Re: Is Adrian Beltre A Future Hall-Of-Famer?

看板RedSox作者nolander (Dent)時間15年前 (2010/06/29 13:29)推噓26(26推 0噓 9→)

留言35則, 18人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言： : http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/6/28/1541491/is-adrian-beltre-a-future-hall-of : I was doing my daily scouring of the leaderboards, and I was immediately : struck by the fact that Adrian Beltre is still batting .340 on the year, : despite coming into the season at .270 for his career. Now, I don't want to : focus on his 2010 performance too much, he has a high line drive rate and a : .376 BABIP, so his exploits this season are somewhat explainable from a guy : with world-class athletic talent. 我做著日常統計工作時被吹哥的.340 BA嚇到了生涯平均才.270喔... 所以我不想太在意今年的好成績他還有相當高的平飛球率跟.376的BABIP 所以...有世界級才能的吹哥打出這個好成績也是可以理解的 : But what caught my eye even more than his 2010 numbers was the astonishing : consistency with which he's put up quality numbers over the past decade. And : frankly, it's got me begging the question, "Will this guy end up getting some : serious Cooperstown recognition?" 但比今年成績更吸引我注意的是他多年來的持久力讓我開始妄想:這個臭臉人會不會有天被古柏鎮刻上紀念碑? : Obviously, if you look at just his bat, he's certainly not a Hall of Famer. : He's got a career batting line of .274/.327/.458, good for a slightly above : average .338 wOBA. But here's a friendly reminder that Beltre hasn't just : been good with the glove at third base in his career. He's been special. : Since the creation of UZR in 2002, he's put up an average defensive mark of : +15.5 per 150 games, with a total defensive mark of +135 since the beginning : of the 1998 season. 當然你只看棒子的話吹哥不是跟HoFer的款生涯打出.274/.327/.458 跟比平均好一點的.338wOBA 但別忘了吹哥的手套是九九純金的! 從2002年UZR這數據出現開始他每年平均拿到+15.5 / 150 games 倒推回去的話他從98年至今合計UZR已經來到+135!! : Not to mention that Beltre should probably get some extra credit as the only : player in the FanGraphs era (2002-present) to put up a double-digit season : season WAR other than Barry Bonds, his monster 2004 was the last time that : we've seen a player cross the 10.0 WAR threshold. For a second, actually, : let's just reflect on that season, which landed him a five-year, $65M deal : with the Mariners the following offseason. Coming off of a two-season span : where he emerged as the game's premier defensive third baseman but showed a : consistently below average bat, Beltre absolutely blew up. He put up a : .334/.388/.629 line (.424 wOBA), as he saw significant improvement in his : K/BB and his HR/FB. The increased power led to 48 homers, 32 doubles, 200 : hits and 121 RBI, some pretty crazy counting numbers. Add in some elite : defensive work (+24.4 UZR) and you have a 10.1 WAR season. And the best part : it, maybe? At the time he was a 25-year-old entering free agency. This would : be like if Evan Longoria hit free agency this offseason. 更別說吹哥是棒子以外唯一在FanGraphs era拿到雙位數WAR的男人 04年超過10.0 WAR!! 有那麼一瞬間好吧說實在的藉由那年的好表現他從水兵拿到5年65M的大約那年的吹哥 .334/.388/.629 (.424 wOBA)以及進步的長打 K/BB跟 HR/FB 炮瓦也變強了 48HR + 32 2B + 200H + 121RBI 還有那嚇死人的手套功夫 (+24.4 UZR) 總合起來就是 10.1的WAR. 最棒的是那年他是個25歲的FA....就跟現在的龍哥同等級阿! 但之後的兩季他爆炸了...儘管手套仍然很金打擊卻連平均都稱不上 : Alas, I think that people often focus on their disappointment with Beltre, : though. He's been a pretty consistently high quality player, but his 2004 : performance has just left everyone drooling, because it was a combination of : hitting and defensive prowess that we've rarely seen before. But even though : Beltre has had some serious trouble replicating his offensive magic (which : you can somewhat blame on Safeco Field; he picked like pretty much the worst : place for his bat to play when he signed with the M's), I think he's closing : in on that point where we have to acknowledge that this might be a : Hall-of-Fame career. 唉我覺得大家都只注意到吹哥拿到大約後的不符身價的表現卻忘了他一直都是個很穩定的好選手但04年的可怕表現讓大家都失心瘋地認為他是個攻守兩端俱強的妖獸但即使那之後吹哥沒有辦法複製04年的打擊魔法(某個程度上是Safeco的問題) 我仍然認為他有機會穩定輸出並成為HoFer : Put together everything that Beltre has done on the field, and FanGraphs has : Beltre's value at +47.1 wins coming into today, which puts him at the same : level as luminaries such as Fred Lynn and Bernie Williams. Certainly an : impressive group, but most people would probably be in agreement that they : aren't quite Hall-of-Famers. 總之吹哥的表現在FanGraphs上是個+47.1 win的好選手是在Fred Lynn Bernie Williams這種等級高手但是可能沒辦法進名人堂 : The key here, though, is that Beltre is showing no signs of slowing down. As : I noted before, he's killing the ball in Boston right now, and the glove has : shown few signs of decline (+13 UZR/150). But most importantly, despite the : fact that he's seemingly been around forever, Beltre is only 31-years-old. : He's on pace for a 6.5-7.0 WAR season right now, which he probably won't : maintain all season, but something around 5.0-5.5 wins seems pretty : reasonable. 而跟上述幾名不同之處是吹哥看來並沒有退化今年在紅襪更是大殺四方! 手套面也許"只"有 +13UZR/150 但最重要的是他雖然看來很老實際上也才31歲今年目前是個6.5~7.0WAR的球季就算之後回歸平淡也少說會有5.0~5.5吧 : Add in a few more seasons at 3-4 WAR, which isn't reasonable considering he : averaged about 4 WAR per year over the course of his 11-season career, and : Beltre should be somewhere around 60 or so wins before everything is said and : done. That's the range of guys like Bob Feller, Ryne Sandberg and Yogi Berra. : Factor in that he has that signature monster season and he's endearing : himself to a lot of Red Sox fans right now, and his case looks like it could : end up being pretty strong. 要是之後再拿到幾個3~4 WAR的球季吹哥會成為+60win的選手 (目前11季平均差不多就是4WAR) 那他的對照組就會成為Bob Feller, Ryne Sandberg and Yogi Berra 有04年的光榮歷史+紅襪國的熱情粉絲我願意相信他最後會更屌! : You know what? I think that Adrian Beltre might be a Hall-of-Famer. 你知道嗎? 我真的覺得吹哥可能會進名人堂喔~! -- 翻完之後發現這是個數據派自爽文XD -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 70.179.17.78

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