akron) Position: Second base 2010 ranking: UR Cleveland took a risk by converting Kipnis to second base, but the potential reward was high as Kipnis wasn't clearly a regular if he stayed in the outfield -- he was probably a tweener because he wasn't quite good enough in center but his bat didn't appear to profile in a corner. He's already playable at second with a chance to be better than just average; his main deficiency right now is the pivot on the double play, and he's surprised Cleveland with his athleticism at the position. He starts his swing with a useless bat-wag behind his shoulder, but gets into position in time to hit and whips the bat through the zone with enough hip rotation and upper body strength that he should hit for average power. He's shown good command of the strike zone as well, drawing walks at a consistent clip at all three stops in pro ball. At worst he's just an everyday guy at second, but there's All-Star potential here as well. 57. Travis d'Arnaud Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989) Organization: Toronto Blue Jays Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Dunedin) Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: 99 D'Arnaud was -- and still is -- the sleeper from the Roy Halladay trade, a player the Blue Jays coveted since high school and finally landed in the biggest trade of Alex Anthopoulos' career. He's a complete prospect, a plus defender across the board with future plus power and a chance to hit as long as he can stay healthy. On defense, he's a true catch-and-throw guy with a 60 arm, great hands and good rapport with pitchers. His swing is easy and repeatable and he'll show plus raw power in BP now that he's started to fill out. His 2010 season was a slight disappointment because of minor back trouble that kept him off the field, but he's changed his conditioning routine to increase his core work in the hopes of preventing a recurrence. Look for him to break out in New Hampshire this year once his back is healthy and he's out of the heavy air of the Florida State League. 58. Grant Green Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 27, 1987) Organization: Oakland Athletics Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Stockton) Position: Shortstop 2010 ranking: 93 I think Green's stock in the industry has taken a hit because of somewhat unrealistic expectations, but he had a very solid season with the stick and still has the athletic ability and intelligence to figure it out at shortstop, even though he has a ways to go. Green has arm strength and his feet are quick enough for short, but neither his footwork nor his hands are fluid right now. His throwing has been inconsistent since his junior year at USC, and he's better on quick-reaction plays than on slower- developing ones. He could slide to third base, which has been a problem for Oakland since Eric Chavez started having an affair with the disabled list, or to second base, where he'd probably be among the better defenders in the league, with center field always there as a fallback option. Green showed surprising power in the Cal League, even though he tends to shift his weight early and has a flat, slashing stroke that seems more contact-oriented. I'd like to see him walk more and use his speed more on the bases, but the priority for Green in 2011 is to get his feet, hands and arm all working at the same time at shortstop so he can be a star at one of the toughest positions to fill on the diamond. 59. Yasmani Grandal Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 8, 1988) Organization: Cincinnati Reds Bats: Switch Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Rookie (AZL Reds) Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: IE Grandal was one of the steals of the first round of the 2010 draft, as an advanced defensive catcher who rakes from the left side and could develop into a legitimate switch-hitter. Grandal is plus across the board behind the plate, receiving well, throwing well and accurately (with sub-1.9 pop times) and calling his own games since high school. His left-handed swing is noticeably better than his right; left-handed, he transfers his weight more consistently, rotates his hips well, and has great follow-through. Right-handed, he's more linear, cuts off any loft by turning his wrists over and doesn't have the same bat speed. Even if he never hits left-handed pitching well, he has more than enough going for him with his glove and his left-handed swing to be an everyday catcher in the big leagues, and he's only a year or so away. 60. Drew Pomeranz Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 22, 1988) Organization: Cleveland Indians Bats: Right Throws: Left Top '10 Level: College (Ole Miss) Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: IE Pomeranz looks like a No. 1 starter -- 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds -- although concerns about his arm action and command push his ceiling down below that tier. Pomeranz has pitched in the 89-94 range and should hold that velocity even when working every fifth day. His out pitch is a mid- to upper-70s curveball with excellent depth, and unless his changeup improves the curve will be his weapon against left- and right-handed hitters. He has an unusual arm action, separating his hands high but then bringing his pitching hand straight back, showing the ball to the centerfielder, before quickly flipping his hand over and bringing his arm forward quickly; there's a lot of extra movement involved, and that may be why his command has always been fringy at best. He's big, left-handed, throws fairly hard and has a potential knockout pitch in the curveball, which adds up to a valuable mid-rotation starter, but my gut feeling is that command will always be an issue. 61. Mike Minor Age: 22 (DOB: Apr. 9, 1988) Organization: Atlanta Braves Bats: Right Throws: Left Top '10 Level: Majors Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR Minor doesn't have the upside of most guys on this list, but is here because he's major league-ready and could contribute to the parent club this year as its fifth starter. Minor will show four pitches, nothing plus but nothing worse than fringe- average, and on days when his curveball shows up he'll have solid weapons against left- and right-handed hitters. His best pitch remains his changeup, a pitch for which he has great feel and good arm speed, and while his command in 2010 was very inconsistent, he never had trouble with command or control in the past and that should be a strength for him going forward. Minor's velocity spiked this spring after he put on some muscle in an offseason workout program, but it didn't last, and by August he was back down to solid-average and even complained openly about being tired, which didn't win him many fans in the Atlanta clubhouse. Look for Minor to pitch at 88-92 and throw quality strikes with three or four pitches, which would make him a potential mid-rotation starter once he's strong enough to go a full season. 62. Hank Conger Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 29, 1988) Organization: Los Angeles Angels Bats: Switch Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Majors Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: 52 Conger is an offensive catcher with a lot of potential as a switch-hitter, who just needs to show his body can hold up for 120-130 games. He's fringy behind the plate, bringing good arm strength but slow feet and a lot of bulk that limits his receiving; he'll need to work to avoid getting any bigger, which would probably force him off the position. At the plate, it's all small positive steps for Conger, who increased his walk rate for the second year in a row while moving up a level. His swings on both sides of the plate work well, longer on the left side with more loft, more balanced and mechanically clean on the right. He showed a weird platoon split this year, making contact and drawing walks against left- handed pitching, but with a low BABIP that pushed his average under .200 a year after he hit .316 against lefties. Conger could step in and catch every day for any number of clubs right now, and if he doesn't beat out Jeff Mathis for a roster spot, there's something very wrong with the Angels' decision-making process. 63. Tony Sanchez Age: 22 (DOB: May 2, 1988) Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Double-A Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: 82 Sanchez's regular season ended early when he took a pitch off the jaw, but he returned to action in the Arizona Fall League and showed no fear in the batter's box. He had a few hiccups with throwing in the AFL but it doesn't appear to be a permanent issue for him, and he's steadily improved his blocking and receiving skills. At the plate, he's firmed up his front side since signing with Pittsburgh, but needs to work on keeping his weight back; when he does so, he's got above-average raw power and would have a chance to hit for average at the same time, making him a fringe All-Star at that position. He's an extremely hard worker who ended up at Boston College without a scholarship but improved his body to the point where he not only made the team, but became its best player. I wouldn't bet against him at this point. 64. Simon Castro Age: 22 (DOB: Apr. 9, 1988) Organization: San Diego Padres Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AAA (Portland) Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: 46 Castro jumped two levels in 2010 and had a solid but unspectacular year in the pitchers' paradise of San Antonio -- his ERA was almost a run higher and his strikeout rate was 44 percent lower on the road in Double-A. He'll pitch with a grade 50-55 fastball, 89-92 some games -- a tick higher in other games -- with an above-average slider at 81-85 that he commands very well. His change is fringy without much action, although he had only a moderate platoon split in the Texas League. Castro is tall and loose but not a great athlete, and his best chance to remain a starter may be by maximizing the deception from his gangly delivery; his upside in the rotation is as a No. 3, although he could be a very strong two-pitch reliever, with the fastball and slider both playing up. 65. Yonder Alonso Age: 23 (DOB: Apr. 8, 1987) Organization: Cincinnati Reds Bats: Left Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Majors Position: First base 2010 ranking: 76 Alonso broke his hamate bone in June of 2009, and sure enough, through the first three months of 2010 between Double-A and Triple-A he hit for almost no power -- on July 1, he had just six home runs and a slugging percentage of .361. During the next two months, until his recall on Sept. 1, Alonso hit .347 with nine homers and slugged .592, all against Triple-A pitching. He's a patient hitter who has above-average pull power and could develop plus power as he ages; his offensive weakness remains left-handed pitching, although he was slightly better in that regard in 2010. He's limited to first base, where he'll be adequate but probably won't win any fielding awards. Now that he has his strength back, however, he's primed to step in for someone in the big leagues -- although the presence of the reigning NL MVP makes it appear that it won't be for Cincinnati. 66. Trey McNutt Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 2, 1989) Organization: Chicago Cubs Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Double-A Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR The Cubs took McNutt in the 32nd round in 2009 out of Shelton State Junior College near Tuscaloosa, Ala. That alone is unusual -- few 32nd-round picks reach the majors -- but McNutt's path into the Cubs' organization is even stranger than that. The club's area scout for the deep South (including Alabama) quit during the spring, leaving the club scrambling for coverage as the season wound down, and to make matters worse the juco schedule ends much earlier than the Division I schedule does. Shelton State's head coach, former Astros and Red Sox pitcher Bobby Sprowl, called scouts that May to let them know he had a freshman pitcher whose velocity was starting to come on -- an unselfish move, since McNutt had another year of eligibility at his school -- but the Cubs didn't have a guy covering the area at that moment. As it turns out, Shelton State won the state juco championship and headed for the NJCAA World Series in Grand Junction, Colo., where the Cubs' northwest area scout, Al Geddes, saw McNutt at 89-93 with a pretty good curveball, but they had virtually no background info on the kid and couldn't take him in a high round, instead taking that flier in the 32nd round with the intention of following him over the summer. Two more Cubs scouts (Lucas McKnight and Jim "Crawdaddy" Crawford) saw him in June and July as he ticked up to 90-94 and the curveball improved; Crawford realized he could sign McNutt for under the slot limit for guys taken after the fifth round, giving him $115,000. In McNutt's first outing in the Arizona Rookie League after signing, he sat 95 in his first inning of work. A year later, McNutt was sitting 91-95 and touching 97 mph with an improved changeup, smoother mechanics than he had in college, and a bona fide out pitch in the curveball. There's still some thought he could be a reliever, but this is a starter package from body to arm to repertoire. And it's the result of one coach who put his player before himself and some old-fashioned scouting. 67. Chris Sale Age: 21 (DOB: March 30, 1989) Organization: Chicago White Sox Bats: Left Throws: Left Top '10 Level: Majors Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: IE The White Sox say they want to make Sale a starter, and he was a full-time starter for Florida Gulf Coast last spring, but the consensus around the game is that he'll end up a reliever -- and potentially a good one -- for the next few years. Sale will sit in the mid-90s in relief from a very tough arm angle, barely above sidearm, with a lot of deception that should make him death to left- handed hitters. He's shown he can turn over a changeup from that slot but his slider tends to flatten out on him if he doesn't lift his slot. Sale is tall but very slight for a pitcher, and his arm action is much better suited to the bullpen, as most scouts don't see it holding up for 180 innings a year. In relief, however, he can contribute right now to the bullpen of the preseason favorites in the AL Central. 68. Gary Sanchez Age: 18 (DOB: Dec. 2, 1992) Organization: New York Yankees Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Single-A Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: UR The Yankees are loaded with prospects who currently catch, and while they probably won't all pan out at the position, it's a good area in which to have a surplus. Sanchez is the furthest away, and has a chance to replace Jesus Montero at the top of the Yankees' prospect rankings soon. The two are similar overall; Sanchez has a better chance to catch with a slightly lower ceiling at the plate. He's going to be very physical, but has plenty of agility behind the plate with an above-average arm and quick release. At the plate, his swing is loose and quick and he keeps his weight back well, giving him the potential to hit for both average and power. There's still a lot of projection involved in that evaluation, and he's barely 18 years old at the moment, but his youth and distance from the majors are the only things keeping him out of the top echelon of this list. 69. Wilin Rosario Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 23, 1989) Organization: Colorado Rockies Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (Tulsa) Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: UR Hits when healthy; isn't often healthy. An inflamed left wrist ruined Rosario's 2009 season, and a torn ACL ended his 2010 season in early August, potentially putting him out until May of 2011 as well. Rosario has a strong and accurate arm, nailing 44 percent of runners in his 189 career games behind the plate, so if his knee permits he will stay behind the plate. His power alone would make him a serious prospect given his position; in just 73 games in the hitter-friendly Texas League he smacked 19 home runs, and I think he could hit 30 in Coors Field if he could play something near a full season. His swing is all hips and biceps and a big finish, without much weight transfer, and he's a see-ball-hit-ball guy with just 80 unintentional walks in 1,169 career PA. But the power is legit, and catchers with strong throwing arms and 25-HR power at sea level are valuable guys. 70. Dee Gordon Age: 22 (DOB: Apr. 22, 1988) Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers Bats: Left Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (Charlotte) Position: Shortstop 2010 ranking: 39 Gordon needs to get stronger, period. Almost everything else is there for him to be a plus shortstop who hits, gets on base, and wreaks havoc with his speed, but he doesn't have a big frame and has to do whatever he can to become strong enough to hit better fastballs with authority and to hold up for a 162-game season. He's wiry now and has a quick line-drive stroke, and he's strong enough for most minor league pitching. His Double-A line was held down in 2010 because it was a two-level jump for him from 2009. In the field, he's quick, rangy, with an above-average arm, and his reads on balls improved this year. His dad, Tom, has a different body type -- shorter but with broader shoulders -- while Dee is slightly taller but leaner, and a lot of scouts question his long-term strength and durability. The speed, glove and arm are way too much to ignore, and if the Dodgers let his body catch up to his level in the minors he's got a good chance to become a leadoff hitter at a position of chronic need. 71. Ben Revere Age: 22 (DOB: May 3, 1988) Organization: Minnesota Twins Bats: Left Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Majors Position: Center field 2010 ranking: UR Revere is a major league-ready center fielder with a chance to hit for average and add value through baserunning, despite having two below- average tools. Revere is a 70-80 runner who covers a ton of ground in center through his speed, and his reads have improved substantially over the three-plus years he's been in the Twins' organization. He still has a well below-average arm that will probably require middle infielders to head into short center for cutoff throws, but the added range Revere provides should compensate. At the plate, Revere's swing is as short as it gets, slappy and flat, and the way he meets the ball out front means he won't have power, but he has good hand-eye coordination and will make enough contact to have value as a hitter. I don't see Revere as a star, but that kind of defense makes him a valuable regular. 72. Zack Cox Age: 22 (DOB: May 9, 1989) Organization: St. Louis Cardinals Bats: Left Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Arizona fall league Position: Third base 2010 ranking: IE Pro scouts' early reviews from the Arizona Fall League on Cox were mostly unkind, both to his defense and his potential to hit for power, although I think his nearly five-month layoff from facing live pitching hurt his stock as well. Cox is an advanced hitter, with strong hands and wrists, and worked last offseason to cut down on his swing in response to criticism that he struck out too much. He can turn on a ball on the inner half, which you'll see in BP from him, but right now sprays the field with line drives during games. He has a good sense of the strike zone and should be able to translate that into a shift in his swing when he gets a ball in that he can drive. His lower half isn't ideal for third base and he's a below-average runner; his feet work fine and he has a plus arm, so it's a question of his ultimate range. I get the scouts' criticisms, but those who have history with the kid from his time at Arkansas and in the Cape Cod League can vouch for the potential that wasn't always evident in Arizona. 73. Dellin Betances Age: 22 (DOB: Mar. 23, 1988) Organization: New York Yankees Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (Trenton) Position: Starting Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR Betances has a big body and a big arm, but still has a lot of work to do as a pitcher. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, he'll hit 96-97 and pitch in the low 90s, and has a solid-average changeup with both good arm speed and fade. His curveball is wildly inconsistent; I saw it well below- average, and have talked to scouts who saw it the same and scouts who saw it as a grade 55 or better pitch. Despite his size, Betances doesn't get great extension out front and his early release point could be behind the trouble I saw him have with the curve. He's not a great athlete or fielder. He is also only 22 with just shy of 300 innings total in three-plus years in pro ball, so time is on his side for him to improve his feel or his body control or for the Yankees to continue refining his delivery. There's No. 1 starter potential here, but the probability isn't there yet. 74. Oswaldo Arcia Age: 19 (DOB: May 9, 1991) Organization: Minnesota Twins Bats: Switch Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton) Position: Right Field 2010 ranking: UR Talk about a guy coming out of nowhere. Arcia screwed up one of his knees in an on-field collision and missed a chunk of the 2009 season, but tore apart the Appalachian League this past year and has jumped onto the pro scouting radar. Arcia has a very classic left-handed swing and nearly mimics it from the right side, although he did most of his damage (.398/.455/.760) hitting left-handed. The raw power is enormous, again better left-handed, where it's to all fields. He's a 55-60 runner who won the Twins over by improving his conditioning while rehabbing the knee, and he has a plus arm to let him stay in right field once he outgrows center. The Twins have developed a lot of players in recent years, but not many with this kind of raw power and overall ceiling. 75. Nick Castellanos Age: 18 (DOB: March 4, 1992) Organization: Detroit Tigers Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Rookie Position: Third base 2010 ranking: IE Castellanos received the highest bonus ever given to a player taken after the first round when Detroit gave him $3.45 million to sign in August, and I think he'll prove to be well worth it. He played shortstop in high school but the Tigers moved him to third, his most likely ultimate position, right after he signed. He has very strong hands and wrists and shows surprising power for his age. He has a very classic swing with excellent hip rotation and good loft, and I expect doubles power early on with home runs developing as he reaches his 20s. He's athletic for his size with plenty of arm for third base and should have no problem staying there long-term. He's a good candidate to shoot up to the top 25 if he has the full-season debut I expect in 2011. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.71.119

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文章代碼(AID): #1DG-rO7P (Prospect)
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