Re: 別用WAR看MVP票選吧

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)時間11年前 (2013/03/08 06:52)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串19/21 (看更多)

Dave Cameron今天有段話在講BR跟FG投手WAR的計算方式我覺得很一針見血 This is the thing that people get wrong about pitcher WAR the most. FIP-based WAR doesn’t measure anything that did not actually happen. It is not comprehensive in its measurements of things that did happen, but it also does not claim to be comprehensive. It is an incomplete measure of pitcher performance, but it exclusively measures events that demonstrably occurred. 很多人都搞錯了(BR在還原過去這方面做得比較好)。以FIP為基礎的WAR(FG版)並沒有放進任何不曾發生的原素。它並不能完整的反映發生過的每一件事，但它也從沒宣稱它做得到。它是一個不完整的投手估量系統，但它並不估量從未發生的事。 Using an RA based WAR and then making adjustments for assumed defensive contribution — as B-R does — makes that pitching WAR construct guilty of the thing that FIP-based WAR is most often incorrectly accused of doing. When you start making guesses about how much a pitcher or a fielder contributed to the results of their balls in play, then you are no longer measuring what actually happened. 以RA為基礎然後修正防守(BR版)才犯了這個大家都拿來指控FG版的錯。當你開始猜測哪些貢獻歸投手哪些歸防守者的時候，你才放進了從未發生的事情。 (你搞錯了，你全家都搞錯了) It is completely fair to criticize FIP-based WAR for not measuring everything that happens, much like it is fair to criticize current catcher defense ratings for not measuring everything that catchers do that impact run prevention. It is incorrect to state that FIP measures things that did not happen or represents a hypothetical. FIP constrains itself to only measuring things that we know were almost entirely dependent on solely the pitcher/hitter match-up. Starting at RA9 and working your way backwards from there introduces the hypotheticals, not the other way around. 你完全可以說FG版不完整，就像你可以說捕手的守備貢獻計算不完整一樣，但說FG放進沒發生的事情或者放進假設出來的情境就大錯特錯了。FIP反映的是目前我們所知幾乎只跟投手與打者有關的原素。從RA出發再一樣樣修正回去才真正設了一堆假設。 : 對我個人來說完全無法理解BR這樣做是為什麼，BR承認他們相信BABIP不受控制(在統計上 : 來看這沒有不承認的道理)，那麼這樣大費周章的校正到底所為何來呢？而且守備校正本 : 來就是爭議最多的地方，既然同樣是想還原不受守備影響的投手本身的能力，除非他今天 : 不相信BABIP不能被控制，不然這樣實在沒有道理 -- 我是人，我反核 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 68.61.37.218