Re: [情報] 一些消息
（lovemeteor板友翻譯）
1.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/january-monthly-147398697
20個中擷取幾個Gerald Bourguet有比較不尬聊有點消息的問答
Hooper Fidel on Discord asks: "Are the Suns the new Heat? After having success with lineups featuring current and former 2-way guys (Bouyea, Livers, Gillespie) and 2nd round picks (Oso, Sheer), are we now the franchise that is finding diamonds in the rough? And if so, how are they doing it?"
I mean...kinda? It's still a little early for me on Livers, and even Sheer and Oso to some extent, but I do think Fleming and Ighodaro will both pan out in time. And even if they're not "diamonds in the rough," finding capable NBA contributors in the second round of the draft, G League or a heap of undrafted players certainly isn't some easy feat.
Finding so many capable players on two-way contracts the last few years has been truly impressive, and for those wondering how Gregory seems to keep hitting on the margins, I keep going back to what he talked about during his introductory press conference last May.
While everyone was busy panicking over how he answered questions about his qualifications or how he didn't seem cut out for the job, Gregory detailed a core component of the Suns' infrastructure since last season, which is their amateur evaluation group...and the robust player development system they developed under Gregory's watch.
"This past year as the vice president of player programming, I also, in addition to that, was put in charge and oversaw our entire amateur evaluation group, which will then obviously lead to what we do in this year's draft," Gregory said. "In that, one of my other main duties there this past year was working with our young guys, in particular our rookies, in their transition to the NBA and making sure that they were doing the things they needed to get done."
Gregory went on to explain that once he had oversight over their amateur evaluation group, they rebuilt it with the help of Matt Tellem, who was in charge on the pro side. They built "complete alignment" between the two evaluation groups, creating databases to help them work more effectively together. With Gregory being promoted to GM, assistant GM Oronde Taliaferro took over the amateur evaluation group.
In other words: Gone are the James Jones days of barely having scouts or half-assing the draft. As I reported last March, the size of the Suns basketball ops team has more than tripled in size from the 14 members reported back in 2022, and a source who has more than a decade of experience in the league said Phoenix has "as big and robust a staff as anyone" in the league now.
In other words, if you actually do the work, hire the right people and trust them to do their jobs, you stand a much better chance of unearthing some gems with your developmental and scouting programs!
Discord 用戶 Hooper Fidel 提問：
「太陽隊是不是成了新的 Heat？在使用包含現役與前雙向合約球員（Bouyea、Livers、Gillespie），以及二輪選秀球員（Oso、Sheer）的陣容取得成功之後，我們是不是正在成為那種能從邊角料中挖到寶石的球隊？如果是的話，他們是怎麼做到的？」
Answer：我的意思是……某種程度上算是吧？對 Livers 我還是覺得有點太早下定論，而 Sheer 和 Oso 在某種程度上也是，但我確實認為 Fleming 和 Ighodaro 最終都會有所成就。即便他們未必真的是「被埋沒的鑽石」，能在二輪選秀、G League 或一大票落選球員中，找到能在 NBA 立足的輪換貢獻者，本來就不是件容易的事。
過去幾年，太陽隊在雙向合約上找到這麼多可用球員，真的非常令人印象深刻。至於為什麼 Gregory 總能在邊緣市場命中，我一直會回想到他去年五月上任記者會時提到的一件事。
當時，大家都忙著恐慌他對於自身資歷的回答，或覺得他看起來不適合這份工作時，Gregory 其實詳細說明了太陽隊自上季以來的一個核心基礎——業餘球員評估團隊（amateur evaluation group），以及在他主導下建立起來的完整球員養成系統。
「在過去這一年，作為球員培育副總裁（vice president of player programming），除了這個職務之外，我也被賦予全面負責並監督我們整個業餘球員評估團隊的責任，這自然會直接影響我們在今年選秀中的決策，」
Gregory 說道。「此外，我過去一年另一個主要工作，就是與年輕球員，特別是新秀，合作，協助他們順利過渡到 NBA，並確保他們完成該完成的事情。」
Gregory 接著說明，當他開始全面掌管業餘評估團隊後，他與負責職業球員評估的 Matt Tellem 一起重建了這個系統。他們讓兩個評估團隊達成「完全對齊」，並建立資料庫，讓雙方能更有效率地協作。隨著 Gregory 升任 GM，副總經理 Oronde Taliaferro 接手了業餘評估團隊。
換句話說：James Jones 時代那種幾乎沒有球探、選秀隨便應付的日子已經過去了。正如我去年三月所報導的，太陽隊籃球營運部門的人數，已經從 2022 年報導的 14 人，成長到現在的 三倍以上；而一位在聯盟有超過十年經驗的消息人士也表示，Phoenix 現在擁有「和聯盟任何球隊一樣龐大且完整的團隊」。
總而言之，如果你真的願意下功夫、聘請對的人，並信任他們把工作做好，那麼透過球員養成與球探體系挖掘出幾顆寶石的機率，自然會大大提高。
Gregg Collett on Patreon asks: "Trade related… if the Suns were to flip Jalen Green at/before the deadline, what do you think we could get & from who?"
This one I did want to answer, in a roundabout sort of way. I've already reported on this, but a Suns source informed Suns After Dark that in addition to Devin Booker being off limits, it is highly, highly unlikely that Jalen Green or Dillon Brooks will be going anywhere at this year's deadline.
And that was before owner Mat Ishbia came out himself and squashed those ridiculous Dillon Brooks-to-the-Lakers rumors.
Now, things can obviously change depending on who becomes available, what offers are on the table, etc., but the Suns absolutely love Brooks and what he's provided for their team on and off the court. Go back to those offseason pressers from Mat Ishbia, Brian Gregory and Jordan Ott, and the characteristics they described fit Dillon Brooks to a tee.
As for Green, he's still only 23, the Suns have been high on his growth potential and his fit next to Book, and they want him to get healthy first so they can see what they've got.
So as much as some Suns fans are already concerned Jalen Green is just Bradley Beal 2.0...patience. This guy is much younger than Beal, doesn't have the extensive injury history of Beal, and played 82 games in back-to-back seasons before this one. Hopefully this is just an unfortunate, ill-timed blip on Green's tenure in the Valley.
Patreon 用戶 Gregg Collett 提問：
「交易相關的問題……如果太陽隊在交易截止日前（或當天）把 Jalen Green 拿去換，你覺得能從誰那裡換到什麼？」
Answer：這題我其實是想回答的，只是會用比較迂迴的方式。這點我之前已經報導過了，但一名太陽隊消息人士曾向 Suns After Dark 透露，除了 Devin Booker 絕對是非賣品之外，Jalen Green 和 Dillon Brooks 在今年的交易截止日前『極度、極度不可能』被送走。
而且這還是在老闆 Mat Ishbia 親自出面，直接闢謠那些荒謬的「Dillon Brooks 會被交易到 Lakers」傳聞之前。
當然，事情仍可能隨著市場上出現什麼人選、桌上擺了哪些報價而有所改變，但太陽隊真的非常喜歡 Brooks，無論是他在場上還是場下帶來的影響。回頭看看休賽季 Mat Ishbia、Brian Gregory 和 Jordan Ott 的那些記者會，他們所描述的球隊特質，幾乎完全就是在形容 Dillon Brooks。
至於 Green，他現在也才 23 歲，太陽隊一直很看好他的成長潛力，以及他與 Book 搭檔後場的適配性，而且球隊希望他先恢復健康，好真正看清自己手中握的是什麼樣的球員。
所以，儘管有些太陽迷已經開始擔心 Jalen Green 只是 Bradley Beal 2.0……請多給一點耐心吧。這名球員比 Beal 年輕得多，沒有 Beal 那樣冗長的傷病史，而且在本季之前，他曾連續兩季 82 場全勤出賽。希望這只是 Green 在 Valley 生涯中，一次不幸、時機又很糟的短暫插曲。
Diello on Discord asks: "Do you think the Suns will be buyers, sellers or stand pat? What do you think they should do?"
I think they make a move of some sort. At the very least, it doesn't feel like Nick Richards is long for Phoenix, as a source told Suns After Dark that multiple teams have registered interest in the backup big who is currently out of Ott's rotation. Ochai Agbaji and a weak second-round pick wasn't enough value for Phoenix to pull the trigger yet, but there's a good chance something materializes in the coming weeks.
After that, I don't think they'll be buyers or sellers. I think they'll look to tweak and upgrade the roster where they can, but without draft capital, they can't go big-game hunting like we've seen in years past (and that's the advisable path right now anyway). Grayson Allen has also been good this season, and Royce O'Neale is posting career-best numbers, so there's a possibility that Phoenix values their vets and keeps them if the right offers don't come pouring in.
O'Neale feels more likely to be dealt, given his salary is more easily movable, his individual numbers are nice enough to intrigue some contender, and the fact that he's more expendable. After all, the Suns have been a whopping 10.4 points per 100 possessions better when he's off the court than when he's on it.
I think relatively standing pat is the way to go here. The Suns shouldn't be rushing this process, as they're well ahead of where most people expected them to be. They also shouldn't be complacent, and should see what offers are out there. But more than likely, the Suns will move Richards for a fringe rotation player and some second-round pick draft capital, maybe make an O'Neale and/or Allen trade, and that'll be it.
Discord 用戶 Diello 提問：
「你覺得太陽隊會成為買家、賣家，還是按兵不動？你認為他們應該怎麼做？」
我認為他們一定會做某種程度的動作。至少目前看起來，Nick Richards 很可能不會長久留在 Phoenix——一名消息人士向 Suns After Dark 透露，已經有多支球隊對這名目前被 Ott 移出輪換的替補中鋒表達興趣。先前用 Ochai Agbaji 加上一個價值不高的二輪籤，還不足以讓 Phoenix 點頭，但接下來幾週內，很有機會出現更實質的進展。
在那之後，我不認為他們會成為典型的買家或賣家。我覺得太陽隊會在能力範圍內微調並升級陣容，但在缺乏選秀資產的情況下，他們也不可能像過去幾年那樣進行「獵大咖」式的交易（而且就現階段來看，那其實也是比較明智的路線）。Grayson Allen 本季表現不錯，而 Royce O'Neale 則繳出生涯最佳數據，因此如果市場上沒有出現真正合適的報價，Phoenix 也可能選擇留下這些老將。
相較之下，O'Neale 感覺是更有可能被交易的人選，因為他的薪資更容易配平、個人數據夠亮眼，能吸引一些爭冠球隊，而且他的可替代性也比較高。畢竟，當他不在場上時，太陽隊每 100 回合淨勝對手 10.4 分，反而比他在場時更好。
整體來說，我認為相對按兵不動才是正確方向。太陽隊不該急著推進這個過程，因為他們目前的進度已經遠超多數人的預期；但他們也不該自滿，仍然應該觀察市場上有哪些可能性。最有可能的情境是：太陽隊送走 Richards，換回一名輪換邊緣球員與一些二輪選秀權資產，或許再處理一筆 O'Neale 和／或 Allen 的交易，然後就差不多收工了。
FREE AGENCY QUESTIONS
Bobby on Patreon asks: "Assuming CG keeps up his play after moving to the bench when Jalen Green comes back and I don’t see why not, do you think there’s a chance we could keep him on the team, or will his value be too high for us to realistically keep him? Also, what do you think that contract will look like?"
Answered this one a bit on our New Year's resolutions piece already, but to reiterate: Because the Suns have Gillespie's early Bird rights, he's eligible to re-sign with Phoenix for up to four years and $67 million. I'd be surprised if he got that full amount unless he totally cements himself as an undisputed starter and the Suns make some noise in the playoffs, but I'm not ruling it out either!
More than likely, I'd guess it's something in the 3-4 year range, around $8 million to $12 million annually. Again, we still need to see how the season plays out, because one hot streak or injury can obviously change everything. But as of right now, that's where I'd put his value.
It's also contingent on what the rest of the market looks like. Gillespie is an unrestricted free agent, so if some team comes swooping in with a big-time offer that Phoenix is unwilling to match, maybe they lose him. But Gillespie has iterated and reiterated that he loves Phoenix and wants to stay there. Given how well he's played for the Suns, it'd be shocking if these two sides don't get a new deal done quickly in the offseason.
He's boosted his value for sure, but the Suns still seem like they're in the driver's seat in terms of re-signing him this summer.
Patreon 用戶 Bobby 提問：
「假設 CG 在 Jalen Green 回歸、自己轉到替補之後仍能維持現在的表現（我看不出為什麼不行），你覺得太陽有機會把他留下來嗎？還是他的市場價值會高到我們根本留不住？另外，你覺得他的合約大概會長怎樣？」
Answer：我在新年新希望那篇已經稍微回答過這題了，但再重申一次：因為太陽握有 Gillespie 的 early Bird rights，他可以和 Phoenix 重新簽下一份最長 4 年、總值最高 6,700 萬美元的合約。除非他真的完全坐穩「無可爭議的先發」，而且太陽在季後賽打出一波聲勢，否則我會對他拿到滿額感到意外——但我也不會完全排除這個可能性。
比較合理的預期，大概會是3 到 4 年、年薪約 800 萬到 1,200 萬美元的區間。當然，還是得看整個賽季怎麼發展，因為一段火燙的表現或一個傷病，隨時都可能改變一切。不過就目前來看，這大概就是他現在的市場價值。
另外，這也取決於整體自由市場的狀況。Gillespie 是完全自由球員，如果有球隊突然丟出一份 Phoenix 不願意跟進的大約，那太陽確實有可能留不住他。但 Gillespie 已經一再強調他很喜歡 Phoenix，也想留在這裡。以他為太陽打出的表現來看，如果雙方在休賽季沒能很快談成一份新合約，那才真的會讓人震驚。
他的身價確實被大幅拉高了，但就今年夏天的續約主導權而言，太陽看起來仍然坐在駕駛座上。
Tristan on Patreon asks: "Jake Fischer reported last week that some teams are expecting Gillespie to command a contract similar to Ty Jerome (3Y for $27M) this coming offseason. If that's the case and we also want to re-sign Williams, who should also be commanding a decent contract if he keeps up -- the cap space is getting tight. I could see MW getting something close to Luke Kornet, Daniel Gafford, and Wendell Carter Jr., who are all between 10-13M a year. Even if you assume Nick Richards is gone, it
almost seems inevitable we'll need to either flirt with the 1st/2nd apron again or be offloading one of Royce or Grayson at the trade deadline for more expiring contracts to make room for re-signing CG and MW. Am I reading this situation right or did I miss something here?"
Another one we touched on with our New Year's resolutions! But just to answer your question here:
As it stands, the Suns are projected to have about $153.6 million on the books for next season between Booker, Green, Brooks, Allen, O'Neale, Maluach, Dunn and Fleming. Assuming they keep Ighodaro's non-guaranteed deal, that figure increases to $155.9 million. Unfortunately, the dead money owed to Bradley Beal ($19.4 million), Nassir Little ($3.1 million) and EJ Liddell ($706,898) spikes that number to $179.1 million.
The Suns will be able to go over the projected $166 million salary cap when re-signing their own players, but they'd only have about $31.6 million before the projected first tax apron and $44 million before the projected second apron. Phoenix's ample wiggle room shrivels up pretty quickly thanks to that dead money!
However, assuming Gillespie signs for something like $10 million annually, they'd still have about $21.6 million in space underneath that first apron for Williams' new contract. Williams is a restricted free agent, which gives Phoenix leverage in negotiations, but one complication to consider is the Suns would still have several roster spots to fill. For example, re-signing Jordan Goodwin, with as well as he's playing, just might not be doable if Phoenix hones in on Gillespie and Williams first (as they
should).
In order to keep future picks unfrozen and maintain trade flexibility, the Suns need to avoid the second tax apron as many times as they possibly can for the foreseeable future -- or at least until they're a legitimate contender again. But even though things can drastically change between now and the summer, it should be a top offseason priority for Phoenix to re-sign both Gillespie and Williams to fair extensions that don't break the bank or push the Suns back into the tax aprons. How they navigate
that limited wiggle room will be crucial.
Patreon 用戶 Tristan 提問：
「Jake Fischer 上週報導，有些球隊預期 Gillespie 在今年休賽季可能會拿到一份類似 Ty Jerome（3 年 2,700 萬美元） 的合約。如果真是這樣，而我們又想續留 Williams（如果他繼續這樣打，顯然也會要求一份不錯的合約），那薪資空間就會變得非常吃緊。我可以想像 MW 會拿到接近 Luke Kornet、Daniel Gafford、Wendell Carter Jr. 那種水準的合約，年薪大概都在 1,000–1,300 萬美元之間。
即便假設 Nick Richards 會離隊，看起來幾乎不可避免，我們要嘛又得去踩第一／第二層豪華稅線，要嘛就得在交易截止日前處理掉 Royce 或 Grayson 其中一人，換回更多到期合約，才能替續約 CG 和 MW 騰出空間。是我理解正確，還是我漏掉了什麼？」
Answer：這題我們其實也在「新年新希望」那篇文章裡稍微提過，不過這裡直接回答你的問題：
以目前狀況來看，太陽下季在 Booker、Green、Brooks、Allen、O'Neale、Maluach、Dunn 和 Fleming 身上的合約，帳面薪資大約是 1 億 5,360 萬美元。如果他們選擇保留 Ighodaro 那份非保障合約，這個數字會上升到 1 億 5,590 萬美元。
還有必須支付的死薪資：Bradley Beal（1,940 萬）、Nassir Little（310 萬） 和 EJ Liddell（706,898），這會讓總額直接飆升到 1 億 7,910 萬美元。
太陽在續簽自家球員時，可以超過預估的 1 億 6,600 萬美元薪資上限，但在第一層豪華稅線之前，他們大概只剩 3,160 萬美元的空間；在第二層豪華稅線之前，則約為 4,400 萬美元。由於這些死薪資的存在，Phoenix 原本還算充裕的操作空間，很快就被壓縮殆盡。
不過，如果假設 Gillespie 年薪約 1,000 萬美元，那在第一層豪華稅線之下，太陽仍然還有大約 2,160 萬美元可以用來談 Williams 的新合約。
Williams 是受限自由球員（RFA），這讓 Phoenix 在談判中握有一定優勢，但還有一個現實問題：太陽到時候仍有多個名額需要補齊。舉例來說，Jordan Goodwin 以目前的表現來看，如果太陽把優先順序放在 Gillespie 和 Williams 身上（而且他們確實應該這麼做），那麼續留 Goodwin 可能就不太現實了。
為了避免未來選秀權被凍結、並維持交易彈性，太陽在可預見的未來，必須盡可能避免踩到第二層豪華稅線——至少要等到他們再次成為真正的爭冠球隊為止。當然，從現在到夏天之間，變數仍然很多，但對 Phoenix 而言，在不爆表、不重新掉進豪華稅深淵的前提下，為 Gillespie 和 Williams 談成合理的續約，應該會是休賽季的最優先目標之一。
他們要如何在有限的操作空間中完成這件事，將會是關鍵中的關鍵。
Kai FZ on Discord asks: "Any thoughts on Goodwin, Bouyea and Livers' contract situations? I'm thinking in particular about Goody's deal becoming guaranteed on Jan. 10, and the fact that two-way players can't play in the playoffs."
It's still early, but as we wrote on Monday, a source confirmed to Suns After Dark that the Suns will fully guarantee Jordan Goodwin's contract before the Jan. 10 deadline. Cutting him just to save some measly space under the luxury tax would've been asinine, and it would've run counter to the way Mat Ishbia has operated as an owner. He wasn't going anywhere, and that was before he proceeded to hit a career-high eight 3-pointers against the best team in the NBA on Sunday.
Goodwin has brought his usual tenacity on the defensive end and offensive glass, but he's also provided an unexpected scoring (and even 3-point shooting!) punch off the bench. As long as the Suns don't reach into tax apron territory, they're fine, and guaranteeing Goodwin's contract won't do that anyway.
As for Jamaree Bouyea and Isaiah Livers, hopefully our latest Suns After Dark Film Session made this clear, but Bouyea looks like a legitimate NBA rotation player who deserves a full-length contract! As you noted, two-way players are not eligible to suit up in the postseason, so if Phoenix is still within striking distance when the time comes, he feels like a safe bet to secure their final roster spot.
Again, though: It's still early. Livers looked solid when he was healthy, and you never know who might hit the buyout market. Phoenix is in no rush to fill that spot, nor should they be. But as of now, it's hard to see anyone outworking Bouyea for that 15th roster spot.
Discord 用戶 Kai FZ 提問：
「對於 Goodwin、Bouyea 和 Livers 的合約狀況有什麼看法嗎？我特別在想 Goody 的合約會在 1 月 10 日轉為保障，以及雙向合約球員不能打季後賽這件事。」
現在談還算早，不過就如我們在週一寫過的，一名消息人士向 Suns After Dark 證實，太陽隊會在 1 月 10 日期限前，將 Jordan Goodwin 的合約完全轉為保障。如果只是為了省下那一點點奢侈稅空間就裁掉他，那簡直是愚蠢至極，也完全違背 Mat Ishbia 一貫的老闆作風。在他於週日對上全 NBA 最強球隊、投進生涯新高的 8 記三分球之前，他就已經不可能離隊了。
Goodwin 一如既往地在防守端與進攻籃板上展現韌性，同時也在替補端提供了出乎意料的得分火力（甚至還包含三分球！）。只要太陽隊沒有踩進稅線上限（tax apron）的區域，一切都沒問題，而保障 Goodwin 的合約本來就不會造成這個問題。
至於 Jamaree Bouyea 和 Isaiah Livers，希望我們最新一期的 Suns After Dark Film Session 已經說得很清楚了——Bouyea 看起來就是一名貨真價實的 NBA 輪換球員，值得一份正式合約！ 正如你提到的，雙向合約球員無法在季後賽出賽，所以如果 Phoenix 到時仍保有競逐機會，他看起來是最有機會拿下最後一個正式名單席位的人選。
不過還是要再說一次：現在還太早。Livers 在健康時的表現也相當穩定，而且你永遠不知道誰會進入買斷市場。Phoenix 並不急著填補那個名額，也不該急。但就目前來看，很難想像有人能在拚勁與表現上勝過 Bouyea，搶下那個第 15 人名單位置。
2.
Gambo：
我現在的預期是他會在 1 月中旬回歸，Jalen Green 會在 1 月中旬回來。他們非常、非常小心地避免讓他再次受傷。
他們非常小心地花費額外的時間，只為了確保他沒事。在這裡他必須達到 100% 的康復，這不是那種恢復到 85%、90% 或 95% 就可以回歸的事。
他們不想帶他回來後，又讓他承擔再次受傷的風險，這是他們承擔不起的。所以這是一次非常棘手的腿後腱（hamstring）傷勢。
他們原本很希望他能在 1 月初上場。所以我認為時間表大約變動了 10 天左右，大概 7 到 10 天。因此我現在的預期是 1 月中旬，你會看到 Jalen Green 上場。
所以你看他接下來的賽程，有人問我：你覺得他會在接下來對陣尼克隊的比賽上場嗎？我會說對尼克那場可能不會。但我覺得到了下週，你可以開始挑選下週的其中一場比賽並說：好，他會在那場比賽復出。
我不預期他能在尼克那場比賽上場。他們接著要開始客場之旅，那是一個六場比賽的東岸客場之旅，對吧？從 1 月 13 日週二開始。這在技術上我猜算是在 1 月中旬。這包括了邁阿密、底特律、紐約、布魯克林、費城、亞特蘭大
根據我聽到的消息，可以保險地說，在那段行程中的某個時間點，你會看到 Jalen Green 回歸。我不認為會拖到 25 號，因為那還得再等三週，那是太陽主場對邁阿密的比賽。
我相信會在客場之旅的某個地方他會回來。我沒有確切日期。我聽到的只是 1 月中旬左右，再強調一次，本來可能可以讓他早點回來，但只是為了確保他康復程度盡可能接近 100%，且不會再次弄傷腿後腱。
我沒有確切日期，所以別拿這個來要求我，但我認為你大約可以看向 19 號週一對布魯克林那場，大概在那附近。也可能稍微早一點，大約在 1 月 15、17、19 號左右。所以底特律、紐約、布魯克林，在那個區間，我預期你會看到 Jalen Green 回歸。
如果你讓他回來，假設你在 15 號對陣底特律時讓他復出——這只是我的推測——但在我心中，絕對會是這三場比賽的其中之一。假設他在 1 月 15 日回歸，這讓你在交易截止日前還有 1、2、3... 11 場比賽可以觀察，來判斷：好，我還需要什麼？我想要什麼？我要做任何變動嗎？
我認為太陽隊會非常有耐心。我不認為他們會做什麼大動作。但在這 11 場比賽中，你可能會說：好吧，我們是否能再找一個角色球員來這裡或那裡幫忙？讓 Jalen Green 打這幾場，能給太陽一個很好的判斷基準。
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Sent from JPTT on my iPhone
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