[情報] Keith Law's 2011 Top Prospects: 76-100
76. Brody Colvin
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 14, 1990) Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Lakewood)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Colvin spurned the local school, LSU, to sign with Philadelphia in 2009,
and has since emerged as their No. 2 pitching prospect behind Jarred
Cosart. Right now, he's all about velocity/stuff while his command still
lags behind.
Colvin will pitch at 91-95, losing a little velocity from the stretch; he
accelerates his arm very quickly and gets good extension out front, so the
ball appears to come quickly out of his hand toward the hitter. His
downward-fading changeup, about 10 mph slower than his fastball, is ahead
of his upper-70s slider, which has some tilt but tends to flatten out on
him. Colvin cuts himself off in his delivery and struggles to command the
ball to his glove side as a result; it could also explain the trouble
getting consistent break on the slider.
He's crude, but strong with a very live arm, with the upside of a No. 2
starter if that breaking ball becomes an above-average weapon for him.
77. Alex Torres
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 8, 1987) Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Bats: Left Throws: Left Top '10 Level: AA (Montgomery)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Torres may turn out to be the prize of the Scott Kazmir deal even though
his listed height of 5-foot-10 is generous.
He has three above-average pitches right now in a 91-95 mph fastball with
a ton of life, a plus curveball with tight rotation and an above-average
changeup. He has two things working against him, however: his height and
his command. The former is less of an issue for a pitcher who can move or
sink the ball, and Torres can, with a good ground-ball rate in Double-A.
The latter is a bigger problem, as Torres is 22, and 2010 was the first
time he managed to walk fewer than a man every two innings.
He has the stuff to start, but if the command isn't there he could turn
into (pre-injury) Mike Gonzalez instead.
78. Tyler Skaggs
Age: 19 (DOB: July 13, 1991) Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats: Left Throws: Left Top '10 Level: A (South Bend)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
The Diamondbacks didn't get a great haul for Dan Haren, but they did land
Skaggs as the player to be named later, making him the best part of the
package coming back to Arizona.
He already projects as a solid No. 3 starter, trending north of that.
He'll pitch right now with an average fastball and shows the ability to
throw a swing-and-miss curveball that just needs better velocity; both
pitches should improve as he fills out his projectable frame. His changeup
is similarly solid-average now, projecting better, and his stuff plays up
because he's got a high front side in his delivery that provides a lot of
deception.
He may not come quickly, with a good three years of development ahead of
him, but you have to love a left-hander with control and a chance for
three pitches.
79. Christian Yelich
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1991) Organization: Florida Marlins
Bats: Left Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Single-A
Position: 1B/Outfield 2010 ranking: IE
The Marlins broke a couple of clubs' hearts with this surprise pick in the
first round, as a number of teams thought Yelich would fall to them after
the MLB Scouting Bureau put a very low grade on him coming into the
spring. Yelich sets up back in the box with his hands up and lets the ball
travel well, with pretty quick hands but a slightly flat finish that may
cut off some of his power.
He's an above-average runner who played first base in high school because
of a bizarre throwing motion that the Marlins believe they have fixed.
He's a good enough athlete to play center and a good enough pure hitter to
profile in a corner. In a depleted Florida system, he should be the next
breakout star.
80. Chris Carter
Age: 24 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1986) Organization: Oakland Athletics
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AAA (Sacramento)
Position: Outfield 2010 ranking: 33
Carter's 2010 was a year of slow starts, one in Triple-A and another in
the big leagues, raising a question along the way of how much contact
he'll ultimately make against major league pitching.
Unlike teammate Michael Taylor, Carter didn't lose his swing in 2010, so
his projection hasn't dropped by much even with the off-year. He still has
plus raw power and showed in Triple-A that he'll run deep counts, so even
if he settles in as a .240 hitter because of low contact rates, he should
provide value through his OBP and slugging.
First base is locked down by Daric Barton at the moment, so the A's will
continue to work him out in left field, although DH remains his most
likely destination. His major league tenure began with an 0-for-33 streak
featuring 13 punchouts and just one walk, but he did go .342/.422/.605 in
his final 45 plate appearances against late-September pitching if you're
looking for a sign of hope.
81. Jurickson Profar
Age: 17 (DOB: Feb. 20, 1993) Organization: Texas Rangers
Bats: Switch Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Spokane)
Position: Shortstop 2010 ranking: UR
Profar has been getting rave reviews since appearing in the Rangers'
instructional league in September of 2009, a few months after they broke
with the rough industry consensus and made him a position player instead
of putting him on the mound.
Profar is toolsy, not off-the-charts like fellow Rangers farmhand Luis
Sardinas, but is more mature than most 17-year-olds and shows outstanding
instincts that separate him from his peers. Profar is an average runner
who projects to stay at shortstop as he fills out, with great hands, a
plus arm and outstanding reads for positioning and first-step reactions.
At the plate he's a natural hitter with good hand-eye coordination, and
should grow into average power as he fills out.
He's a long way off, but comfortably projects as an above-average regular
with a lot of star potential.
82. J.P. Arencibia
Age: 25 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1986) Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Majors
Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: UR
Arencibia does two things well -- throw and hit home runs -- and given the
state of catching in the majors right now, that makes him a pretty good
prospect.
He's not a disciplined hitter, doesn't work the count, and tends to pull
off the ball because he's trying to pull it out, but he'll run into enough
mistakes every year to make up for the low OBP. Behind the plate, he's
worked to maximize his agility but he's held back by slow feet, which also
limit some of the gains from his arm strength. He debuted with a bang,
hitting two home runs, a single and a double in his first major-league
game, and then went 1-for-30 in irregular playing time. (I'm not sure the
mishandling of Arencibia is Exhibit A in why Cito Gaston needed to go, but
it's near the top of the pile of screw-ups from a manager who was
overmatched by the task at hand.)
I don't see Arencibia as a star, but there's enough bat that he can play
every day while the Jays hope that either Travis d'Arnaud or Carlos Perez
becomes an above-average replacement for him in two or three years.
83. Matt Harvey
Age: 21 (DOB: Mar. 27, 1989) Organization: New York Mets
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: College (UNC)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Harvey's college career was strange: Awful for two springs and two
summers, he showed up for his junior year with 4-5 extra mph, good sink on
the fastball and the cleanest delivery he'd ever had, going from a Day 1
afterthought to a top-10 pick.
He hit 97 repeatedly this spring and would pitch at 91-94 deep into games,
driving the pitch down in the zone to generate a lot of ground balls. His
best secondary pitch is a 79-84 mph changeup with some fading action, and
he'll show a curve and slider. His arm works better than it did before
2010, but he still lands on a stiff front leg and drifts rather than
driving off the rubber.
The fact that he was able to implement changes to his delivery before
gives me hope that he can continue to improve it with the Mets' coaches
helping him, and he did at one point show a curveball that projected as
plus, so there's reason to believe he can stick as a starter. ... But 95-
97 at the knees with a good changeup would be a pretty dominant reliever,
too.
84. Chris Owings
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 12, 1991) Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (South Bend)
Position: Shortstop 2010 ranking: UR
Owings is a highly instinctive player with a potential plus glove at short
and an impact bat, all of which is several years away.
In the field, he's got great lateral range despite a lack of running
speed, reads the ball very well off the bat, and has a 70 arm. His main
weakness is coming in on the ball in front of him, something he'll have to
improve to stay at the position.
At the plate, he has surprising power for his size, more noticeable in BP
right now where he'll drive the ball out to right-center, and the short
path to the ball should help him maintain good contact rates. His walk
rate was unacceptable, but he was just 18 in a full-season league, turning
19 only after the injury ended his summer.
This is an aggressive ranking but there is a lot to like in Owings for the
future.
85. Jordan Walden
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 16, 1987) Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Majors
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Walden's 2009 season was ruined by a forearm strain that probably also
explains his sudden loss of command that season, but in 2010, he moved to
the bullpen and showed himself to be a potential front-line closer. He's
always had arm strength, but in relief was touching triple digits, and
gets so much downhill plane on the pitch that hitters have to try to lift
a bowling ball to square it up. He made a lot of progress with his slider
this year to the point that it flashed plus, but continues to work off the
fastball, leaving the slider as the put-away pitch.
The Angels feel like he took another step forward when he reached the
majors and Mike Scioscia and Rob Butcher could work with him on driving
that fastball down in the zone, and a reliever who throws even 97-98 with
that kind of sink and a swing-and-miss breaking ball could have a few
vintage Troy Percival or Brad Lidge seasons in him.
86. Matt Davidson
Age: 19 (DOB: Mar. 26, 1991) Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Visalia)
Position: Third Base 2010 ranking: UR
I had Davidson as a first-round bat in 2009, but slow feet and the
likelihood he'd move from third base to first pushed down his stock to the
point that Arizona grabbed him in the sandwich round. He's already passed
first-rounder Bobby Borchering on the Arizona depth chart, improving his
defense to the point that Arizona has no doubt he'll remain at the hot
corner.
Davidson has one of my favorite right-handed swings in the minors, with a
short path to the ball, great balance, and a willingness to let the ball
travel on him. He'll show big raw power in BP and already has at least
average power in games.
If third base is Davidson's permanent position and he hits for the average
and power I expect from, he's at least an above-average regular. Odd stat
note: He drew just one walk from Opening day to May 6, then drew 39
unintentionals in 316 PA until he was promoted to high-A in August.
87. Christian Friedrich
Age: 23 (DOB: July 8, 1987) Organization: Colorado Rockies
Bats: Right Throws: Left Top '10 Level: Double-A
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: 36
I love Friedrich's four-pitch mix and aggressiveness, but 2010 marked the
second year in a row in which he missed time with a tender elbow, and I'm
concerned about his ability to go through a full season in a rotation.
When he's right, Friedrich will pitch with a 55 fastball, touching 93-94,
with a hammer 12-6 curveball, a cutter and a changeup. He's tall but not
that physical, and he has a long arm action which gets his back elbow up -
- all potential warning signs. A four-pitch lefty with multiple weapons
has to be a starter until his arm proves otherwise, and 2011 will be a
huge year for him in proving he can develop into a 32-start-a-year pitcher
for Colorado.
88. Andrew Brackman
Age: 25 (DOB: Dec. 4, 1985) Organization: New York Yankees
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (Trenton)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Brackman started out slow in 2010, but it was a steady build over the
course of the year, with improvement each month, even with a midyear
promotion to Double-A. His velocity and command steadily increased, and by
the second half he was pretty close to where he was before originally
hurting his elbow.
I say "pretty close" because the Yankees had him on a very tight
innings/pitch limit -- in 15 Double-A outings, he faced only 16 batters
after the sixth inning -- so it's not clear whether he can maintain this
performance over the longer outings required of a starter.
He may be a bullpen guy, but at least now that's his floor. A year ago the
floor was more of a crawl space. And now the ceiling of an above-average
starter is back in play.
89. Alex Colome
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 31, 1988) Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Offseason leagues
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Colome took one step forward this year, and needs one or two more to
establish himself as a clear rotation prospect instead of a guy with a
chance to start but with a bullpen floor. He has two above-average pitches
now in a 91-95 mph fastball with good life but not much sink and a sharp,
biting curveball 76-80. His changeup right now is way too hard,
consistently above 85 mph, and he doesn't have great feel for it. His
command overall is below average and he didn't always hold his velocity,
but he threw more strikes this year and continues to get stronger.
That bullpen floor comes from his chance for two knockout pitches, but he
has the frame to start if the changeup improves and he works on keeping
the curve and fastball down in the zone.
90. Drake Britton
Age: 21 (DOB: May 22, 1989) Organization: Boston Red Sox
Bats: Left Throws: Left Top '10 Level: Single-A
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Britton missed almost all of 2009 while recovering from Tommy John
surgery, but came back strongly in 2010 and saw his velocity move upward
as well. Britton worked in the low 90s all year but would touch 95-97
within outings at the end of the summer. His curveball and changeup both
improved as well, although he still needs to refine his curve. He's also
worked on his tendency to rush through the end of his delivery, which the
Red Sox hope will lead to improved command.
He's aggressive and will throw strikes, if not always the quality strikes
he needs, and his arm works well. He threw only about 90 to 95 innings in
2010, including work in spring training, so he'll remain on a fairly low
innings cap in 2011 and is probably a good three years out, with the
chance that he's a Jon Lester Lite down the road.
91. Zach Lee
Age: 19 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991) Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Prep
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: IE
One of the best athletes in the 2010 Rule 4 draft, Lee told scouts all
spring he wasn't signable, even turning down hypothetical offers of $5-6
million because he wanted to play football at LSU. The Dodgers took him in
the first round, a pick widely seen as a deliberate punt because of their
shaky finanical situation in the midst of the McCourt divorce, then
shocked everyone (myself included) by signing Lee to a pretty team-
friendly deal in August.
Now that it's clear that Lee is committed to baseball, the Dodgers got one
of the steals of Day 1 along with Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) and St. Louis
(Zack Cox). His arm action is simple and clean and he repeats it well, and
he has the great body control you'd expect of a multi-sport athlete. He's
already strong at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, but he's still projectable, so
his present fastball of 89-94 or so should creep upward. He'll show an
average or better changeup with good arm speed and just needs to settle on
a breaking ball, as he was caught between a curve and slider in
instructional league.
There is a ton to like here. And if the rumor about why Lee changed his
mind -- that he went to LSU for an orientation weekend, only to realize
he'd be way down the QB depth chart -- the Dodgers should send Les Miles a
fruit basket.
92. Nolan Arenado
Age: 19 (DOB: April 16, 1991) Organization: Colorado Rockies
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Asheville)
Position: Third base 2010 ranking: UR
Arenado wins scouts over with his energy and feel for the game, but they
also walk away talking about the quality of his swing, and questions about
his position.
He has a great swing plane, short to the ball with good loft. There's not
a lot of torque involved but he extends really well through contact and
has good balance throughout. He's more "baseball athlete" than "true
athlete," a below-average runner with good hands and a strong arm but
thick legs and slightly slow feet. To stay at third base, he'll have to do
everything right with his upper body to make up for what his lower half
prevents him from getting, but he seems to have the work ethic and makeup
to do it.
Arenado should hit for average and 20-plus home run power, but doesn't
seem likely to walk or strike out very often. If he has to move to first
base, his bat might still be enough to make him an average regular there.
93 Trevor May
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 23, 1989) Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A+ (Clearwater)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
May started out fine in the Florida State League. But as he started to
struggle he began to try to do too much and lost command of both his
fastball and breaking ball. As a result, he had to go back down a level to
right himself, which he did, dominating the level where he'd been so-so in
77 innings the year before.
May has an above-average fastball, 91-95, with good life but no ability to
generate ground balls. His curve shows average and has improved slightly
each year, while his changeup grades out as average but resulted in
reverse platoon splits (a good sign) at both levels this year.
May is physical and looks like he should be leading someone's rotation,
with a fairly easy delivery from a 3/4 slot that lets him get on top of
the ball. The results need to match the promise this year, but his finish
at Lakewood is a very positive sign in that direction.
94. Rubby de la Rosa
Age: 21 (DOB: March 4, 1989) Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
I happened to catch de la Rosa in his first spring training in the U.S. in
2009, but he didn't break out until 2010, when he jumped into full-season
ball and moved up two levels to Double-A.
Right now he's a two-pitch guy with a fastball at 91-97, which he can hold
into the sixth or seventh inning, and an above-average changeup in the
mid-80s with some fade. His breaking ball is now a low-80s slurve that
will show some bite but is mostly caught between a curve and slider.
He's a skinny kid who could stand to add some muscle, and he'll need to
find a breaking ball of some sort, but this is a special arm. He's one of
the only power arms in L.A.'s system who took a step forward this year.
95. Wilson Ramos
Age: 23 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1987) Organization: Washington Nationals
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: Majors
Position: Catcher 2010 ranking: 42
Ramos had a tough start to 2010, failing to hit for the first time in his
pro career and then finding himself traded to Washington for a middle
reliever masquerading as a closer (Matt Capps).
The change of scenery seemed to agree with Ramos and he's on track to at
least share the catching duties with the washed-up Ivan Rodriguez in 2011.
Ramos is an outstanding throwing catcher who came into 2010 with a career
45 percent success rate and then beat it by nailing half of opposing base
stealers in Triple-A. His receiving is average and he needs work on game-
calling, something he's not likely to learn from the guy with the
reputation for calling for fastball after fastball.
At the plate, he has strong hands and excellent hand-eye coordination with
average power but needs to improve his patience, another thing he's not
going to learn from Pudge. The real concern with Ramos is health; he has
never caught 100 games in a single season, mostly because of injuries, and
has to maintain his conditioning so he doesn't outgrow the position
horizontally. Catchers are scarce, and with Ramos showing two above-
average tools (hit and arm) and average or slightly better power, he
should be at least a solid regular if he can play 120 or so games a year.
96. Adeiny Hechavarria
Age: 21 (DOB: Apr. 15, 1989) Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
Position: Shortstop 2010 ranking: IE
Hechavarria is a flashy shortstop who can play the position but has a ways
to go with the bat. The Jays obviously think highly of him having given
the Cuban a $10 million contract last April. He's a long, loose, fast-
twitch player who does just about everything in the field with panache,
like there are 20 cameras on him. His hands and range are undeniable; his
arm is above-average but he tends to sling it from a slot somewhere south
of sidearm, putting some tail on his throws to first that could cause a
first baseman trouble.
At the plate, he has a long swing and struggles with pitch recognition,
and probably should have spent the whole year in A-ball -- he was pushed
to Double-A because of his glove. He had good contact rates despite his
overall difficulty at the plate, and he had less experience than a typical
21-year-old in Double-A who had three years in college or in the low
minors under his belt. I don't think Hechavarria is a star, but could see
him hitting in the .260-.280 range with 10-12 homers and plus defense.
97. Jake McGee
Age: 24 (DOB: Aug. 6, 1986) Organization:Tampa Bay Rays
Bats: Left Throws: Left Top '10 Level: Majors
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
McGee was No. 26 on the 2008 rankings, then blew out his elbow midway
through that season and didn't return to full strength until 2010. Prior
to the injury, there were enough questions about his offspeed stuff that
it wasn't clear that he could remain a starter, but the surgery seems to
have made that decision for Tampa Bay, and McGee is now ticketed for the
bullpen, where he looks like he'll be an elite setup man or closer.
He is mostly fastball/slider, with the fastball mostly 92-96 and the
slider showing hard tilt, a combination that allows him to dominate
lefties. In the rotation, the lack of an average change or split made him
vulnerable to right-handed hitters, but in the pen his fastball and slider
play up enough to mitigate that issue.
The Rays are open-minded with their young players and if McGee misses bats
in 2011 as he did in relief in 2010 they'll give him more and more
leveraged work.
98. Danny Duffy
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 21, 1988) Organization: Kansas City Royals
Bats: Left Throws: Left Top '10 Level: Double-A
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: UR
Duffy had an unusual 2010 season, tweaking his elbow in February,
retiring, unretiring, then showing inconsistent stuff all summer and into
the Arizona Fall League. When everything is right with Duffy, he'll pitch
at 91-94 as a starter with an action changeup around 80 mph that he trusts
as his go-to offspeed pitch. His curveball is slow with almost vertical
break, but the tightness comes and goes and he's still working on finding
his feel for the pitch.
I've never loved Duffy's long arm action and wasn't shocked when he came
up sore, but at this point the bigger concern is his mental approach to
the game -- between retiring unexpectedly in February and an almost
distracted look in Arizona, he doesn't seem fully committed to baseball
right now. The Royals reported that he was better in that regard after he
returned from his hiatus, and there's mid-rotation potential here if Duffy
works out his off-field issues.
99. Aaron Sanchez
Age: 18 (DOB: July 1, 1992) Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Bats: Right Throws: Right Top '10 Level: A (Auburn)
Position: Pitcher 2010 ranking: IE
Sanchez was one of the cleanest, most projectable high school arms in this
past Rule 4 draft, yet for no reason anyone can understand, he slid out of
the first round. (My theory: He indicated to teams he was signable in the
sandwich round, so some clubs figured they could wait on him and
concentrate first on players who would take only first-round money.)
He was 91-93 in the spring but up to 95 regularly in instructional league,
and has good feel for an average curveball in the mid-to-upper 70s. He'll
need to use his changeup more to develop the same feel for that pitch, but
otherwise just has to get stronger. His delivery already works well (with
a nice long stride to the plate) and he's going to command the fastball
well in time.
Pro scouts who caught him in September couldn't believe he slid out of the
first round, and the Blue Jays must have downed an extra clam eye or two
after they got him.
100. James Jones
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 24, 1988) Organization: Seattle Mariners
Bats: Left Throws: Left Top '10 Level: Single-A
Position: Outfield 2010 ranking: UR
Give the Mariners a ton of credit for this pick -- Jones was a hard-
throwing left-handed pitcher at Long Island University who hit only as a
part-time DH, and most clubs looked at him in that light. The Mariners
took him as an outfielder and the early returns are exciting.
In 18 months in pro ball, Jones has shown himself to be a quick study,
dramatically improving his pitch recognition and his reads in the outfield
between spring training of 2010 and the second half of the year. He hit
.205/.319/.364 before the All-Star Break, but .321/.387/.487 after it as
he continued to make adjustments at the plate. He's one of the most
athletic hitting prospects around with a plus-plus arm and easy power,
even the other way, from good torque and hip rotation in his swing.
Jones will play all of 2011 at age 22, but given his experience level he
has more upside than even that age would indicate, and I wouldn't be
surprised to see him light up the hitter-friendly California League as he
continues to learn.
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