2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW

看板Rays作者abc12812時間16年前 (2009/02/04 21:34)推噓8(8推 0噓 7→)

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Sunday, February 01, 2009 by Baseball Savant The thing I remember most about the Rays before the 2008 season began was listening to Buster Olney on ESPN Radio one morning talking about how he could see the Rays winning the AL East. At the time I thought he was nuts. Sure the Rays were shaping up to be a pretty good club, but I thought their real breakout would be 2009 or 2010. The Rays thought otherwise and proved Olney's premonition correct. The Rays had a tremendous season in 2008. They won 97-games, the AL East and the AL en route to the World Series where they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in 5-games. I thiny any discussion of the Rays is always going to center around the supposed "blueprint" they've somehow showed that works against big market teams. Unfortunately this theory has about as many holes in as can possibly be tolerated. Let's think about it for a minute. They got Kazmir in a huge ripoff of the Mets. They took Carlos Pena off the scrap heap. Turned a former #1 pick into Matt Garza. Had a 16th round pick (James Shields) turn into gold. Signed Iwamura from Japan, got JP Howell from Kansas City in the Joey Gathright deal. Got Dan Wheeler for Ty Wiggington. Took Grant Balfour off the scrap head and traded for Chad Bradord. Combine that with a TON of first round draft picks that have worked out (Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford & Price) and you have the Rays blueprint. The problem is that this a blueprint that is almost unsustainable. Who bats 1.000 with first round draft picks? Who takes Bryan Bullington over BJ Upton? Who now is going to trade a Scott Kamir for Victor Zambrano? At the same time you have to give credit where credit is due. Pulling guys like Pena, Iwamura, and Balfour off of scrap heaps was amazing. Dealing Young for Garza, Wiggington for Wheeler and Gathright for Howell were brilliant moves in retrospect and let's not forget how big of a deal Eric Hinske was for Tampa Bay early in 2008! The guy hit like a machine and really propelled the Rays offense early on. The Rays also brought in Gabe Gross to play some RF last season in a deal with Milwaukee. By all accounts GM Andrew Friedman did a tremendous job assembling the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. This year he's pulled some more moves. The base of the team is pretty much exactly the same but there are some subtle moves that could pay big dividends for Tampa Bay in 2009. Signing Pat Burrell to play DH was a fantastic move. Burrell becomes automatically the best DH Tampa has ever had. He brings to the team tremendous plate discipline and the ability to hit 30-35HR per year. Friedman dealt an extra arm in Edwin Jackson to the Tigers for RF Matt Joyce. Joyce potentially has 30HR power and can play a staggeringly good defense in RF. Friedman did a good job of getting his pitching staff fortified too. David Price will now enter the rotation as a full time starter, taking over where Edwin Jackson left off. Clearly Price has the talent to be a dominant #1 starter in the major leagues and gaining an arm like that only can improve the ballclub. In the pen, Friedman didn't rest on his laurels of already having the best bullpen in the majors. He added guys like Joe Smith, Brian Shouse and Lance Cormier to provide some depth to go along with dominant pitchers such as Grant Balfour, JP Howell and Dan Wheeler. So that is sort of the blueprint Tampa is going under. It's really a great blueprint and I think that is the real story of Tampa in 2008. They busted out earlier than I expected, but as all Oakland A's fans know, the real test comes with repeatability and let's not forget that Tampa didn't come home with the prize. Last year was an insane year for Tampa. They went from worst to first and got to the World Series, but now is when the grind for elite status begins and if the Rays keep winning then they won't have #1 draft picks to replenish their system. At some point if they keep payroll stagnant they'll have to keep finding diamonds in the rough and making their draft choices even more shrewdly because the obvious pick won't be there. They drafted SS Tim Beckham last season with the #1 overall pick, but that might be their last #1 pick for quite awhile. Will this blueprint cash in on what was missed last season? Let's take a look. 2009 RAYS STARTING LINEUP C-Dioner Navarro: 295/349/407; 7HR, 27-2B, 54RBI, 12.6AB/BB, 0SB, 98OPS+ It's odd to think Navarro is just going to be 25-years old because it seems he's been around forever. Maybe that's me being a Yankees fan and knowing about him since he's come up through the minor leagues, but still. If you can believe from the above stat line, Navarro was actually an All-Star last season. This had more to do with the fact that Posada & Martinez were hurt and Varitek is just a shell of his former self, but for now, Navarro is not only an All-Star catcher but also a championship caliber catcher if you believe in that sort of thing when a team makes it to the World Series. Last season Navarro's offense was carried by his .321 BABIP which drove his batting average to almost .300. For his career to date his established BABIP is only .292 so he was well over his previous production. The average is going down meaning the ISO OBP% is going down too, but he did thump a few more doubles last season so there might be a little more power to come. Assuming Victor Martinez & Jorge Posada can't catch anymore, is it too much to say that Navarro might be the 2nd best catcher in the AL behind Joe Mauer? Matt Wieters isn't up yet and Saltalamacchia hasn't established himself in Texas yet either. It's a helluva positional advantage to have. 1B-Carlos Pena: 347/377/494; 31HR, 24-2B, 102RBI, 5.1AB/BB, 1SB, 127OPS+ First half OPS was .778. Second half OPS was .978! Pena got off to a brutal start but salvaged a season by becoming a monster in the 2nd half. When you take a look at Pena's season, there isn't much difference in 2008 as there was in 2007 as far as the peripheral stats go except for one category: HR/F ratio. In 2007 when Pena went bezerk at the plate, 30% of his fly balls went out of the yard. In 2008, only 19% did. What is troubling for Pena is that from 2004-2006, his HR/F% were 18%, 17% & 18% respectively. In 2007 it was 30% but in 2008 it was back to 19%. So what number looks like the outlier? Even in his monster 2nd half, Pena only had a 22% HR/F ratio so even then it wasn't back up to 30%. Remember too that 2007 was Pena's age-29 season. For the most part, Pena is probably a .260-.270 hitter with serious power who has incredible plate discipline. He's also a helluva defensive 1B. You can certainly make the argument he's the best defensive 1B in the AL outside of Lyle Overbay. If Pena can avoid a 1st half mess again, then he's easily a .250-40-110 hitter in the middle of a very good lineup. 2B-Akinori Iwamura: 274/349/380; 6HR, 30-2B, 48RBI, 9.0AB:BB, 8SB, 92OPS+ I know I'm only remembering Iwamura's play against the White Sox and conveniently forgetting his performance against Boston & Philadelphia, but wow did it seem like this kid came to dominate during the playoffs! In reality, Iwamura is just an OK player. Offensively he's below average although he does have some doubles power and pretty good strikezone judgement. On the other hand, his OPS+ of 92 puts him below average offensively. He's solid defensively at 2B, but he isn't tremendous either. He strikes out a ton and doesn't make the best of baserunning plays. It's sort of hard to figure. On the one hand when you watch him play he seems like a sparkplug. On the other, his stats say he's not all that good. What's interesting is that there is some semblance of a skill set here but for whatever reason there is no real consolidation of skills. He is a foreign import and maybe he needs a couple of years to adjust? I like what I see when I watch him play but when you take that out of the equation....well.....it's not that good. 3B-Evan Longoria: 272/343/531; 27HR, 31-2B, 85RBI, 9.7AB:BB, 7SB, 125OPS+ Longoria finished as the AL Rookie of the Year and actually finished 11th in the MVP voting. He's just 22 by the way! Let's get the defense out of the way first. He's great. He'll be a contender for a gold glove at the hot corner for years to come. His RZR (revised zone rating) was the best in the AL for 3B with at least 1,000 innings played. It was tied with Scott Rolen so you know Longoria can pick it at 3B. Offensively, it sound ridiculous but there is room for the guy to get better. He struckout a little too much meaning his contact rate could get better and will as he gets more selective at the plate. As odd as it seems, lefties ate him up besides him being a right-handed hitter. He didn't hit all that great at home which is odd because hitters are usually creatures of habit and routine so being at home should make Longoria more comfortable in the future. Longoria also had a fairly awful September which sort of played its way into the playoffs. He did well in the ALDS & ALCS but he hit a woeful .050/.050/.050 in the World Series! I don't see how he's not the 2nd best 3B in the AL behind A-Rod at this point and he might be closing fast. If he makes some adjustments, Longoria could go .300-40-120 and if the Rays win the AL East again, you're looking at the next AL MVP. SS-Jason Bartlett: 286/329/361; 1HR, 25-2B, 37RBI, 20.6AB:BB, 20SB, 82OPS+ Defense is the name of his guy's game. The 20 steals is nice but a guy needs to steal at a 75% success rate to help a team. Bartlett was caught 6 times last season so his steal rate was just 77% so he's even teetering on being not useful there. In all honestly, I'm not entirely sure what Tampa Bay gets from Bartlett that it couldn't get from Ben Zobrist at SS? Sure Reid Brignac looks like a bust at this point, but Zobrist actually had a better RZR than Bartlett at defense with a lot more pop in his bat. Zobrist is also a switch-hitter who can hit righties, something Bartlett struggles mightily to do. The more I look it at the more I wonder why Bartlett is playing? He can't do much with the bat and while his defense is pretty good, he's not Ozzie Smith either. LF-Carl Crawford: 273/319/400; 8HR, 12-2B, 57RBI, 14.8AB:BB, 25SB, 87OPS+ From 2002-2007, Crawford saw an increase in his OPS+ in every single year! That's pretty amazing, but last season finger & hamstring problems held him up and his OPS+ dropped to a terrible 87. Because of his injuries, his power and speed were decimated and we get the batting line that you see above. I'm not really sure what to think about Crawford. Because of his speed, he's a pretty exciting player and he plays a TERRIFIC defensive LF. On the other hand, you don't need great defense to play LF and that positon is usually reserved for guys who hit a ton. Because of BJ Upton in CF, the Rays can get away with having Crawford in LF, but he does have a pretty good skill set. For the most part he's a 4-tool player with all the tools except power, but then again because of his doubles and triples potential, he can slug in the high-.400s. I'm kind of on the fence with Crawford because he seems more like a fantasy player, but I'm warming up to him. He'll only be 27-years old so he's just now hitting his prime years! That could get scary. CF-B.J. Upton: 273/383/401; 9HR, 37-2B, 67RBI, 5.5AB:BB, 44SB, 107OPS+ Shoulder injury was the reason Upton hit 24HR in 2007 but followed up with just 9 in 2008. The problem is that he had surgery in November and now it looks like he won't be playing on opening day for Tampa. Upton is just going to be 24-years old and I really can't imagine what the Pirates think seeing him blossom the way he has in Tampa Bay while Bryan Bullington sucks. Still, 2009 might be a wash for Upton. If the shoulder stuff lingers then his power might not be 100% once again in 2009 although in the 2008 post-season it didn't seem to be hampered. Upton plays a good defensive CF and has plate discipline to spare. He strikesout a TON although that did improve from 2007 to 2008. Upton has all the skills to breakout and I don't think seeing him with multiple 40-40 seasons is completley out of the question. If it wasn't for the shoulder, he might be playing for the title as best player in the game given his position, but it might have to wait a year before we see Upton finally put it all together. RF-Matt Joyce: 252/339/492; 12HR, 16-2B, 33RBI, 7.8AB:BB, 0SB, 116OPS+ The Rays thought they didn't have a regular RF in Gabe Gross so used an extra part, Edwin Jackson, to use as trade bait with the Tigers to land minor league prospect Matt Joyce. Last season was Joyce's first taste of major league pitching and he aquitted himself very nicely. The Rays are hoping Joyce can be a lefty power bat. Known to have gap-to-gap power in the minor leagues, Joyce really stepped up his game and provided power in Comerica where power pretty much goes to die. Trading in Comerica for the Trop and getting regular playing time could mean possibly 30HR for Joyce in a Rays uniform. He's an outstanding defensive player giving the Rays the best outfield defense in the major leagues potentially. Just 24-years of age heading in 2009, Joyce has a couple of years of consolidation before he enters his prime sesaons. By all accounts this was an incredible move on the part of GM Andrew Friedman. DH-Pat Burrell: 250/367/507; 33HR, 33-2B, 86RBI, 5.3AB:BB, 0SB, 125OPS+ Burrell's last 4 years of OPS+ have been 128, 122, 127 & 125. That's consistency so you know what you are going to get from Burrell if you are a Rays fan. Essentially the Rays are going to get 30HR, 100RBI, and an OPS+ of 125. That makes Burrell the best DH the Rays have had in their history and he's only been the DH for about 5-minutes. It actually works for Burrell too because he may be the worst LF in baseball defensively. In a reversal of "If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them", Burrell actually beat Tampa in the 2008 World Series and now finds himself playing for them. I'm a huge fan of exploiting the DH position because it's a market inefficiency that only relies on a player's ability to hit without having to take his defense into consideration. The Rays are doing just that with Burrell. Having him, Pena, Longoria, Upton & Joyce in the lineup give Tampa 5 players with the potential to hit 30HR each. The Rays ranked 4th last season in HR hit but with this kind of arsenal, they may get even better! 2009 RAYS BENCH C-Shawn Riggans: 222/287/407; 6HR, 7-2B, 24RBI, 11.3AB:BB, 0SB, 80OPS+ IF-Willy Aybar; 253/327/410; 10HR, 17-2B, 33RBI, 10.1AB:BB, 2SB, 92OPS+ IF-Ben Zobrist: 253/339/505; 12HR, 10-2B, 30RBI, 7.9AB:BB, 3SB, 118OPS+ OF-Gabe Kapler: 301/340/498; 8HR, 17-2B, 38RBI, 17.6AB:BB, 3SB, 117OPS+ OF-Gabe Gross: 238/336/414; 13HR, 16-2B, 40RBI, 6.9AB:BB, 4SB, 96OPS+ OF-Justin Riggiano: 197/247/329; 2HR, 4-2B, 7RBI, 19.0AB:BB, 2SB, 50OPS+ Ruggiano is the one out of the group that most likely won't be a part of the team when camp breaks. I like this bench to be honest. Aybar is a pretty good utility infielder and I already think Zobrist should be the starting SS for this team. The Rays did a pretty good job of going out and getting OF Gabe Kapler to shore up the bench a bit. If BJ Upton isn't going to start the season on time, the Rays could use Kapler in CF or slide Crawford over to CF and slot Kapler in LF. Lefties tear Gross up, but he can hit righties really well so he can be a pretty good platoon outfielder and pinch hitter off the bench for the Rays. What's interesting about this bench too is the amount of plate discipline it has. Except for Kapler, everyone who is likely to make the bench for Tampa can draw a walk effectively. Heck, two players had OPS+ numbers closing in on 12o (Zobrist & Kapler). Obviously you don't want to see your starting players go down but Tampa Bay could probably weather a minor injury or two. I'd like to see Zobrist get a chance. OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE TAMPA BAY OFFENSE? There is so much potential in this lineup. With Longoria, Pena, Joyce, Upton, Crawford and Burrell, there is a muderers row of players! What is somewhat interesting about the Rays is there 1-2 punch at the top of the order. If you think the guys I just mentioned are more middle of the order guys, then you are left with Navarro, Iwamura, and Bartlett as your 1-2-9 hitters. Having Bartlett at #9 is a no-brainer, but who leads off for this team? I think Crawford is more of a #6-#7 hitter and if you put Iwamura at #2 then where does that leave the #1 place in the order? Last year Iwamura & Crawford went 1-2 in the lineup, but I don't know. I don't mind Iwamura hitting 2nd but if there is anything missing with the Rays it's a leadoff hitter really. This is certainly nitpicking and a lot of people will tell you that lineup construction doesn't mean a whole lot, but there is something here that doesn't make for a 100% optimal lineup in Tampa. While the Yankees have Damon-Jeter and the Red Sox have Pedroia-Youkilis, the Rays have Iwamura-Crawford and they could be better served other places in the lineup in my opinon. Would hitting Upton leadoff be such a horrible idea? My guess is that Tampa goes: Iwamura-Crawford-Upton-Pena-Longoria-Burrell-Joyce-Navarro-Bartlett which is a very formidable lineup. I don't think we'll look back on 2009 if Tampa win and blame the offense. It's primed and ready to go! 2009 RAYS STARTING ROTATION #1-Scott Kazmir: 152.3IP, 7.3H/9, 9.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 1.4HR/9, 1.267WHIP, 127ERA+ A lefty with 92-mph gas who is just filthy. Kazmir has evolved into a 2-pitch pitcher, working off his fastball and changeup with the occasional slide piece thrown in to keep hitters honest. What is pretty amazing is how many pitchers can walk 4+ per game and give up 1+ HR per game and still manage an ERA+ of 127!? Kamzir is a legitimate ace with the skill set to contend for the title of best pitcher in the game. Even though he did make it over 200IP in 2007, elbow problems at the beginning of the year derailed his season totals for 2008. It's interesting to note that Kazmir is going to be 25-years old in 2009 while David Price will be 23. That's only 2-years difference yet Kazmir has pitched 5 seasons already. Even with Price on the team, Kazmir has by far and away the best stuff on the roster. The big problem is that he simply can't cut down his pitches. If Kazmir could half his walk rate he'd be almost superhuman on the mound. He's still so young so he could have a couple of consolidation years left in him, but at some point you wonder when he's going to put it all together. #2-James Shields: 215IP, 8.7H/9, 6.7K/9, 4.0K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, 1.153WHIP, 125ERA+ Shields put up almost a carbon copy of his 2007 season in 2008. You can't really say Shields is a one-year wonder now that he's got two years under his belt. Shields isn't overaly dominant. His average fastball is 90.4mph, but he has a 4-pitch arsenal that he pulls the string on almost anytime he wants to. He works mostly off a fastball, cutter, changeup trio but he'll show a curveball every now and again. His control is pinpoint but he also has stellar command to go along with it. He's thrown 215IP the last couple of seasons and given this stuff/command, you'd have to at least put him into the discussion as a #2 starter. Last season he started 33 games and threw 3,123 pitches. That's 94-95 pitches per game or 14.5/IP. If he averaged 6.5IP/GS then he could get at least 1-more inning's worth of work pushing his average pitches/G up to 109-110. That's an extra 33IP on top of his 215 making it 248IP per year for him. Could he handle that? I don't know but at some point you take the reins off a pitcher who has established a workload the way Shields has the last two seasons. If he pitches close to 250IP with 7K/9 and 1.7BB/9 then you are looking at a borderline #1 starter. #3-Matt Garza: 184.7IP, 8.3H/9, 6.2K/9, 2.2K:BB, 2.9BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.240WHIP, 118ERA+ Solid debut for Garza in his first time role of regular major league starter. I don't care what Twins Nation says, they got hosed on the Matt Garza for Delmon Young deal. Plain and simple. I've read reports where Garza made adjustments in 2008 that favored a little more control rather than striking people out so if you are wondering why that K/9 isn't as high as his minor league numbers would indicate, there is your answer. Garza did make some adjustments back to strikeouts though. In his first 8 starts of 2008, Garza fanned only 3.9 hitters per 9IP. In his last 22 starts, he upped that rate to 7.0/9IP! He had a nerve problem that forced him to miss 3 starts, but you can't really argue with the numbers here. If his last 22 starts are any guide and if he keeps getting better with a more consistent feel for his pitches, why couldn't he push that K/9 up to 7.5-7.8? This guy looks all the way solid to me! #4-Andy Sonnanstine: 193.3IP, 9.9H/9, 5.8K/9, 3.4K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, 1.288WHIP, 102ERA+ Sonnanstine is actually a pretty sweet pitcher when you look at his skill set. He's got great command and doesn't give up many bombs, but he doesn't strike a ton of hitters out so the upside is limited. That H/9IP would look better but his BABIP was .312 which was above league average. The big problem is that Sonnanstine is relying completely on his guile. His average fastball sat at 87mph last season, which coming from a righty is well below average. He throws up to 5 pitches for strikes, but I don't know. A few more strikeouts, a few more groundballs and who know what can happen? With Price in the mix, Sonnanstine is nothing more than a #4-#5 starter, but when you can get 200IP out of guy that is going to keep you in games because he doesn't walk anyone then that's a great asset to have in your rotation. Sonnanstine will only be 26-years old this season so there is certainly time. #5-David Price: 14IP, 5.8H/9, 7.7K/9, 3.0K:BB, 2.6BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 0.929WHIP, 230ERA+ Here comes the ringer! Before we get ga-ga over those numbers, remember that Price's BABIP in those 14IP was a ridiculous .225. Price works off a fastball-slider-changeup arsenal although he barely used his change in the majors last season. He pumps his fastball at 94-95mph as a lefty and in reality it might only be a matter of time before he is the #1 starter, relegating Scott Kazmir to #2 status. It's a good problem to have if you are Tampa Bay. There really isn't a knock on Price at this point. He's a good kid from Vanderbilt with tremendous makeup. He blew through the SEC and he blew through the minor leagues on his way to Tampa Bay. He's a 6-6 lefty who throws in the mid-90s with great control of all his pitches. Price even pitched in the ALCS and World Series where he did a great job. He had a rough spot in Game 2 of the World Series but the Rays were up 4-0 in that game and the 2 runs Price gave up were inconsequential. In postseason play he allowed just 2 hits and struckout 8 batters in 5.7IP! The only real knock for this guy is going to be his durability and health. He only threw about 130IP last season and 110 of those were in the minor leagues. Expecting 30+ starts from him and 180-200IP might be too much too soon for the guy. SP-Jason Hammel: 78.3IP, 9.5H/9, 5.1K/9, 1.3K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 1.3HR/9, 1.506WHIP, 97ERA+ SP-Jeff Niemann: 16IP, 10.1H/9, 7.9K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 1.7HR/9, 1.625WHIP, 88ERA+ OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE RAYS ROTATION? It's simply another dominating starting rotation in the AL East. The one thing that bothers me just a bit is that the Rays really don't have a #1 starter. Kazmir is certainly a #1 starter in "stuff", but his durability is always going to be a factor it seems. If he can go 200+IP then this argument becomes a non-issue but if there is a knock on this rotation, it's that they don't have a real stopper at the top. They have some candidates in Kazmir, Price and even Garza; all have the goods to be a #1, but I think Garza & Price are still a bit too young and Kazmir dealt with injury problems yet again. Best case is that this rotation dominates because it simply has too much talent not too. Worst case is that Kazmir has injury issues and Price goes about 120IP. That would be tough because you'd have a lot of the responsibilities thrust upon Shields, Sonnanstine and Garza with a couple of fill ins. I'm not sure Hammel & Niemann are going to be great and Wade Davis and Jake McGee probably aren't ready just yet. Another factor to consider is how much better the rest of the AL East got in relation to Tampa Bay. The Yankees got CC Sabathia & AJ Burnett and also get a healthy Chien-Ming Wang back in 2009 with Joba Chamberlain at least starting the season healthy. Those are 4 starters the Rays didn't have to compete with last season. The Red Sox signed Brad Penny & John Smoltz while also having Clay Buchholz & Michael Bowden waiting to make an impact. Those are 4 pitchers Tampa didn't face last season either. Don't get me wrong. This is a great rotation to have, but there are some questions marks that should possibly be concerning for the Rays down the road. If this was any other division in baseball, it wouldn't really matter, but because Tampa plays in the same division as the Yankees & Red Sox, it changes things dramatically when trying to stay and keep being competitive. 2009 RAYS BULLPEN CL-Troy Percival: 45.7IP, 5.7H/9, 7.5K/9, 1.4K:BB, 5.3BB/9, 1.8HR/9, 1.226WHIP, 98ERA+ RP-Dan Wheeler: 66.3IP, 6.0H/9, 7.2K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.0BB/9, 1.4HR/9, 0.995WHIP, 142ERA+ LP-J.P. Howell: 89.3IP, 6.2H/9, 9.3K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.131WHIP, 200ERA+ RP-Grant Balfour: 58.3IP, 4.3H/9, 12.7K/9, 3.4K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 0.891WHIP, 288ERA+ RP-Chad Bradford: 59.3IP, 9.0H/9, 2.6K/9, 1.1K:BB, 2.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 1.247WHIP, 212ERA+ RP-Joe Nelson: 54IP, 7.0H/9, 10.0K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.185WHIP, 213ERA+ RP-Juan Salas: 6.3IP, 7.1H/9, 11.4K/9, 2.0K:BB, 5.7BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 1.421WHIP, 63ERA+ RP-Lance Cormier: 71.7IP, 9.8H/9, 5.8K/9, 1.4K:BB, 4.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 1.563WHIP, 113ERA+ LP-Brian Shouse: 51.3IP, 8.1H/9, 5.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 2.5BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.169WHIP, 153ERA+ According to The Hardball Times's WPA (Wins Probability Added), the Rays had the best bullpen in the majors last season. They bring back the same pen although they've added guys like Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier and Brian Shouse to the mix. All are good pick-ups but it creates a log jam in the pen. The closer, Troy Percival, is the worst reliever on the team! How can a guy who gives up 2 bombs per 9IP and walks 5 per 9IP hold down a closer's job? It would seem putting in Percival is pouring gas on an already raging fire! When you think about the pen, you know that Howell, Bradford, Balfour, Wheeler and Nelson are automatic. That leaves only 2 spots. One is going to Percival when he's healthy because he's the closer leaving only one which I'm guessing goes to Shouse because he's left handed and JP Howell owns both righties and lefties. That leaves both Salas and Cormier out in the cold but it also doesn't allow room for a guy like Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann to be a long man out of the pen in preparation for spot starts when the Rays will need them. Even so this is a NASTY pen. Howell & Balfour and downright FILTHY. Wheeler & Nelson are very solid if not as brutal on opposing hitters as Balfour & Howell. That leaves Chad Bradford who is effective in his own right along with LOOGY Brian Shouse. The closer's spot is Percival's but in all reality the big guy is going to be on the DL a bit so the closer's role probably falls to Dan Wheeler in that instance. Wheeler had 13 saves last season in Percival's absence. This is a great bullpen. The log jam creates quite a bit of depth with Cormier, Salas and Hammel ready to step in when needed. Still, I don't see how this pen doesn't shorten games to at least 6IP or even possibly 5IP to be honest. There isn't a weak link except for Percival and if the game is on the line I don't mind putting anyone in there except for maybe Shouse becasue if the game is on the line with a lefty up, I'd rather have JP Howell facing them down than Shouse. That's 6 pitchers you can put into high leverage situations at any time. Good grief that's awesome! OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 RAYS The AL East is simply going to be a blood bath. I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm predicting that the Rays will finish in 3rd place in the AL East for 2009. That they'll win 90-games in my opinion is a no-brainer. Hell, if they won 93-94 games it still might only be good enough for 3rd place in the East. I think the Rays will score runs and I think they'll do a great job at preventing runs, but so goes for the Yankees & Red Sox too. One thing that really helped Tampa along in 2008 was New York being horribly down and the Red Sox running into some bad luck without having Josh Beckett healthy for almost the entire season. At this point both New York & Boston look ready to go and Tampa won't have that ace up their sleeve in 2009. They'll be an excellent baseball team and in reality right now they probably are one of the top-5 teams in the majors, but the problem is that 2 other teams in that top-5 play in the same division as Tampa Bay! Third place! Wow. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3