[農場] Prospect A to Z Day 9: Ian Kendall

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間13年前 (2011/11/02 15:04)推噓4(4推 0噓 4→)

留言8則, 5人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

I'd like to take today's prospect A-Z post to talk about the Rays supposed drafting bias towards the Pacific Northwest (that fits because Ian Kendall was drafted out of Ashland HS in Oregon). This supposed bias can be tied to pro-scout Paul Kirsch. Kirsch himself was a minor league player for 7 years after being drafted out of the University of Oregon. He then coached and managed in the minor leagues for 10 years before joining the Rays as Northwest Scouting Director in 1996. The fact that Kirsch is with the Rays scouting department since its inception gives me the opportunity to collect a solid amount of data for this mini-analysis. I'm going to compare the league average rates of how often a baseball player is drafted out of Washington or Oregon to the rates for the Rays. First I'm going to take a look at overall draft rates per state. 今天的prospect A-Z我想來聊聊光芒隊對西北太平洋地區選秀球員偏好(Ian Kendall 就是來自俄勒岡的Ashland HS)，這個偏好與職業球探Paul Kirsch有關，他來自俄勒岡大學，在小聯盟打拼了7年。隨後，轉任小聯盟教練與經營長達10年，在1996年以西北地區的球探經理的身分來到光芒。事實上，自從光芒隊的球探部門讓我有機會搜集這類資料來進行微型分析時，Kirsch就是其中一員了。接下來，我會比較聯盟與光芒隊從華盛頓或俄勒岡選進球員的比例。首先，就從各州的總選秀比率開始吧！ In the recent 10 drafts, 3.8% of all drafted players have had ties with Oregon or Washington. This means that they either were drafted out of a school from that area or born in that area. The data set is pretty consistent here with 9 of these 10 drafts having between 3.6 and 4.6% of the players from Oregon or Washington (outlier: in '06 only 2.3% were from there). The Rays, however, have not had a single draft in their franchise history, in which they drafted less than 5% of their players (I always looked at the first 20 rounds of each year) from Washington or Oregon. The average is at 8% with 26 of the 327 top 20 round selections since '96 coming from these states. The following graph compares the MLB averages over the last 10 years with the Rays averages since their participation in the draft. 最近10年的選秀，3.8%的選秀球員與華盛頓或俄勒岡有關，意即包含所有來自那裡的學校或是從這個地區出生的球員。這份數據呈現得相當穩定，在最近10年有9年保持在3.6～ 4.6%（只有'06年是2.3%）。然而光芒隊在他們的選秀歷史裡，在所有選進的球員中，來自這個地區的球員，所佔比例從未低於5%。在'96年後，327位前20輪選中的球員裡，有26位來自兩州，佔了8%。下面這張圖是大聯盟最近10年，與光芒隊自參加選秀以來的每年選進西北太平洋地區球員的比例。 Link：http://ppt.cc/gaR_ So, there is a bias towards the Pacific Northwest in the Rays draft. I don't necessarily think that the only reason for that is the Rays trusting Paul Kirsch that much (while they certainly do). I also think that the fact that the Pacific Northwest is less scouted than the warm weather states like California, Texas and Florida plays a very big role in that. The Rays do their homework ... and as the graph above shows, they do it even more since the new regime took over (late '05 --> for the '06 draft). Scouting well in less scouted states is a tiny piece of the famous 2%. 所以，這個數據說明了光芒隊對這個地區球員的偏好。我不認為球團信任Paul Kirsch 的眼光是造成這個結果唯一的理由。事實上，我想更重要的因素是西北太平洋地區的球探比某些氣候溫暖地區（例如：加州、德州與佛羅里達）來得少。光芒在這方面下了工夫，如上圖所示，在新的經營團隊（Andrew Friedman接管GM一職）後，這個現象更明顯了。在球探少的地區發產出好的球探系統，只是"2%"的一小部分。註：原文提到的Famous 2%，來自一本棒球經營的書名"The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First"。這本書性質類似於"Moneyball"，但這本書是以'08年的光芒做為主角。這本書有句名言：By quantifying the game's intangibles—that extra 2% that separates winning organization from a losing one. 有興趣的版友可以看看相關的介紹：http://extra2percent.com/about/ Another factor I think is very interesting in this regard: The new regime much more drafts players from the Pacific Northwest in the early rounds of the draft. Since 2006 the average round a player (of the top 20 rounds) from Washington or Oregon was drafted in was 7.25 (1supplemental = 1.5 in this calculation). From 1996 to 2005 it was 12.58. The sample size (26 players), however, is very small in this matter as the following table shows. 另一個我認為非常有趣的現象是：新的經營團隊在前幾輪選擇越來越多西北太平洋地區的球員，以前20輪來說，從2006年以來，選中華盛頓或俄勒岡地區球員的平均輪次是7.25 （補償選秀算1.5），1996～2005則是12.58，然而樣本數（26位球員）並不多。詳列如表：http://ppt.cc/R0xh -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244