[情報] 2024 Draft 綠帽版
今年整體來講是below average,但今年前段變化很大,從開季前的Top3(JJ,Travis
Bazzana,Nick Kurtz)到現在Top8-11根據各家看法不同.不少人表現很好導致前段排名改
變.
第一輪大部分是College position player,配上一點College Pitcher和少量HS
position player.
今年抽籤抽到第四,當然是很不理想而且Receive Sharing recipient只能連兩抽前六,所
以明年最多只能第十(現在看八成是CHW後面第十一...).
去Las Vegas之前,謠傳payroll會增加,看看有沒機會除了draft外可以簽中等FA然後賣掉,
不要只是靠draft和trade market.
今年bonus pool是第五的15,347,900(https://bit.ly/3S2rRAE).
時間
July 14 7:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 1-2, CB Round B and FA compensation picks
July 15 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 3-10
July 16 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 11-20
順位
1st(30) COMP(9) 2nd(26) COMP(9) 3rd(29) 4th(30) COMP(3) after5th
#4 #40 #73 #75 #104 #137,#166
revenue sharing多發了#73
以下老樣子以#4為主
2.Travis Bazzana L/R SS College: Oregon State Age:21.9
.407/.568/.911 28HR 76BB/37SO 16SB-21ATT
Polish hit tool and plus bat speed. The bat gets on plane early and stays in
the zone a long time. Above average power, can homer to the opposite field.
Excellect plate discipline, long track record. Excellent advanced data in
Power Five conference: Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=85.1%/108.9mph/13.8%.
Contact%/Z-Contact%/O-Contact%=85%/89%/74%(FSS). Above-average speed. Fine
defender at second, one of few players can stick at up-the-middle defensive
position. Scouts and coaches like his great makeup. Age 21.9.
本次的safe bet,雖然只能守2B但若綠帽拿到八成叫他多練OF,不是大問題,
只有選不選的到的問題.
https://youtu.be/7SRxgQhmuM8
3.JJ Wetherholt L/R SS/2B College: West Virginia Age:21.8
.331/.472/.589 8HR 30BB/17SO 6SB-6ATT
60 or 70 hit, above average power, quality swing decisions. Excellect
plate discipline. Excellent advanced data in Power Five
conference: Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=84.7%/108.2mph/14.1%. Missed several
weeks after a hamstring injury (similar injury to last summer with Team USA,
trainer Steven Rosier said it's Grade 3 hamstring strain, not last summer's
low-grade muscle injury https://bit.ly/4d2q6ev). Above average speed when
healthy. Age 21.8. On the President's List and Dean's List. A quarter Korean.
Tool和Advanced data跟Travis Bazzana非常相近,差別在於JJ現在就在SS(或可轉2B or
3B),然而JJ躺了一段時間. ESPN圖顯示Contact也很好看
(https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2024/0605/WetherholtMR.png
). 問題在於評估他的
hamstring injury, trainer說跟上次不同但這根本是同個area,這是可以recurring的...
https://youtu.be/naRJPA1hWaA
https://www.mlb.com/video/jj-wetherholt-on-playing-for-west-virginia-mlb-draft
7.Braden Montgomery S/R OF College: Texas A&M Age:21.2
.322/.454/.733 27HR 53BB/59SO 5SB-7ATT
Switch-hitting OF. 70 power. 70 or 80 arm. Plus bat speed from
both sides. LH swing is better. Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=74.2%/111.1mph/23.3%.
Contact%/Z-Contact%/O-Contact%=76%/87%/39%(FSS). K%=22.3% is high for a
college hitter(https://bit.ly/4bFaRqV). Transferred from Stanford to Texas A&M.
Age 21.2. Ankle injury in the Super Regionals but may not serious.
Contact有進步但是還是比前段其他人差,有elite arm和power而且是switch hitter.問題
在於ESPN heat map Chase% and Miss%並不好看,低球內中外角都有50%+的
Miss%(https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2024/0605/MontgomeryMR.png
),屬於偏高風險的選
擇.
https://youtu.be/gWkLx9AbqCo
https://www.mlb.com/video/2024-draft-braden-montgomery-of
https://www.tiktok.com/@pac12network/video/7219458036916686123
8.Nick Kurtz L/L 1B College: Wake Forest Age:21.1
.306/.531/.763 22HR 78BB/42SO 4SB-4ATT
Great 6-5, 240 pound frame, plus bat speed, advanced hit tool, 70 raw power,
advanced hitting approach. Excellect plate discipline. Excellent advanced data
in Power Five conference: Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=80.2%/110.4mph/13.5%.
Contact%/Z-Contact%/O-Contact%=82%/90%/48%(FSS). Age 21.1.
季初的Top3, advanced data亮眼.一個問題是1B track record並不好
(https://bit.ly/4f1kjaW).另一個問題是他沒去Combine,本來JJ的Hamstring是
比較有問題的,但是他至少敢去體檢(事實上那也檢不出什麼),現在Nick Kurtz(shoulder,
ribs)不去變成未知數,通常未知數過多Front Office就是直接pass...但是在#4若前面把
安全選擇都選走,可能比起其他人是相對安全的選擇,他跟綠帽以前的交易目標型也很
接近...
https://youtu.be/mln4CxybHkg
今年誰會被先選大程度取決於asking price (Advisor).
前面#1CLE不知道會做什麼但他們會精打細算,Travis Bazzana or JJ的機率比較高.若省
錢選到後面某人當然是最好.一個講法是若Paul Skenes/Dylan Crews拿9.2MM/9MM的話,其
他人應該要給更少...
第二的CIN可能直接拿Condon或Travis Bazzana剩的. Condon若再往下是比較沒意義因為
COL會攔走,除非是錢的關係..
第三的COL可能拿Power或Arm,若這樣對綠帽有利.若是JJ-Travis Bazzana-Condon連續被
抽走可能是較不利的.
以綠帽以前的做法,給Nick Kurtz 6-7MM比較會是他們會做的事(If his medical is
clean),而不是選有injury risk的JJ,不過Combine因素一加今年就不知道..較新或較小的
Scenario,前面做underslot使得安全牌Travis Bazzana掉得下來.而倒數48小時謠傳既使
Travis Bazzana掉下來也要選Nick Kurtz省錢,就看他們後面中意的人有多好..
Other notable guys:
1.Charlie Condon R/R OF/3B
Monster season (.433/.556/1.009), compact swing, plus-
plus in game power, hit premium Velocity. Can play corner OF or 3B.
Contact%/90th%EV/Chase%=80.9%/112mph/23%.
4.Chase Burns RHP
97-102mph fastball (Stuff+ 122, IVB 20+ inches), high three-quarters
slot, 70 grade Slider (Stuff+ 124, HB 8 inches) generates a lot of swing and
miss. Excellent performace and K% (100IP 62H 30BB/191SO). Transferred to Wake
Forest.
5.Jac Caglianone L/L 1B/LHP
80 row power, significantly cut down on strikeout rate this year.
(Zone Contact is 90% but Huge trace rate
https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2024/0605/CaglianoneCR.png
). ESPN Chase% heat map
looks all over the place. 97-100mph fastball. TJ in HS.
6.Hagen Smith LHP
94-100mph fastball (Stuff+ 116), Lower 3/4 slot. 70 grade
slider (Stuff+ 113, HB 5-6 inches). Excellent performace and K% (84IP 41H
34BB/161SO). TJ in HS.
Mock
BA:1205/0318/0404/0422/0517/0531/0617/0701/0708/0712
Jac Caglianone/Chase Burns/JJ Wetherholt/Travis
Bazzana/Hagen Smith/Jac Caglianone/Travis Bazzana/
Travis Bazzana/Hagen Smith/Travis Bazzana
MLB.com:1215/0327/0503/0517/0531/06070614/0621/0628/0705/0712/0714
Jac Caglianone/Chase Burns/Braden Montgomery/
Nick Kurtz/Braden Montgomery/Braden Montgomery/
Braden Montgomery/Jac Caglianone/Braden Montgomery/
Braden Montgomery/Nick Kurtz/Travis Bazzana
PG:0411 Nick Kurtz
KL:0515/0619/0711 Nick Kurtz/Nick Kurtz/Nick Kurtz
ESPN:0508/0529/0619/0712 Nick Kurtz/Jac Caglianone/Travis Bazzana/Travis
Bazzana
--
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推
07/14 18:30,
4月前
, 1F
07/14 18:30, 1F
※ 編輯: ThomasHSNU (111.71.95.102 臺灣), 07/14/2024 19:56:43
推
07/14 21:26,
4月前
, 2F
07/14 21:26, 2F
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