[情報] 2023 Draft 綠帽版
今年因為是2020 Coronavirus只選五輪之後的選秀,這些人平常根本不會去念大學,品質是
特別好尤其是最前段.
綠帽本身結構也有一些改變,現在David Forst掌權後不會是Beane去make the
call(Kyler Murray...),且綠帽球場Funding Deal通過,不一定像以前先選regular再去
賣掉的模型.
今年市場上有公認的Top 5,綠帽在#6就是等前面任何人(especially #3 #5)上去擠一個下
來,否則還有安全牌,看不出來需要用到其他人的可能.
Draft lottery只有抽到#6(https://bit.ly/3VH0YC6 https://bit.ly/3UJBYsm),不過反
正明年會再抽一次...
Draft order照新CBA改成前六是Lottery pick,中間十二照勝率,後面照季後賽結果和
revenue-sharing status.
此外新CBA十輪後超過150,000才會計入bonus pool(https://bit.ly/45TXSQz).
而新的transfer portal rules(https://bit.ly/4617o4D https://bit.ly/43mWapd)使得
大學更容易得到好球員如Paul Skenes.
今年bonus pool是第五的$14,255,600.
時間
July 9 7:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 1-2, CB Round B and FA compensation picks
June 10 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 3-10
June 11 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 11-20
順位
1st(28) COMP(11) 2nd(22) COMP(9) 3rd(31) 4th(30) COMP(6) after5th
#6 #39 #41 #72 #103 #139,#166
revenue sharing多發了#39
以下老樣子以#6為主
5.Max Clark L/L OF HS: Franklin Age:18.6
.646/.808/1.215 6HR 52BB/5SO 35SB
Potential five-tool center fielder:
plus bat speed and smooth swing, average raw power, true center fielder,
plus-plus speed, 65-70 arm. Extremely competitive.
Only 6% swing-and-miss rate in national showcase events.
Five tool且Whiff rate是elite,若不是今年不會排到這麼後面.
此外他在社群媒體上的影響力大過其他人,令人擔心不知道是否滿足於狀況不好的
organization.
https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-max-clark-of
https://youtu.be/njHB2_7JkH8
9.Jacob Wilson R/R SS College: Grand Canyon Age:21.3
.412/.461/.635 6HR 19BB/5SO 8SB-9ATT
Son of former All-Star SS Jack Wilson (assistant coach at Grand Canyon).
Advanced bat-to-ball skills and hand-eye coordination, 40-50 in game power,
true shortstop with 55 arm. Great kid.
Outlying 92%-94.4% Contact rate from WAC (97.4% Zone Contact), even lower
whiff-rate vs plus velocity. 100.2mph 90th% EV. Chase% 25.5%.
Power only from the pull side.
One of the lowest HH LA among any college hitters (6.8 degree), Barrel% also
just 11.8%.
真正的outlier,可以待在SS, elite contact rate(我不知道曾經有誰比92%-94.4%高過雖
然是WAC),很低的90th% EV和launch angle.
Launch angle應當是可以從approach去改,90th% EV有本身訓練也有天分程度,即使沒有他
要當SS regular應沒有問題.
雖然市場常提到Top5,我只覺得前面偏Stats的隊最好不要搶先選走他..
https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-jacob-wilson-ss
https://youtu.be/SXJuKUDTbnQ
10.Kyle Teel L/R C College: Virginia Age:21.4
.407/.475/.655 13HR 32BB/36SO 5SB-6ATT
Super athletic catcher, good bat speed, control the strike zone well, plus
arm. Stats improved from the 2022 season.
Makes USA National Team in 2021 and 2022.
Tendency to expand the zone at times but he contacts (https://bit.ly/3oX9zW0).
Receiving, framing skills need to be improved.
82% Contact rate, mediocre vs plus velocity, 105.8mph 90th% EV increased from
'22 102.6mph. Chase% 22%.
綠帽rumor之一,今年才衝到Top10,即使不能待Catcher也可以去OF.
https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-kyle-teel-c
https://youtu.be/eDHskBQgGMw
11.Jacob Gonzalez L/R SS College: Mississippi Age:21.1
.327/.435/.564 10HR 35BB/28SO 0SB-2ATT
Above-average hit, above-average raw power. mixed reviews on SS defense,
mediocre range but good instinct and action. 55 arm.
Good plate discipline and strike zone control.
85% Contact rate, 104.2mph 90th% EV. Chase% 24%.
Long track record from prep and SEC, played shortstop for USA National Team.
Solid但不是excellent,以#6來說ceiling或確定性不如其他選擇.
https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-jacob-gonzalez-ss
https://youtu.be/ubzAgx0rrtU
有可能發生的幾個Scenario:
(1) Someone #1收discount(Crews doesn't want to go 1-1)然後後面連鎖反應後Top5掉
一個出來
(2) #3只想拿下一個大學棒子造成Top5掉一個出來
(3) #5不拿Top5剩的最後一個
(4) 其他(Scott Boras要價...)
若發生對綠帽較為有利
Other notable guys:
1. Dylan Crews R/R OF
Well-rounded toolset and performance. 75% Contact rate, 109.6mph 90th% EV.
Chase% 20%.
2. Paul Skenes RHP
Best draft pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole.
98-101mph fastball, 70 grade slider, Stuff+ 223.
3. Wyatt Langford R/R OF
70 raw power, 70 runner, similar stats, less defensive value than Crews. 80%
Contact rate, 107.6mph 90th% EV. Chase% 21%.
4. Walker Jenkins L/R OF
One of the best hit/power combo in prep class, smooth and polished swing.
Same adviser as Crews (Boras).
6. Chase Dollander RHP
Came into the year in the 1-1 mix. Command not as sharp and stuff not as
consistent. Slider is flatter and lost bite. Stuff+ 179.
Mock
BA:1206/0316/0511/0518/0608 Max Clark/Jacob Gonzalez/Jacob Wilson/Noble
Meyer/Rhett Lowder
MLB.com:1215/0426/0503/0505/0519/0602/0609/0617/0622/0629/0706
Walker Jenkins/Chase Dollander,Jacob Wilson/
Jacob Wilson/Jacob Wilson/Kyle Teel/Kyle Teel/
Kyle Teel/Brayden Taylor/Jacob Wilson/Brayden
Taylor/Brayden Taylor
PG:1104/0418/0428/0703 Dylan Crews/Wyatt Langford/Walker Jenkins/Kyle Teel
KL:0524/0620/0629 Kyle Teel/Kyle Teel/Jacob Wilson
ESPN:0503/0530/0626/0706 Jacob Gonzalez/Jacob Gonzalez/Max Clark
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Athletics/M.1688701263.A.86C.html
※ 編輯: ThomasHSNU (42.79.249.235 臺灣), 07/07/2023 12:41:14
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