[灌水] A Thunder free agency primer

看板Thunder (奧克拉荷馬市雷霆)作者tanaka0826 (田中鬪莉王)時間12年前 (2013/07/03 02:37)推噓5(5推 0噓 4→)

留言9則, 7人參與討論串1/1

A Thunder free agency primer http://dailythunder.com/2013/07/a-thunder-free-agency-primer-2/ It’s the same story again for the Thunder and free agency. The roster is virtually filled out, and with little money to spend, the only thing potentially to be done would be adding a few peripheral pieces. 雷霆今年的狀況依然差不多─陣容幾乎滿了、能花的錢也不多，只能買買次要球員。 Essentially, Sam Presti’s master plan is working well, but not perfectly. The real backfire to the plan is that Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden were actually too good, at least too good too soon, and it meant the roster had to be broken up. Presti的偉大計劃很不錯─但不到完美，因為Russell Westbrook、Serge Ibaka和James Harden打太好了─至少是太快就打出來了，所以不得不拆散他們。 Still: The Thunder have a young, sustainable roster that is maintaining core consistency year over year and there’s not much to be done on the open market in terms of filling out the team. That frustrates some as they see other contending teams take a shot at a veteran player or a big name, but every year it illustrates that some still don’t understand the vision behind the construction of this roster. The Thunder were designed with the intention to avoid that. 雷霆依然擁有年輕、穩定的核心球員，過去幾年都不是靠著自由市場的補強來建軍。有些人看到其他隊拼命補強的樣子會感到失望，但是很多人依然不明白這就是雷霆的方針─他們避免到從市場找尋建構陣容的方式。 Look at Sam Presti’s free agency history in terms of new signings: Presti在過去幾年補進的陣容： Signed C.J. Miles to an offer sheet, Utah matched (2008) Signed Nenad Krstic, in December, mind you (2008) Signed Kevin Ollie (2009) Signed Royal Ivey (2010) Signed Derek Fisher (2012) Signed Derek Fisher (2013) The Thunder have drafted, cultivated and developed their players, spending virtually their entire budget on locking up players produced in house. It’s always been the plan since Presti took over. Draft, develop and sustain. 選進、栽培、養成、花所有的預算留住他們。這就是Presti要的三步驟─選秀、養成、留下來。 What that means is the money the team has is almost exclusively used to re-sign those players. If you feel like griping because the Thunder never sign anyone, don’t forget they’ve shelled out two max deals, a large extension to Serge Ibaka and contracts for Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison. The Thunder spend; they just spend it on players they already have. 雷霆的錢幾乎用在跟球員「續簽」上面。如果你想抱怨雷霆不花錢補強，別忘了他們花掉兩張頂級合約、Ibaka的大合約以及Perkins、Thabo和Collison三位球員的薪水。他們把錢花在持有的球員上。 So as free agency begins today, a few days after what some perceived as a disappointing draft, questions about possible solutions and help are circling. What can the Thunder realistically do in free agency? 在有些人認為是令人失望的選秀會的幾日後，FA開市了。關於解答和補強的問題也浮出來了─雷霆到底能幹嘛？ What is the Thunder’s current salary situation? 2013-14 committed salary: $67,461,070, not including three non-guaranteed contracts (Hasheem Thabeet, DeAndre Liggins, Daniel Orton); if you include them, it’s $70,462,170. 2013-14已付合約─$67.4M($67,461,070)，三位non-guaranteed(Thabeet、Liggins和 Orton)，三位都加上去的話是$70.4M($70,462,170)。 Relevant, important note: The luxury tax is expected to be set at about $71.6 million next season. 更重要的是，明年的稅線大概會落在$71.6M。 Assuming the Thunder sign their two first round picks, they’ll have 14 players under contract for next season, leaving one spot open. 如果雷霆簽下今年選秀會中得到的前兩位球員，他們總共會有14人，剩下一個位置。 What kind of money can the Thunder spend? Because the Thunder are over the salary cap, they only have two ways to sign a free agent. The first is through the mid-level exception and here’s how that works: Teams that did not pay the tax the previous season are eligible for the full MLE (about $5 million a year for four years) while teams that paid the tax get the mini-mid-level (about $3 million a year for three years). The Thunder can use the full mid-level, but it of course would make them a taxpayer next season. 因為雷霆超出門檻，他們只有兩種簽下FA的方式。其一：中產條款。前一季沒有付奢侈稅的球隊可以使用全額中產條款(一年$5M、四年)；反之則得以使用迷你中產(一年$3M、三年)。雷霆可以用全額中產，只是這樣明年薪資就爆了。 The other way OKC can sign free agents is through the minimum salary exception. You sign a player to the veteran minimum (salary is based on a scale of years played) for a maximum of two years. 另一種方式最低薪資條款。veteran minimum、最多兩年。 (There’s a third way, but it only applies to Kevin Martin, who has Bird Rights, which is an exception where teams can re-sign their own players while exceeding the cap, as long as the player hasn’t switched teams as a free agent in the previous three seasons.) (其實還有第三種方式─鳥權，但是只適用於Kevin Martin。雷霆就算超出上限也能重簽上季原有球員。) So let’s say the Thunder splurge and use the mid-level to sign J.J. Redick for $5 million a year. That would put their total payroll at $75,462,170, which is $3,862,170 above the tax line. What’s important about that number is that in order to use the full non-taxpayer MLE, you have to be below the luxury tax “apron,” even after you use the exception, which is set at $4 million above the tax line. So it works. That contract would put the Thunder in the lowest tax bracket, and would have them paying $1.50 for every dollar they’re over, which is a $5,793,255 tax bill. Essentially, Redick becomes an $10.7 million a year player. (Of course, those numbers are different if the Thunder waive those non-guaranteed players. They’d still break over the tax, but just slightly — about $900,000 or so.) 假設雷霆開心灑錢，用中產條款($5M/y)簽下J.J. Redick，薪資將會達到$75,462,170，超過稅限共$3,862,170。重要的是奢侈稅「硬上限」是超出$4M，所以勉強過關。雷霆支付的稅金是每超過$1就要付$1.5。就本質來說，Redick變成一位每年$10.7M的球員。(當然，如果雷霆丟掉那三位non-guaranteed球員的話，超出的總量會減少很多，大約$900K 。) Sam Presti has never said the organization is philosophically opposed to paying the tax, but it certainly doesn’t seem like they’re that interested in it. At least not in a situation like this. The Thunder were willing to head into tax territory with James Harden, but Presti recently labeled that a special circumstance. Presti不曾說過雷霆死不付奢侈稅，不過不難看出他們不想這麼做─至少不是這種花法。雷霆願意因為留下Harden而花奢侈稅，不過最近Presti表示那是「特殊狀況」。 (Note: Had Harden accepted the four-year, $55 million offer from the Thunder, OKC’s total payroll would’ve been about $78.5 million next season, assuming they only carried 13 players, forcing them to pay about $12.25 million into the luxury tax. And it was only going to get worse.) (註：假設雷霆接受四年$55M的合約，雷霆下一季的薪資將會達到$78.5M，假設他們只留 13位球員，他們得花費$12.5M奢侈稅─而且只會越來越糟。) I think in the right situation, the Thunder would break into the tax. If they loved Redick — I’m using him as the example because I do love Redick — and saw him as a potential missing piece, they might just bite the bullet and take on the tax hit and maybe try and shop some players for picks, or waive the non-guaranteed guys. Some act as if the tax line is a hard cap. It’s scary, it’s ugly, it’s bad. But teams are paying the tax — hello, Brooklyn — and while most are hesitant to go deep into it, just dipping a toe isn’t so bad. The Spurs have paid the tax, granted the previous, less punitive one, but they have paid it. 恰到好處的情況下雷霆會願意付出奢侈稅。如果他們對Redick情有獨鍾(我提Redick的原因是我喜歡Redick)，視他為雷霆缺少的那塊拼圖，那雷霆可以乖乖付稅金、或許拿球員換選秀權、釋出non-guaranteed球員等等。有些人將稅線視為硬性上限，但是有些球隊付錢付很爽(籃網)，而有不少球隊對於超出很多薪資的方法抱持遲疑態度。馬刺不也付了一丁點。 So why don’t they just amnesty Perk, right? All of this is one big reason why amnestying Kendrick Perkins made zero sense whatsoever. The general thinking by many was, amnesty Perk, use that $9 million in new cap space to go sign a new free agent big man. Well, wiping Perk’s contract off the books still wouldn’t put OKC under the cap meaning the only money they could spend on a free agent replacement would be the mid-level exception. And who are they going to get for that? Not Al Jefferson, not Nikola Pekovic, not likely anyone all that good. 特赦Perk毫無道理可言。很多人誤以為特赦他可以用騰出來的$9M去買自由球員，但是雷霆薪資表上塗掉的Perk合約並不能讓雷霆的薪資低於稅線，所以他們還是只能使用中產條款簽人。Al Jefferson？Nikola Pekovic？不可能。不可能簽到那麼好的。 A big addendum: The way to sort of skirt around this for teams is by using a sign-and-trade. However, in the new collective bargaining agreement, teams cannot be above that pesky tax apron — $4 million over the threshold — after the trade is completed. (This was a huge point of contention during the lockout two years ago.) So in the Thunder’s case, they could really only sign-and-trade a player worth about the MLE anyway. Let’s say the Thunder used the amnesty on Perk trimming $9 million, with a sign-and-trade the Thunder could spend up to around $15 million on a replacement. Sounds all well and good, except since the Thunder are over the cap, they’ve got to match up salaries on a deal, meaning good players would have to be traded to another team to complete it. Which really doesn’t make any sense. 重要的附錄：似乎可以用先簽後換？不過根據新版CBA，球隊在交易完成後不能超過硬上限($4M)，這也是當年風管時的一大爭論點。以雷霆的情況來看，他們只能換來一位中產等級的球員，所以我們特赦Perk的$9M，可以能來換一位$15M的球員。聽起來不錯，但是因為雷霆超出稅線，所以他們必須讓薪資對等─所以他們必須把好球員交易走。所以毫無道理可言。 Will/can they re-sign Kevin Martin? Sure they can. There are two ways it could happen: 1) Martin decides he has unfinished business in OKC and wants one more run at a championship. He agrees to a mega-discounted deal of one-year, $3.5 million which barely scratches the luxury tax and does minimal financial damage or 2) the Thunder decide Martin is worth dipping a deeper toe into the luxury tax and give him the three years, $21 million he’s likely looking for. 可以啊，1) Martin佛心大發，想要跟雷霆合作再拼冠軍戒。小小的佛心就好，一年$3.5M 大概就能讓雷霆只需要付一點點稅金而不會遭受鉅額損失。2) 雷霆佛心大發，給Martin 想要的三年$21M。 A person close to the Martin talks says the chances of him return are “very unlikely.” With serious interest surrounding him throughout the league, there ’s just little to no way the Thunder are going to put together a competitive offer to match the Pistons, Hawks, Mavericks, Pelicans or whoever. 一位親近Martin的人士表示Martin留下來的機會「微乎其微」。因為很多球隊對Martin有十足的興趣，雷霆絕對拼不過活塞、老鷹、小牛、鵜鶘之類的球隊。 Is using the mid-level exception actually a realistic possibility? Look at it this way: Thabo Sefolosha is about to turn 30 and will be on an expiring deal this season. While the Thunder have another shooting guard ready and waiting in Jeremy Lamb, and a possible future Thabo in DeAndre Liggins, the depth at 2-guard could be thin in the future. Thabo將滿30歲，這一結束後約就滿了。雖然雷霆有未來SG Jeremy Lamb和或許能成為下一個Thabo的Liggins，未來的SG大概仍會成為較為薄弱的位置。 With Thabo’s $3.9 million coming off the books next season, there’s a chance the Thunder could bit the tax bullet for one season to add a little depth, let Thabo expire and have the new player for the next few years. Thabo這一季的薪資是$3.9M，所以雷霆大概能咬緊牙關撐一季來增加深度，再約滿之後找尋新球員來撐接下來的幾年。 Complications: The Thunder probably would like to be able to re-sign Reggie Jackson in the coming years, so every penny saved now goes towards aiding that, and there’s also the issue of Durant and Westbrook’s deals have percentage raises each season. So Durant and Westbrook are actually going to make about a million more in 2014-15 than they did this season, and more than that the year after. Perk’s $9.6 million comes off the books then, so that helps, which is why having a possible contributor like Steven Adams on a rookie contract would be so important. 複雜的地方：或許雷霆會希望能夠續簽Reggie Jackson，所以省下來的每一分錢都能幫助達成這個約的可能性。KD跟Russ的合約再2014-15會多出$1M，再下一季又會多一些；Perk 的$9.6M會跑完─這有不小的幫助─這也是為什麼找一個那時還是新秀約的Steven Adams 是非常重要的一步。 So in conclusions, the likely scenario: Nothing happens, Thabo is re-signed next season. 結論是我們很有機會看到：什麼事都沒發生，Thabo下季續簽。 What are some options for the Thunder? I don’t see the Thunder actually splurging — though it does feel a little dicey to really be relying on Jeremy Lamb this much — so if there’s a player to be signed, it’ll likely come at the veteran minimum. The Thunder could sign one vet and pretty much still avoid the tax. A couple candidates would be Stephen Jackson, Francisco Garcia, Derek Fisher (gasp), Ronnie Brewer, Martell Webster (wishful thinking), Terence Williams, Xavier Henry, Alan Anderson, Sam Young, Tracy McGrady and Willie Green. 我看不出雷霆灑錢的可能性─雖然倚賴Lamb是有點冒險的舉動─但是真的簽人的話不外乎是老將底薪，雷霆能簽一人然後避免付稅金。我們可以找Stephen Jackson、Francisco Garcia、Derek Fisher(倒抽一口氣)、Ronnie Brewer、Martell Webster(樂觀想法)、 Terence Williams、Xavier Henry、Alan Anderson、Sam Young、Tracy McGrady或 Willie Green。 Some of those players might get an offer better than the minimum, but it’s hard to really know right now. There is a feeling within the team more veterans are needed, though. And while the Thunder can’t really open up the checkbook and go get a big name free agent, a guy like Jackson — while damaged goods — is a playoff tested vet that would have the support of a lot of Thunder players. He’s friends with Perk, he’s tight with KD. There was that whole Serg Abaka thing, but I’m sure bygones could be teammates. 以上那些人當中會有一些人拿到更好的約，現在很難斷言狀況如何。現在有種雷霆比較需要老將的氛圍。雷霆現在沒有能力負擔一位名氣響噹噹的大咖FA。Stephen Jackson─雖然會造成一點破壞─但是他是經過無數季後賽洗禮的匠，可以支持雷霆球員。他是Perk的好朋友，跟KD很親近，雖然有Serg Abaka事件，不過我相信他們還是能成為隊友。 What are the Thunder probably going to do? Nothing. Deal with it. 什麼都沒有，面對事實吧。 The Thunder will probably hold on to the open roster spot, stay under the tax and press on with the existing team, one that if I may remind you, is already pretty damn good. 雷霆或許會留下這個空位、待在稅線底下，用這個陣容打球─容我提醒你─已經是個很棒的陣容。 -- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD." -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.117.20.246