[閒聊] Rockies Top 20 Prospects for 2012
1) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Grade A-: I love the combination of power production
and a very low strikeout rate, just 53 whiffs in 517 at-bats. I also like his
defense at third base, where he combines steadily-improving reliability with
a strong arm and decent range. Scouts love his bat as much as the numbers do.
Only negative is lack of speed, but he has All-Star potential.
2) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Grade A-: Lost velocity late in the year, but had
extenuating circumstances (two-week layoff because of the trade with
Cleveland, followed by appendectomy) and was still effective even with less
zip on the fastball. Projects as a number two starter but could use some
Triple-A action to polish up his changeup.
3) Chad Bettis, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. 95 MPH sinker and a nasty slider
were too much for California League hitters. Still working on curveball and
changeup, preventing B+ at this time, but I like him a lot. Could be a number
three starter or possibly a closer
4) Trevor Story, SS, Grade B: More power than most shortstops, and he can
stick at the position. Great arm, error rate should improve with experience.
Also takes walks and steals bases. Main concern is tendency to uppercut,
which could reduce batting average at higher levels. With proper development
he can be a B+/A- prospect a year from now. . .perhaps more.
5) Tim Wheeler, OF, Grade B: Broad range of skills: tapped into his power
last year with 33 homers (plus three more in Arizona Fall League), could also
steal 20 bases a year, draws some walks. Problems with left-handed pitching
and a high strikeout rate preclude higher grade right now.
6) Tyler Anderson, LHP, Grade B: Borderline B-. Polished strike-thrower from
University of Oregon, stuff is a tick better than the typical college finesse
pitcher. Should be a fine number three starter assuming he doesn't catch
whatever contagion messed up Christian Friedrich.
7) Wilin Rosario, C, Grade B-: Terrific throwing arm and plenty of power, but
strike zone judgment has deteriorated. Looks like he may end up something
like Miguel Olivo.
8) Kyle Parker, OF, Grade B-: Former Clemson quarterback has excellent power,
but also has serious contact issues. We need to see what he can do outside
the South Atlantic League and friendly Asheville.
9) Joe Gardner, RHP, Grade B-: I like him more than the numbers say I should,
but I love the movement on his fastball. Could end up in relief if secondary
pitches remain inconsistent.
10) Josh Rutledge, SS, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Hit .348/.414/.517 in the
California League, stole 16 bases. Plate discipline has improved since
college at Alabama but could still use work. Likely to wind up at second base.
11) Kent Matthes, OF, Grade C+: Borderline B-: California League MVP hit .334
with 23 homers in just 371 at-bats, season cut short by broken hand. Turns 25
next month, has strike zone issues, need to see at higher levels.
12) Charlie Blackmon, OF, Grade C+: Perfect fourth outfielder profile: some
power, some speed, makes contact, solid glove.
13) Edwar Cabrera, LHP, Grade C+: Overmatched A-ball hitters with decent
fastball and incredible changeup, still working on breaking ball. Scouts
remain lukewarm despite superior numbers and we need to see him in Double-A.
14) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Grade C+: Two disappointing Double-A seasons
and this time he doesn't have excuse of a sore elbow. Stock has slipped, but
still has a live arm and a chance to be a fourth starter or a relief option.
15) Tyler Matzek, LHP, Grade C+: He's still got the stuff. After going back
to his high school mechanics, his command improved from abysmally awful to
merely quite poor. Very difficult to get a read on. He had some good games
late for Asheville, but some lousy ones, too. You could order Cabrera,
Friedrich, and Matzek in any way, depending on if you are most scared of
Cabrera's lack of breaking ball, Friedrich's crappy seasons in Double-A, or
Matzek's command collapse.
16) D.J. LeMahieu, INF, Grade C+: I haven't given up hope that he can add
some power, at least more doubles, and I think his defense is underrated.
17) Rosell Herrera, SS, Grade C+: Will wind up at third base or outfield.
Scouts like his switch-hitting offensive potential despite so-so numbers in
the Pioneer League. Young at 18, still raw, high upside.
18) Rafael Ortega, OF, Grade C+: Didn't wow with his stats in the Sally
League, but has tools, some speed and power potential, good glove, still just
20.
19) Rob Scahill, RHP, Grade C+: Inning-eater with a nice sinker, good slider,
chance to surprise in 2012 if he can improve his command.
20) Hector Gomez, SS, Grade C: Strong glove, has some power and speed,
injuries and plate discipline problems have held him back, could be a solid
utility guy.
OTHERS: Cristhian Adames, SS; Jayson Aquino, LHP; Andrew Brown, OF; Albert
Campos, RHP; Corey Dickerson, OF; Tommy Field, INF; Parker Frazier, RHP; Dan
Houston, RHP; Jordan Pacheco, C; Ben Paulsen, 1B; Josh Slaats, RHP; Will
Swanner, C; Peter Tago, RHP; Dillon Thomas, OF; Carl Thomore, OF; Dan
Winkler, RHP.
This is a solid farm system. On offense you have a future star third baseman
in Arenado. Wheeler and Rosario have weaknesses but should be solid regulars
or good role players. Story could be/should be excellent if he develops at a
normal pace. Parker, Matthes, and Rutledge could all become regulars as well,
although they all have weaknesses that could get exposed in Double-A.
Blackmon and LeMahieu won't be stars but both can contribute in the majors
now. Herrera and Ortiz are a long way off but have upside. Gomez and Tulsa
teammate Tommy Field will battle for utility roles. Gomez has the tools
advantage but Field is a scrapper who should not be underestimated.
Corey Dickerson is a tough one. He couldn't hit outside Asheville and scouts
don't like him much, but 32 homers is a lot in any context and he deserves a
full shot at higher levels. Let's see what he does in the California League.
I am pro-Pomeranz and I also like 2011 draftee Tyler Anderson. Friedrich is
an enigma who could still develop but might need a change of scenery. Cabrera
and Matzek are both extremely interesting but for opposite reasons. Of the
A-ball lefties, Matzek has the highest ceiling but also the highest bust
potential.
Bettis and Gardner both have power sinkers coveted by the organization.
Either or both could end up in the bullpen, but Bettis' secondary stuff is
better and I think he has the best shot at remaining a starter.
Overall, I like the system. They have depth and a balance of players with
tools and polish.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/30/2671001/colorado-rockies-top-20-prospects-for-2012
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